Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 21.17 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 6.3, usage worth 16.1.
24 years old · 3 seasons of experience · 2023 draft class
| SLEEPER | 6.5 |
| ESPN | 5.8 |
| YAHOO | 6.5 |
| UNDERDOG | 5.5 |
| CBS | 6.3 |
| FFA | 7 |
| Goes around | Round 1, pick 6 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR3 |
| Bye week | 11 |
| ADP standard deviation | 0.3 picks |
Our board has him at 301.5 points, 18.4 per game — 102.4 catches, 1,407 yards, 8.4 TDs. That is WR1, 7 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 16.1 points per game to a ceiling of 25, with the median at 18.4. Boom rate 36%, bust rate 12%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 6.3 on consensus and our board has him 7. Those agree, so there is no market disagreement to exploit. The question is whether you want the profile, not whether it is mispriced.
Ideal early-WR anchor in redraft: a high-floor 'won't-dud' profile like Amon-Ra, not a boom/bust type. Coordinator change is a minor worry, but role and target share are secure. When you start WR early then go RB-RB, you want exactly this stability.
buy · high conviction · 2026-06-14Seattle Seahawks returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing rb1, oc. Sam Darnold at quarterback, Mike Macdonald as head coach, Brian Fleury calling it. The offense projects to 30.4 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 28.4 rushes.
In: Rashid Shaheed (wr2), Emmanuel Henderson Jr (wr6), Levi Wentz (wr7), Jadarian Price (rb1), Emmanuel Wilson (rb3). Out: Rasheed Shaheed (wr2), Kenneth Walker III (rb1), Zach Charbonett (rb2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 27.3%, with a bear case of 26.1% and a bull case of 28.3% and a full range of 24.9% to 29%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba ← | 27.3% |
| Cooper Kupp | 15.3% |
| AJ Barner | 11.9% |
| Rashid Shaheed | 10.8% |
| Jadarian Price | 9% |
| Emmanuel Henderson Jr | 6.2% |
What the offense looks like: High powered offense that SHOULD be ok without OC Klint Kubiak (could possibly be a concern). Capable of putting up 40 points any game.
Key additions: Extended WR Rashid Shaheed on 3 year deal. Signed RB Emmanuel Wilson from Packers in free agency (HIGHLY CAPABLE BACKUP), Drafted RB Jadarian Price in the 1st round from ND.
Key departures: SuperBowl MVP RB Kenneth Walker III left for Chiefs in free agency. OC Klint Kubiak left to become Raiders HC this offseason.
Notes: RB Price round 1 RB. with Charbonnet recovering from torn ACL. Lose OC Kubiak to Raiders. JSN top dynasty asset (ELITE). Shaheed could see expanded role in 2026 with full offseason with team. Charbonnet has never truly broken out & torn ACL places concern on productivity when back from injury. Signed RB Emmanuel Wilson in free agency & he could really hurt Price production early (this is a real concern). Cooper Kupp is dust & totally cooked. Tory Horton could be a break out candidate in 2026. Darnold needs to be rostered in all formats & decent low end QB1 with a high powered offense.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Sam Darnold returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (28.2 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 30.4 att/g; New OC Brian Fleury — pass rate and tempo may shift.
29 historical comps for WRs age ~24, prior share 29.1%, same team, OC change. Distribution: median 28.1%, p25-p75 [25.1%, 30.4%], tails [22.1%, 32.2%]. Closest comps: Stefon Diggs 2020→2021 (BUF: 27.6%→25.9%); Amon-Ra St. Brown 2023→2024 (DET: 28.1%→26.7%); Amon-Ra St. Brown 2024→2025 (DET: 27.9%→31.7%). Adjustment: flat from opportunity_breakout (volume must hold)
self-anchored 58% to own 29.1% role (3yr), 42% to comp median 28.1%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: SEA rates 25 against a league average of 23, 2 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +0.6 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | -0.2 · neutral |
| Weeks 12–17 | +1.1 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -9.6 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full Jaxon Smith-Njigba study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +48.8% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, WRs crash the following year 40% of the time (hold 60%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 40% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 2023 | 20.7 | 64% | +12.3% |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 2024 | 23.7 | 58% | +11.4% |
| Justin Jefferson | 2022 | 21.7 | 58% | +29.1% |
| Davante Adams | 2022 | 19.7 | 56% | +3.8% |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 2022 | 20.2 | 56% | +27% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 5 gained value, 0 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2023, round 1, pick 20 by SEA |
| College | Ohio St. |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| Height | 6′1″ |
| Weight | 196 lb |
| Vertical | 35″ |
| Broad jump | 125″ |
| 3-cone | 6.57s |
