Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 21.31 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 6.9, usage worth 17.1.
27 years old · 6 seasons of experience · 2020 draft class
| SLEEPER | 6.8 |
| ESPN | 8.1 |
| YAHOO | 7.1 |
| UNDERDOG | 7.8 |
| CBS | 5.5 |
| FFA | 6 |
| Goes around | Round 1, pick 7 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | RB4 |
| Bye week | 13 |
| ADP standard deviation | 1.1 picks |
Our board has him at 292.1 points, 18.3 per game — 1,379 rushing yards, 13.9 rushing TDs, 34.2 catches. That is RB1, 6 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 14.4 points per game to a ceiling of 24.4, with the median at 18.3. Boom rate 34%, bust rate 21%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 6.9 on consensus and our board has him 6. Those agree, so there is no market disagreement to exploit. The question is whether you want the profile, not whether it is mispriced.
17 rushing TDs and a 2,378-yard full-season pace through the first 10 weeks last year, before Daniel Jones got hurt and the offense collapsed to a bottom-25 unit — a level of production almost no back is capable of hitting even for a hot stretch. The knock is entirely systemic (QB health, Pittman gone, unproven backup weapons), not about Taylor himself.
buy · high conviction · 2026-08Indianapolis Colts returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1. Daniel Jones at quarterback, Shane Steichen as head coach, Jim Bob Cooter calling it. The offense projects to 32.5 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 26.1 rushes.
In: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (wr3), Deion Burks (wr5), Seth McGowan (rb3), Anderson Castle (rb4). Out: Michael Pittman Jr (wr1), Adonai Mitchell (wr4), Ameer Abdullah (rb3).
The projected carry split across the offense:
| Jonathan Taylor ← | 65.1% |
| DJ Giddens | 23% |
| Seth McGowan | 8.7% |
| Anderson Castle | 3.3% |
What the offense looks like: The Colts seriously need Daniel Jones to BE THAT GUY. Taylor, Downs, and especially Alec Pierce rely on having a highly productive passing game that helps lift the entire offense as whole. Tyler Warren has shown flashes of being the next George Kittle, really awesome player.
Key additions: Colts brought in WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine in free agency. Westbrook-Ikhine was a highly dynamic WR while in Tennessee. Could be nohting, but could help.
Key departures: WR Michael Pittman Jr traded to Steelers. QB Anthony Richardson requested a trade & will not play again for the Colts.
Notes: Anthony Richardson will be traded or released. Daniel Jones on track for full recovery from torn achilles & landed extension. Very positive for offense. Jonathan Taylor aging but HIGHLY productive. Alec Pierce lands MASSVIVE 4 year contract & Colts invested in him as their WR1. Josh Downs is primed for an increase workload & could truly break out in 2026. Michael Pittman Jr. traded to Steelers. Tyler Warren is a top TE in dynasty & could have a MASSIVE season next year.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Daniel Jones returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (32.1 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 32.5 att/g.
| Projected carry share | 65.1% |
| Projected carries per game | 13.9 |
| Projected carries, full season | 237 |
| Last season, carries per game | 19 |
That is a reduction of 5.1 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 26.1 rushing attempts a game.
Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.
