Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 5.65 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 169.4, usage worth 6.
24 years old · 3 seasons of experience · 2023 draft class
| ESPN | 169.4 |
| UNDERDOG | 215.3 |
| FFA | 199 |
| Goes around | Round 15, pick 1 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | TE27 |
Our board has him at 89.1 points, 5.9 per game — 34 catches, 371 yards, 3 TDs. That is TE5, 194 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 3.9 points per game to a ceiling of 12.2, with the median at 5.9. Boom rate 99%, bust rate 34%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 169.4 on consensus and our board has him 194. We rank him 24.6 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.
Pittsburgh Steelers returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing hc, oc. Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, Mike McCarthy as head coach, Brian Angelichio calling it. The offense projects to 33 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 25.3 rushes.
In: Drew Allar (qb2), Michael Pittman Jr. (wr2), Germie Bernard (wr3), Kaden Wejen (wr6), A.T. Perry (wr7), Rico Dowdle (rb2), Eli Heidenreich (rb4). Out: Calvin Austin III (wr2), Adam Thielen (wr4), Kenneth Gainwell (rb2), Jonnu Smith (te2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 6.5%, with a bear case of 3.8% and a bull case of 11.5% and a full range of 2.1% to 12.7%. That comes from 25 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| DK Metcalf | 21% |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | 13.9% |
| Germie Bernard | 13.6% |
| Pat Freiermuth | 13.1% |
| Jaylen Warren | 10.4% |
| Rico Dowdle | 7.1% |
Key additions: Traded for and Signed Michael Pittman Jr to 3 year $59M deal. Signed RB Rico Dowdle to 2/$12M deal in free agency. Drafted WR Germie Bernard in 2nd round, Drafted OT Max Iheanachor in 1st roud to beef up line. Drafted QB Drew Allar in the 3rd round. Drafted G Gennings Dunker 3rd roud (depth). Bringin in HC Mike McCarthy & Brian Angelichio as OC.
Key departures: RB Kenneth Gainwell left in free agency to Bucs. LG Isaac Seumalo left for Cardinals. WR Calvin Austin III left in free agency for Giants. HC Mike Tomlin & OC Arthur Smith (Ass) are both gone.
Notes: Drafted Bernard round 2 Steelers traded up. Steelers traded for Michael Pittman Jr. who is aging but will elevate the passing game. DK Metcalf looks to get back on track in 2026 & establish himself as WR1. Crowded WR room. Steelers drafted WR Riley Nowakowski in the 4th round & he will likely operate as WR5 or return specialist. Signed Rico Dowdle to 2 year deal in free agency. Warren is slotted to be 1A and Dowdle 1B, but any injury to either back makes the other a home run hit in fantasy for 2026. Aaron Rodgers SHOULD return to Steelers, but also drafted Drew Allar (bad QB but good prospect who should be rostered because he can progress. Zero floor on Allar but the ceiling is very high if he gets better.)
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Aaron Rodgers returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (32.4 att/g); Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33 att/g; New OC Brian Angelichio — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Mike McCarthy.
