TE · PIT · GWTTKB

Pat Freiermuth — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 7.57 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 179.4, usage worth 6.5.

27 years old · 5 seasons of experience · 2021 draft class

Updated 2026-08-16 · free, no account, no paywall
Every figure below comes from our database. Where a stat is not held, the row is absent rather than zero.
ADP 179.4
Consensus across 3 books, standard deviation 60.1, 118.7 picks between cheapest and priciest. Cheapest on sleeper, priciest on yahoo.
SLEEPER244
ESPN168.8
YAHOO125.3
UNDERDOG194
FFA180

Draft-room facts

Goes aroundRound 15, pick 11 in a 12-team draft
Positional rankTE70
Bye week9
ADP standard deviation60.1 picks

What we project for 2026

Our board has him at 102.7 points, 6.8 per game — 41.1 catches, 454 yards, 2.7 TDs. That is TE5, 177 overall.

The range runs from a floor of 4.8 points per game to a ceiling of 10.4, with the median at 6.8. Boom rate 53%, bust rate 29%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.

He goes at 179.4 on consensus and our board has him 177. Those agree, so there is no market disagreement to exploit. The question is whether you want the profile, not whether it is mispriced.

The offense he plays in, 2026

Pittsburgh Steelers returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing hc, oc. Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, Mike McCarthy as head coach, Brian Angelichio calling it. The offense projects to 33 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 25.3 rushes.

In: Drew Allar (qb2), Michael Pittman Jr. (wr2), Germie Bernard (wr3), Kaden Wejen (wr6), A.T. Perry (wr7), Rico Dowdle (rb2), Eli Heidenreich (rb4). Out: Calvin Austin III (wr2), Adam Thielen (wr4), Kenneth Gainwell (rb2), Jonnu Smith (te2).

His own projected target share for 2026 is 13.1%, with a bear case of 12.4% and a bull case of 14.2% and a full range of 10.5% to 15.5%. That comes from 25 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.

The projected target split across the offense:

DK Metcalf21%
Michael Pittman Jr.13.9%
Germie Bernard13.6%
Pat Freiermuth 13.1%
Jaylen Warren10.4%
Rico Dowdle7.1%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

Key additions: Traded for and Signed Michael Pittman Jr to 3 year $59M deal. Signed RB Rico Dowdle to 2/$12M deal in free agency. Drafted WR Germie Bernard in 2nd round, Drafted OT Max Iheanachor in 1st roud to beef up line. Drafted QB Drew Allar in the 3rd round. Drafted G Gennings Dunker 3rd roud (depth). Bringin in HC Mike McCarthy & Brian Angelichio as OC.

Key departures: RB Kenneth Gainwell left in free agency to Bucs. LG Isaac Seumalo left for Cardinals. WR Calvin Austin III left in free agency for Giants. HC Mike Tomlin & OC Arthur Smith (Ass) are both gone.

Notes: Drafted Bernard round 2 Steelers traded up. Steelers traded for Michael Pittman Jr. who is aging but will elevate the passing game. DK Metcalf looks to get back on track in 2026 & establish himself as WR1. Crowded WR room. Steelers drafted WR Riley Nowakowski in the 4th round & he will likely operate as WR5 or return specialist. Signed Rico Dowdle to 2 year deal in free agency. Warren is slotted to be 1A and Dowdle 1B, but any injury to either back makes the other a home run hit in fantasy for 2026. Aaron Rodgers SHOULD return to Steelers, but also drafted Drew Allar (bad QB but good prospect who should be rostered because he can progress. Zero floor on Allar but the ceiling is very high if he gets better.)

How the volume number was reached: Same QB Aaron Rodgers returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (32.4 att/g); Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33 att/g; New OC Brian Angelichio — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Mike McCarthy.

