Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 10.51 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 114.5, usage worth 7.8.
26 years old · 3 seasons of experience · 2023 draft class
| SLEEPER | 90.2 |
| ESPN | 137 |
| YAHOO | 100.1 |
| UNDERDOG | 124.7 |
| CBS | 130.8 |
| FFA | 110 |
| Goes around | Round 10, pick 7 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | TE14 |
| Bye week | 7 |
| ADP standard deviation | 22.9 picks |
Our board has him at 139.2 points, 9.2 per game — 50.2 catches, 626 yards, 4.4 TDs. That is TE3, 110 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 8.1 points per game to a ceiling of 13.2, with the median at 9.2. Boom rate 43%, bust rate 11%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 114.5 on consensus and our board has him 110. We rank him 4.5 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
has genuinely struggled to stay healthy and available across his career, and the team is reportedly NOT planning to significantly expand his workload even though the raw talent/ opportunity would otherwise support it — read as the team itself signaling limited trust in his ability to hold up under a heavier role, not just bad luck.
hold · medium conviction · 2026-08Buffalo Bills returns 3 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1, hc, oc. Josh Allen at quarterback, Joe Brady as head coach, Pete Carmichael Jr. calling it. The offense projects to 31.5 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 29.2 rushes.
In: Kyle Allen (qb2), DJ Moore (wr1), Skyler Bell (wr4), Trent Sherfield (wr7). Out: Curtis Samuel (wr4).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 14.4%, with a bear case of 13.4% and a bull case of 15% and a full range of 11.7% to 16%. That comes from 25 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| DJ Moore | 17.1% |
| Khalil Shakir | 16.8% |
| Dalton Kincaid ← | 14.4% |
| Keon Coleman | 11.7% |
| James Cook | 9.4% |
| Dawson Knox | 7.4% |
What the offense looks like: This is a high powered offense centered around Josh Allen & James Cook. Over the past few years, the Bills have struggled to surround Allen with the weapons he needs in the passsing game. Kincaid HAS NOT made the leap or returned his 1st round draft capital despite what people say. The move to get DJ Moore was very intentional & GM Brandon Beane believes Moore is a locked in WR1 for Buffalo. Shakir is going to be a strong contributor but the DJ Moore trade likely hurts his value.
Key additions: Bills traded a 2nd round pick for to Bears for WR DJ Moore & extended on 4 year deal. C Lloyd Cushenberry 1 year deal. G/C Austin Corbett from Panthers (starter). WR Trent Sherfield from Minnesota (depth).
Key departures: David Edwards (starting LG), WR Curtis Samuel was released. Back up QB Mitch Trubisky signed with the Titans.
Notes: The Bills fired Sean McDermott following their loss to Denver in the playoffs in 2025. Joe Brady (standout OC) was promoted to HCThe Keon Coleman breakout may not ever happen. Bills traded for DJ Moore from Bears & under contract for 4 years. Large opportunity to emerge as main pass catcher in offense. Shakir reliable but no true ceiling yet. Allen 30 but still elite. Bills draft Skyler Bell WR from UConn 6 foor 192 LB 4.40 second 40 yard dash. Large opportunity for Bell in long run. Kincaid health remains a question. Opted to not get PCL surgery AGAIN & new HC Joe Brady says they will manage pain throughout 2026. James Cook will continue to produce as a top 10 PPR fantasy back IF he stays healthy. Very underrated runner.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Josh Allen returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (29.1 att/g); Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 31.5 att/g; New OC Pete Carmichael Jr. — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Joe Brady.