25 historical comps for TEs age ~24, prior share 11.2%, team change, OC change. Distribution: median 6.5%, p25-p75 [2.4%, 13.2%], tails [0.0%, 14.9%]. Closest comps: Anthony Firkser 2021→2022 (TEN→ATL: 10.0%→6.1%); Ricky Seals-Jones 2021→2022 (WAS: 12.7%→0.0%); Foster Moreau 2022→2023 (LV→NO: 11.0%→6.8%). Adjustment: -5% from td_luck_breakout (TD regression risk)
arrival self-anchored 21% to own 11.2% role (1yr)
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: PIT rates 21.3 against a league average of 23, 1.6 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -1.9 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | +2.2 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -1.8 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +3.7 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +94.6% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, TEs crash the following year 47% of the time (hold 53%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 47% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.3 elite seasons and 2.3 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Tremble | 2023 | 4 | 76% | +53.6% |
| Adam Trautman | 2021 | 5.8 | 73% | -44.5% |
| Harrison Bryant | 2022 | 4.4 | 72% | -1.9% |
| Kylen Granson | 2023 | 4.9 | 70% | -17.1% |
| Brenton Strange | 2024 | 6.5 | 70% | +49.3% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 2 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2023, round 3, pick 93 by PIT |
| College | Georgia |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 6′7″ |
| Weight | 264 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.64s |
| Vertical | 31″ |
| Broad jump | 122″ |
| Shuttle | 4.08s |
| Career PPR per game | 3.9 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.7 |
| Boom rate | 4% |
| Bust rate | 28% |
| Games missed per season | 0 |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | -0.01 |
His best game was Week 11 against CIN — 10.7 PPR on 5 targets and a 17.2% target share, in a game that finished 34-12. His worst was Week 2 against SEA at 2, on 1 targets, final score 17-31. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 5.3; in the 6 decided by more, 6.1. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 6 points per game. He scored 5.65, 6% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 1 against 2.4 expected, a gap of -1.4.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | SEA | 17-31 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.2% | 37% |
| 4 | MIN | 24-21 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 13.6% | 91% |
| 6 | CLE | 23-9 | 9.2 | 3 | 5 | 62 | 0 | 17.2% | 80% |
| 7 | CIN | 31-33 | 9.2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 15.2% | 63% |
| 9 | IND | 27-20 | 8.3 | 4 | 6 | 43 | 0 | 17.1% | 66% |
| 10 | LAC | 10-25 | 2.5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 3.6% | 48% |
| 11 | CIN | 34-12 | 10.7 | 4 | 5 | 67 | 0 | 17.2% | 71% |
| 12 | CHI | 28-31 | 4.2 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 6.5% | 68% |
| 13 | BUF | 7-26 | 6.5 | 2 | 4 | 45 | 0 | 18.2% | 79% |
| 14 | BAL | 27-22 | 2.2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3% | 29% |
| 15 | MIA | 28-15 | 5.5 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 14.8% | 73% |
| 16 | DET | 29-24 | 4.6 | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 | 10.5% | 68% |
| 17 | CLE | 6-13 | 3.5 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 5.4% | 14% |
| Receptions | 31 |
| Targets | 43 |
| Receiving yards | 364 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 5.65 |
| Yards per target | 8.47 |
| Catch rate | 72.09% |
| Snap share | 60.54% |
| Target share | 11.19% |
| Air-yards share | 11.87% |
| WOPR | 0.251 |
| RACR | 1.786 |
| Average depth of target | 5.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 4.4 |
| Total YAC | 229 |
| Broken tackles | 4 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 95.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.13 |
| Red-zone targets | 8 |
| Red-zone target share | 10.4% |
| End-zone target share | 7.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.4 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.4 |
The offense threw it 550 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| DK Metcalf | 19.04% |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 16.35% |
| Calvin Austin III | 10.58% |
| Jonnu Smith | 10.38% |
| Pat Freiermuth | 10.38% |
| Jaylen Warren | 8.65% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 11 | 36 | 5.32 | 7.64 | 11.07% |
| Mason Rudolph | 2 | 7 | 7.45 | 12.71 | 11.85% |
2 of his 13 games were blowouts, 23.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8.6 in those and 5.29 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 7 against NYJ — 7.6 PPR on 4 targets and a 14.8% target share, in a game that finished 37-15. His worst was Week 14 against CLE at 0, on 1 targets, final score 27-14. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 13 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 3.7; in the 4 decided by more, 2.8. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 3.5 points per game. He scored 3.46, 5.4% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL | 18-10 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4.5% | 54% |
