Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 12.98 points per game in 2025, usage worth 12.7.
26 years old · 3 seasons of experience · 2023 draft class
Our board has him at 159.8 points, 9.7 per game — 59.7 catches, 755 yards, 4.1 TDs. That is WR5, 107 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 7.6 points per game to a ceiling of 13.5, with the median at 9.7. Boom rate 39%, bust rate 22%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
Arizona Cardinals returns 2 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1, rb1, hc, oc. Jacoby Brissett at quarterback, Mike LaFleur as head coach, Nathaniel Hackett calling it. The offense projects to 31.9 pass attempts a game at low confidence and 24.8 rushes.
In: Carson Beck (qb), Carson Beck (qb2), Gardner Minshew II (qb2), Kendrick Bourne (wr3), Devin Duvernay (wr5), Reggie Virgil (wr6), Jeremiyah Love (rb1), Tyler Allgeier (rb2). Out: Kyler Murray (qb), Greg Dortch (wr3), Zay Jones (wr4), Jalen Brooks (wr6), Emari Demercado (rb2), Michael Carter (rb3).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 13.9%, with a bear case of 12.5% and a bull case of 14.9% and a full range of 11% to 16.4%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Trey McBride | 21.8% |
| Marvin Harrison Jr | 14.4% |
| Michael Wilson ← | 13.9% |
| Jeremiyah Love | 10% |
| Elijah Higgins | 6.2% |
| James Conner | 6.1% |
What the offense looks like: The Cardinals have interesting pieces on their offense but the offensive line and lack of a franchise QB is holding them back. IF Arizona can figure out the QB position, player value across the board SHOULD explode (Mcbride already ballin). Jeremiyah Love COULD have a slower start in 2026 but is a candidate to have a top 10 PPR fantasy season 100%.
Key additions: Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame) RB drafted 1st round 3rd overall. drafted guard Chase Bisontis 2nd round (Texas A&M). Drafed Carson Beck QB Miami 3rd round. Drafted WR Reggie Virgil (Texas Tech) 5th round. Signed G Issac Seumalo to 3/$31M (starting O line). Signed Tyler Allgeier ATL RB to 2 year $12.25M deal. Signed Kendrick Bourne 2/$10M deal. Signed QB Gardner Minshew II 1/$8M. Signed Devin Duvernay WR on 1 year (kick returner most likely).
Key departures: Kyler Murray was cut & signed with Minnesota. WR3 Greg Dortch left to Detroit. RB4 Emari Demercado left in free agency.
Notes: Love arrives as 1.03 pick — immediate RB1 candidate. Mike LaFleur hired as new HC (Shanahan & McVay tree). OC is Nathaniel Hackett. Arizona signed Tyler Allgeier from Atlanta, will compete with James Conner for Backup. Expect Trey Benson COULD be traded or compete for backup. Cardinals drafted Carson Beck Round 3 of 2026 draft & MAY compete with Brissett who is looking for a new contract. Brissett likely week 1 starter. Michael Wilson MAY establish himself as a TRUE WR2 in 2026 (Trending in right direction). MHJ WR1 breakout candidate, but has yet to demonstrate consistency. If the O line does not improve, Jeremiyah Love will have a difficult rookie season similar to Ashton Jeanty in Las Vegas. Arizona will need better QB play for any players to have consistent weekly fantasy upside in 2026. It is possible Brissett can continue to support volume for McBride, but one of Michael Wilson or MHJ will have to benefit. Both cannot have high finishes most likely.
How the volume number was reached: New QB Jacoby Brissett, avg 28.8 att/g over 2025,2024; Regressed 65% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 31.9 att/g; New OC Nathaniel Hackett — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Mike LaFleur.
