WR · ATL · GWTTKB

Drake London — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 16.82 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 17.4, usage worth 15.9.

25 years old · 4 seasons of experience · 2022 draft class

Updated 2026-08-16 · free, no account, no paywall
Every figure below comes from our database. Where a stat is not held, the row is absent rather than zero.
ADP 17.4
Consensus across 4 books, standard deviation 1.5, 3.4 picks between cheapest and priciest. Cheapest on underdog, priciest on sleeper.
SLEEPER15.4
ESPN18.8
YAHOO18.1
UNDERDOG21.3
CBS17.3
FFA20

Draft-room facts

Goes aroundRound 2, pick 5 in a 12-team draft
Positional rankWR7
Bye week11
ADP standard deviation1.5 picks

What we project for 2026

Our board has him at 245.2 points, 15 per game — 88.8 catches, 1,132 yards, 7.2 TDs. That is WR2, 20 overall.

The range runs from a floor of 9 points per game to a ceiling of 23.6, with the median at 15. Boom rate 57%, bust rate 40%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.

He goes at 17.4 on consensus and our board has him 20. Those agree, so there is no market disagreement to exploit. The question is whether you want the profile, not whether it is mispriced.

Our written view

the problem was never volume, it's quarterback play. Career yards-per-target has never cleared 8.2 in any season, well below the other elite names in this range (8.9-9.7), despite plenty of raw targets — read as a hard ceiling that won't move until Atlanta's QB situation genuinely upgrades (currently Tua or a rookie coming off his third ACL tear).

buy · medium conviction · 2026-08

The offense he plays in, 2026

Atlanta Falcons returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing hc, oc. Michael Penix Jr at quarterback, Kevin Stefanski as head coach, Tommy Rees calling it. The offense projects to 32.8 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 27.2 rushes.

In: Tua Tagovailoa (qb2), Olamide Zaccheaus (wr2), Zachariah Branch (wr3), Jahan Dotson (wr4), Brian Robinson Jr (rb2), Tyler Goodson (rb3), Carter Nathan (rb4), Austin Hooper (te2). Out: Kirk Cousins (qb2), Darnell Mooney (wr2), David Sills V (wr4), Ray-Ray McCloud III (wr5), Dylan Drummond (wr6), Khadarel Hodge (wr7), Tyler Allgeier (rb2), Nathan Carter (rb3), Charlie Woerner (te2).

His own projected target share for 2026 is 24.2%, with a bear case of 23.1% and a bull case of 25.1% and a full range of 22.2% to 26.3%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.

The projected target split across the offense:

Drake London 24.2%
Kyle Pitts16.9%
Bijan Robinson14.5%
Austin Hooper10.3%
Zachariah Branch8.4%
Olamide Zaccheaus7.4%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

What the offense looks like: Bijan Robinson has been able to produce redardless of poor QB play in ATL. Drake London has had flashes & the talent is clearly there, but needs better QB play. Perhaps Penix Jr fully recovers from 2nd ACL tear & proves he is the franchise QB. OR there is a SMALL chance Tua turns his career around and can elevate this offense. Unlikely. Despite what most fans think, the falcons have not committed to a starting QB, there is a decent chance their franchise QB is neither Penix or Tua.

Key additions: Tua Tagovailoa signed on 1 year veteran minumum deal. WR Jahan Dotson 2 year $15M deal. TE Austin Hooper 1 year deal to back up Pitts. WR Olamide Zaccheaus returns to ATL. OL Jawaan Taylor signed 1 year deal. Zachariah Branch WR Georgia 3rd Round draft pick.

Key departures: Drew Dalman (starting Center) left to Chicago Bears & RT Kaleb McGary retired aftr missing entire 2025 season. Elijah Wilkinson Starting RT left in free agency. Kirk Cousins left to Las Vegas. Tyler Allgeier left to Arizona. WR Darnell Mooney released after regression & heads to NY Giants.

