Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 10.75 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 201.6, usage worth 12.3.
33 years old · 13 seasons of experience · 2013 draft class
| SLEEPER | 233.2 |
| ESPN | 169.9 |
| UNDERDOG | 206.3 |
| FFA | 230 |
| Goes around | Round 17, pick 10 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR160 |
| ADP standard deviation | 44.8 picks |
Los Angeles Chargers returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing oc. Justin Herbert at quarterback, Jim Harbaugh as head coach, Mike McDaniel calling it. The offense projects to 33.5 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 27 rushes.
In: Brenen Thompson (wr4), Luke Grimm (wr7), Keaton Mitchell (rb2), Charlie Kolar (te2). Out: Keenan Allen (wr3), Tyler Conklin (te2).
The projected target split across the offense:
| Ladd McConkey | 24.2% |
| Quentin Johnston | 18.9% |
| Tre' Harris | 13.3% |
| Oronde Gadsden | 10.6% |
| Omarion Hampton | 10% |
| Brenen Thompson | 8.6% |
What the offense looks like: The top targets and back in this offense will be STELLAR fantasy assets in 2026 and beyond. Herbert SHOULD have a killer season in 2026.
Key additions: Joe Alt & Slater are back. This offense should do a complete 180. Joe Alt & Slater return in 2026 from injury & Chargers add Jake Slaughter LG in the 2nd round of 2026 draft. Sign Tyler Biadasz C, and RG Cole Strange. Entire different O ine from later year. Signed RB Keaton Mitchell to 2 year deal. Signed FB Alex Ingold from Miami. Biggest change is teh offensive Genius Mike McDaniel is the new OC.
Key departures: Keenan Allen remains a free agent and is not currently expected back with the Chargers
Notes: Chargers bring in Mike McDaniel as offensvie coordinator who could SUPERCHARGE offense. Herbert ascending as top 7 dynasty QB. Keenan Allen remains a free agent. Ladd & QJ should operate as 1A & 1B with Ladd having more potential. Tre' Harris should operate as WR3 if no one else is brought in. TE Oronde Gadsden could be very good. RB room is complex. Hampton is the presumed starter week 1 with massive potential but Vidal has been very capable as a back up & chargers also signed Keaton Mitchell to 2 year deal in free agency. Question mark people should think about in usage. Thompson round 4.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Justin Herbert returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (33.5 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.5 att/g; New OC Mike McDaniel — pass rate and tempo may shift.
Offensive environment: LAC rates 24.3 against a league average of 23, 1.3 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -2.5 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | -7.8 · harder |
| Weeks 12–17 | +1.1 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +0.6 · neutral |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 4 | Alex Erickson | +6.3 |
| 2022 | 6 | Mike Williams | +5.8 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -15.6% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 2024 | 10.4 | 73% | +14.8% |
| Terry McLaurin | 2024 | 15.8 | 66% | -16.4% |
| Diontae Johnson | 2024 | 8.1 | 65% | -53.6% |
| Mike Evans | 2024 | 17.2 | 64% | -16.5% |
| DK Metcalf | 2024 | 12.7 | 62% | -4.3% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 4 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Height | 6′2″ |
| Weight | 206 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.58s |
| Career PPR per game | 15.1 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.5 |
| Boom rate | 19.4% |
| Bust rate | 20.9% |
| Games missed per season | 1.8 |
| Injury history | Hamstring, Heel |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.23 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 7 against IND — 28.9 PPR on 14 targets and a 25.9% target share, in a game that finished 24-38. His worst was Week 17 against HOU at 2.7, on 3 targets, final score 16-20. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 9.7; in the 9 decided by more, 11.7. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 12.3 points per game. He scored 10.75, 15.2% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | 27-21 | 19.8 | 7 | 10 | 68 | 1 | 29.4% | 62% |
