RB · BUF · GWTTKB

James Cook — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 17.78 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 11.4, usage worth 15.4.

26 years old · 4 seasons of experience · 2022 draft class

Updated 2026-08-16 · free, no account, no paywall
Every figure below comes from our database. Where a stat is not held, the row is absent rather than zero.
ADP 11.4
Consensus across 4 books, standard deviation 1.3, 3.1 picks between cheapest and priciest. Cheapest on espn, priciest on yahoo.
SLEEPER10.9
ESPN13
YAHOO9.9
UNDERDOG10.2
CBS11.8
FFA10

Draft-room facts

Goes aroundRound 1, pick 11 in a 12-team draft
Positional rankRB5
Bye week7
ADP standard deviation1.3 picks

What we project for 2026

Our board has him at 266.9 points, 16.7 per game — 1,319 rushing yards, 9.9 rushing TDs, 33 catches. That is RB1, 10 overall.

The range runs from a floor of 10.6 points per game to a ceiling of 21.5, with the median at 16.7. Boom rate 29%, bust rate 37%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.

He goes at 11.4 on consensus and our board has him 10. Those agree, so there is no market disagreement to exploit. The question is whether you want the profile, not whether it is mispriced.

Our written view

Bills have the hardest opening schedule and Cook's receiving cratered in past losses, so a slow start is likely. Don't pay the tail-1st price in main redraft; let him start slow, then buy low expecting a second-half rise.

hesitant · medium conviction · 2026-06-05

The offense he plays in, 2026

Buffalo Bills returns 3 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1, hc, oc. Josh Allen at quarterback, Joe Brady as head coach, Pete Carmichael Jr. calling it. The offense projects to 31.5 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 29.2 rushes.

In: Kyle Allen (qb2), DJ Moore (wr1), Skyler Bell (wr4), Trent Sherfield (wr7). Out: Curtis Samuel (wr4).

The projected carry split across the offense:

James Cook 67.6%
Ray Davis19.9%
Ty Johnson11%
Frank Gore Jr1.5%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

What the offense looks like: This is a high powered offense centered around Josh Allen & James Cook. Over the past few years, the Bills have struggled to surround Allen with the weapons he needs in the passsing game. Kincaid HAS NOT made the leap or returned his 1st round draft capital despite what people say. The move to get DJ Moore was very intentional & GM Brandon Beane believes Moore is a locked in WR1 for Buffalo. Shakir is going to be a strong contributor but the DJ Moore trade likely hurts his value.

Key additions: Bills traded a 2nd round pick for to Bears for WR DJ Moore & extended on 4 year deal. C Lloyd Cushenberry 1 year deal. G/C Austin Corbett from Panthers (starter). WR Trent Sherfield from Minnesota (depth).

Key departures: David Edwards (starting LG), WR Curtis Samuel was released. Back up QB Mitch Trubisky signed with the Titans.

Notes: The Bills fired Sean McDermott following their loss to Denver in the playoffs in 2025. Joe Brady (standout OC) was promoted to HCThe Keon Coleman breakout may not ever happen. Bills traded for DJ Moore from Bears & under contract for 4 years. Large opportunity to emerge as main pass catcher in offense. Shakir reliable but no true ceiling yet. Allen 30 but still elite. Bills draft Skyler Bell WR from UConn 6 foor 192 LB 4.40 second 40 yard dash. Large opportunity for Bell in long run. Kincaid health remains a question. Opted to not get PCL surgery AGAIN & new HC Joe Brady says they will manage pain throughout 2026. James Cook will continue to produce as a top 10 PPR fantasy back IF he stays healthy. Very underrated runner.

How the volume number was reached: Same QB Josh Allen returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (29.1 att/g); Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 31.5 att/g; New OC Pete Carmichael Jr. — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Joe Brady.

How the carry projection was built

Projected carry share67.6%
Projected carries per game16.2
Projected carries, full season275
Last season, carries per game18.3

That is a reduction of 2.2 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 29.2 rushing attempts a game.

Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.

Offensive environment: BUF rates 26.9 against a league average of 23, 3.9 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season-3.9 · harder
Weeks 1–6-9.1 · harder
Weeks 12–17-7.1 · harder
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)-4.4 · harder

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

Read the full James Cook study →

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved +30.4% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, RBs crash the following year 59% of the time (hold 41%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 59% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

PlayerSeasonTheir PPGSimilarityNext year
Nick Chubb202216.666%-4.5%
Jonathan Taylor202417.564%+25.4%
David Montgomery202314.863%+26.8%
Josh Jacobs202417.262%+0.9%
Jonathan Taylor202315.659%+17.3%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 3 gained value, 1 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

02,0004,0006,0002023202420252026
Monthly superflex value, 2022-03 to 2026-07. Up 184% across the series, peaking at 6,194.