Notes: Falcons signed Tua Tagovailoa after release from Dolphins. Penix may be ready week 1 but possible he is no longer the starter. This will be determined in camp. New HC: Kevin Stefanski from Browns. Tommy Rees is new OC. Followed Stefanski from Cleveland. Bijan & London are core offensive players. Pitts wants long term exension, but was franchise tagged (could be traded). Branch round 3 Georgia WR adds speed & could produce early. Brian Robinson Jr is a valuable handcuff for Bijan Robinson but shouldn't have stand alone value. London clear WR1, Zaccheaus returns in free agency. Jahan Dotson (former 1st round pick) added in free agency. Zachariah Branch could see large volume as a rookie if develops quickly. QB play may still hold team back. Olamide Zaccheaus is a player that should be rostered in all leagues as a real sleeper. Highly productive player in Chicago that COULD pop early if Branch is a slow bloomer & Dotson is a nothing burger.

How the volume number was reached: Same QB Michael Penix Jr returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (32.1 att/g); Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 32.8 att/g; New OC Tommy Rees — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Kevin Stefanski.

How that share projection was built

29 historical comps for WRs age ~25, prior share 28.1%, same team, OC change. Distribution: median 23.8%, p25-p75 [21.0%, 26.1%], tails [18.6%, 29.3%]. Closest comps: Odell Beckham 2020→2021 (CLE: 28.2%→18.2%); Terry McLaurin 2021→2022 (WAS: 25.3%→23.8%); Terry McLaurin 2022→2023 (WAS: 24.4%→22.8%).

self-anchored 58% to own 28.1% role (3yr), 42% to comp median 23.8%

The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.

Offensive environment: ATL rates 21.5 against a league average of 23, 1.5 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season+1 · neutral
Weeks 1–6+2.1 · easier
Weeks 12–17-1.4 · neutral
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)+5.6 · easier

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

What happened when he missed time

From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.

SeasonGames missedMain beneficiaryTheir PPR gain
20254David Sills+6.4
Read the full Drake London study →

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved +6.6% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

PlayerSeasonTheir PPGSimilarityNext year
Mike Evans202316.678%+19%
Garrett Wilson202414.875%+4.8%
A.J. Brown202217.674%+23%
DeVonta Smith202415.372%+1.5%
Michael Pittman202315.872%-19%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 3 gained value, 1 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

02,0004,0006,0008,0002023202420252026
Monthly superflex value, 2022-03 to 2026-07. Up 53% across the series, peaking at 7,498.

The player

Draft capital and athletic profile

Drafted2022, round 1, pick 8 by ATL
CollegeUSC
Age at draft21
Height6′4″
Weight219 lb

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game13.8
Week-to-week variation0.7
Boom rate22%
Bust rate18%
Games missed per season1.3
Injury historyGroin, Knee
Correlation between his posted line and his actual score0.34

That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.

Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.

The record, season by season

2025 · ATL · 12 games

His best game was Week 9 against NE — 38.8 PPR on 14 targets and a 41.2% target share, in a game that finished 23-24. His worst was Week 17 against LA at 1.4, on 2 targets, final score 27-24. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 18.2; in the 4 decided by more, 14.1. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 15.9 points per game. He scored 16.82, 5.5% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 7 against 4.44 expected, a gap of 2.6.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1TB20-2313.581555035.7%88%
2MIN22-65.93449019%85%
3CAR0-3010.55855019.5%86%
4WAS34-2725810110138.5%85%
6BUF24-1431.81016158151.6%97%
7SF10-208.241042027.8%98%
9NE23-2438.8914118341.2%98%
10IND25-3124.468104132%98%
11CAR27-3018.979119031%92%
16ARI26-195.73827023.5%69%
17LA27-241.4124010%98%
18NO19-1717.84878126.7%94%

Production

Receptions68
Targets112
Receiving yards919
Touchdowns7
Points per game16.82
Yards per target8.21
Catch rate60.71%

