Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 13.62 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 111.8, usage worth 14.9.
25 years old · 4 seasons of experience · 2022 draft class
| SLEEPER | 108.6 |
| ESPN | 117.7 |
| YAHOO | 130.7 |
| UNDERDOG | 111.4 |
| CBS | 90.2 |
| FFA | 123 |
| Goes around | Round 10, pick 4 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR43 |
| Bye week | 9 |
| ADP standard deviation | 17 picks |
Our board has him at 154.1 points, 9.4 per game — 63.2 catches, 699 yards, 3.5 TDs. That is WR5, 123 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 8.5 points per game to a ceiling of 15.9, with the median at 9.4. Boom rate 70%, bust rate 10%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 111.8 on consensus and our board has him 123. We rank him 11.2 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.
Tennessee Titans returns 2 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1, te1, hc, oc. Cam Ward at quarterback, Robert Saleh as head coach, Brian Daboll calling it. The offense projects to 33.5 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 24.5 rushes.
In: Mitch Trubisky (qb2), Carnell Tate (wr1), Wan'Dale Robinson (wr2), Nicholas Singleton (rb3), Michael Carter (rb4), Daniel Bellinger (te2). Out: Tyler Lockett (wr4), Julius Chestnut (rb3), Chig Okonkwo (te1), Josh Whyle (te2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 15.5%, with a bear case of 14% and a bull case of 18.5% and a full range of 10.8% to 20%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Carnell Tate | 18.3% |
| Calvin Ridley | 18.3% |
| Wan'Dale Robinson ← | 15.5% |
| Elic Ayomanor | 11.2% |
| Chimere Dike | 9.1% |
| Tyjae Spears | 8.9% |
What the offense looks like: It is an offense that could slowly be on the rise. It could QUICKLY be on the rise if Ward figures it out early in 2026 and could catch people off guard. Tate & Robinson are our primary targets. Ward is a great potential riser especially in SF. RB room is difficult to project, but Pollard it likely to be lead back in 2026 and could be a low end RB2 in fantasy.
Key additions: Titans HUGE adds to coaching staff that could turn this team aroud. HC Robert Saleh & former Giants (and QB whisperer) HC Brian Daboll head head to Tennessee and may a GREAT duo. Bring in WR Wan'Dale Robinson in free agency from NY (1000 yard slot WR last year) & draft WR Carnell Tate 4th overall. Beef up the O line with Austin Schlottmann & Volson. Drafted RB Nicholas Singleton in the 5th round (likely depth).
Key departures: HC Brian Callahan was fired after 1-5 start last season (ass) and this will be a huge help to the Titans offensive success. TE Chig Okonkwo left to Commanders in free agency
Notes: Titans draft Carnell Tate 1.04. Large potential for early breakout & Cam Ward to deliver at a high level. Calvin Ridley is trash but if Cam Ward can sling the rock could produce (we don't want to own Ridley). Ayomanor & Dike COULD be good if Ward produces but with Tate and Robinson around now will never be WR1 on the team. Could gain relevance though. Gunnar Helm entering 2nd year and should operate as TE1. Tony Pollard is aging & only has a few years left (not attractive to own). Tyjae Spears cannot stay healthy. Have to image the Titans will invest in another RB long term (Nicholas Singleton is probably not that guy either).
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Cam Ward returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (33.5 att/g); Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.5 att/g; New OC Brian Daboll — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Robert Saleh.