25 historical comps for TEs age ~24, prior share 16.5%, same team, OC change. Distribution: median 16.5%, p25-p75 [13.9%, 18.4%], tails [9.1%, 20.9%]. Closest comps: Pat Freiermuth 2022→2023 (PIT: 17.5%→15.4%); Dallas Goedert 2020→2021 (PHI: 16.8%→21.1%); Mike Gesicki 2020→2021 (MIA: 15.5%→18.4%). Adjustment: flat from opportunity_breakout (volume must hold)
self-anchored 58% to own 16.5% role (3yr), 42% to comp median 16.5%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: BUF rates 26.9 against a league average of 23, 3.9 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -2.3 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | -4.4 · harder |
| Weeks 12–17 | -1.6 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +3.2 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2 | Dawson Knox | +4 |
| 2025 | 2 | Jackson Hawes | +0.4 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +13.4% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.3 elite seasons and 2.3 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Fant | 2022 | 7.2 | 64% | -2.6% |
| Pat Freiermuth | 2023 | 7 | 61% | -8.2% |
| Irv Smith | 2022 | 6.9 | 59% | -17.9% |
| Mike Gesicki | 2021 | 9.7 | 57% | -24.7% |
| Kyle Pitts | 2023 | 8.1 | 57% | -26.1% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 0 gained value, 5 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2023, round 1, pick 25 by BUF |
| College | Utah |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| Height | 6′4″ |
| Weight | 246 lb |
| Career PPR per game | 9.3 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.6 |
| Boom rate | 18.8% |
| Bust rate | 18.8% |
| Games missed per season | 1.3 |
| Injury history | Knee, Hamstring |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | -0.22 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 9 against KC — 22.1 PPR on 6 targets and a 24% target share, in a game that finished 28-21. His worst was Week 16 against CLE at 0, on 1 targets, final score 23-20. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 12.4; in the 6 decided by more, 8.7. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 7.8 points per game. He scored 10.51, 45.3% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 5 against 2.27 expected, a gap of 2.7.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 41-40 | 14.8 | 4 | 4 | 48 | 1 | 8.9% | 51% |
| 2 | NYJ | 30-10 | 7.7 | 4 | 6 | 37 | 0 | 24% | 48% |
| 3 | MIA | 31-21 | 17.6 | 5 | 6 | 66 | 1 | 22.2% | 55% |
| 4 | NO | 31-19 | 9.8 | 1 | 2 | 28 | 1 | 9.1% | 37% |
| 5 | NE | 20-23 | 16.8 | 6 | 6 | 108 | 0 | 20% | 54% |
| 8 | CAR | 40-9 | 3.3 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 13% | 22% |
| 9 | KC | 28-21 | 22.1 | 6 | 6 | 101 | 1 | 24% | 35% |
| 10 | MIA | 13-30 | 5.7 | 2 | 3 | 37 | 0 | 7.7% | 26% |
| 14 | CIN | 39-34 | 14.1 | 4 | 5 | 41 | 1 | 18.5% | 34% |
| 15 | NE | 35-31 | 6.4 | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 15.4% | 36% |
| 16 | CLE | 23-20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5.6% | 38% |
| 18 | NYJ | 35-8 | 7.8 | 3 | 3 | 48 | 0 | 10.7% | 13% |
| Receptions | 39 |
| Targets | 49 |
| Receiving yards | 571 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 10.51 |
| Yards per target | 11.65 |
| Catch rate | 79.59% |
| Snap share | 37.42% |
| Target share | 14.92% |
| Air-yards share | 20.71% |
| WOPR | 0.367 |
| RACR | 1.181 |
| Average depth of target | 9.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.6 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8 |
| Total YAC | 259 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 149.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 3.28 |
| Red-zone targets | 10 |
| Red-zone target share | 12% |
| End-zone target share | 20.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.27 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 5 |
| Receiving TD luck | 2.73 |
The offense threw it 495 times. He took 10.23% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Khalil Shakir | 19.83% |
| Keon Coleman | 12.32% |
| Dawson Knox | 10.23% |
| Dalton Kincaid ← | 10.23% |
| James Cook | 8.35% |
| Josh Palmer | 7.72% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 11 | 46 | 10.75 | 11.37 | 15.31% |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 1 | 3 | 7.8 | 16 | 10.7% |
4 of his 12 games were blowouts, 19.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.13 in those and 12.37 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 3 against JAX — 13.1 PPR on 5 targets and a 16.7% target share, in a game that finished 47-10. His worst was Week 1 against ARI at 2.1, on 2 targets, final score 34-28. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6.8; in the 7 decided by more, 8.6. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 9.3 points per game. He scored 7.75, 23.4% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI | 34-28 | 2.1 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 8.7% | 84% |