Role

Snap share90.67%
Target share29.71%
Air-yards share40.23%
WOPR0.727
RACR0.753

Efficiency

Average depth of target10.9
Yards after catch per reception3.4
Yards before catch per reception10.1
Total YAC229
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted100.3
Receiving EPA per game2.06

Scoring position

Red-zone targets15
Red-zone target share24.6%
End-zone target share39.1%
Expected receiving TDs4.44
Actual receiving TDs7
Receiving TD luck2.56

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:

Points per game6 of 44
Yards per target19 of 44
Target share8 of 44
Air-yards share6 of 44

Who else ate

The offense threw it 545 times. He took 21.62% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Kyle Pitts22.78%
Drake London 21.62%
Bijan Robinson19.88%
Darnell Mooney13.9%
David Sills6.95%
Tyler Allgeier3.09%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Michael Penix99419.678.6232.92%
Kirk Cousins3188.36.0620.07%

Blowouts against close games

1 of his 12 games were blowouts, 5.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 10.5 in those and 18.19 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2024 · ATL · 17 games

His best game was Week 18 against CAR — 40.7 PPR on 18 targets and a 48.6% target share, in a game that finished 38-44. His worst was Week 1 against PIT at 3.5, on 3 targets, final score 10-18. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 12 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 17.6; in the 5 decided by more, 13.9. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 16.5 points per game. He scored 16.52, 0.3% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1PIT10-183.52315013%100%
2PHI22-2117.46754124.1%97%
3KC17-2218.76967133.3%100%
4NO26-2412.461264035.3%98%
5TB36-3033.41213154124.1%84%
6CAR38-2019.461074134.5%96%
7SEA14-3418.36863122.2%89%
8TB31-267.44634021.4%100%
9DAL27-2110.7222718.3%19%
10NO17-2017.781397035.1%100%
11DEN6-389.13761024.1%76%
13LAC13-1717.391686042.1%99%
14MIN21-421251070027%100%
15LV15-914.33353118.8%98%
16NYG34-710.95859030.8%73%
17WAS24-3017.6713106037.1%97%
18CAR38-4440.71018187248.6%99%

Production

Receptions100
Targets158
Receiving yards1,271
Carries1
Rushing yards-3
Touchdowns9
Points per game16.52
Yards per target8.04
Catch rate63.29%
Yards per carry-3

Role

Snap share89.71%
Target share28.22%
Air-yards share36.94%
WOPR0.683
RACR0.832

Efficiency

Average depth of target10.9
Yards after catch per reception3.3
Yards before catch per reception9.4
Total YAC327
Broken tackles6
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted86.2
Receiving EPA per game2.16
Rushing EPA per game-0.14

Scoring position

Red-zone targets26
Red-zone target share42.6%
End-zone target share57.1%
Expected receiving TDs6.25
Actual receiving TDs7
Receiving TD luck0.75

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:

Points per game13 of 51
Yards per target27 of 51
Target share7 of 51
Air-yards share12 of 51

Who else ate

The offense threw it 559 times. He took 29.31% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Drake London 29.31%
Darnell Mooney19.67%
Ray-Ray McCloud16.14%
Kyle Pitts13.73%
Bijan Robinson13.36%
Tyler Allgeier2.41%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Kirk Cousins1411915.117.7225.95%
Michael Penix33923.079.0338.83%

Blowouts against close games

5 of his 17 games were blowouts, 24.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 13.94 in those and 17.59 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2023 · ATL · 16 games

His best game was Week 14 against TB — 29.2 PPR on 11 targets and a 28.2% target share, in a game that finished 25-29. His worst was Week 1 against CAR at 0, on 1 targets, final score 24-10. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 13.2; in the 7 decided by more, 7.9. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 11.8 points per game. He scored 10.9, 7.7% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 2 against 3.88 expected, a gap of -1.9.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1CAR24-10001005.6%90%
2GB25-2418.76867126.7%82%
3DET6-205.12631015.8%93%
4JAX7-2311.83728123.3%86%
5HOU21-1914.686978023.7%86%
6WAS16-2421.5912125027.3%82%
7TB16-1311.46754030.4%85%
8TEN23-2810.55755021.2%54%
10ARI23-256.63436021.1%77%
12NO24-1514.15791035%84%
13NYJ13-81.8158020%85%
14TB25-2929.21011172028.2%76%
15CAR7-94.42324015.8%85%
16IND29-106.93439012.5%77%
17CHI17-379.641056031.3%83%
18NO17-488.14941026.5%75%