29 historical comps for WRs age ~25, prior share 26.8%, team change, OC change. Distribution: median 15.9%, p25-p75 [12.4%, 22.3%], tails [5.6%, 25.7%]. Closest comps: Jarvis Landry 2021→2022 (CLE→NO: 25.0%→14.0%); Jakobi Meyers 2022→2023 (NE→LV: 24.0%→20.6%); Robert Woods 2022→2023 (TEN→HOU: 22.5%→15.9%). Adjustment: flat from opportunity_breakout (volume must hold)
arrival self-anchored 41% to own 26.8% role (3yr)
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: TEN rates 20.8 against a league average of 23, 2.2 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +5.1 · easier |
| Weeks 1–6 | +0.2 · neutral |
| Weeks 12–17 | +10 · easier |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +9.6 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4 | Marcus Johnson | +4.6 |
| 2023 | 2 | Isaiah Hodgins | +4 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +37.5% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, WRs crash the following year 40% of the time (hold 60%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 40% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 2022 | 13.5 | 73% | +37.9% |
| DeVonta Smith | 2024 | 15.3 | 72% | +1.5% |
| Marquise Brown | 2022 | 13 | 71% | +0.4% |
| Marquise Brown | 2021 | 14.3 | 68% | +12.7% |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 2022 | 13.4 | 67% | +48.3% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 3 gained value, 0 lost it and 2 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2022, round 2, pick 43 by NYG |
| College | Kentucky |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| Height | 5′8″ |
| Weight | 178 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.44s |
| Vertical | 34.5″ |
| Broad jump | 118″ |
| Career PPR per game | 10.9 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.6 |
| Boom rate | 26.2% |
| Bust rate | 21.4% |
| Games missed per season | 1.8 |
| Injury history | Knee, Rib |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 12 against DET — 30.6 PPR on 14 targets and a 41.2% target share, in a game that finished 27-34. His worst was Week 3 against KC at 3.6, on 4 targets, final score 9-22. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 15; in the 8 decided by more, 12.2. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 14.9 points per game. He scored 13.62, 8.9% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 1 against 3.72 expected, a gap of -2.7.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WAS | 6-21 | 11.5 | 6 | 8 | 55 | 0 | 25% | 76% |
| 2 | DAL | 37-40 | 28.2 | 8 | 10 | 142 | 1 | 25% | 70% |
| 3 | KC | 9-22 | 3.6 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 13.3% | 77% |
| 4 | LAC | 21-18 | 4.4 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 25% | 97% |
| 5 | NO | 14-26 | 8.2 | 5 | 7 | 30 | 0 | 17.9% | 95% |
| 6 | PHI | 34-17 | 20.4 | 6 | 7 | 84 | 1 | 26.9% | 97% |
| 7 | DEN | 32-33 | 15.5 | 6 | 12 | 95 | 0 | 36.4% | 91% |
| 8 | PHI | 20-38 | 7.8 | 3 | 4 | 48 | 0 | 18.2% | 98% |
| 9 | SF | 24-34 | 13.6 | 9 | 11 | 46 | 0 | 34.4% | 100% |
| 10 | CHI | 20-24 | 12.2 | 6 | 11 | 62 | 0 | 34.4% | 99% |
| 11 | GB | 20-27 | 7.6 | 4 | 9 | 36 | 0 | 31% | 97% |
| 12 | DET | 27-34 | 30.6 | 9 | 14 | 156 | 1 | 41.2% | 83% |
| 13 | NE | 15-33 | 10.4 | 7 | 8 | 34 | 0 | 33.3% | 100% |
| 15 | WAS | 21-29 | 16.4 | 5 | 10 | 54 | 1 | 27.8% | 99% |
| 16 | MIN | 13-16 | 5.2 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 0 | 46.2% | 98% |
| 17 | LV | 34-10 | 22.3 | 11 | 14 | 113 | 0 | 48.3% | 75% |
| Receptions | 92 |
| Targets | 140 |
| Receiving yards | 1,014 |
| Carries | 3 |
| Rushing yards | 5 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 13.62 |
| Yards per target | 7.24 |
| Catch rate | 65.71% |
| Yards per carry | 1.67 |
| Snap share | 90.75% |
| Target share | 30.27% |
| Air-yards share | 28.45% |
| WOPR | 0.654 |
| RACR | 0.871 |
| Average depth of target | 8.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6.8 |
| Total YAC | 386 |
| Broken tackles | 6 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 90.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.22 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.12 |
| Red-zone targets | 13 |
| Red-zone target share | 20% |
| End-zone target share | 20% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.72 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -2.72 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 14 of 44 |
| Yards per target | 36 of 44 |
| Target share | 5 of 44 |
| Air-yards share | 28 of 44 |
