KC Concepcion
Overview
Board Oct 12Week 5 rest-of-season review, Oct 12, 2026. The three reads are where our backtested model, the betting market and his 2026 production each place him at WR; our board rank is the call.
Where his stats say he could finish from here: WR33 to WR50. Our rank stays the call.
2026 so far5 games
- 3.39 yards of separation (NGS) (18th of 99 WRs)
- target share down from 24.4% to 13.8% (last 2 games vs the three before)
- share of CLE's air yards down from 21% to 11% (last 2 games vs the three before)
Ranked among 103 qualified WRs this season.
80% range 3.8–11.6 half-PPR points a game. Biggest inputs: college target/carry share +0.3, college seasons +0.3, catches per game +0.3, college production +0.3. The model informs the rank; it does not set it.
Week 6
Lines Oct 14CLE
BALUpdated Oct 14, 2026, built on a CLE team total of 18.5. Rank is among every WR we project this week.
Allowed to WRs per game across 5 games. Best games against them: Chris Olave (W2, 22.6 PPR, 8/10 86 yds); Carnell Tate (W4, 21.5 PPR, 9/12 145 yds); CeeDee Lamb (W3, 20.2 PPR, 7/8 112 yds).
EPA ranks entering Week 6: #23 against the pass, #13 against the run (1 = best defense).
Big number: receiving fantasy points BAL allows a game to WRs in that zone. # = its rank of 32. Green tag = KC Concepcion's share of his targets in that zone this season. Depth is air yards at the catch point; 5 games, through Week 5. Tap a zone for the detail.
1-5 rec on 1 tgt
Game log
2026 · through W5Every gametap a game for the detail
CLE +8.5 (closing) · total 40.5 · 89°F, wind 3 mph · 7 days rest
Projected 9.0 (WR32) · CLE +8.5 (closing) · total 41.5 · 86°F, wind 4 mph · 7 days rest
Projected 8.8 (WR35) · CLE +2.5 (closing) · total 41.5 · 68°F, wind 12 mph · 7 days rest
Projected 9.0 (WR35) · CLE +2.5 (closing) · total 38.5 · 77°F, wind 11 mph · 4 days rest · prime time · division game
Projected 8.4 (WR37) · CLE +2.5 (closing) · total 38.5 · 10 days rest
D# = the opponent's rank against WRs entering that week (1 = stingiest, 32 = softest). Finish = his rank at WR that week.
Usage
What changedlast 3 full games vs. before
| W1, W2 | W3, W4, W5 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Snap share | 67.5% | 64.7% | −2.8 |
| Target share | 21.4% | 19.1% | −2.3 |
| Air-yard share | 19.4% | 48.5% | +29.1 |
| Targets a game | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 |
Games he left injured are left out of both sides.
CLE target treeshare of team targets, 2026
Season to date, games each player played.
Role details2026, through Week 5
Advanced
Percentile against the WRs on our charts (each stat's minimum is next to it), 2026 through Week 5. 50 is the middle of the pack. Tap a bubble for his rank.
Expected vs. actualPPR, from this season's play-by-play
0 TDs on 0.55 expected. Expected points price every target by depth and field position and every carry by field position. Do touchdowns regress? ›
Splits
As a receiver2026 charted plays, through Week 5
| Situation | Tgt | Rec-Yds-TD | Yds/tgt | EPA/tgt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All targets | 29 | 18-149-0 | 5.18.2 | 0.030.27 |
| Red zone10% of targets | 3 | 3-9-0 | 3.04.4 | -0.250.18 |
| Third down10% of targets | 3 | 1-6-0 | 2.07.1 | -0.610.14 |
| Score within 772% of targets | 21 | 12-102-0 | 4.98.1 | 0.190.26 |
| Trailing by 8+24% of targets | 7 | 6-47-0 | 6.78.2 | -0.390.28 |
| Leading by 8+3% of targets | 1 | 0-0-0 | 0.09.3 | -0.610.37 |
| Two-minute drill7% of targets | 2 | 1-6-0 | 3.07.5 | -0.060.17 |
| Vs. the blitz38% of targets | 11 | 9-84-0 | 7.67.9 | 0.310.23 |
| No blitz62% of targets | 18 | 9-65-0 | 3.68.4 | -0.150.29 |
| Play action24% of targets | 7 | 3-19-0 | 2.710.4 | -0.820.41 |
| With motion48% of targets | 14 | 9-86-0 | 6.18.3 | 0.400.32 |
| Screens24% of targets | 7 | 6-44-0 | 6.34.7 | -0.47-0.20 |
Small grey number = every WR in that situation. Green or red = a clear gap either way. 20 of his 29 charted targets were catchable; 0 drops, 2 of 4 contested caught.
Team
CLECleveland Browns offense, 2026 through Week 5. Rank 1 = most. Scheme rates from FTN charting through Week 5.
Game by gamescore, implied total, pass rate (over expected), QB
| Week | Score | Implied | Pass rate | QB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1vs JAX | 10-34 | 16.0 | 55%−16.4 | Watson22 att |
| W2vs TB | 23-19 | 16.5 | 60%−0.2 | Watson30 att |
| W3vs CAR | 21-18 | 19.5 | 55%−5.9 | Watson30 att |
| W4vs PIT | 27-24 | 18.0 | 58%+1.5 | Watson33 att |
| W5vs NYJ | 12-17 | 18.0 | 63%−7.6 | Watson33 att |
Depth chartWR, Oct 14
Scheduleeach defense's current rank vs WRs
Green = soft, red = stingy (1 = stingiest, 32 = softest), ranked on fantasy points allowed to WRs so far. Gold underline = fantasy playoffs. Does strength of schedule matter? ›
Head coach: Todd Monken. QB: Deshaun Watson (most pass attempts, Week 5).
Charts
KC Concepcion is highlighted on each chart. Swipe for more; tap a dot for the player. Every chart saves and shares as an image on the Charts page.
Career
Season by season
| Year | G | Rec-Yds-TD | Pts/g | xFP/g |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026CLE | 5 | 18-149-029 tgt, 20.0% share | 4.6WR89 | 9.3−12.6 |
Under points a game: his rank at WR in points a game (8+ games; 2026: 2+ games). xFP = expected PPR a game from his usage; under it, the season's points over expected. Routes = share of team dropbacks he ran a route (through 2025).
Health
Questionable · concern medium · through Week 6. Head injury (helmet-to-helmet hit) in Week 5; must clear concussion protocol for Week 6 vs Baltimore. Denzel Boston is the Browns receiver to start if he sits.
Our note, Oct 13, 2026 · Forbes injury report (Tue 10/13); CBS Sports injury page (Mon 10/12)
2026 injury reportofficial, week by week
✓ = not listed. Letters = game status (Q, D, O) or worst practice that week (LP limited, DNP did not practice). Tap a week for the detail.
Teammates on the report
Our current notes first, then Sleeper designations. What happens when a starter is ruled out? ›
Value
Market Oct 10Market value on a 0–10,000 scale, through Oct 10, 2026. Faint stretches are estimates between real readings. Gold = peak.
Teal dot = today (5,255). Box = the middle half of outcomes, white line = the median, whiskers = 10th to 90th percentile. WRs about 22 valued near #65 overall: real 1-year moves since 2022, weighted by exact age and market rank (about 103 players' worth).
135.5 overall, WR54. Underdog 119.0 · CBS 126.0 · Yahoo 132.1 · Sleeper 132.9 · ESPN 150.8