| 2 | MIA | 31-10 | 7.3 | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 22.2% | 42% |
| 3 | JAX | 47-10 | 13.1 | 3 | 5 | 41 | 1 | 16.7% | 53% |
| 4 | BAL | 10-35 | 9.7 | 5 | 7 | 47 | 0 | 25.9% | 63% |
| 5 | HOU | 20-23 | 5.4 | 2 | 6 | 34 | 0 | 20.7% | 62% |
| 6 | NYJ | 23-20 | 11.1 | 6 | 7 | 51 | 0 | 30.4% | 80% |
| 7 | TEN | 34-10 | 8.2 | 3 | 6 | 52 | 0 | 18.8% | 73% |
| 8 | SEA | 31-10 | 13.1 | 4 | 7 | 31 | 1 | 21.9% | 54% |
| 9 | MIA | 30-27 | 7.2 | 4 | 10 | 32 | 0 | 27.8% | 79% |
| 10 | IND | 30-20 | 4.4 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 14.3% | 24% |
| 15 | DET | 48-42 | 9.3 | 4 | 7 | 53 | 0 | 21.9% | 49% |
| 16 | NE | 24-21 | 5.5 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 0 | 25.9% | 34% |
| 17 | NYJ | 40-14 | 4.4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 7.4% | 44% |
| Receptions | 44 |
| Targets | 75 |
| Receiving yards | 448 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 7.75 |
| Yards per target | 5.97 |
| Catch rate | 58.67% |
| Snap share | 57% |
| Target share | 20.2% |
| Air-yards share | 17.32% |
| WOPR | 0.423 |
| RACR | 1.446 |
| Average depth of target | 7.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 4 |
| Total YAC | 274 |
| Broken tackles | 4 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 84.7 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.14 |
| Red-zone targets | 10 |
| Red-zone target share | 13.9% |
| End-zone target share | 12.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.11 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.11 |
The offense threw it 520 times. He took 15.15% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Khalil Shakir | 20.2% |
| Dalton Kincaid ← | 15.15% |
| Keon Coleman | 11.52% |
| Mack Hollins | 10.1% |
| Curtis Samuel | 9.29% |
| James Cook | 7.68% |
6 of his 13 games were blowouts, 55.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9.3 in those and 6.77 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 8 against TB — 17.5 PPR on 7 targets and a 17.9% target share, in a game that finished 24-18. His worst was Week 15 against DAL at 0, on 2 targets, final score 31-10. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 11; in the 5 decided by more, 5.8. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 9.8 points per game. He scored 9.39, 1% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 0 against 2.17 expected, a gap of -2.2.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYJ | 16-22 | 6.6 | 4 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 10.3% | 80% |
| 2 | LV | 38-10 | 9.3 | 5 | 6 | 43 | 0 | 16.7% | 60% |
| 3 | WAS | 37-3 | 2.3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6.3% | 51% |
| 4 | MIA | 48-20 | 6.7 | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 20% | 52% |
| 5 | JAX | 20-25 | 3.9 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 5.6% | 53% |
| 7 | NE | 25-29 | 15.5 | 8 | 8 | 75 | 0 | 20.5% | 61% |
| 8 | TB | 24-18 | 17.5 | 5 | 7 | 65 | 1 | 17.9% | 84% |
| 9 | CIN | 18-24 | 16.1 | 10 | 11 | 81 | 0 | 34.4% | 90% |
| 10 | DEN | 22-24 | 16.1 | 5 | 6 | 51 | 1 | 24% | 76% |
| 11 | NYJ | 32-6 | 10.6 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 0 | 24.1% | 67% |
| 12 | PHI | 34-37 | 8.8 | 5 | 6 | 38 | 0 | 12.2% | 61% |
| 14 | KC | 20-17 | 7.1 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 0 | 22.2% | 78% |
| 15 | DAL | 31-10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15.4% | 49% |
| 16 | LAC | 24-22 | 1.7 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 9.5% | 42% |
| 17 | NE | 27-21 | 12.7 | 4 | 7 | 87 | 0 | 25% | 55% |
| 18 | MIA | 21-14 | 15.4 | 7 | 8 | 84 | 0 | 21.6% | 55% |
| Receptions | 73 |
| Targets | 91 |
| Receiving yards | 673 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 9.39 |
| Yards per target | 7.4 |
| Catch rate | 80.22% |
| Snap share | 63.38% |
| Target share | 17.86% |
| Air-yards share | 11.63% |
| WOPR | 0.348 |
| RACR | 1.514 |
| Average depth of target | 6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 5 |
| Total YAC | 311 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 95.7 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.79 |
| Red-zone targets | 9 |
| Red-zone target share | 12.2% |
| End-zone target share | 6.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.17 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -2.17 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 12 of 14 |
| Yards per target | 9 of 14 |
| Target share | 11 of 14 |
| Air-yards share | 12 of 14 |
The offense threw it 579 times. He took 16.7% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Stefon Diggs | 29.36% |
| Dalton Kincaid ← | 16.7% |
| Gabe Davis | 14.86% |
| James Cook | 9.91% |
| Khalil Shakir | 8.26% |
| Dawson Knox | 6.61% |
5 of his 16 games were blowouts, 19.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5.78 in those and 11.04 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about Dalton Kincaid →