29 historical comps for WRs age ~24, prior share 16.8%, same team, OC change, QB change. Distribution: median 17.4%, p25-p75 [13.1%, 20.1%], tails [8.9%, 24.4%]. Closest comps: George Pickens 2022→2023 (PIT: 16.0%→24.2%); Michael Gallup 2020→2021 (DAL: 19.4%→16.7%); Brandin Cooks 2023→2024 (DAL: 18.5%→16.6%). Adjustment: flat from opportunity_breakout (volume must hold)
self-anchored 58% to own 16.8% role (3yr), 42% to comp median 17.4%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: ARI rates 19.1 against a league average of 23, 3.8 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -0.8 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | -0.5 · neutral |
| Weeks 12–17 | -0.8 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -1 · neutral |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2 | Greg Dortch | +4.4 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +88.6% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, WRs crash the following year 40% of the time (hold 60%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 40% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Davis | 2022 | 11.4 | 79% | +8.1% |
| Romeo Doubs | 2024 | 10.2 | 78% | +17.3% |
| Jakobi Meyers | 2022 | 13 | 74% | +25% |
| Kendrick Bourne | 2023 | 12.5 | 72% | +6.2% |
| Brandin Cooks | 2022 | 11.2 | 72% | +2.9% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 5 gained value, 0 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2023, round 3, pick 94 by ARI |
| College | Stanford |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| Height | 6′2″ |
| Weight | 213 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.58s |
| Vertical | 37.5″ |
| Broad jump | 125″ |
| Shuttle | 4.27s |
| Career PPR per game | 10.8 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.8 |
| Boom rate | 27% |
| Bust rate | 21.6% |
| Games missed per season | 0.7 |
| Injury history | Shoulder |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | -0.17 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 14 against LA — 37.2 PPR on 16 targets and a 36.4% target share, in a game that finished 17-45. His worst was Week 3 against SF at 1.5, on 2 targets, final score 15-16. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 7.6; in the 7 decided by more, 20.6. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 12.7 points per game. He scored 12.98, 2.5% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 4 against 2.96 expected, a gap of 1.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | 20-13 | 1.5 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 13.8% | 67% |
| 2 | CAR | 27-22 | 8.1 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 8% | 69% |
| 3 | SF | 15-16 | 1.5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 5.9% | 74% |
| 4 | SEA | 20-23 | 4.5 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 0 | 15% | 97% |
| 5 | TEN | 21-22 | 3.6 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 13.3% | 69% |
| 6 | IND | 27-31 | 8.4 | 4 | 5 | 44 | 0 | 12.8% | 75% |
| 7 | GB | 23-27 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 11.8% | 82% |
| 9 | DAL | 27-17 | 9.1 | 3 | 4 | 61 | 0 | 13.8% | 72% |
| 10 | SEA | 22-44 | 7.4 | 4 | 7 | 34 | 0 | 15.9% | 92% |
| 11 | SF | 22-41 | 33.5 | 15 | 18 | 185 | 0 | 32.1% | 82% |
| 12 | JAX | 24-27 | 21.8 | 10 | 15 | 118 | 0 | 32.6% | 82% |
| 13 | TB | 17-20 | 6.6 | 3 | 7 | 36 | 0 | 18.9% | 93% |
| 14 | LA | 17-45 | 37.2 | 11 | 16 | 142 | 2 | 36.4% | 79% |
| 15 | HOU | 20-40 | 16.4 | 5 | 11 | 54 | 1 | 28.9% | 85% |
| 16 | ATL | 19-26 | 13.2 | 2 | 3 | 52 | 1 | 10.3% | 86% |
| 17 | CIN | 14-37 | 19.9 | 5 | 10 | 89 | 1 | 28.6% | 86% |
| 18 | LA | 20-37 | 20.9 | 5 | 8 | 99 | 1 | 28.6% | 93% |
| Receptions | 78 |
| Targets | 126 |
| Receiving yards | 1,006 |
| Touchdowns | 7 |
| Points per game | 12.98 |
| Yards per target | 7.98 |
| Catch rate | 61.9% |
| Snap share | 81.35% |
| Target share | 19.22% |
| Air-yards share | 31.24% |
| WOPR | 0.508 |
| RACR | 0.663 |
| Average depth of target | 11.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.5 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 9.4 |
| Total YAC | 273 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 88.9 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.52 |
| Red-zone targets | 16 |
| Red-zone target share | 15.7% |
| End-zone target share | 20.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.96 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.04 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 16 of 44 |
| Yards per target | 23 of 44 |
| Target share | 33 of 44 |
| Air-yards share | 27 of 44 |
The offense threw it 648 times. He took 20.42% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Trey McBride | 27.39% |
| Michael Wilson ← | 20.42% |
| Marvin Harrison | 11.83% |
| Michael Carter | 7.29% |
| Elijah Higgins | 6% |
| Greg Dortch | 5.35% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 12 | 108 | 16.78 | 8.83 | 22.56% |
| Kyler Murray | 5 | 18 | 3.84 | 2.89 | 11.2% |
6 of his 17 games were blowouts, 61.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 22.55 in those and 7.62 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 3 against DET — 14.4 PPR on 9 targets and a 26.5% target share, in a game that finished 13-20. His worst was Week 9 against CHI at 0, on 1 targets, final score 29-9. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 9.4; in the 8 decided by more, 6.2. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 7.9 points per game. He scored 7.78, 1% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 28-34 | 7.5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6.5% | 80% |
