Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 15.18 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 36.7, usage worth 15.
26 years old · 5 seasons of experience · 2021 draft class
| SLEEPER | 37.7 |
| ESPN | 38.9 |
| YAHOO | 34.9 |
| UNDERDOG | 35 |
| CBS | 35.1 |
| FFA | 29 |
| Goes around | Round 3, pick 13 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | RB17 |
| Bye week | 14 |
| ADP standard deviation | 2 picks |
Our board has him at 216.8 points, 13.6 per game — 1,075 rushing yards, 9.5 rushing TDs, 26.4 catches. That is RB3, 29 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 8 points per game to a ceiling of 17.6, with the median at 13.6. Boom rate 29%, bust rate 41%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 36.7 on consensus and our board has him 29. We rank him 7.7 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
already hit his statistical ceiling last year (13th in PPG) with the role performing as well as it realistically can; the only real threat to his floor is if Jaydon Blue ever actually earns passing-down work, which as of this recording remained unresolved.
watch · medium conviction · 2026-08Dallas Cowboys returns 6 of 6 continuity slots — the whole offense is intact. Dak Prescott at quarterback, Brian Schottenheimer as head coach, Klayton Adams calling it. The offense projects to 35.8 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 27.1 rushes.
In: Sam Howell (qb2), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (wr5), Anthony Smith (wr7).
The projected carry split across the offense:
| Javonte Williams ← | 57.2% |
| Malik Davis | 22% |
| Phil Mafah | 11.3% |
| Jaydin Blue | 9.5% |
What the offense looks like: Cowboys offense remains essentially the same in 2026 but will be paired with a significantly more competitive defense. This is very important because there were multiple games last year where Cowboys had to pull starters in the 4th quarter because they were getting blown out. This is a high powered offense that can sustain 2 WR1s in fantasy. The real question remains if George Pickens is going to land an extension in Dallas. There is no TRUE line of sight into this yet. Jerry Jones says he wants him to be a Cowboy for the long term, but we can't trust Jerry. If someone paid enough George is gone. Ceedee is not expected to be a top 5 WR with Pickens playing at his 2025 levels, but can absolutely be a top 10 PPR fantasy WR. Ceedee is an elite WR. Cowboys also lock down Javonte Williams on 3 year exention.
Key additions: George Pickens was franchised tagged & will play 2026 season in Dallas (barring trade or hold out).
Key departures: WR Jalen Tolbert signed with Miami Dolphins (minor)
Notes: Dallas has added significantly on defense this offseason and should be VERY competitive. Multiple games last year caused starters to be benched due to blow outs. Dak remains a highly productive aging QB with a well balanced pass and rush offense. Javonte Williams landed massive 3 year extension with Cowboys & George Pickens has been franchised tagged with no current plans to land long term extension. Ceedee Lamb looks to get back on track as a top 5 WR following a rough 2025. Pickens and Ceedee should both be viewed as Dynasty WR1s. Jake Ferguson is expected to also have a great 2026 season. We want to own as many pieces of this offense as we can FOR THE RIGHT PRICE.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Dak Prescott returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (36.7 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 35.7 att/g.
| Projected carry share | 57.2% |
| Projected carries per game | 12.7 |
| Projected carries, full season | 216 |
| Last season, carries per game | 15.8 |
That is a reduction of 3.1 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 27.1 rushing attempts a game.
Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.