| 2 | LV | 20-9 | 17.1 | 5 | 7 | 61 | 1 | 25.9% | 55% |
| 3 | DEN | 23-20 | 19.5 | 7 | 11 | 65 | 1 | 24.4% | 65% |
| 4 | NYG | 18-21 | 8.7 | 5 | 7 | 37 | 0 | 18.4% | 78% |
| 5 | WAS | 10-27 | 10.8 | 5 | 9 | 58 | 0 | 28.1% | 58% |
| 6 | MIA | 29-27 | 6.7 | 4 | 7 | 27 | 0 | 18.4% | 56% |
| 7 | IND | 24-38 | 28.9 | 11 | 14 | 119 | 1 | 25.9% | 64% |
| 8 | MIN | 37-10 | 8.4 | 4 | 5 | 44 | 0 | 20.8% | 25% |
| 9 | TEN | 27-20 | 6.1 | 2 | 5 | 41 | 0 | 17.9% | 37% |
| 10 | PIT | 25-10 | 3.9 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 15.2% | 51% |
| 11 | JAX | 6-35 | 9.3 | 4 | 6 | 53 | 0 | 25% | 75% |
| 13 | LV | 31-14 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 23.8% | 60% |
| 14 | PHI | 22-19 | 5.2 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 13% | 57% |
| 15 | KC | 16-13 | 8.6 | 5 | 7 | 36 | 0 | 26.9% | 42% |
| 16 | DAL | 34-17 | 9.4 | 5 | 5 | 44 | 0 | 17.9% | 47% |
| 17 | HOU | 16-20 | 2.7 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 9.7% | 57% |
| 18 | DEN | 3-19 | 10.6 | 7 | 13 | 36 | 0 | 34.2% | 54% |
| Receptions | 81 |
| Targets | 122 |
| Receiving yards | 777 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 10.75 |
| Yards per target | 6.37 |
| Catch rate | 66.39% |
| Snap share | 55.47% |
| Target share | 22.05% |
| Air-yards share | 22.78% |
| WOPR | 0.491 |
| RACR | 0.836 |
| Average depth of target | 8.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 2.9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6.7 |
| Total YAC | 231 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 88 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.05 |
| Red-zone targets | 17 |
| Red-zone target share | 21% |
| End-zone target share | 31.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 4.53 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.53 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 34 of 44 |
| Yards per target | 42 of 44 |
| Target share | 23 of 44 |
| Air-yards share | 37 of 44 |
The offense threw it 569 times. He took 22.63% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Keenan Allen ← | 22.63% |
| Ladd McConkey | 19.67% |
| Quentin Johnston | 15.58% |
| Oronde Gadsden II | 12.8% |
| Tre Harris | 7.98% |
| Omarion Hampton | 6.49% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 16 | 109 | 10.76 | 6.8 | 21.29% |
| Trey Lance | 1 | 13 | 10.6 | 2.77 | 34.2% |
5 of his 17 games were blowouts, 24.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8.98 in those and 9.66 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 16 against DET — 29.1 PPR on 13 targets and a 35.1% target share, in a game that finished 17-34. His worst was Week 18 against GB at 3.5, on 3 targets, final score 24-22. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 5 times and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 10.6; in the 7 decided by more, 14.2. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 14.3 points per game. He scored 12.29, 14% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEN | 24-17 | 6.9 | 4 | 11 | 29 | 0 | 37.9% | 68% |
| 4 | LA | 24-18 | 4.9 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 13.6% | 68% |
| 5 | CAR | 36-10 | 6.3 | 3 | 6 | 33 | 0 | 21.4% | 81% |
| 6 | JAX | 35-16 | 21.1 | 5 | 5 | 41 | 2 | 19.2% | 80% |
| 8 | WAS | 15-18 | 5.9 | 2 | 7 | 39 | 0 | 33.3% | 97% |
| 9 | ARI | 9-29 | 7.6 | 4 | 10 | 36 | 0 | 27.8% | 93% |
| 10 | NE | 3-19 | 9.4 | 5 | 6 | 44 | 0 | 23.1% | 93% |
| 11 | GB | 19-20 | 8.1 | 4 | 8 | 41 | 0 | 25.8% | 92% |
| 12 | MIN | 27-30 | 23.6 | 9 | 15 | 86 | 1 | 31.9% | 89% |
| 13 | DET | 20-23 | 24.3 | 5 | 8 | 73 | 2 | 22.2% | 96% |
| 14 | SF | 13-38 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 20.8% | 89% |
| 15 | MIN | 12-30 | 20.2 | 6 | 13 | 82 | 1 | 41.9% | 82% |
| 16 | DET | 17-34 | 29.1 | 9 | 13 | 141 | 1 | 35.1% | 92% |
| 17 | SEA | 3-6 | 7.5 | 5 | 8 | 25 | 0 | 30.8% | 95% |
| 18 | GB | 24-22 | 3.5 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 12.5% | 87% |
| Receptions | 70 |
| Targets | 121 |
| Receiving yards | 744 |
| Touchdowns | 7 |
| Points per game | 12.29 |
| Yards per target | 6.15 |
| Catch rate | 57.85% |
| Snap share | 86.8% |
| Target share | 26.49% |