Offensive environment: IND rates 23.3 against a league average of 23, 0.3 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +1.4 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | -2.4 · harder |
| Weeks 12–17 | +9.3 · easier |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +8.6 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 3 | Tyler Goodson | +8.8 |
| 2022 | 2 | Deon Jackson | +6.7 |
| 2023 | 3 | Tyler Goodson | +3.2 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +11.4% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 2024 | 17.2 | 66% | +0.9% |
| Josh Jacobs | 2022 | 19.3 | 53% | +5.5% |
| Tony Pollard | 2024 | 12.5 | 49% | -1.9% |
| Josh Jacobs | 2023 | 13.9 | 48% | +44.2% |
| Joe Mixon | 2024 | 17.2 | 48% | -47.6% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 1 lost it and 2 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2020, round 2, pick 41 by IND |
| College | Wisconsin |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| Height | 5′10″ |
| Weight | 226 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.39s |
| Vertical | 36″ |
| Broad jump | 123″ |
| 3-cone | 7.01s |
| Shuttle | 4.24s |
| Career PPR per game | 18.9 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.6 |
| Boom rate | 22.7% |
| Bust rate | 18.2% |
| Games missed per season | 1.3 |
| Injury history | Ankle, Thumb |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.51 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 10 against ATL — 49.6 PPR on 35 touches and a 11.5% target share, in a game that finished 31-25. His worst was Week 18 against HOU at 5.9, on 16 touches, final score 30-38. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 7 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 18.5; in the 7 decided by more, 25.3. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 17.1 points per game. He scored 21.31, 24.6% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 2 against 0.74 expected, a gap of 1.3.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | 33-8 | 12.8 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 18 | 71 | 0 | 10.3% | 71% |
| 2 | DEN | 29-28 | 29.5 | 2 | 2 | 50 | 25 | 165 | 1 | 6.1% | 93% |
| 3 | TEN | 41-20 | 32.8 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 17 | 102 | 3 | 16% | 79% |
| 4 | LA | 20-27 | 14.6 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 17 | 76 | 0 | 15.6% | 87% |
| 5 | LV | 40-6 | 31.6 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 17 | 66 | 3 | 12.9% | 74% |
| 6 | ARI | 31-27 | 23.7 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 21 | 123 | 1 | 13.3% | 92% |
| 7 | LAC | 38-24 | 34.2 | 3 | 3 | 38 | 16 | 94 | 3 | 9.4% | 87% |
| 8 | TEN | 38-14 | 37.4 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 12 | 153 | 3 | 7.1% | 75% |
| 9 | PIT | 20-27 | 7.7 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 14 | 45 | 0 | 4.2% | 79% |
| 10 | ATL | 31-25 | 49.6 | 3 | 3 | 42 | 32 | 244 | 3 | 11.5% | 91% |
| 12 | KC | 20-23 | 8.6 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 58 | 0 | 9.7% | 90% |
| 13 | HOU | 16-20 | 15.1 | 3 | 5 | 36 | 21 | 85 | 0 | 20% | 98% |
| 14 | JAX | 19-36 | 11.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 74 | 1 | 0% | 74% |
| 15 | SEA | 16-18 | 13.1 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 25 | 87 | 0 | 15.4% | 85% |
| 16 | SF | 27-48 | 16.9 | 3 | 3 | 33 | 16 | 46 | 1 | 8.3% | 88% |
| 17 | JAX | 17-23 | 17.4 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 21 | 70 | 1 | 20.7% | 89% |
| 18 | HOU | 30-38 | 5.9 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 14 | 26 | 0 | 6.1% | 52% |
| Receptions | 46 |
| Targets | 55 |
| Receiving yards | 378 |
| Carries | 323 |
| Rushing yards | 1,585 |
| Touchdowns | 20 |
| Points per game | 21.31 |
| Yards per target | 6.87 |
| Catch rate | 83.64% |
| Yards per carry | 4.91 |
| Snap share | 82.59% |
| Target share | 10.98% |
| Air-yards share | -1.11% |
| WOPR | 0.158 |
| RACR | -0.13 |
| Average depth of target | -0.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 9.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -1.2 |
| Total YAC | 434 |
| Broken tackles | 8 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 107.4 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.54 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 1.11 |
| Red-zone targets | 4 |
| Red-zone target share | 5.2% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 69.3% |