How that share projection was built

25 historical comps for TEs age ~26, prior share 13.7%, same team, OC change. Distribution: median 14.7%, p25-p75 [13.1%, 17.7%], tails [8.3%, 21.2%]. Closest comps: Tyler Higbee 2020→2021 (LA: 14.5%→15.7%); David Njoku 2022→2023 (CLE: 15.2%→21.6%); Cole Kmet 2024→2025 (CHI: 15.9%→9.1%). Adjustment: +2% from environmental_decline (team context recovering)

self-anchored 58% to own 13.7% role (3yr), 42% to comp median 14.7%

The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.

Offensive environment: PIT rates 21.3 against a league average of 23, 1.6 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season-1.9 · harder
Weeks 1–6+2.2 · easier
Weeks 12–17-1.8 · harder
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)+3.7 · easier

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

What happened when he missed time

From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.

SeasonGames missedMain beneficiaryTheir PPR gain
20232Connor Heyward+3.4
Read the full Pat Freiermuth study →

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved +19.3% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.3 elite seasons and 2.3 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

PlayerSeasonTheir PPGSimilarityNext year
Noah Fant20247.470%-10.7%
Mike Gesicki20234.470%+118.3%
Dawson Knox20235.567%-5.8%
Mike Gesicki20248.867%-15.8%
Dawson Knox20244.265%+13.1%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

02,0004,00020222023202420252026
Monthly superflex value, 2021-04 to 2026-07. Up 6% across the series, peaking at 4,218.

The player

Draft capital and athletic profile

Drafted2021, round 2, pick 55 by PIT
CollegePenn St.
Age at draft22
Height6′5″
Weight251 lb

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game9.3
Week-to-week variation0.6
Boom rate18.6%
Bust rate23.7%
Games missed per season0.8
Injury historyConcussion, Hamstring
Correlation between his posted line and his actual score0.12

That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.

Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.

The record, season by season

2025 · PIT · 15 games

His best game was Week 7 against CIN — 28.1 PPR on 6 targets and a 18.2% target share, in a game that finished 31-33. His worst was Week 3 against NE at 1.6, on 3 targets, final score 21-14. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 9.4; in the 6 decided by more, 4.9. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 6.5 points per game. He scored 7.57, 12.5% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1NYJ34-325.83328010.3%50%
2SEA17-316.13431012.9%50%
3NE21-141.6136013.6%70%
6CLE23-92.1111103.4%36%
7CIN31-3328.156111218.2%65%
8GB25-354.33413012.5%43%
9IND27-2011.73427111.4%47%
10LAC10-256.33333010.7%50%
11CIN34-122.9111903.4%46%
12CHI28-3110.9331919.7%47%
14BAL27-222.923909.1%60%
15MIA28-157.53545018.5%42%
16DET29-2464420010.5%43%
17CLE6-139.33563013.5%70%
18BAL26-248.13551011.4%69%

Production

Receptions41
Targets54
Receiving yards486
Touchdowns4
Points per game7.57
Yards per target9
Catch rate75.93%

Role

Snap share52.53%
Target share11.27%
Air-yards share12.58%
WOPR0.258
RACR4.855

Efficiency

Average depth of target6
Yards after catch per reception6.2
Yards before catch per reception5.6
Total YAC255
Broken tackles3
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted119.8
Receiving EPA per game1.56

Scoring position

Red-zone targets9
Red-zone target share11.7%
End-zone target share14.3%
Expected receiving TDs2.34
Actual receiving TDs3
Receiving TD luck0.66

Who else ate

The offense threw it 550 times. He took 10.38% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

DK Metcalf19.04%
Kenneth Gainwell16.35%
Calvin Austin III10.58%
Jonnu Smith10.38%
Pat Freiermuth 10.38%
Jaylen Warren8.65%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Aaron Rodgers13507.688.9612%
Mason Rudolph246.99.56.55%

Blowouts against close games

1 of his 15 games were blowouts, 2.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 2.9 in those and 9.38 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2024 · PIT · 17 games