| Shuttle | 3.93s |
| Career PPR per game | 15.6 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.5 |
| Boom rate | 16.7% |
| Bust rate | 11.9% |
| Games missed per season | 0 |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.24 |
His best game was Week 12 against TEN — 37.1 PPR on 10 targets and a 40% target share, in a game that finished 30-24. His worst was Week 13 against MIN at 4.3, on 4 targets, final score 26-0. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 10 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 24; in the 8 decided by more, 18. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 16.1 points per game. He scored 21.17, 26.7% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 8 against 5.42 expected, a gap of 2.6.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF | 13-17 | 19.4 | 9 | 13 | 124 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 59.1% | 77% |
| 2 | PIT | 31-17 | 18.3 | 8 | 10 | 103 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 33.3% | 65% |
| 3 | NO | 44-13 | 20.6 | 5 | 6 | 96 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 30% | 49% |
| 4 | ARI | 23-20 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 79 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 20.8% | 80% |
| 5 | TB | 35-38 | 27.2 | 8 | 9 | 132 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 26.5% | 90% |
| 6 | JAX | 20-12 | 30.2 | 8 | 13 | 162 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 54.2% | 82% |
| 7 | HOU | 27-19 | 26.3 | 8 | 14 | 123 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 48.3% | 88% |
| 9 | WAS | 38-14 | 22 | 8 | 9 | 129 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 37.5% | 67% |
| 10 | ARI | 44-22 | 20.3 | 5 | 6 | 93 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 50% | 42% |
| 11 | LA | 19-21 | 20.6 | 9 | 12 | 105 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 28.6% | 83% |
| 12 | TEN | 30-24 | 37.1 | 8 | 10 | 167 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 40% | 79% |
| 13 | MIN | 26-0 | 4.3 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17.4% | 82% |
| 14 | ATL | 37-9 | 28.1 | 7 | 10 | 92 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 33.3% | 72% |
| 15 | IND | 18-16 | 18.3 | 7 | 9 | 113 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27.3% | 92% |
| 16 | LA | 38-37 | 23.6 | 8 | 13 | 96 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 41.9% | 96% |
| 17 | CAR | 27-10 | 16.2 | 9 | 12 | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 46.2% | 89% |
| 18 | SF | 13-3 | 14.4 | 6 | 8 | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30.8% | 83% |
| Receptions | 119 |
| Targets | 163 |
| Receiving yards | 1,793 |
| Carries | 7 |
| Rushing yards | 36 |
| Touchdowns | 10 |
| Points per game | 21.17 |
| Yards per target | 11 |
| Catch rate | 73.01% |
| Yards per carry | 5.14 |
| Snap share | 77.41% |
| Target share | 36.78% |
| Air-yards share | 50.44% |
| WOPR | 0.904 |
| RACR | 1.142 |
| Average depth of target | 11.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 10.6 |
| Total YAC | 528 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 116.4 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 5.33 |
| Red-zone targets | 23 |
| Red-zone target share | 29.1% |
| End-zone target share | 40% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 5.42 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 8 |
| Receiving TD luck | 2.58 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 2 of 44 |
| Yards per target | 2 of 44 |
| Target share | 1 of 44 |
| Air-yards share | 1 of 44 |
The offense threw it 481 times. He took 35.82% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba ← | 35.82% |
| Cooper Kupp | 15.38% |
| A.J. Barner | 14.95% |
| Kenneth Walker | 7.91% |
| Rashid Shaheed | 5.71% |
| Elijah Arroyo | 5.71% |
6 of his 17 games were blowouts, 31% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 18.58 in those and 23.97 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 9 against LA — 37 PPR on 13 targets and a 38.2% target share, in a game that finished 20-26. His worst was Week 1 against DEN at 3.9, on 2 targets, final score 26-20. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 16.7; in the 9 decided by more, 13.2. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 14.3 points per game. He scored 14.88, 4.2% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | 26-20 | 3.9 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 8% | 79% |
| 2 | NE | 23-20 | 23.7 | 12 | 16 | 117 | 0 | 37.2% | 83% |
| 3 | MIA | 24-3 | 6.9 | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 | 9.1% | 88% |
| 4 | DET | 29-42 | 13.1 | 8 | 12 | 51 | 0 | 22.6% | 84% |
| 5 | NYG | 20-29 | 13.1 | 4 | 7 | 31 | 1 | 17.9% | 88% |
| 6 | SF | 24-36 | 10.3 | 5 | 9 | 53 | 0 | 18.8% | 94% |
| 7 | ATL | 34-14 | 5.3 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 21.4% | 85% |
| 8 | BUF | 10-31 | 12.9 | 6 | 7 | 69 | 0 | 25.9% | 82% |
| 9 | LA | 20-26 | 37 | 7 | 13 | 180 | 2 | 38.2% | 89% |
| 11 | SF | 20-17 | 21.8 | 10 | 11 | 110 | 0 | 35.5% | 83% |
