Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 12.55 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 40.7, usage worth 12.2.
23 years old · 1 season of experience · 2025 draft class
| SLEEPER | 34.7 |
| ESPN | 41.4 |
| YAHOO | 41.1 |
| UNDERDOG | 39.4 |
| CBS | 45.7 |
| FFA | 47 |
| Goes around | Round 4, pick 5 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR15 |
| Bye week | 5 |
| ADP standard deviation | 4.5 picks |
Our board has him at 213.2 points, 13 per game — 72.2 catches, 1,014 yards, 6.6 TDs. That is WR3, 47 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 9 points per game to a ceiling of 16.8, with the median at 13. Boom rate 29%, bust rate 30%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 40.7 on consensus and our board has him 47. We rank him 6.3 picks worse than the room drafts him, so at ADP he is mildly overpriced. That is an objection to the price and not to the player — if he falls past his slot he can be exactly the right pick.
Top-projected WR in this range with rising live ADP - take him over correlated stacks (e.g., a Hampton+Ladd pairing). Clean WR2 in half PPR.
buy · medium conviction · 2026-06-14Carolina Panthers returns 6 of 6 continuity slots — the whole offense is intact. Bryce Young at quarterback, Dave Canales as head coach, Brad Idzik calling it. The offense projects to 31.3 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 26.9 rushes.
In: Kenny Pickett (qb2), Chris Brazzell II (wr3), John Metchie III (wr5), Jonathon Brooks (rb2), AJ Dillon (rb4). Out: Rico Dowdle (rb2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 21.4%, with a bear case of 19.3% and a bull case of 23.2% and a full range of 17.4% to 25.3%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Tetairoa McMillan ← | 21.4% |
| Jalen Coker | 11.9% |
| Xavier Legette | 10.6% |
| Chris Brazzell II | 8.3% |
| David Moore | 8.2% |
| Chuba Hubbard | 8.1% |
What the offense looks like: Bryce Young does not currently hold non SF fantasy value, but if he breaks out in 2026, he certainly will. However, if Bryce regresses, this offense will be BRUTAL to own any part of. This is a fairly high risk high reward offense to have pieces of. McMillan, Coker, Brooks, and even Metchie III & Brazzell II COULD see their value improve in 2026.
Key additions: Drafted WR Chris Brazell II in the 3rd round from Tennessee. signed WR John Metchie III in free agency on 1 year deal. signed C Luke Fortner & LT Rasheed Walker (projected Starter) from GB. Panthers signed QB Kenny Pickett (Garbage) to back up Bryce Young. AJ Dillon was also signed as 3rd/4th string RB.
Key departures: Lost G/C Austin Corbett to Bills in free agency. Lost Rico Dowdle RB to Steelers in Free agency
Notes: McMillan year 2 primary target share expected. Brazzell round 3 deep threat. Young has 5th year option picked up. Trending in the right direction. Hubbard serviceable, but the former 2nd round pick Jonathon Brooks is coming back from second ACL tear(great potential but all dynasty managers know). it will be interesting to see how Chris Brazzell II works into offense but expect Jalen Coker to be WR2. Xavier Legette may be traded early in the season. Panthers also added WR John Metchie III (Bryce Young's college teammate). This TE room is BRUTAL & you have no business owning any TE on this team. Carolina also may be in the market for a free agent TE like David Njoku (or may potentially trade for one). .
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Bryce Young returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (30.3 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 31.3 att/g.
29 historical comps for WRs age ~22, prior share 25.4%, same team, OC continuity. Distribution: median 23.1%, p25-p75 [19.7%, 26.0%], tails [16.7%, 29.2%]. Closest comps: Terry McLaurin 2020→2021 (WAS: 25.9%→24.6%); Odell Beckham 2020→2021 (CLE: 28.2%→18.2%); Terry McLaurin 2021→2022 (WAS: 25.3%→23.8%).