His best game was Week 18 against CIN — 22.5 PPR on 11 targets and a 37.9% target share, in a game that finished 17-19. His worst was Week 11 against BAL at 3.4, on 2 targets, final score 18-16. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 11.2; in the 7 decided by more, 8.4. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 8.1 points per game. He scored 10.02, 19.1% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 6 against 2.84 expected, a gap of 3.2.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1ATL18-106.74427018.2%74%
2DEN13-67.94439022.2%58%
3LAC20-107.34533016.1%81%
4IND24-2716.75757121.9%76%
5DAL17-2011.23322111.5%79%
6LV32-133.62316013%87%
7NYJ37-157.12351011.1%71%
8NYG26-183.9221907.4%65%
10WAS28-2710.73317111.5%58%
11BAL18-163.4221406.3%58%
12CLE19-249.94459016%64%
13CIN44-3818.86768119.4%67%
14CLE27-1413.83348112.5%62%
15PHI13-2711.23622128.6%70%
16BAL17-344.63316011.5%68%
17KC10-29117860022.9%60%
18CIN17-1922.581185137.9%80%

Production

Receptions65
Targets78
Receiving yards653
Touchdowns7
Points per game10.02
Yards per target8.37
Catch rate83.33%

Role

Snap share69.29%
Target share16.94%
Air-yards share13.25%
WOPR0.348
RACR1.615

Efficiency

Average depth of target6.1
Yards after catch per reception4.3
Yards before catch per reception5.8
Total YAC279
Broken tackles4
Drop rate0.1%
Passer rating when targeted126.1
Receiving EPA per game2.11

Scoring position

Red-zone targets14
Red-zone target share23%
End-zone target share12%
Expected receiving TDs2.84
Actual receiving TDs6
Receiving TD luck3.16

Who else ate

The offense threw it 498 times. He took 16.99% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

George Pickens22.44%
Pat Freiermuth 16.99%
Calvin Austin III12.64%
Najee Harris10.46%
Jaylen Warren10.24%
Van Jefferson8.71%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Russell Wilson115210.638.8316.83%
Justin Fields6268.97.4617.15%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 17 games were blowouts, 15.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.57 in those and 11.17 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2023 · PIT · 11 games

His best game was Week 12 against CIN — 21 PPR on 11 targets and a 34.4% target share, in a game that finished 16-10. His worst was Week 2 against CLE at 1.2, on 1 targets, final score 26-22. Across 11 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 7.9; in the 4 decided by more, 5.4. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 7.9 points per game. He scored 6.98, 6% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1SF7-307.314318.9%51%
2CLE26-221.211203.4%76%
3LV23-1813.13441114.8%79%
4HOU6-303.7347014.8%51%
11CLE10-131.711704%54%
12CIN16-1021911120034.4%59%
13ARI10-245.93529018.5%59%
14NE18-216.83718020%69%
15IND13-304.63416015.4%76%
17SEA30-237.43444019%64%
18BAL17-104.12221010%61%

Production

Receptions32
Targets47
Receiving yards308
Touchdowns2
Points per game6.98
Yards per target6.55
Catch rate68.09%

Role

Snap share63.55%
Target share14.84%
Air-yards share12%
WOPR0.307
RACR1.005

Efficiency

Average depth of target6.6
Yards after catch per reception4.5
Yards before catch per reception5.1
Total YAC145
Broken tackles2
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted91.4
Receiving EPA per game0.87

Scoring position

Red-zone targets6
Red-zone target share12.2%
End-zone target share22.2%
Expected receiving TDs1.29
Actual receiving TDs2
Receiving TD luck0.71

Who else ate

The offense threw it 506 times. He took 9.71% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

George Pickens21.9%
Diontae Johnson17.98%
Jaylen Warren15.29%
Allen Robinson10.12%
Pat Freiermuth 9.71%
Najee Harris7.85%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Kenny Pickett62587.213.38%
Mitchell Trubisky3165.773.9417.97%
Mason Rudolph265.7510.8314.5%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 11 games were blowouts, 20.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5.2 in those and 7.9 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2022 · PIT · 15 games