| Goal-line carry share | 65.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.74 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.26 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 12.63 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 4 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 12 of 49 |
| Target share | 14 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 33 of 49 |
The offense threw it 546 times. He took 10.42% of the targets. 4 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Tyler Warren | 21.21% |
| Michael Pittman | 21.02% |
| Josh Downs | 16.67% |
| Alec Pierce | 15.91% |
| Jonathan Taylor ← | 10.42% |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 3.79% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 12 | 40 | 24.8 | 7.6 | 11.34% |
| Philip Rivers | 3 | 13 | 15.8 | 4.69 | 14.8% |
| Riley Leonard | 2 | 2 | 8.65 | 6.5 | 3.05% |
6 of his 17 games were blowouts, 39.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 23.82 in those and 18.52 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 16 against TEN — 39.8 PPR on 29 touches and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 38-30. His worst was Week 12 against DET at 3.5, on 11 touches, final score 6-24. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 18.9; in the 4 decided by more, 13.9. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 17.3 points per game. He scored 17.48, 1.7% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | 27-29 | 10.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 48 | 1 | 0% | 96% |
| 2 | GB | 10-16 | 15.5 | 2 | 4 | 32 | 12 | 103 | 0 | 12.9% | 52% |
| 3 | CHI | 21-16 | 26.5 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 23 | 110 | 2 | 11.1% | 88% |
| 4 | PIT | 27-24 | 19.8 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 21 | 88 | 1 | 14.3% | 73% |
| 8 | HOU | 20-23 | 18.7 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 20 | 105 | 1 | 3.2% | 81% |
| 9 | MIN | 13-21 | 8.9 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 13 | 48 | 0 | 18.5% | 72% |
| 10 | BUF | 20-30 | 14.2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 21 | 114 | 0 | 11.4% | 83% |
| 11 | NYJ | 28-27 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 57 | 0 | 7.1% | 90% |
| 12 | DET | 6-24 | 3.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 35 | 0 | 0% | 96% |
| 13 | NE | 25-24 | 17.3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 25 | 96 | 1 | 4.2% | 89% |
| 15 | DEN | 13-31 | 10.1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 107 | 0 | 5.6% | 68% |
| 16 | TEN | 38-30 | 39.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 218 | 3 | 0% | 76% |
| 17 | NYG | 33-45 | 27.6 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 32 | 125 | 2 | 10.8% | 88% |
| 18 | JAX | 26-23 | 25 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 34 | 177 | 1 | 5.1% | 72% |
| Receptions | 18 |
| Targets | 31 |
| Receiving yards | 136 |
| Carries | 303 |
| Rushing yards | 1,431 |
| Touchdowns | 12 |
| Points per game | 17.48 |
| Yards per target | 4.39 |
| Catch rate | 58.06% |
| Yards per carry | 4.72 |
| Snap share | 80.29% |
| Target share | 7.44% |
| Air-yards share | -0.42% |
| WOPR | 0.109 |
| RACR | -1.25 |
| Average depth of target | -0.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 8.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -0.8 |
| Total YAC | 150 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 66.1 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.84 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -1.64 |
| Red-zone targets | 3 |
| Red-zone target share | 4.7% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 56.9% |
| Goal-line carry share | 50% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.6 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.4 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 10.46 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 7 of 46 |
| Yards per target | 37 of 46 |
| Target share | 32 of 46 |
| Air-yards share | 21 of 46 |
The offense threw it 513 times. He took 6.31% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Michael Pittman | 22.61% |
| Josh Downs | 21.79% |
| Alec Pierce | 14.05% |
| Adonai Mitchell | 11.2% |
| Jonathan Taylor ← | 6.31% |
| Kylen Granson | 6.31% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Richardson | 9 | 12 | 16.58 | 6.92 | 4.9% |
| Joe Flacco | 5 | 19 | 19.1 | 2.79 | 12.02% |
