Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 5.14 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 113.4, usage worth 5.5.
26 years old · 4 seasons of experience · 2022 draft class
| SLEEPER | 116.5 |
| ESPN | 130.1 |
| YAHOO | 108.7 |
| UNDERDOG | 125.7 |
| CBS | 98.2 |
| FFA | 114 |
| Goes around | Round 10, pick 5 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | TE13 |
| Bye week | 8 |
| ADP standard deviation | 13.4 picks |
Our board has him at 137.3 points, 9 per game — 53.3 catches, 618 yards, 3.7 TDs. That is TE4, 115 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 6.3 points per game to a ceiling of 14.2, with the median at 9. Boom rate 58%, bust rate 30%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 113.4 on consensus and our board has him 115. Those agree, so there is no market disagreement to exploit. The question is whether you want the profile, not whether it is mispriced.
signed a real, meaningfully guaranteed contract with a new team specifically as a receiving-focused player (not a blocking specialist — the contract size itself signals that), landing in an offense with a genuinely uncertain recovery timeline for its presumptive #1 receiving weapon. A real, non-hypothetical path to being the clear top target on his team for a meaningful chunk of the season, not just a theoretical one.
watch · medium conviction · 2026-08New York Giants returns 2 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1, te1, hc, oc. Jaxson Dart at quarterback, Jim Harbaugh as head coach, Matt Nagy calling it. The offense projects to 30.3 pass attempts a game at low confidence and 27.7 rushes.
In: Darnell Mooney (wr2), Malachi Fields (wr4), Calvin Austin III (wr5), Isaiah Likely (te1). Out: Jaxon Dart (qb), Russell Wilson (qb), Wan'Dale Robinson (wr2), Gunner Olszewski (wr4), Daniel Bellinger (te2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 6%, with a bear case of 4.7% and a bull case of 8.2% and a full range of 3.3% to 8.8%. That comes from 25 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Malik Nabers | 25.9% |
| Darius Slayton | 11.2% |
| Darnell Mooney | 10.4% |
| Malachi Fields | 8.6% |
| Theo Johnson | 8.2% |
| Cam Skattebo | 7.5% |
What the offense looks like: NY still reamins a question mark but there is a lot of potential in this offense if Jaxson Dart turns into the franchise QB. He has a strong arm, is mobile, and plays with a certain type of swagger not all QBs play with. Despite what Ravens fans say, bringing Harbaugh & Nagy into NY is a very good thing. A future HOF coach that is putting his reputation on the line for this team to succeed. Harbaugh has mainly focused on the defense so far, which could imply he thinks the offense is in a good spot, but we will have to see.
Key additions: Darnell Mooney WR from ATL, Calvin Austin III WR from Steelers, Drafted WR Malachi Fields 3rd round, signed TE Isaiah Likely in free agency, New Coach Jim Harbaugh & new OC Matt Nagy.
Key departures: Russell Wilson left to free agency. Won'Dale Robinson left in free agency to the Tennessee Titans (opens up significant amount of targets)
Notes: Giants fired Daboll & brought in Harbaugh. Harbaugh should revamp offense. Brought it Isaiah Likely from Baltimore who seriously hurts Theo Johnson dynasty value (likely should be good). NY did not draft RB & Skattebo will be the starter week 1 of 2026 unless they add someone. He could have a monster season with his Jaxson Dart connection growing. Jaxson Dart gets to play with Malik Nabers for the first time & connection should be electric. Darnell Mooney is a great signing & is on a 1 year prove it deal in NY. If Dart play continues, Mooney will have value.
How the volume number was reached: New QB Jaxson Dart, avg 24.2 att/g over 2025; Regressed 65% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 30.2 att/g; New OC Matt Nagy — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Jim Harbaugh.