| Air-yards share | 29.01% |
| WOPR | 0.6 |
| RACR | 0.875 |
| Average depth of target | 9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 7.2 |
| Total YAC | 240 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 95.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.42 |
| Red-zone targets | 15 |
| Red-zone target share | 22.1% |
| End-zone target share | 30.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 4.02 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 5 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.98 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 31 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 48 of 51 |
| Target share | 13 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 32 of 51 |
The offense threw it 566 times. He took 23% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| D.J. Moore | 26.62% |
| Keenan Allen ← | 23% |
| Rome Odunze | 19.2% |
| Cole Kmet | 10.46% |
| D'Andre Swift | 9.89% |
| Roschon Johnson | 3.8% |
6 of his 15 games were blowouts, 49% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 15.05 in those and 10.59 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 3 against MIN — 45.46 PPR on 20 targets and a 41.7% target share, in a game that finished 28-24. His worst was Week 7 against KC at 9.5, on 9 targets, final score 17-31. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 6 times and came in under 8 points 0 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 25.4; in the 5 decided by more, 15.1. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 19.8 points per game. He scored 21.45, 8.2% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | 34-36 | 14.2 | 6 | 9 | 76 | 0 | 29% | 91% |
| 2 | TEN | 24-27 | 31.1 | 8 | 10 | 111 | 2 | 25.6% | 94% |
| 3 | MIN | 28-24 | 45.46 | 18 | 20 | 215 | 1 | 41.7% | 89% |
| 4 | LV | 24-17 | 12.2 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 1 | 20.8% | 75% |
| 6 | DAL | 17-20 | 21.5 | 7 | 11 | 85 | 1 | 29.7% | 96% |
| 7 | KC | 17-31 | 9.5 | 4 | 9 | 55 | 0 | 30% | 94% |
| 8 | CHI | 30-13 | 14.9 | 8 | 10 | 69 | 0 | 26.3% | 80% |
| 9 | NYJ | 27-6 | 15.7 | 8 | 9 | 77 | 0 | 32.1% | 86% |
| 10 | DET | 38-41 | 40.5 | 11 | 14 | 175 | 2 | 35% | 75% |
| 11 | GB | 20-23 | 27.6 | 10 | 16 | 116 | 1 | 44.4% | 94% |
| 12 | BAL | 10-20 | 22.6 | 14 | 16 | 106 | 0 | 39% | 98% |
| 13 | NE | 6-0 | 10.8 | 5 | 9 | 58 | 0 | 25% | 89% |
| 14 | DEN | 7-24 | 12.8 | 6 | 12 | 68 | 0 | 29.3% | 96% |
| Receptions | 108 |
| Targets | 150 |
| Receiving yards | 1,243 |
| Carries | 2 |
| Rushing yards | 6 |
| Touchdowns | 8 |
| Points per game | 21.45 |
| Yards per target | 8.29 |
| Catch rate | 72% |
| Yards per carry | 3 |
| Snap share | 89% |
| Target share | 31.38% |
| Air-yards share | 40.63% |
| WOPR | 0.755 |
| RACR | 0.847 |
| Average depth of target | 9.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 7.8 |
| Total YAC | 396 |
| Broken tackles | 5 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 106.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 4.68 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.01 |
| Red-zone targets | 14 |
| Red-zone target share | 17.9% |
| End-zone target share | 22.2% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 4.02 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 5 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.98 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.12 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 3 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 25 of 51 |
| Target share | 3 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 6 of 51 |
The offense threw it 632 times. He took 24.47% of the targets. 0 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Keenan Allen ← | 24.47% |
| Austin Ekeler | 12.07% |
| Gerald Everett | 11.42% |
| Quentin Johnston | 10.93% |
| Josh Palmer | 9.95% |
| Donald Parham | 6.69% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 12 | 138 | 22.17 | 8.51 | 31.55% |
| Easton Stick | 1 | 12 | 12.8 | 5.67 | 29.3% |