Offensive environment: DAL rates 25.7 against a league average of 23, 2.7 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +1.6 · easier |
| Weeks 1–6 | +4.5 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -4 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -2.6 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full Javonte Williams study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +70.8% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, RBs crash the following year 59% of the time (hold 41%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 59% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 2023 | 13.1 | 66% | +4.4% |
| Chuba Hubbard | 2024 | 16.1 | 66% | -21.1% |
| Josh Jacobs | 2023 | 13.9 | 61% | +44.2% |
| Dalvin Cook | 2022 | 14 | 57% | -56.5% |
| Najee Harris | 2024 | 12 | 56% | -29.9% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2021, round 2, pick 35 by DEN |
| College | North Carolina |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| Height | 5′9″ |
| Weight | 212 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.55s |
| Vertical | 36″ |
| Broad jump | 123″ |
| 3-cone | 6.97s |
| Shuttle | 4.09s |
| Career PPR per game | 12 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.5 |
| Boom rate | 21.8% |
| Bust rate | 20% |
| Games missed per season | 0.2 |
| Injury history | Shoulder |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.44 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 5 against NYJ — 26.9 PPR on 18 touches and a 7.1% target share, in a game that finished 37-22. His worst was Week 16 against LAC at 6.3, on 12 touches, final score 17-34. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 16.1; in the 8 decided by more, 14.3. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 15 points per game. He scored 15.18, 1.3% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 2 against 3.35 expected, a gap of -1.3.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | 20-24 | 20.4 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 15 | 54 | 2 | 9.1% | 77% |
| 2 | NYG | 40-37 | 25 | 6 | 7 | 33 | 18 | 97 | 1 | 13.5% | 72% |
| 3 | CHI | 14-31 | 12.2 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 10 | 76 | 0 | 11.4% | 59% |
| 4 | GB | 40-40 | 19 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 20 | 85 | 1 | 7.9% | 80% |
| 5 | NYJ | 37-22 | 26.9 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 135 | 2 | 7.1% | 77% |
| 6 | CAR | 27-30 | 8.4 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 29 | 0 | 23.5% | 85% |
| 7 | WAS | 44-22 | 18.8 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 116 | 1 | 13.3% | 69% |
| 8 | DEN | 24-44 | 17.9 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 41 | 2 | 5.7% | 72% |
| 9 | ARI | 17-27 | 7.3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 83 | 0 | 2.8% | 87% |
| 11 | LV | 33-16 | 10.3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 0 | 3.1% | 78% |
| 12 | PHI | 24-21 | 12.1 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 20 | 87 | 0 | 8.6% | 78% |
| 13 | KC | 31-28 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 17 | 59 | 1 | 8.1% | 78% |
| 14 | DET | 30-44 | 14.7 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 67 | 1 | 8.5% | 79% |
| 15 | MIN | 26-34 | 15.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 91 | 1 | 0% | 29% |
| 16 | LAC | 17-34 | 6.3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 34 | 0 | 9.4% | 57% |
| 17 | WAS | 30-23 | 11.4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 54 | 1 | 5.6% | 27% |
| Receptions | 35 |
| Targets | 51 |
| Receiving yards | 137 |
| Carries | 252 |
| Rushing yards | 1,201 |
| Touchdowns | 13 |
| Points per game | 15.18 |
| Yards per target | 2.69 |
| Catch rate | 68.63% |
| Yards per carry | 4.77 |
| Snap share | 69% |
| Target share | 8.6% |
| Air-yards share | -1.46% |
| WOPR | 0.118 |
| RACR | -0.464 |
| Average depth of target | -1.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -2 |
| Total YAC | 206 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 84.8 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -1.42 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.76 |
| Red-zone targets | 12 |
| Red-zone target share | 11.9% |
| End-zone target share | 2.2% |
| Red-zone carry share | 63.5% |
| Goal-line carry share | 66.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.35 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.35 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 10.14 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 12 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 47 of 49 |