25 historical comps for TEs age ~25, prior share 13.1%, team change, OC change, QB change. Distribution: median 8.1%, p25-p75 [3.8%, 13.2%], tails [0.0%, 14.9%]. Closest comps: Dan Arnold 2021→2022 (CAR→JAX: 12.8%→3.8%); Christopher Herndon 2020→2021 (NYJ→MIN: 13.8%→3.7%); Foster Moreau 2022→2023 (LV→NO: 11.0%→6.8%). Adjustment: -10% from real_decline (production + skill both fell)
arrival self-anchored 41% to own 13.1% role (3yr)
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: NYG rates 21.8 against a league average of 23, 1.1 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +4.4 · easier |
| Weeks 1–6 | +8.3 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | +5.7 · easier |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +7.9 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3 | Mark Andrews | +2.7 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +17.6% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.3 elite seasons and 2.3 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juwan Johnson | 2023 | 7.5 | 77% | -4.4% |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 2024 | 7.1 | 76% | +2.4% |
| Colby Parkinson | 2024 | 4.1 | 75% | +69% |
| Donald Parham | 2023 | 5.7 | 73% | -79.4% |
| Harrison Bryant | 2022 | 4.4 | 72% | -1.9% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 2 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2022, round 4, pick 139 by BAL |
| College | Coastal Carolina |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 6′5″ |
| Weight | 245 lb |
| Vertical | 36″ |
| Shuttle | 4.57s |
| Career PPR per game | 7.5 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.8 |
| Boom rate | 25.6% |
| Bust rate | 25.6% |
| Games missed per season | 1 |
| Injury history | Hamstring, Foot |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | -0.25 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 13 against CIN — 12.5 PPR on 6 targets and a 20% target share, in a game that finished 14-32. His worst was Week 16 against NE at 0, on 0 targets, final score 24-28. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 5; in the 7 decided by more, 5.3. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 5.5 points per game. He scored 5.14, 5.7% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | HOU | 10-44 | 2.2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 5% | 53% |
| 6 | LA | 3-17 | 2.6 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6.3% | 81% |
| 8 | CHI | 30-16 | 2.8 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 9.1% | 58% |
| 9 | MIA | 28-6 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 60 | 0 | 17.4% | 59% |
| 10 | MIN | 27-19 | 3.7 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 14.3% | 56% |
| 11 | CLE | 23-16 | 3.5 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 12% | 52% |
| 12 | NYJ | 23-10 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 15% | 57% |
| 13 | CIN | 14-32 | 12.5 | 5 | 6 | 95 | 0 | 20% | 52% |
| 14 | PIT | 22-27 | 12.5 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 1 | 18.2% | 60% |
| 16 | NE | 24-28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 40% |
| 17 | GB | 41-24 | 5.7 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 15% | 70% |
| 18 | PIT | 24-26 | 5.2 | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 | 11.8% | 49% |
| Receptions | 27 |
| Targets | 36 |
| Receiving yards | 307 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 5.14 |
| Yards per target | 8.53 |
| Catch rate | 75% |
| Snap share | 57.25% |
| Target share | 12.01% |
| Air-yards share | 12.01% |
| WOPR | 0.264 |
| RACR | 1.083 |
| Average depth of target | 8 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 7 |
| Total YAC | 117 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 109.4 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.45 |
| Red-zone targets | 6 |
| Red-zone target share | 11.1% |
| End-zone target share | 10.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.61 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.61 |
The offense threw it 422 times. He took 8.85% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Zay Flowers | 28.99% |
| Mark Andrews | 17.2% |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 9.58% |
| Rashod Bateman | 9.34% |
| Isaiah Likely ← | 8.85% |