3 of his 13 games were blowouts, 15.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 14.47 in those and 25.42 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 18 against DEN — 30.2 PPR on 11 targets and a 25% target share, in a game that finished 28-31. His worst was Week 7 against SEA at 3.1, on 2 targets, final score 23-37. Across 10 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 18.2; in the 3 decided by more, 12.1. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 15.8 points per game. He scored 16.4, 1% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 3 against 5.03 expected, a gap of -2.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LV | 24-19 | 10.6 | 4 | 4 | 66 | 0 | 11.8% | 33% |
| 7 | SEA | 23-37 | 3.1 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 3.9% | 32% |
| 11 | KC | 27-30 | 12.4 | 5 | 8 | 94 | 0 | 27.6% | 68% |
| 12 | ARI | 25-24 | 15.9 | 5 | 7 | 49 | 1 | 14.9% | 89% |
| 13 | LV | 20-27 | 20.8 | 6 | 14 | 88 | 1 | 31.1% | 96% |
| 14 | MIA | 23-17 | 21.2 | 12 | 14 | 92 | 0 | 29.2% | 86% |
| 15 | TEN | 17-14 | 16.6 | 8 | 9 | 86 | 0 | 23.7% | 89% |
| 16 | IND | 20-3 | 21.4 | 11 | 14 | 104 | 0 | 46.7% | 84% |
| 17 | LA | 31-10 | 11.8 | 5 | 6 | 60 | 0 | 19.4% | 84% |
| 18 | DEN | 28-31 | 30.2 | 8 | 11 | 102 | 2 | 25% | 76% |
| Receptions | 66 |
| Targets | 89 |
| Receiving yards | 752 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | 8 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 16.4 |
| Yards per target | 8.45 |
| Catch rate | 74.16% |
| Yards per carry | 8 |
| Snap share | 73.7% |
| Target share | 23.33% |
| Air-yards share | 28.81% |
| WOPR | 0.55 |
| RACR | 1.191 |
| Average depth of target | 8.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 7.4 |
| Total YAC | 263 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 104.7 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.72 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.06 |
| Red-zone targets | 20 |
| Red-zone target share | 17.9% |
| End-zone target share | 21.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 5.03 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | -2.03 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 11 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 23 of 51 |
| Target share | 24 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 29 of 51 |
The offense threw it 711 times. He took 12.99% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Austin Ekeler | 18.54% |
| Josh Palmer | 15.62% |
| Mike Williams | 13.58% |
| Keenan Allen ← | 12.99% |
| Gerald Everett | 12.7% |
| DeAndre Carter | 9.49% |
2 of his 10 games were blowouts, 20.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 16.6 in those and 18.24 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 9 against PHI — 22.4 PPR on 13 targets and a 35.1% target share, in a game that finished 27-24. His worst was Week 16 against HOU at 7.5, on 6 targets, final score 29-41. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 17.7; in the 6 decided by more, 13.4. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 17 points per game. He scored 16.11, 5.2% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WAS | 20-16 | 19 | 9 | 13 | 100 | 0 | 28.3% | 83% |
| 2 | DAL | 17-20 | 14.8 | 4 | 8 | 108 | 0 | 20% | 92% |
| 3 | KC | 30-24 | 19 | 8 | 12 | 50 | 1 | 34.3% | 83% |
| 4 | LV | 28-14 | 10.6 | 7 | 11 | 36 | 0 | 28.9% | 88% |
| 5 | CLE | 47-42 | 13.5 | 6 | 9 | 75 | 0 | 21.4% | 91% |
| 6 | BAL | 6-34 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 50 | 0 | 12.8% | 91% |
| 8 | NE | 24-27 | 19.7 | 6 | 11 | 77 | 1 | 32.4% | 98% |
| 9 | PHI | 27-24 | 22.4 | 12 | 13 | 104 | 0 | 35.1% | 90% |
| 10 | MIN | 20-27 | 17.8 | 8 | 11 | 98 | 0 | 33.3% | 93% |
| 11 | PIT | 41-37 | 20.2 | 9 | 13 | 112 | 0 | 31.7% | 82% |
| 12 | DEN | 13-28 | 15.5 | 7 | 10 | 85 | 0 | 22.7% | 86% |
| 13 | CIN | 41-22 | 22.4 | 5 | 8 | 34 | 2 | 22.9% | 83% |
| 15 | KC | 28-34 | 19.8 | 6 | 10 | 78 | 1 | 27% | 78% |
| 16 | HOU | 29-41 | 7.5 | 4 | 6 | 35 | 0 | 17.6% | 89% |
| 17 | DEN | 34-13 | 14.4 | 4 | 9 | 44 | 1 | 30% | 73% |
| 18 | LV | 32-35 | 11.2 | 6 | 8 | 52 | 0 | 12.5% | 88% |
| Receptions | 106 |
| Targets | 157 |
| Receiving yards | 1,138 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 16.11 |
| Yards per target | 7.25 |
| Catch rate | 67.52% |
| Snap share | 86.75% |
| Target share | 25.68% |