| Target share | 25 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 37 of 49 |
The offense threw it 624 times. He took 8.4% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| George Pickens | 22.57% |
| CeeDee Lamb | 19.28% |
| Jake Ferguson | 16.8% |
| Ryan Flournoy | 9.23% |
| Javonte Williams ← | 8.4% |
| Kavontae Turpin | 6.26% |
5 of his 16 games were blowouts, 27% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 13.1 in those and 16.05 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 7 against NO — 26.1 PPR on 17 touches and a 12% target share, in a game that finished 33-10. His worst was Week 17 against CIN at 2, on 2 touches, final score 24-30. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6.6; in the 10 decided by more, 11.2. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 11.5 points per game. He scored 9.29, 20.5% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA | 20-26 | 3.3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 23 | 0 | 4.8% | 52% |
| 2 | PIT | 6-13 | 11.5 | 5 | 5 | 48 | 11 | 17 | 0 | 15.2% | 66% |
| 3 | TB | 26-7 | 6.1 | 4 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 11.8% | 51% |
| 4 | NYJ | 10-9 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 77 | 0 | 12% | 57% |
| 5 | LV | 34-18 | 16.1 | 5 | 6 | 50 | 13 | 61 | 0 | 23.1% | 63% |
| 6 | LAC | 16-23 | 4.6 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 6 | 23 | 0 | 18.8% | 67% |
| 7 | NO | 33-10 | 26.1 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 14 | 88 | 2 | 12% | 63% |
| 8 | CAR | 28-14 | 9.2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 44 | 0 | 13.2% | 58% |
| 9 | BAL | 10-41 | 10.4 | 2 | 3 | 42 | 12 | 42 | 0 | 9.1% | 54% |
| 10 | KC | 14-16 | 2.7 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7.1% | 29% |
| 11 | ATL | 38-6 | 18.7 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 9 | 59 | 1 | 15.6% | 52% |
| 12 | LV | 29-19 | 2.4 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 0 | 10.3% | 56% |
| 13 | CLE | 41-32 | 7.4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6.5% | 45% |
| 15 | IND | 31-13 | 4.3 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 15 | 0 | 9.4% | 54% |
| 16 | LAC | 27-34 | 12.3 | 7 | 11 | 29 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 28.2% | 52% |
| 17 | CIN | 24-30 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.5% | 37% |
| 18 | KC | 38-0 | 10.8 | 3 | 4 | 50 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 13.8% | 31% |
| Receptions | 52 |
| Targets | 70 |
| Receiving yards | 346 |
| Carries | 139 |
| Rushing yards | 513 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 9.29 |
| Yards per target | 4.94 |
| Catch rate | 74.29% |
| Yards per carry | 3.69 |
| Snap share | 52.18% |
| Target share | 12.79% |
| Air-yards share | -1.99% |
| WOPR | 0.177 |
| RACR | -1.125 |
| Average depth of target | -0.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7.6 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -0.9 |
| Total YAC | 395 |
| Broken tackles | 4 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 84.6 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.33 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -1.41 |
| Red-zone targets | 4 |
| Red-zone target share | 5.4% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 37.8% |
| Goal-line carry share | 41.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.74 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.74 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 5.23 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 34 of 46 |
| Yards per target | 33 of 46 |
| Target share | 6 of 46 |
| Air-yards share | 38 of 46 |
The offense threw it 569 times. He took 13.01% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Courtland Sutton | 25.09% |
| Javonte Williams ← | 13.01% |
| Devaughn Vele | 10.22% |
| Troy Franklin | 9.85% |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 9.67% |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 8.36% |
6 of his 17 games were blowouts, 48.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 12.73 in those and 6.63 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 10 against BUF — 21 PPR on 25 touches and a 13.8% target share, in a game that finished 24-22. His worst was Week 4 against CHI at 3.9, on 5 touches, final score 31-28. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 10.2; in the 7 decided by more, 12.5. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 13.5 points per game. He scored 11.2, 17% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LV | 16-17 | 9.7 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 52 | 0 | 18.8% | 45% |