| Justice Hill | 6.63% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 8 | 28 | 6.05 | 9.07 | 13.59% |
| Cooper Rush | 2 | 3 | 2.4 | 6 | 5.65% |
| Tyler Huntley | 2 | 5 | 4.25 | 7 | 12.05% |
4 of his 12 games were blowouts, 47.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.35 in those and 4.98 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 1 against KC — 26.1 PPR on 12 targets and a 30% target share, in a game that finished 20-27. His worst was Week 9 against DEN at 0, on 1 targets, final score 41-10. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 10.8; in the 7 decided by more, 5.4. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 7 points per game. He scored 8.25, 25.9% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 5 against 3.57 expected, a gap of 1.4.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | 20-27 | 26.1 | 9 | 12 | 111 | 1 | 30% | 66% |
| 2 | LV | 23-26 | 4.6 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 9.7% | 49% |
| 3 | DAL | 28-25 | 1.4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 6.7% | 62% |
| 4 | BUF | 35-10 | 3.6 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 11.1% | 54% |
| 5 | CIN | 41-38 | 16.3 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 7.3% | 71% |
| 6 | WAS | 30-23 | 4.7 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 16% | 68% |
| 7 | TB | 41-31 | 3.7 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 19% | 59% |
| 8 | CLE | 24-29 | 8.7 | 4 | 4 | 47 | 0 | 11.4% | 69% |
| 9 | DEN | 41-10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5.3% | 30% |
| 11 | PIT | 16-18 | 9.5 | 4 | 5 | 75 | 0 | 16.1% | 49% |
| 13 | PHI | 19-24 | 14.8 | 5 | 8 | 38 | 1 | 22.9% | 50% |
| 15 | NYG | 35-14 | 3.7 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 8.3% | 66% |
| 16 | PIT | 34-17 | 11.9 | 3 | 3 | 29 | 1 | 13% | 66% |
| 17 | HOU | 31-2 | 7.9 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 6.3% | 76% |
| 18 | CLE | 35-10 | 6.8 | 3 | 5 | 38 | 0 | 16.7% | 61% |
| Receptions | 42 |
| Targets | 58 |
| Receiving yards | 477 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 8.25 |
| Yards per target | 8.22 |
| Catch rate | 72.41% |
| Snap share | 59.73% |
| Target share | 13.32% |
| Air-yards share | 12.93% |
| WOPR | 0.291 |
| RACR | 4.187 |
| Average depth of target | 8 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 5.3 |
| Total YAC | 256 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 131.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.85 |
| Red-zone targets | 13 |
| Red-zone target share | 19.1% |
| End-zone target share | 25.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.57 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 5 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.43 |
The offense threw it 477 times. He took 12.69% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Zay Flowers | 25.38% |
| Rashod Bateman | 15.75% |
| Mark Andrews | 15.1% |
| Isaiah Likely ← | 12.69% |
| Justice Hill | 11.16% |
| Nelson Agholor | 6.35% |
6 of his 15 games were blowouts, 27.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5.65 in those and 10.76 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 14 against LA — 19.3 PPR on 7 targets and a 17.5% target share, in a game that finished 37-31. His worst was Week 11 against CIN at 0, on 2 targets, final score 34-20. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6.5; in the 8 decided by more, 7.8. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 5.3 points per game. He scored 7.22, 45.9% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 3 against 1.65 expected, a gap of 1.4.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | 25-9 | 1.4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4.8% | 72% |
| 2 | CIN | 27-24 | 1.8 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | 33% |
| 3 | IND | 19-22 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 6.7% | 26% |
| 4 | CLE | 28-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 26% |
| 8 | ARI | 31-24 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 3.8% | 11% |
| 9 | SEA | 37-3 | 8.2 | 4 | 4 | 42 | 0 | 12.5% | 25% |
| 10 | CLE | 31-33 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4.3% | 7% |
| 11 | CIN | 34-20 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8.7% | 76% |
| 12 | LAC | 20-10 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 40 | 0 | 20% | 73% |