Production

Receptions69
Targets110
Receiving yards905
Touchdowns2
Points per game10.9
Yards per target8.23
Catch rate62.73%

Role

Snap share81.25%
Target share22.77%
Air-yards share30.7%
WOPR0.556
RACR0.706

Efficiency

Average depth of target11.5
Yards after catch per reception2.7
Yards before catch per reception10.4
Total YAC188
Broken tackles2
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted79.5
Receiving EPA per game0.74

Scoring position

Red-zone targets16
Red-zone target share28.1%
End-zone target share31.6%
Expected receiving TDs3.88
Actual receiving TDs2
Receiving TD luck-1.88

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:

Points per game39 of 51
Yards per target27 of 51
Target share28 of 51
Air-yards share30 of 51

Who else ate

The offense threw it 530 times. He took 21.83% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Drake London 21.83%
Kyle Pitts17.86%
Bijan Robinson17.06%
Jonnu Smith13.89%
Mack Hollins5.95%
Van Jefferson5.56%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Desmond Ridder128511.738.4623.19%
Taylor Heinicke4258.47.4421.52%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 16 games were blowouts, 14.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8.2 in those and 13.2 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2022 · ATL · 17 games

His best game was Week 2 against LA — 24.6 PPR on 12 targets and a 48% target share, in a game that finished 27-31. His worst was Week 7 against CIN at 1.9, on 1 targets, final score 17-35. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 13 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 10.5; in the 4 decided by more, 10.4. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 11.8 points per game. He scored 10.51, 10.7% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1NO26-2712.45774021.9%72%
2LA27-3124.681286148%82%
3SEA27-2314.43654131.6%84%
4CLE23-203.72717038.9%80%
5TB15-217.54735029.2%67%
6SF28-1473440028.6%67%
7CIN17-351.911908.3%85%
8CAR37-347.14531017.9%88%
9LAC17-203.33723030.4%75%
10CAR15-2514.85638120.7%87%
11CHI27-247.2132116.7%76%
12WAS13-194.92429016.7%86%
13PIT16-1915.561295050%87%
15NO18-211271170042.3%81%
16BAL9-1714.67996029%77%
17ARI20-199.75847032%77%
18TB30-171868120028.6%57%

Production

Receptions72
Targets117
Receiving yards866
Touchdowns4
Points per game10.51
Yards per target7.4
Catch rate61.54%

Role

Snap share78.12%
Target share28.87%
Air-yards share29.28%
WOPR0.639
RACR0.845

Efficiency

Average depth of target10.4
Yards after catch per reception3.2
Yards before catch per reception8.8
Total YAC231
Broken tackles1
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted84.9
Receiving EPA per game0.75

Scoring position

Red-zone targets16
Red-zone target share32.7%
End-zone target share45.5%
Expected receiving TDs4.19
Actual receiving TDs4
Receiving TD luck-0.19

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:

Points per game41 of 51
Yards per target37 of 51
Target share7 of 51
Air-yards share23 of 51

Who else ate

The offense threw it 415 times. He took 29.4% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Drake London 29.4%
Olamide Zaccheaus15.33%
Kyle Pitts14.82%
Cordarrelle Patterson7.79%
Damiere Byrd5.78%
MyCole Pruitt5.28%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Marcus Mariota13819.566.5827.61%
Desmond Ridder43613.579.2532.98%

Blowouts against close games

1 of his 17 games were blowouts, 1.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 1.9 in those and 10.53 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

Ask the Coach about Drake London →
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