| 2 | DEN | 13-6 | 7.5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5.6% | 44% |
| 4 | IND | 24-27 | 5.1 | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 | 6.3% | 57% |
| 5 | DAL | 17-20 | 1.5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 7.7% | 52% |
| 6 | LV | 32-13 | 1.9 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 4.3% | 73% |
| 7 | NYJ | 37-15 | 7.6 | 4 | 4 | 36 | 0 | 14.8% | 53% |
| 8 | NYG | 26-18 | 3.9 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 0 | 3.7% | 45% |
| 10 | WAS | 28-27 | 1.6 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 11.5% | 64% |
| 11 | BAL | 18-16 | 6.2 | 2 | 4 | 42 | 0 | 12.5% | 58% |
| 12 | CLE | 19-24 | 4.4 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 12% | 55% |
| 13 | CIN | 44-38 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 2.8% | 49% |
| 14 | CLE | 27-14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.2% | 58% |
| 17 | KC | 10-29 | 1.8 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 2.9% | 35% |
| Receptions | 19 |
| Targets | 25 |
| Receiving yards | 200 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 3.46 |
| Yards per target | 8 |
| Catch rate | 76% |
| Snap share | 53.62% |
| Target share | 7.14% |
| Air-yards share | 3.45% |
| WOPR | 0.131 |
| RACR | 1.898 |
| Average depth of target | 4.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.6 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 3.9 |
| Total YAC | 126 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 95.4 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.66 |
| Red-zone targets | 2 |
| Red-zone target share | 3.3% |
| End-zone target share | 8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.97 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.03 |
The offense threw it 498 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| George Pickens | 22.44% |
| Pat Freiermuth | 16.99% |
| Calvin Austin III | 12.64% |
| Najee Harris | 10.46% |
| Jaylen Warren | 10.24% |
| Van Jefferson | 8.71% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 8 | 18 | 3.44 | 8.06 | 8.05% |
| Justin Fields | 5 | 7 | 3.5 | 7.86 | 5.68% |
3 of his 13 games were blowouts, 25.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3.77 in those and 3.74 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 14 against NE — 2.2 PPR on 2 targets and a 5.7% target share, in a game that finished 18-21. His worst was Week 5 against BAL at 0, on 2 targets, final score 17-10. Across 8 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 8 times.
His usage that season was worth 2.1 points per game. He scored 1.64, 31.1% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | HOU | 6-30 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 3.7% | 42% |
| 5 | BAL | 17-10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6.5% | 70% |
| 9 | TEN | 20-16 | 1.7 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3.4% | 49% |
| 10 | GB | 23-19 | 1.6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4.5% | 51% |
| 11 | CLE | 10-13 | 1.8 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | 47% |
| 12 | CIN | 16-10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 3.1% | 52% |
| 14 | NE | 18-21 | 2.2 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 5.7% | 43% |
| 16 | CIN | 34-11 | 1.8 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | 49% |
| Receptions | 7 |
| Targets | 10 |
| Receiving yards | 61 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 1.64 |
| Yards per target | 6.1 |
| Catch rate | 70% |
| Snap share | 50.38% |
| Target share | 4.36% |
| Air-yards share | 0.64% |
| WOPR | 0.071 |
| RACR | 3.5 |
| Average depth of target | 1.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 1.6 |
| Total YAC | 50 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 85.8 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.15 |
| Red-zone targets | 2 |
| Red-zone target share | 4.1% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.6 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.6 |
The offense threw it 506 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| George Pickens | 21.9% |
| Diontae Johnson | 17.98% |
| Jaylen Warren | 15.29% |
| Allen Robinson | 10.12% |
| Pat Freiermuth | 9.71% |
| Najee Harris | 7.85% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 6 | 7 | 1.52 | 5.86 | 4.2% |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 1 | 2 | 2.2 | 6 | 5.7% |
| Mason Rudolph | 1 | 1 | 1.8 | 8 | 4% |
2 of his 8 games were blowouts, 29% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 1.9 in those and 1.55 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
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