The offense threw it 526 times. He took 27.89% of the targets. 0 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Wan'Dale Robinson ← | 27.89% |
| Theo Johnson | 14.74% |
| Darius Slayton | 12.55% |
| Tyrone Tracy | 9.56% |
| Malik Nabers | 6.97% |
| Cam Skattebo | 6.37% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxson Dart | 11 | 95 | 12.4 | 6.31 | 31.71% |
| Russell Wilson | 3 | 22 | 14.43 | 10.14 | 21.1% |
| Jameis Winston | 2 | 23 | 19.1 | 8.35 | 36.1% |
4 of his 16 games were blowouts, 28% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 15.23 in those and 15.01 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 4 against DAL — 18.1 PPR on 14 targets and a 36.8% target share, in a game that finished 15-20. His worst was Week 13 against DAL at 2.6, on 2 targets, final score 20-27. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 9.8; in the 8 decided by more, 11.9. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 14.6 points per game. He scored 10.75, 26.4% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 3 against 4.45 expected, a gap of -1.4.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 6-28 | 11.8 | 6 | 12 | 44 | 0 | 31.6% | 68% |
| 2 | WAS | 18-21 | 9.8 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 1 | 14.8% | 63% |
| 3 | CLE | 21-15 | 13.1 | 7 | 8 | 61 | 0 | 24.2% | 60% |
| 4 | DAL | 15-20 | 18.1 | 11 | 14 | 71 | 0 | 36.8% | 65% |
| 5 | SEA | 29-20 | 16 | 6 | 9 | 36 | 1 | 29% | 82% |
| 6 | CIN | 7-17 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 50 | 0 | 30.6% | 81% |
| 7 | PHI | 3-28 | 8.3 | 6 | 9 | 23 | 0 | 33.3% | 84% |
| 8 | PIT | 18-26 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 13.5% | 86% |
| 9 | WAS | 22-27 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 15.4% | 72% |
| 10 | CAR | 17-20 | 10.1 | 5 | 8 | 51 | 0 | 25% | 65% |
| 12 | TB | 7-30 | 9.7 | 5 | 5 | 47 | 0 | 16.7% | 83% |
| 13 | DAL | 20-27 | 2.6 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6.3% | 76% |
| 14 | NO | 11-14 | 7.8 | 4 | 11 | 38 | 0 | 23.9% | 99% |
| 15 | BAL | 14-35 | 7.8 | 4 | 9 | 38 | 0 | 26.5% | 76% |
| 16 | ATL | 7-34 | 13.2 | 7 | 12 | 62 | 0 | 32.4% | 93% |
| 17 | IND | 45-33 | 18.1 | 5 | 6 | 71 | 1 | 27.3% | 64% |
| 18 | PHI | 13-20 | 14.3 | 10 | 11 | 43 | 0 | 39.3% | 74% |
| Receptions | 93 |
| Targets | 140 |
| Receiving yards | 699 |
| Carries | 3 |
| Rushing yards | 18 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 10.75 |
| Yards per target | 4.99 |
| Catch rate | 66.43% |
| Yards per carry | 6 |
| Snap share | 75.94% |
| Target share | 25.09% |
| Air-yards share | 16.41% |
| WOPR | 0.492 |
| RACR | 1.343 |
| Average depth of target | 4.8 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 3.6 |
| Total YAC | 361 |
| Broken tackles | 9 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 79.4 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -1.43 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.16 |
| Red-zone targets | 18 |
| Red-zone target share | 37.5% |
| End-zone target share | 22.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 4.45 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.45 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 39 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 51 of 51 |
| Target share | 23 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 46 of 51 |
The offense threw it 591 times. He took 25.27% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Malik Nabers | 30.69% |
| Wan'Dale Robinson ← | 25.27% |
| Darius Slayton | 12.82% |
| Tyrone Tracy | 9.57% |
| Theo Johnson | 7.76% |
| Devin Singletary | 4.33% |
He caught passes from 4 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 10 | 84 | 10.92 | 4.69 | 25.42% |
| Drew Lock | 5 | 42 | 11.2 | 5.24 | 25.84% |
| Tommy DeVito | 1 | 5 | 9.7 | 9.4 | 16.7% |
| Tim Boyle | 1 | 9 | 7.8 | 4.22 | 26.5% |
5 of his 17 games were blowouts, 27.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 10.16 in those and 9.76 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 17 against LA — 19.9 PPR on 9 targets and a 23.1% target share, in a game that finished 25-26. His worst was Week 8 against NYJ at 1.7, on 1 targets, final score 10-13. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 9.7; in the 8 decided by more, 8.2. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 8.9 points per game. He scored 8.88, 0.6% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | SF | 12-30 | 6.1 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 0 | 15.6% | 22% |
| 4 | SEA | 3-24 | 9.7 | 5 | 6 | 40 | 0 | 18.8% | 64% |