2 of his 14 games were blowouts, 5.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.8 in those and 18.93 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 18 against HOU — 27.6 PPR on 32 touches and a 8.7% target share, in a game that finished 19-23. His worst was Week 5 against TEN at 4.4, on 7 touches, final score 23-16. Across 10 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 17.7; in the 4 decided by more, 12.6. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 13.5 points per game. He scored 15.64, 16% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | TEN | 23-16 | 4.4 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 6 | 18 | 0 | 4.2% | 15% |
| 6 | JAX | 20-37 | 11.5 | 5 | 6 | 46 | 8 | 19 | 0 | 11.5% | 42% |
| 7 | CLE | 38-39 | 21 | 3 | 4 | 45 | 18 | 75 | 1 | 18.2% | 50% |
| 8 | NO | 27-38 | 10.7 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 95 | 0 | 5.3% | 61% |
| 9 | CAR | 27-13 | 17.9 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 18 | 47 | 1 | 20.8% | 74% |
| 10 | NE | 10-6 | 14.5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 69 | 1 | 3.8% | 88% |
| 12 | TB | 27-20 | 21.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 91 | 2 | 0% | 58% |
| 16 | ATL | 10-29 | 10.3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 43 | 1 | 2.9% | 59% |
| 17 | LV | 23-20 | 17.4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 21 | 96 | 1 | 5% | 63% |
| 18 | HOU | 19-23 | 27.6 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 30 | 188 | 1 | 8.7% | 77% |
| Receptions | 19 |
| Targets | 23 |
| Receiving yards | 153 |
| Carries | 169 |
| Rushing yards | 741 |
| Touchdowns | 8 |
| Points per game | 15.64 |
| Yards per target | 6.65 |
| Catch rate | 82.61% |
| Yards per carry | 4.38 |
| Snap share | 58.7% |
| Target share | 8.04% |
| Air-yards share | -1.92% |
| WOPR | 0.106 |
| RACR | 0.494 |
| Average depth of target | -0.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 9.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -1.1 |
| Total YAC | 174 |
| Broken tackles | 5 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 108.9 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.32 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -1.02 |
| Red-zone targets | 4 |
| Red-zone target share | 6.2% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 34.3% |
| Goal-line carry share | 38.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.97 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.03 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 6.35 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 12 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 9 of 49 |
| Target share | 28 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 41 of 49 |
The offense threw it 574 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Michael Pittman | 28.57% |
| Josh Downs | 17.95% |
| Alec Pierce | 11.9% |
| Kylen Granson | 9.16% |
| Zack Moss | 6.78% |
| Will Mallory | 4.76% |
2 of his 10 games were blowouts, 13.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 10.9 in those and 17.67 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 1 against HOU — 27.5 PPR on 38 touches and a 14.3% target share, in a game that finished 20-20. His worst was Week 15 against MIN at 2.3, on 1 touches, final score 36-39. Across 11 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 13.8; in the 3 decided by more, 12. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 16.4 points per game. He scored 13.31, 18.6% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | 20-20 | 27.5 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 31 | 161 | 1 | 14.3% | 76% |
| 2 | JAX | 0-24 | 7.3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 54 | 0 | 3.4% | 74% |
| 3 | KC | 20-17 | 12.1 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 21 | 71 | 0 | 13.9% | 76% |
| 4 | TEN | 17-24 | 3.3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 42 | 0 | 8.3% | 88% |
| 7 | TEN | 10-19 | 15.5 | 7 | 8 | 27 | 10 | 58 | 0 | 19.5% | 55% |
| 8 | WAS | 16-17 | 5.6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 76 | 0 | 4.3% | 69% |
| 10 | LV | 25-20 | 24.3 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 22 | 147 | 1 | 7.4% | 94% |
| 11 | PHI | 16-17 | 16.4 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 22 | 84 | 1 | 12.9% | 75% |
| 12 | PIT | 17-24 | 18.8 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 20 | 86 | 1 | 12.5% | 92% |
| 13 | DAL | 19-54 | 13.3 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 21 | 82 | 0 | 11.4% | 82% |
| 15 | MIN | 36-39 | 2.3 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2% | 3% |