| 2 | WAS | 33-35 | 7.8 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 12 | 44 | 0 | 11.1% | 45% |
| 3 | MIA | 20-70 | 8.5 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 11 | 42 | 0 | 8.3% | 42% |
| 4 | CHI | 31-28 | 3.9 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11.5% | 17% |
| 6 | KC | 8-19 | 7.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 52 | 0 | 0% | 35% |
| 7 | GB | 19-17 | 12.6 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 15 | 82 | 0 | 16.7% | 53% |
| 8 | KC | 24-9 | 18.8 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 27 | 85 | 1 | 16.7% | 63% |
| 10 | BUF | 24-22 | 21 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 21 | 79 | 1 | 13.8% | 52% |
| 11 | MIN | 21-20 | 7.3 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 11 | 37 | 0 | 6.3% | 49% |
| 12 | CLE | 29-12 | 10.1 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 65 | 0 | 28.6% | 70% |
| 13 | HOU | 17-22 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 13 | 46 | 0 | 12.5% | 65% |
| 14 | LAC | 24-7 | 18.1 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 17 | 66 | 1 | 13.3% | 60% |
| 15 | DET | 17-42 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 12 | 27 | 0 | 6.3% | 48% |
| 16 | NE | 23-26 | 10.9 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 11 | 24 | 1 | 8.6% | 39% |
| 17 | LAC | 16-9 | 8.8 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 41 | 0 | 10% | 45% |
| 18 | LV | 14-27 | 20.5 | 7 | 9 | 43 | 9 | 32 | 1 | 28.1% | 41% |
| Receptions | 47 |
| Targets | 58 |
| Receiving yards | 228 |
| Carries | 217 |
| Rushing yards | 774 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 11.2 |
| Yards per target | 3.93 |
| Catch rate | 81.03% |
| Yards per carry | 3.57 |
| Snap share | 48.06% |
| Target share | 13.16% |
| Air-yards share | -3.75% |
| WOPR | 0.171 |
| RACR | -0.552 |
| Average depth of target | -1.7 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -1.6 |
| Total YAC | 303 |
| Broken tackles | 6 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 94.5 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.29 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -2.36 |
| Red-zone targets | 4 |
| Red-zone target share | 5.6% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 55.3% |
| Goal-line carry share | 44.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.54 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.46 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 5.7 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 31 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 46 of 49 |
| Target share | 11 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 48 of 49 |
The offense threw it 513 times. He took 12.24% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Courtland Sutton | 18.99% |
| Jerry Jeudy | 18.35% |
| Javonte Williams ← | 12.24% |
| Samaje Perine | 11.81% |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 7.59% |
| Adam Trautman | 7.38% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 14 | 46 | 10.71 | 3.65 | 12.32% |
| Jarrett Stidham | 2 | 12 | 14.65 | 5 | 19.05% |
4 of his 16 games were blowouts, 22.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 10.18 in those and 10.22 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 1 against SEA — 19.8 PPR on 19 touches and a 29.3% target share, in a game that finished 16-17. His worst was Week 4 against LV at 3.7, on 11 touches, final score 23-32. Across 4 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 1 time.
His usage that season was worth 15.6 points per game. He scored 10.5, 32.6% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 0 against 1.59 expected, a gap of -1.6.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA | 16-17 | 19.8 | 11 | 12 | 65 | 7 | 43 | 0 | 29.3% | 58% |
| 2 | HOU | 16-9 | 9.5 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 75 | 0 | 14.3% | 65% |
| 3 | SF | 11-10 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 58 | 0 | 15.6% | 45% |
| 4 | LV | 23-32 | 3.7 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 10 | 28 | 0 | 4% | 45% |
| Receptions | 16 |
| Targets | 22 |
| Receiving yards | 76 |
| Carries | 47 |
| Rushing yards | 204 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 10.5 |
| Yards per target | 3.45 |
| Catch rate | 72.73% |
| Yards per carry | 4.34 |
| Snap share | 53.25% |
| Target share | 15.8% |
| Air-yards share | -2.32% |
| WOPR | 0.22 |
| RACR | -3.913 |
| Average depth of target | -1.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -2.6 |