His best game was Week 11 against CIN — 15.9 PPR on 12 targets and a 31.6% target share, in a game that finished 30-37. His worst was Week 18 against CLE at 0, on 2 targets, final score 28-14. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 12.2; in the 5 decided by more, 5.3. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 11.4 points per game. He scored 9.88, 13.6% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1CIN23-2012.551075027%89%
2NE14-1712.24722121.9%81%
3CLE17-296.12441012.5%76%
4NYJ20-2415.57985036%73%
5BUF3-383.2221203.9%49%
7MIA10-1615.58975021.4%59%
8PHI13-359.74757017.5%62%
10NO20-107.64736026.9%69%
11CIN30-3715.981279031.6%71%
12IND24-176.93439014.3%71%
13ATL19-1610.63576018.5%55%
14BAL14-1612.33633119.4%56%
16LV13-1013.67866022.2%81%
17BAL16-136.63636022.2%77%
18CLE28-14002007.1%63%

Production

Receptions63
Targets98
Receiving yards732
Touchdowns2
Points per game9.88
Yards per target7.47
Catch rate64.29%

Role

Snap share68.8%
Target share20.16%
Air-yards share19.26%
WOPR0.437
RACR0.907

Efficiency

Average depth of target8.3
Yards after catch per reception4.6
Yards before catch per reception7
Total YAC291
Broken tackles6
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted76.6
Receiving EPA per game0.59

Scoring position

Red-zone targets13
Red-zone target share20.6%
End-zone target share23.1%
Expected receiving TDs2.84
Actual receiving TDs2
Receiving TD luck-0.84

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:

Points per game7 of 11
Yards per target6 of 11
Target share4 of 11
Air-yards share3 of 11

Who else ate

The offense threw it 571 times. He took 18.05% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Diontae Johnson27.07%
Pat Freiermuth 18.05%
George Pickens15.47%
Najee Harris9.76%
Chase Claypool9.21%
Jaylen Warren6.08%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Kenny Pickett10628.967.6818.56%
Mitchell Trubisky53611.727.1123.36%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 15 games were blowouts, 8.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.45 in those and 12.16 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2021 · PIT · 16 games

His best game was Week 9 against CHI — 21.3 PPR on 6 targets and a 22.2% target share, in a game that finished 29-27. His worst was Week 4 against GB at 2.1, on 1 targets, final score 17-27. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 10; in the 5 decided by more, 8.4. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 8.6 points per game. He scored 9.48, 7.9% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 7 against 5.26 expected, a gap of 1.7.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1BUF23-163.4112403.1%50%
2LV17-267.64436010%59%
3CIN10-2411.2352218.6%36%
4GB17-272.1111102.6%53%
5DEN27-192.722708%49%
6SEA23-2012.87758017.9%60%
8CLE15-1014.44744120%78%
9CHI29-2721.35643222.2%71%
10DET16-166.15931018.4%62%
11LAC37-4111.14711115.9%57%
12CIN10-41144440110.3%76%
13BAL20-197.63426013.3%73%
14MIN28-3611.2233217.7%74%
15TEN19-137.74437016%45%
17CLE26-147.25622013%77%
18BAL16-1311.36953020.5%66%

Production

Receptions60
Targets79
Receiving yards497
Touchdowns7
Points per game9.48
Yards per target6.29
Catch rate75.95%

Role

Snap share61.63%
Target share12.97%
Air-yards share10.72%
WOPR0.269
RACR1.265

Efficiency

Average depth of target5.3
Yards after catch per reception4.1
Yards before catch per reception4.2
Total YAC247
Broken tackles8
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted121.1
Receiving EPA per game1.61

Scoring position

Red-zone targets20
Red-zone target share19.8%
End-zone target share17.2%
Expected receiving TDs5.26
Actual receiving TDs7
Receiving TD luck1.74

Who else ate

The offense threw it 663 times. He took 12.15% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Diontae Johnson26%
Chase Claypool16.15%
Najee Harris14.46%
Pat Freiermuth 12.15%
Ray-Ray McCloud10.15%
James Washington6.77%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Ben Roethlisberger15709.716.6612.61%
Mason Rudolph196.13.4418.4%

Blowouts against close games

1 of his 16 games were blowouts, 9.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 14 in those and 9.96 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

Ask the Coach about Pat Freiermuth →
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