The player

Draft capital and athletic profile

Drafted2022, round 2, pick 63 by BUF
CollegeGeorgia
Age at draft22
Height5′11″
Weight199 lb
40-yard dash4.42s
Vertical33″
Broad jump124″

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game13.4
Week-to-week variation0.7
Boom rate22.2%
Bust rate27.8%
Games missed per season0
Correlation between his posted line and his actual score0.18

The record, season by season

2025 · BUF · 17 games

His best game was Week 8 against CAR — 33.6 PPR on 19 touches and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 40-9. His worst was Week 18 against NYJ at 1.5, on 2 touches, final score 35-8. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 9 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 17.3; in the 9 decided by more, 18.2. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 15.4 points per game. He scored 17.78, 10.7% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1BAL41-4021.255581344111.1%56%
2NYJ30-1026.51132113224%47%
3MIA31-2120.8331019108111.1%67%
4NO31-1922.5341822117118.2%73%
5NE20-234.9010154903.3%72%
6ATL14-248.7000178700%53%
8CAR40-933.60001921620%44%
9KC28-2113.511112711404%76%
10MIA13-3010.755241353012.8%50%
11TB44-3220.433661648110%66%
12HOU19-2321.933131711619.4%55%
13PIT26-718.7333332144013%61%
14CIN39-3411.12231188007.4%75%
15NE35-3131.123422107311.5%67%
16CLE23-2026.4121716117211.1%56%
17PHI12-138.71432074012.1%51%
18NYJ35-81.500021500%3%

Production

Receptions33
Targets40
Receiving yards291
Carries309
Rushing yards1,621
Touchdowns14
Points per game17.78
Yards per target7.28
Catch rate82.5%
Yards per carry5.25

Role

Snap share57.18%
Target share8.18%
Air-yards share0.55%
WOPR0.127
RACR-0.827

Efficiency

Average depth of target1.3
Yards after catch per reception8.2
Yards before catch per reception0.6
Total YAC272
Broken tackles3
Drop rate0.1%
Passer rating when targeted113.6
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game0.51
Rushing EPA per game0.33

Scoring position

Red-zone targets3
Red-zone target share3.6%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share50.4%
Goal-line carry share37.5%
Expected receiving TDs0.8
Actual receiving TDs1
Receiving TD luck0.2
Expected rushing TDs10.12

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:

Points per game6 of 49
Yards per target9 of 49
Target share30 of 49
Air-yards share11 of 49

Who else ate

The offense threw it 495 times. He took 8.35% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Khalil Shakir19.83%
Keon Coleman12.32%
Dawson Knox10.23%
Dalton Kincaid10.23%
James Cook 8.35%
Josh Palmer7.72%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Josh Allen164018.797.288.69%
Mitchell Trubisky101.50%

Blowouts against close games

5 of his 17 games were blowouts, 30.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 18.2 in those and 17.35 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2024 · BUF · 16 games

His best game was Week 2 against MIA — 28.5 PPR on 12 touches and a 5.6% target share, in a game that finished 31-10. His worst was Week 14 against LA at 4.9, on 8 touches, final score 42-44. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 15.8; in the 9 decided by more, 17.3. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 12.4 points per game. He scored 16.67, 37.7% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1ARI34-2813.333321971013%61%
2MIA31-1028.51117117835.6%47%
3JAX47-1018.745481139116.7%50%
4BAL10-355.811993903.7%56%
5HOU20-2317.923172082110.3%59%
7TEN34-109.2000123210%53%
8SEA31-1028.333221711129.4%55%
9MIA30-2711.956251044016.7%55%
10IND30-2015.5135198018.6%55%
11KC30-2119.7567920215.8%37%
13SF35-101911131410715.6%45%
14LA42-444.922962005.4%45%
15DET48-4226.311281410523.1%41%
16NE24-2127.6332611100211.1%36%
17NYJ40-1411.3000155310%46%
18NE16-238.8000102810%22%

Production

Receptions32
Targets38
Receiving yards258
Carries207
Rushing yards1,009
Touchdowns18
Points per game16.67
Yards per target6.79
Catch rate84.21%
Yards per carry4.87

Role

Snap share47.69%
Target share7.81%
Air-yards share1.22%
WOPR0.126
RACR2.106

Efficiency

Average depth of target0.9
Yards after catch per reception8.1
Yards before catch per reception-0.1
Total YAC260
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0.1%
Passer rating when targeted112.5
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game0.8
Rushing EPA per game0.66

Scoring position

Red-zone targets5
Red-zone target share6.9%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share46%
Goal-line carry share46.3%
Expected receiving TDs1.04
Actual receiving TDs2
Receiving TD luck0.96
Expected rushing TDs11.67

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:

Points per game11 of 46
Yards per target12 of 46
Target share31 of 46
Air-yards share5 of 46