| 5 | MIA | 16-31 | 6.9 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 0 | 20% | 67% |
| 6 | BUF | 9-14 | 14.2 | 8 | 8 | 62 | 0 | 25.8% | 60% |
| 7 | WAS | 14-7 | 3.2 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 7.4% | 60% |
| 8 | NYJ | 10-13 | 1.7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8.3% | 80% |
| 9 | LV | 6-30 | 13.5 | 4 | 5 | 35 | 1 | 17.2% | 54% |
| 10 | DAL | 17-49 | 2.6 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 11.5% | 47% |
| 11 | WAS | 31-19 | 6.7 | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 15.4% | 67% |
| 12 | NE | 10-7 | 6.6 | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 20.8% | 77% |
| 14 | GB | 24-22 | 17.5 | 6 | 7 | 79 | 0 | 35% | 79% |
| 15 | NO | 6-24 | 6.5 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 11.8% | 85% |
| 16 | PHI | 25-33 | 4.6 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 0 | 25.9% | 71% |
| 17 | LA | 25-26 | 19.9 | 6 | 9 | 55 | 1 | 23.1% | 82% |
| 18 | PHI | 27-10 | 13.5 | 5 | 6 | 85 | 0 | 18.8% | 69% |
| Receptions | 60 |
| Targets | 78 |
| Receiving yards | 525 |
| Carries | 9 |
| Rushing yards | 87 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 8.88 |
| Yards per target | 6.73 |
| Catch rate | 76.92% |
| Yards per carry | 9.67 |
| Snap share | 65.6% |
| Target share | 18.36% |
| Air-yards share | 13.6% |
| WOPR | 0.371 |
| RACR | 1.679 |
| Average depth of target | 5.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 4 |
| Total YAC | 287 |
| Broken tackles | 5 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 98.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.46 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.33 |
| Red-zone targets | 3 |
| Red-zone target share | 8.6% |
| End-zone target share | 7.1% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.55 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.45 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.05 |
The offense threw it 518 times. He took 16.12% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Darius Slayton | 16.32% |
| Wan'Dale Robinson ← | 16.12% |
| Darren Waller | 15.29% |
| Saquon Barkley | 12.4% |
| Jalin Hyatt | 8.26% |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 6.82% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 6 | 33 | 9.52 | 7.27 | 18.22% |
| Tommy DeVito | 6 | 28 | 8.9 | 7.36 | 18.62% |
| Daniel Jones | 3 | 17 | 7.57 | 4.65 | 18.13% |
6 of his 15 games were blowouts, 39% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8.65 in those and 9.67 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 11 against DET — 19.4 PPR on 13 targets and a 32.5% target share, in a game that finished 18-31. His worst was Week 1 against TEN at 1.5, on 1 targets, final score 21-20. Across 6 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 3 times.
His usage that season was worth 8.8 points per game. He scored 8.6, 2.6% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEN | 21-20 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4.8% | 15% |
| 6 | BAL | 24-20 | 12.7 | 3 | 4 | 37 | 1 | 16% | 23% |
| 7 | JAX | 23-17 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 50 | 0 | 27.6% | 69% |
| 8 | SEA | 13-27 | 3.5 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 9.7% | 69% |
| 10 | HOU | 24-16 | 3.5 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 11.8% | 75% |
| 11 | DET | 18-31 | 19.4 | 9 | 13 | 100 | 0 | 32.5% | 72% |
| Receptions | 23 |
| Targets | 31 |
| Receiving yards | 227 |
| Carries | 2 |
| Rushing yards | -1 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 8.6 |
| Yards per target | 7.32 |
| Catch rate | 74.19% |
| Yards per carry | -0.5 |
| Snap share | 53.83% |
| Target share | 17.07% |
| Air-yards share | 12.77% |
| WOPR | 0.345 |
| RACR | 1.525 |
| Average depth of target | 6.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.5 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 4.4 |
| Total YAC | 126 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 105.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.97 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.21 |
| Red-zone targets | 2 |
| Red-zone target share | 4.2% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.58 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.42 |
The offense threw it 520 times. He took 6.34% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Saquon Barkley | 15.54% |
| Darius Slayton | 14.52% |
| Richie James | 14.31% |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 8.59% |
| Daniel Bellinger | 7.16% |
| Wan'Dale Robinson ← | 6.34% |