| Receptions | 28 |
| Targets | 40 |
| Receiving yards | 143 |
| Carries | 192 |
| Rushing yards | 861 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 13.31 |
| Yards per target | 3.58 |
| Catch rate | 70% |
| Yards per carry | 4.48 |
| Snap share | 71.27% |
| Target share | 10.1% |
| Air-yards share | -3.08% |
| WOPR | 0.129 |
| RACR | -1.13 |
| Average depth of target | -1.7 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -2.2 |
| Total YAC | 204 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 64.9 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -1.59 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -2.61 |
| Red-zone targets | 3 |
| Red-zone target share | 4.8% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 43.8% |
| Goal-line carry share | 56.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.71 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.71 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 5.62 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 16 of 42 |
| Yards per target | 39 of 42 |
| Target share | 15 of 42 |
| Air-yards share | 42 of 42 |
The offense threw it 604 times. He took 6.91% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Michael Pittman | 24.35% |
| Parris Campbell | 15.72% |
| Alec Pierce | 13.47% |
| Jonathan Taylor ← | 6.91% |
| Kylen Granson | 6.91% |
| Jelani Woods | 6.91% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 10 | 39 | 14.08 | 3.67 | 10.68% |
| Sam Ehlinger | 1 | 1 | 5.6 | 0 | 4.3% |
2 of his 11 games were blowouts, 14.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 10.3 in those and 13.79 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 11 against BUF — 53.4 PPR on 35 touches and a 15% target share, in a game that finished 41-15. His worst was Week 2 against LA at 6.3, on 16 touches, final score 24-27. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 9 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 19; in the 10 decided by more, 24. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 16.7 points per game. He scored 21.95, 31.5% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA | 16-28 | 17.6 | 6 | 7 | 60 | 17 | 56 | 0 | 20% | 55% |
| 2 | LA | 24-27 | 6.3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 51 | 0 | 2.9% | 45% |
| 3 | TEN | 16-25 | 8.2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 64 | 0 | 2.9% | 48% |
| 4 | MIA | 27-17 | 20.4 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 16 | 103 | 1 | 9.4% | 51% |
| 5 | BAL | 25-31 | 31.9 | 3 | 4 | 116 | 15 | 53 | 2 | 11.8% | 52% |
| 6 | HOU | 31-3 | 28.8 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 14 | 145 | 2 | 11.1% | 65% |
| 7 | SF | 30-18 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 107 | 1 | 11.5% | 69% |
| 8 | TEN | 31-34 | 21.2 | 3 | 4 | 52 | 16 | 70 | 1 | 8.3% | 74% |
| 9 | NYJ | 45-30 | 34 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 19 | 172 | 2 | 6.9% | 69% |
| 10 | JAX | 23-17 | 24.6 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 21 | 116 | 1 | 24.2% | 84% |
| 11 | BUF | 41-15 | 53.4 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 32 | 185 | 5 | 15% | 83% |
| 12 | TB | 31-38 | 19.7 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 16 | 83 | 1 | 11.6% | 71% |
| 13 | HOU | 31-0 | 24.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 143 | 2 | 0% | 76% |
| 15 | NE | 27-17 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 170 | 1 | 0% | 98% |
| 16 | ARI | 22-16 | 10.8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 27 | 108 | 0 | 7.1% | 79% |
| 17 | LV | 20-23 | 18.4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 108 | 1 | 8.3% | 71% |
| 18 | JAX | 11-26 | 12.5 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 15 | 77 | 0 | 13.8% | 91% |
| Receptions | 40 |
| Targets | 51 |
| Receiving yards | 360 |
| Carries | 332 |
| Rushing yards | 1,811 |
| Touchdowns | 20 |
| Points per game | 21.95 |
| Yards per target | 7.06 |
| Catch rate | 78.43% |
| Yards per carry | 5.45 |
| Snap share | 69.47% |
| Target share | 9.69% |
| Air-yards share | -1.17% |
| WOPR | 0.138 |
| RACR | -0.712 |
| Average depth of target | -0.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 10.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -1.2 |
| Total YAC | 406 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 109.2 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.25 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 2.03 |
| Red-zone targets | 3 |