Who else ate

The offense threw it 520 times. He took 7.68% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Khalil Shakir20.2%
Dalton Kincaid15.15%
Keon Coleman11.52%
Mack Hollins10.1%
Curtis Samuel9.29%
James Cook 7.68%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Josh Allen153817.196.798.33%
Mitchell Trubisky108.80%

Blowouts against close games

7 of his 16 games were blowouts, 45.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 17.26 in those and 15.81 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2023 · BUF · 17 games

His best game was Week 15 against DAL — 36.1 PPR on 28 touches and a 23.1% target share, in a game that finished 31-10. His worst was Week 16 against LAC at 5, on 20 touches, final score 24-22. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 12 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 10.8; in the 5 decided by more, 20.6. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 13.5 points per game. He scored 13.69, 0.2% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1NYJ16-2210.346171246015.4%59%
2LV38-1019.9443617123011.1%59%
3WAS37-313.22314159809.4%62%
4MIA48-2014.71148122914%40%
5JAX20-255.134255-4011.1%62%
6NYG14-97.1000147100%49%
7NE25-2919.23346135617.7%52%
8TB24-188.3116146702.6%67%
9CIN18-247.94419620012.5%55%
10DEN22-241222111210908%46%
11NYJ32-619.234291773113.8%46%
12PHI34-371667571643014.3%43%
14KC20-1725.155831058113.9%44%
15DAL31-1036.1234225179223.1%56%
16LAC24-225000207000%75%
17NE27-215.413-41648010.7%55%
18MIA21-148.234161336010.8%62%

Production

Receptions44
Targets54
Receiving yards445
Carries237
Rushing yards1,122
Touchdowns6
Points per game13.69
Yards per target8.24
Catch rate81.48%
Yards per carry4.73

Role

Snap share54.82%
Target share9.91%
Air-yards share2.94%
WOPR0.169
RACR2.673

Efficiency

Average depth of target2.5
Yards after catch per reception9
Yards before catch per reception1.1
Total YAC398
Broken tackles7
Drop rate0.1%
Passer rating when targeted125.7
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game0.96
Rushing EPA per game-0.43

Scoring position

Red-zone targets8
Red-zone target share10.8%
End-zone target share3.3%
Red-zone carry share31.4%
Goal-line carry share13.5%
Expected receiving TDs2.17
Actual receiving TDs3
Receiving TD luck0.83
Expected rushing TDs4.64

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:

Points per game19 of 49
Yards per target4 of 49
Target share23 of 49
Air-yards share2 of 49

Who else ate

The offense threw it 579 times. He took 9.91% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Stefon Diggs29.36%
Dalton Kincaid16.7%
Gabe Davis14.86%
James Cook 9.91%
Khalil Shakir8.26%
Dawson Knox6.61%

Blowouts against close games

5 of his 17 games were blowouts, 44.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 20.62 in those and 10.8 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2022 · BUF · 16 games

His best game was Week 16 against CHI — 17.8 PPR on 13 touches and a 8% target share, in a game that finished 35-13. His worst was Week 1 against LA at -1.8, on 1 touches, final score 31-10. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 4.8; in the 7 decided by more, 8.9. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 6.3 points per game. He scored 6.61, 2.5% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1LA31-10-1.80001200%5%
2TEN41-75.3010115302.6%26%
3MIA19-21845371308.8%12%
4BAL23-2000100002.9%3%
5PIT38-39.100043110%18%
6KC24-200.80002800%14%
8GB27-178.6114153504%25%
9NYJ17-205.32418415012.1%23%
10MIN30-332.200052200%17%
11CLE31-238.6010118604.2%25%
12DET28-253.8251424012.8%18%
13NE24-1016.566411464018.2%43%
14NYJ20-122.51194603.7%41%
15MIA32-2911.923553417.9%36%
16CHI35-1317.8129119918%41%
18NE35-237.122694506.5%56%

Production

Receptions21
Targets32
Receiving yards180
Carries89
Rushing yards507
Touchdowns3
Points per game6.61
Yards per target5.63
Catch rate65.63%
Yards per carry5.7

Role

Snap share25.19%
Target share5.73%
Air-yards share1.43%
WOPR0.096
RACR2.029

Efficiency

Average depth of target2.4
Yards after catch per reception6.3
Yards before catch per reception2.3
Total YAC132
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0.1%
Passer rating when targeted77.6
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game0.24
Rushing EPA per game0.41

Scoring position

Red-zone targets6
Red-zone target share6.1%
End-zone target share5.1%
Red-zone carry share17.9%
Expected receiving TDs1.26
Actual receiving TDs1
Receiving TD luck-0.26
Expected rushing TDs1.19

Who else ate

The offense threw it 574 times. He took 5.81% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Stefon Diggs27.95%
Gabe Davis16.88%
Isaiah McKenzie11.8%
Dawson Knox11.8%
Devin Singletary9.44%
James Cook 5.81%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 16 games were blowouts, 28.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.6 in those and 4.79 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

Ask the Coach about James Cook →
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