| Air-yards share | 29.76% |
| WOPR | 0.593 |
| RACR | 0.932 |
| Average depth of target | 8.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 7.6 |
| Total YAC | 337 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 88 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.92 |
| Red-zone targets | 25 |
| Red-zone target share | 23.4% |
| End-zone target share | 25.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 6.41 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 6 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.41 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 11 of 48 |
| Yards per target | 38 of 48 |
| Target share | 14 of 48 |
| Air-yards share | 21 of 48 |
The offense threw it 673 times. He took 23.97% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Keenan Allen ← | 23.97% |
| Mike Williams | 19.69% |
| Austin Ekeler | 14.35% |
| Jared Cook | 12.67% |
| Josh Palmer | 7.48% |
| Jalen Guyton | 7.33% |
3 of his 16 games were blowouts, 18.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 15.6 in those and 17.74 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 11 against NYJ — 34.5 PPR on 19 targets and a 39.6% target share, in a game that finished 34-28. His worst was Week 15 against LV at 2.6, on 3 targets, final score 30-27. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 6 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 17.9; in the 3 decided by more, 16.1. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 18.9 points per game. He scored 17.51, 7.5% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 7 against 3.84 expected, a gap of 3.2.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIN | 16-13 | 7.7 | 4 | 8 | 37 | 0 | 27.6% | 95% |
| 2 | KC | 20-23 | 16.6 | 7 | 10 | 96 | 0 | 33.3% | 98% |
| 3 | CAR | 16-21 | 30.2 | 13 | 19 | 132 | 1 | 39.6% | 96% |
| 4 | TB | 31-38 | 14.2 | 8 | 11 | 62 | 0 | 44% | 94% |
| 5 | NO | 27-30 | 10.9 | 2 | 2 | 29 | 1 | 6.3% | 17% |
| 7 | JAX | 39-29 | 22.5 | 10 | 13 | 125 | 0 | 31% | 85% |
| 8 | DEN | 30-31 | 21.7 | 9 | 12 | 67 | 1 | 28.6% | 98% |
| 9 | LV | 26-31 | 25.3 | 9 | 11 | 103 | 1 | 26.8% | 99% |
| 10 | MIA | 21-29 | 12.9 | 3 | 7 | 39 | 1 | 21.9% | 86% |
| 11 | NYJ | 34-28 | 34.5 | 16 | 19 | 145 | 1 | 39.6% | 95% |
| 12 | BUF | 17-27 | 16 | 4 | 10 | 40 | 1 | 19.6% | 94% |
| 13 | NE | 0-45 | 9.8 | 5 | 11 | 48 | 0 | 21.2% | 86% |
| 14 | ATL | 20-17 | 20.2 | 9 | 11 | 52 | 1 | 25% | 78% |
| 15 | LV | 30-27 | 2.6 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 9.4% | 36% |
| Receptions | 100 |
| Targets | 147 |
| Receiving yards | 992 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | -1 |
| Touchdowns | 8 |
| Points per game | 17.51 |
| Yards per target | 6.75 |
| Catch rate | 68.03% |
| Yards per carry | -1 |
| Snap share | 82.64% |
| Target share | 26.71% |
| Air-yards share | 25.63% |
| WOPR | 0.58 |
| RACR | 1.013 |
| Average depth of target | 7.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 5.6 |
| Total YAC | 437 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 90.9 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.14 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.07 |
| Red-zone targets | 17 |
| Red-zone target share | 21% |
| End-zone target share | 25% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.84 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 7 |
| Receiving TD luck | 3.16 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 7 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 47 of 51 |
| Target share | 8 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 32 of 51 |
The offense threw it 627 times. He took 24.34% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Keenan Allen ← | 24.34% |
| Hunter Henry | 15.4% |
| Mike Williams | 14.07% |
| Austin Ekeler | 10.76% |
| Jalen Guyton | 9.11% |
| Kalen Ballage | 4.47% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 13 | 139 | 18.26 | 6.87 | 26.64% |
| Tyrod Taylor | 1 | 8 | 7.7 | 4.63 | 27.6% |
1 of his 14 games were blowouts, 4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9.8 in those and 17.89 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
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