| Red-zone target share | 4.4% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 82.4% |
| Goal-line carry share | 85.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.57 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.57 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 16.9 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 2 of 50 |
| Yards per target | 9 of 50 |
| Target share | 19 of 50 |
| Air-yards share | 46 of 50 |
The offense threw it 521 times. He took 10.18% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Michael Pittman | 25.75% |
| Zach Pascal | 13.77% |
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 11.38% |
| Jonathan Taylor ← | 10.18% |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 8.98% |
| Jack Doyle | 8.58% |
3 of his 17 games were blowouts, 28.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 35.5 in those and 18.99 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 17 against JAX — 38.4 PPR on 32 touches and a 7.7% target share, in a game that finished 28-14. His worst was Week 8 against DET at 5.1, on 13 touches, final score 41-21. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 16.6; in the 8 decided by more, 17.1. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 14.3 points per game. He scored 16.85, 18.1% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 0 against 1.01 expected, a gap of -1.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX | 20-27 | 14.9 | 6 | 6 | 67 | 9 | 22 | 0 | 13% | 35% |
| 2 | MIN | 28-11 | 19 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 26 | 101 | 1 | 8% | 67% |
| 3 | NYJ | 36-7 | 13.2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 59 | 1 | 4% | 41% |
| 4 | CHI | 19-11 | 8.9 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 17 | 68 | 0 | 3.6% | 46% |
| 5 | CLE | 23-32 | 15.4 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 12 | 57 | 1 | 9.4% | 55% |
| 6 | CIN | 31-27 | 15.5 | 4 | 4 | 55 | 12 | 60 | 0 | 9.5% | 59% |
| 8 | DET | 41-21 | 5.1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 22 | 0 | 6.1% | 34% |
| 9 | BAL | 10-24 | 9.4 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 27 | 1 | 5% | 32% |
| 10 | TEN | 34-17 | 5.7 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 7 | 12 | 0 | 5.6% | 24% |
| 11 | GB | 34-31 | 15.4 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 22 | 90 | 0 | 11.4% | 55% |
| 13 | HOU | 26-20 | 22.5 | 3 | 3 | 44 | 13 | 91 | 1 | 8.6% | 48% |
| 14 | LV | 44-27 | 30.5 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 20 | 150 | 2 | 7.4% | 56% |
| 15 | HOU | 27-20 | 19.5 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 16 | 83 | 1 | 17.2% | 69% |
| 16 | PIT | 24-28 | 19.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 74 | 2 | 0% | 58% |
| 17 | JAX | 28-14 | 38.4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 30 | 253 | 2 | 7.7% | 82% |
| Receptions | 36 |
| Targets | 39 |
| Receiving yards | 299 |
| Carries | 232 |
| Rushing yards | 1,169 |
| Touchdowns | 12 |
| Points per game | 16.85 |
| Yards per target | 7.67 |
| Catch rate | 92.31% |
| Yards per carry | 5.04 |
| Snap share | 50.73% |
| Target share | 7.77% |
| Air-yards share | -0.95% |
| WOPR | 0.109 |
| RACR | -1.607 |
| Average depth of target | -1.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 10.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -1.9 |
| Total YAC | 367 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 107.2 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.88 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 1 |
| Red-zone targets | 7 |
| Red-zone target share | 8% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 54.6% |
| Goal-line carry share | 52.9% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.01 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.01 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 10.25 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 8 of 47 |
| Yards per target | 6 of 47 |
| Target share | 24 of 47 |
| Air-yards share | 39 of 47 |
The offense threw it 552 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| T.Y. Hilton | 17.38% |
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 14.21% |
| Zach Pascal | 13.27% |
| Michael Pittman | 11.4% |
| Trey Burton | 8.79% |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 7.29% |
5 of his 15 games were blowouts, 29.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 14.7 in those and 16.59 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about Jonathan Taylor →