Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 15.08 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 18.8, usage worth 13.4.
23 years old · 1 season of experience · 2025 draft class
| SLEEPER | 16.5 |
| ESPN | 22.6 |
| YAHOO | 18.4 |
| UNDERDOG | 16 |
| CBS | 17.6 |
| FFA | 16 |
| Goes around | Round 2, pick 7 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | RB10 |
| Bye week | 7 |
| ADP standard deviation | 2.7 picks |
Our board has him at 243.3 points, 15.2 per game — 1,042 rushing yards, 8 rushing TDs, 44.9 catches. That is RB2, 16 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 11.5 points per game to a ceiling of 23.5, with the median at 15.2. Boom rate 54%, bust rate 24%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 18.8 on consensus and our board has him 16. Those agree, so there is no market disagreement to exploit. The question is whether you want the profile, not whether it is mispriced.
Late-2nd anchor — heavy touches and TD opportunity in a Chargers offense expected to be very good. Some concern Kimani Vidal/Mitchell eats early, but the role and offense are strong.
buy · high conviction · 2026-06-05Los Angeles Chargers returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing oc. Justin Herbert at quarterback, Jim Harbaugh as head coach, Mike McDaniel calling it. The offense projects to 33.5 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 27 rushes.
In: Brenen Thompson (wr4), Luke Grimm (wr7), Keaton Mitchell (rb2), Charlie Kolar (te2). Out: Keenan Allen (wr3), Tyler Conklin (te2).
The projected carry split across the offense:
| Omarion Hampton ← | 54.1% |
| Keaton Mitchell | 21.8% |
| Jaret Patterson | 15.2% |
| Kamani Vidal | 9% |
What the offense looks like: The top targets and back in this offense will be STELLAR fantasy assets in 2026 and beyond. Herbert SHOULD have a killer season in 2026.
Key additions: Joe Alt & Slater are back. This offense should do a complete 180. Joe Alt & Slater return in 2026 from injury & Chargers add Jake Slaughter LG in the 2nd round of 2026 draft. Sign Tyler Biadasz C, and RG Cole Strange. Entire different O ine from later year. Signed RB Keaton Mitchell to 2 year deal. Signed FB Alex Ingold from Miami. Biggest change is teh offensive Genius Mike McDaniel is the new OC.
Key departures: Keenan Allen remains a free agent and is not currently expected back with the Chargers
Notes: Chargers bring in Mike McDaniel as offensvie coordinator who could SUPERCHARGE offense. Herbert ascending as top 7 dynasty QB. Keenan Allen remains a free agent. Ladd & QJ should operate as 1A & 1B with Ladd having more potential. Tre' Harris should operate as WR3 if no one else is brought in. TE Oronde Gadsden could be very good. RB room is complex. Hampton is the presumed starter week 1 with massive potential but Vidal has been very capable as a back up & chargers also signed Keaton Mitchell to 2 year deal in free agency. Question mark people should think about in usage. Thompson round 4.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Justin Herbert returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (33.5 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.5 att/g; New OC Mike McDaniel — pass rate and tempo may shift.
| Projected carry share | 54.1% |
| Projected carries per game | 12 |
| Projected carries, full season | 204 |
| Last season, carries per game | 12.5 |
That is a reduction of 0.5 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 27 rushing attempts a game.
Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.
Offensive environment: LAC rates 24.3 against a league average of 23, 1.3 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -0.3 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | -3.1 · harder |
| Weeks 12–17 | -0.3 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +2.7 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2 | Kimani Vidal | +7.1 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +13.7% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 2020 | 13.5 | 74% | -20.1% |
| Miles Sanders | 2020 | 14.2 | 68% | -21.8% |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 2021 | 11.8 | 60% | -26.9% |
| Breece Hall | 2022 | 16.4 | 59% | +38.2% |
| Travis Etienne | 2022 | 12.1 | 57% | +20.4% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2025, round 1, pick 22 by LAC |
| College | North Carolina |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 6′0″ |
| Weight | 221 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.46s |
| Vertical | 38″ |
| Broad jump | 130″ |
| Shuttle | 4.4s |
His best game was Week 4 against NYG — 27.5 PPR on 17 touches and a 13.2% target share, in a game that finished 18-21. His worst was Week 2 against LV at 3.5, on 10 touches, final score 20-9. Across 9 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 17.1; in the 3 decided by more, 11. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 13.4 points per game. He scored 15.08, 1% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | 27-21 | 8.1 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 15 | 48 | 0 | 5.9% | 80% |
| 2 | LV | 20-9 | 3.5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 24 | 0 | 7.4% | 62% |
| 3 | DEN | 23-20 | 24.9 | 6 | 7 | 59 | 19 | 70 | 1 | 15.6% | 79% |
| 4 | NYG | 18-21 | 27.5 | 5 | 5 | 37 | 12 | 128 | 1 | 13.2% | 89% |
| 5 | WAS | 10-27 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 26 | 12 | 44 | 0 | 18.8% | 58% |
| 14 | PHI | 22-19 | 14.7 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 56 | 1 | 8.7% | 31% |
| 15 | KC | 16-13 | 7.5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 61 | 0 | 3.8% | 36% |
| 16 | DAL | 34-17 | 16.5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 16 | 85 | 1 | 7.1% | 55% |
| 17 | HOU | 16-20 | 20 | 8 | 8 | 31 | 14 | 29 | 1 | 25.8% | 81% |
| Receptions | 32 |
| Targets | 35 |
| Receiving yards | 192 |
| Carries | 124 |
| Rushing yards | 545 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 15.08 |
| Yards per target | 5.49 |
| Catch rate | 91.43% |
| Yards per carry | 4.4 |
| Snap share | 63.44% |
| Target share | 11.81% |
| Air-yards share | -2.99% |
| WOPR | 0.158 |
| RACR | -2.137 |
| Average depth of target | -1.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7.7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -1.7 |
| Total YAC | 245 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 99 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.07 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.09 |
| Red-zone targets | 2 |
| Red-zone target share | 2.5% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 33.3% |
| Goal-line carry share | 36.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.65 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.35 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 4.6 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 13 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 32 of 49 |
| Target share | 11 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 44 of 49 |
The offense threw it 569 times. He took 6.49% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Keenan Allen | 22.63% |
| Ladd McConkey | 19.67% |
| Quentin Johnston | 15.58% |
| Oronde Gadsden II | 12.8% |
| Tre Harris | 7.98% |
| Omarion Hampton ← | 6.49% |
2 of his 9 games were blowouts, 21.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 14.75 in those and 17.12 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about Omarion Hampton →