| 2 | LA | 41-10 | 5.1 | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 | 9.5% | 68% |
| 3 | DET | 13-20 | 14.4 | 8 | 9 | 64 | 0 | 26.5% | 90% |
| 4 | WAS | 14-42 | 4.8 | 3 | 7 | 38 | 0 | 31.8% | 85% |
| 5 | SF | 24-23 | 12.8 | 5 | 6 | 78 | 0 | 20% | 72% |
| 6 | GB | 13-34 | 10.1 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 1 | 12.5% | 95% |
| 7 | LAC | 17-15 | 2.5 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 12% | 77% |
| 8 | MIA | 28-27 | 14.1 | 5 | 6 | 31 | 1 | 18.2% | 70% |
| 9 | CHI | 29-9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5.3% | 71% |
| 10 | NYJ | 31-6 | 5.4 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 16.7% | 66% |
| 12 | SEA | 6-16 | 7.4 | 2 | 4 | 54 | 0 | 11.8% | 83% |
| 13 | MIN | 22-23 | 10.5 | 5 | 7 | 55 | 0 | 16.3% | 82% |
| 14 | SEA | 18-30 | 13.7 | 2 | 3 | 57 | 1 | 7.9% | 83% |
| 15 | NE | 30-17 | 2.9 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 6.5% | 74% |
| 16 | CAR | 30-36 | 6.4 | 2 | 5 | 44 | 0 | 17.2% | 90% |
| 17 | LA | 9-13 | 6.9 | 4 | 6 | 22 | 0 | 13.3% | 87% |
| Receptions | 47 |
| Targets | 71 |
| Receiving yards | 548 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | 7 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 7.78 |
| Yards per target | 7.72 |
| Catch rate | 66.2% |
| Yards per carry | 7 |
| Snap share | 79.56% |
| Target share | 14.5% |
| Air-yards share | 24.07% |
| WOPR | 0.385 |
| RACR | 0.687 |
| Average depth of target | 11.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 2.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8.9 |
| Total YAC | 130 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 90.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.63 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.05 |
| Red-zone targets | 8 |
| Red-zone target share | 11.9% |
| End-zone target share | 17.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.17 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.83 |
The offense threw it 543 times. He took 13.58% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Trey McBride | 28.11% |
| Marvin Harrison | 22.18% |
| Michael Wilson ← | 13.58% |
| James Conner | 10.52% |
| Greg Dortch | 9.56% |
| Elijah Higgins | 4.59% |
5 of his 16 games were blowouts, 20.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5.08 in those and 9.39 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 4 against SF — 26.6 PPR on 7 targets and a 17.1% target share, in a game that finished 16-35. His worst was Week 16 against CHI at 0, on 4 targets, final score 16-27. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 10; in the 7 decided by more, 7.8. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 7.7 points per game. He scored 8.81, 14.8% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 3 against 1.9 expected, a gap of 1.1.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WAS | 16-20 | 3.9 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 13.3% | 90% |
| 2 | NYG | 28-31 | 8.6 | 3 | 3 | 56 | 0 | 10.3% | 43% |
| 3 | DAL | 28-16 | 10.6 | 2 | 2 | 86 | 0 | 9.5% | 67% |
| 4 | SF | 16-35 | 26.6 | 7 | 7 | 76 | 2 | 17.1% | 70% |
| 5 | CIN | 20-34 | 2.8 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 6.7% | 75% |
| 6 | LA | 9-26 | 9.2 | 3 | 4 | 62 | 0 | 10.5% | 88% |
| 7 | SEA | 10-20 | 5.6 | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 15.2% | 83% |
| 8 | BAL | 24-31 | 9.8 | 4 | 6 | 58 | 0 | 16.7% | 88% |
| 10 | ATL | 25-23 | 6.4 | 3 | 6 | 34 | 0 | 19.4% | 89% |
| 15 | SF | 29-45 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7.9% | 88% |
| 16 | CHI | 16-27 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10.8% | 90% |
| 17 | PHI | 35-31 | 15.5 | 4 | 6 | 35 | 1 | 19.4% | 86% |
| 18 | SEA | 20-21 | 15.5 | 6 | 6 | 95 | 0 | 20.7% | 83% |
| Receptions | 38 |
| Targets | 58 |
| Receiving yards | 565 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 8.81 |
| Yards per target | 9.74 |
| Catch rate | 65.52% |
| Snap share | 80% |
| Target share | 13.65% |
| Air-yards share | 24.53% |
| WOPR | 0.377 |
| RACR | 0.797 |
| Average depth of target | 12.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 11.2 |
| Total YAC | 139 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 100.1 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.47 |
| Red-zone targets | 7 |
| Red-zone target share | 11.7% |
| End-zone target share | 20.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.9 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.1 |
The offense threw it 555 times. He took 10.74% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Trey McBride | 19.63% |
| Marquise Brown | 18.7% |
| Rondale Moore | 11.48% |
| Michael Wilson ← | 10.74% |
| Zach Ertz | 7.96% |
| Greg Dortch | 7.59% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Dobbs | 8 | 33 | 9.64 | 12.15 | 12.41% |
| Kyler Murray | 5 | 25 | 7.48 | 6.56 | 15.64% |
2 of his 13 games were blowouts, 31.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 17.9 in those and 9.95 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
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