| Total YAC | 118 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 77.1 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -1.6 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -1.58 |
| Red-zone targets | 6 |
| Red-zone target share | 11.3% |
| End-zone target share | 3.3% |
| Red-zone carry share | 10% |
| Goal-line carry share | 10.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.59 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.59 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 1.1 |
The offense threw it 571 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Courtland Sutton | 20.6% |
| Jerry Jeudy | 18.9% |
| Greg Dulcich | 10.4% |
| Latavius Murray | 6.43% |
| Kendall Hinton | 6.24% |
| Melvin Gordon | 6.05% |
His best game was Week 13 against KC — 29.8 PPR on 32 touches and a 25% target share, in a game that finished 9-22. His worst was Week 17 against LAC at 4.2, on 15 touches, final score 13-34. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 11; in the 11 decided by more, 12.6. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 12.2 points per game. He scored 12.05, 1.2% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 3 against 1.57 expected, a gap of 1.4.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYG | 27-13 | 5.1 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 14 | 45 | 0 | 2.9% | 50% |
| 2 | JAX | 23-13 | 8.4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 13 | 64 | 0 | 2.9% | 41% |
| 3 | NYJ | 26-0 | 13.2 | 3 | 4 | 33 | 12 | 29 | 1 | 16.7% | 40% |
| 4 | BAL | 7-23 | 8.9 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 7 | 48 | 0 | 8.1% | 51% |
| 5 | PIT | 19-27 | 11.6 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 8 | 61 | 0 | 8.6% | 42% |
| 6 | LV | 24-34 | 9.8 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 11 | 53 | 0 | 6.3% | 47% |
| 7 | CLE | 14-17 | 17.2 | 6 | 7 | 32 | 4 | 20 | 1 | 21.9% | 42% |
| 8 | WAS | 17-10 | 6.8 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 9 | 35 | 0 | 16% | 43% |
| 9 | DAL | 30-16 | 11.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 111 | 0 | 0% | 47% |
| 10 | PHI | 13-30 | 6.9 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 48 | 0 | 8.8% | 57% |
| 12 | LAC | 28-13 | 20.1 | 3 | 4 | 57 | 14 | 54 | 1 | 17.4% | 58% |
| 13 | KC | 9-22 | 29.8 | 6 | 9 | 76 | 23 | 102 | 1 | 25% | 78% |
| 14 | DET | 38-10 | 21.3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 15 | 73 | 2 | 8% | 49% |
| 15 | CIN | 10-15 | 12.1 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 72 | 0 | 12.5% | 59% |
| 16 | LV | 13-17 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 1 | 9.1% | 52% |
| 17 | LAC | 13-34 | 4.2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 30 | 0 | 3.7% | 50% |
| 18 | KC | 24-28 | 8.4 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 46 | 0 | 8.3% | 56% |
| Receptions | 43 |
| Targets | 53 |
| Receiving yards | 316 |
| Carries | 203 |
| Rushing yards | 903 |
| Touchdowns | 7 |
| Points per game | 12.05 |
| Yards per target | 5.96 |
| Catch rate | 81.13% |
| Yards per carry | 4.45 |
| Snap share | 50.71% |
| Target share | 10.36% |
| Air-yards share | -0.42% |
| WOPR | 0.152 |
| RACR | 1.407 |
| Average depth of target | -0.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -0.6 |
| Total YAC | 343 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 110.4 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.44 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -1.02 |
| Red-zone targets | 8 |
| Red-zone target share | 11.4% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 36.5% |
| Goal-line carry share | 43.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.57 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.43 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 6.36 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 24 of 50 |
| Yards per target | 20 of 50 |
| Target share | 16 of 50 |
| Air-yards share | 37 of 50 |
The offense threw it 541 times. He took 10.27% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Courtland Sutton | 18.99% |
| Noah Fant | 17.44% |
| Tim Patrick | 16.47% |
| Jerry Jeudy | 10.85% |
| Javonte Williams ← | 10.27% |
| Albert Okwuegbunam | 7.75% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 13 | 45 | 13.34 | 6.16 | 11.31% |
| Drew Lock | 4 | 8 | 7.88 | 4.88 | 7.3% |
4 of his 17 games were blowouts, 22.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 11.4 in those and 11.02 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
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