| 14 | LA | 37-31 | 19.3 | 5 | 7 | 83 | 1 | 17.5% | 79% |
| 15 | JAX | 23-7 | 18 | 5 | 6 | 70 | 1 | 26.1% | 74% |
| 16 | SF | 33-19 | 8.6 | 3 | 4 | 56 | 0 | 11.8% | 74% |
| 17 | MIA | 56-19 | 18.2 | 2 | 3 | 42 | 2 | 13.6% | 63% |
| 18 | PIT | 10-17 | 11.1 | 2 | 2 | 31 | 1 | 7.7% | 33% |
| Receptions | 30 |
| Targets | 40 |
| Receiving yards | 411 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 7.22 |
| Yards per target | 10.28 |
| Catch rate | 75% |
| Snap share | 48% |
| Target share | 10.04% |
| Air-yards share | 7.97% |
| WOPR | 0.206 |
| RACR | 2.541 |
| Average depth of target | 6.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6.5 |
| Total YAC | 216 |
| Broken tackles | 6 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 147 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.3 |
| Red-zone targets | 9 |
| Red-zone target share | 12.5% |
| End-zone target share | 10% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.65 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.35 |
The offense threw it 494 times. He took 8.4% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Zay Flowers | 22.69% |
| Odell Beckham | 13.45% |
| Mark Andrews | 12.82% |
| Rashod Bateman | 11.76% |
| Nelson Agholor | 9.45% |
| Isaiah Likely ← | 8.4% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 13 | 38 | 6.92 | 10 | 10.22% |
| Tyler Huntley | 1 | 2 | 11.1 | 15.5 | 7.7% |
3 of his 14 games were blowouts, 26.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8.8 in those and 6.45 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 8 against TB — 19.7 PPR on 7 targets and a 20.6% target share, in a game that finished 27-22. His worst was Week 1 against NYJ at 0, on 4 targets, final score 24-9. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 7.1; in the 6 decided by more, 5.7. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 7.5 points per game. He scored 6.52, 13% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYJ | 24-9 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13.8% | 45% |
| 2 | MIA | 38-42 | 8.3 | 4 | 5 | 43 | 0 | 17.2% | 36% |
| 3 | NE | 37-26 | 1.8 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 7.4% | 33% |
| 5 | CIN | 19-17 | 2.7 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 7.4% | 23% |
| 6 | NYG | 20-24 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 12.5% | 22% |
| 7 | CLE | 23-20 | 2.6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 6.3% | 11% |
| 8 | TB | 27-22 | 19.7 | 6 | 7 | 77 | 1 | 20.6% | 67% |
| 9 | NO | 27-13 | 9.4 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 1 | 22.7% | 76% |
| 11 | CAR | 13-3 | 1.1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9.4% | 32% |
| 13 | DEN | 10-9 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 11.1% | 26% |
| 15 | CLE | 3-13 | 3.8 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 10.7% | 44% |
| 16 | ATL | 17-9 | 1.4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 12.5% | 25% |
| 17 | PIT | 13-16 | 10.2 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 25% | 33% |
| 18 | CIN | 16-27 | 18.3 | 8 | 13 | 103 | 0 | 31% | 88% |
| Receptions | 36 |
| Targets | 60 |
| Receiving yards | 373 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 6.52 |
| Yards per target | 6.22 |
| Catch rate | 60% |
| Snap share | 40.07% |
| Target share | 14.83% |
| Air-yards share | 11.84% |
| WOPR | 0.305 |
| RACR | 0.784 |
| Average depth of target | 6.8 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6.2 |
| Total YAC | 151 |
| Broken tackles | 5 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 87.7 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.38 |
| Red-zone targets | 11 |
| Red-zone target share | 13.9% |
| End-zone target share | 15.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.75 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.75 |
The offense threw it 488 times. He took 12.9% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Mark Andrews | 24.3% |
| Demarcus Robinson | 16.13% |
| Isaiah Likely ← | 12.9% |
| Devin Duvernay | 10.54% |
| Rashod Bateman | 6.02% |
| Kenyan Drake | 5.59% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 9 | 33 | 5.62 | 6.24 | 13.03% |
| Tyler Huntley | 4 | 14 | 5.6 | 4.57 | 14.82% |
| Anthony Brown | 1 | 13 | 18.3 | 7.92 | 31% |