| 12 | ARI | 16-6 | 19.7 | 6 | 7 | 77 | 1 | 25% | 66% |
| 13 | NYJ | 26-21 | 11.9 | 4 | 4 | 74 | 0 | 13.8% | 77% |
| 14 | ARI | 30-18 | 19.6 | 5 | 5 | 82 | 1 | 17.2% | 97% |
| 15 | GB | 13-30 | 18.3 | 10 | 12 | 83 | 0 | 38.7% | 95% |
| 16 | MIN | 24-27 | 24 | 8 | 12 | 95 | 1 | 28.6% | 88% |
| 17 | CHI | 6-3 | 6.2 | 3 | 6 | 32 | 0 | 27.3% | 96% |
| 18 | LA | 30-25 | 5.3 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 18.5% | 95% |
| Receptions | 100 |
| Targets | 137 |
| Receiving yards | 1,130 |
| Carries | 5 |
| Rushing yards | 26 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 14.88 |
| Yards per target | 8.25 |
| Catch rate | 72.99% |
| Yards per carry | 5.2 |
| Snap share | 86.41% |
| Target share | 23.75% |
| Air-yards share | 29.28% |
| WOPR | 0.561 |
| RACR | 1.502 |
| Average depth of target | 8.7 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6.5 |
| Total YAC | 477 |
| Broken tackles | 4 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 99.7 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.85 |
| Red-zone targets | 15 |
| Red-zone target share | 25% |
| End-zone target share | 30% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 4.17 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 5 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.83 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 18 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 24 of 51 |
| Target share | 29 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 31 of 51 |
The offense threw it 593 times. He took 24.08% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba ← | 24.08% |
| DK Metcalf | 18.98% |
| Tyler Lockett | 13.01% |
| Noah Fant | 11.25% |
| Kenneth Walker | 9.31% |
| Zach Charbonnet | 9.14% |
4 of his 17 games were blowouts, 17.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 10.85 in those and 16.73 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 7 against ARI — 16.3 PPR on 7 targets and a 29.2% target share, in a game that finished 20-10. His worst was Week 3 against CAR at 2, on 3 targets, final score 37-27. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 9.9; in the 7 decided by more, 7.3. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 9.4 points per game. He scored 8.81, 6.3% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA | 13-30 | 4.3 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 20.8% | 59% |
| 2 | DET | 37-31 | 8.4 | 5 | 6 | 34 | 0 | 16.2% | 56% |
| 3 | CAR | 37-27 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 8.6% | 44% |
| 4 | NYG | 24-3 | 3.5 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 23.1% | 53% |
| 6 | CIN | 13-17 | 8.8 | 4 | 5 | 48 | 0 | 13.5% | 72% |
| 7 | ARI | 20-10 | 16.3 | 4 | 7 | 63 | 1 | 29.2% | 63% |
| 8 | CLE | 24-20 | 12.6 | 3 | 4 | 36 | 1 | 11.1% | 66% |
| 9 | BAL | 3-37 | 12.3 | 6 | 7 | 63 | 0 | 28% | 82% |
| 10 | WAS | 29-26 | 9.3 | 4 | 5 | 53 | 0 | 11.9% | 62% |
| 11 | LA | 16-17 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 40 | 0 | 15.8% | 68% |
| 12 | SF | 13-31 | 6.1 | 2 | 3 | 41 | 0 | 11.1% | 75% |
| 13 | DAL | 35-41 | 13.2 | 7 | 11 | 62 | 0 | 28.9% | 67% |
| 14 | SF | 16-28 | 6.5 | 4 | 7 | 25 | 0 | 22.6% | 71% |
| 15 | PHI | 20-17 | 14.8 | 4 | 4 | 48 | 1 | 12.5% | 69% |
| 16 | TEN | 20-17 | 12.1 | 6 | 7 | 61 | 0 | 19.4% | 63% |
| 17 | PIT | 23-30 | 8.2 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 6.1% | 67% |
| 18 | ARI | 21-20 | 4.4 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 19.2% | 65% |
| Receptions | 63 |
| Targets | 93 |
| Receiving yards | 628 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 8.81 |
| Yards per target | 6.75 |
| Catch rate | 67.74% |
| Snap share | 64.82% |
| Target share | 17.53% |
| Air-yards share | 13.91% |
| WOPR | 0.36 |
| RACR | 0.979 |
| Average depth of target | 6.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 4.2 |
| Total YAC | 366 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 92 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.72 |
| Red-zone targets | 10 |
| Red-zone target share | 15.2% |
| End-zone target share | 11.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.07 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.07 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 47 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 44 of 51 |
| Target share | 44 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 51 of 51 |
The offense threw it 575 times. He took 17.03% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Tyler Lockett | 22.34% |
| DK Metcalf | 21.79% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba ← | 17.03% |
| Noah Fant | 7.88% |
| Zach Charbonnet | 7.33% |
| Kenneth Walker | 6.78% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 15 | 82 | 8.57 | 6.77 | 17.53% |
| Drew Lock | 2 | 11 | 10.65 | 6.64 | 17.55% |
4 of his 17 games were blowouts, 17.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.55 in those and 9.88 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about Jaxon Smith-Njigba →