self-anchored 30% to own 25.4% role (1yr), 70% to comp median 23.1%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: CAR rates 20.9 against a league average of 23, 2.1 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -1.3 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | -1.4 · neutral |
| Weeks 12–17 | -1.5 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +5 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full Tetairoa McMillan study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +8.6% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison | 2024 | 11.6 | 87% | -7.6% |
| Marquise Brown | 2020 | 11.4 | 79% | +18.3% |
| Chris Olave | 2022 | 13.2 | 78% | +29.7% |
| DeVonta Smith | 2021 | 10.9 | 75% | +13.4% |
| Chris Olave | 2023 | 14.5 | 74% | -6.7% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 3 gained value, 2 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2025, round 1, pick 8 by CAR |
| College | Arizona |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 6′4″ |
| Weight | 219 lb |
His best game was Week 11 against ATL — 33 PPR on 12 targets and a 27.3% target share, in a game that finished 30-27. His worst was Week 17 against SEA at 1.5, on 4 targets, final score 10-27. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 14.3; in the 7 decided by more, 10.1. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 12.2 points per game. He scored 12.55, 2.8% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX | 10-26 | 11.8 | 5 | 9 | 68 | 0 | 26.5% | 83% |
| 2 | ARI | 22-27 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 100 | 0 | 18.9% | 85% |
| 3 | ATL | 30-0 | 7.8 | 3 | 8 | 48 | 0 | 33.3% | 90% |
| 4 | NE | 13-42 | 10.2 | 4 | 8 | 62 | 0 | 25% | 94% |
| 5 | MIA | 27-24 | 13.3 | 6 | 8 | 73 | 0 | 29.6% | 90% |
| 6 | DAL | 30-27 | 17.9 | 3 | 5 | 29 | 2 | 23.8% | 93% |
| 7 | NYJ | 13-6 | 6.3 | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 | 16.1% | 87% |
| 8 | BUF | 9-40 | 16.9 | 7 | 10 | 99 | 0 | 43.5% | 93% |
| 9 | GB | 16-13 | 8.6 | 4 | 6 | 46 | 0 | 31.6% | 84% |
| 10 | NO | 7-17 | 11 | 5 | 8 | 60 | 0 | 34.8% | 91% |
| 11 | ATL | 30-27 | 33 | 8 | 12 | 130 | 2 | 27.3% | 86% |
| 12 | SF | 9-20 | 11.5 | 2 | 7 | 35 | 1 | 25.9% | 91% |
| 13 | LA | 31-28 | 11.3 | 1 | 2 | 43 | 1 | 10% | 73% |
| 15 | NO | 17-20 | 4.5 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 20% | 84% |
| 16 | TB | 23-20 | 19.3 | 6 | 10 | 73 | 1 | 32.3% | 87% |
| 17 | SEA | 10-27 | 1.5 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 19% | 83% |
| 18 | TB | 14-16 | 12.5 | 4 | 6 | 85 | 0 | 20% | 88% |
| Receptions | 70 |
| Targets | 122 |
| Receiving yards | 1,014 |
| Touchdowns | 7 |
| Points per game | 12.55 |
| Yards per target | 8.31 |
| Catch rate | 57.38% |
| Snap share | 87.18% |
| Target share | 25.74% |
| Air-yards share | 45.95% |
| WOPR | 0.709 |
| RACR | 0.698 |
| Average depth of target | 11.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 10.6 |
| Total YAC | 269 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 83.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.49 |
| Red-zone targets | 15 |
| Red-zone target share | 19.7% |
| End-zone target share | 23.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.73 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.27 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 19 of 44 |
| Yards per target | 17 of 44 |
| Target share | 11 of 44 |
| Air-yards share | 2 of 44 |
The offense threw it 515 times. He took 25.42% of the targets. 0 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Tetairoa McMillan ← | 25.42% |
| Xavier Legette | 13.33% |
| Rico Dowdle | 10.42% |
| Jalen Coker | 8.96% |
| Chuba Hubbard | 8.13% |
| Tommy Tremble | 7.71% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 16 | 112 | 12.28 | 8.17 | 24.63% |
| Andy Dalton | 1 | 10 | 16.9 | 9.9 | 43.5% |
4 of his 17 games were blowouts, 17.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9.1 in those and 14.27 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about Tetairoa McMillan →