Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 9.51 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 178, usage worth 9.2.
25 years old · 3 seasons of experience · 2023 draft class
| SLEEPER | 213.6 |
| ESPN | 168.3 |
| UNDERDOG | 158.6 |
| CBS | 152 |
| FFA | 162 |
| Goes around | Round 15, pick 10 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR141 |
| Bye week | 13 |
| ADP standard deviation | 31.9 picks |
Our board has him at 125.9 points, 7.7 per game — 46.3 catches, 555 yards, 2.8 TDs. That is WR6, 159 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 5.3 points per game to a ceiling of 14.3, with the median at 7.7. Boom rate 86%, bust rate 31%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 178 on consensus and our board has him 159. We rank him 19 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
Las Vegas Raiders returns 2 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1, wr1, hc, oc. Kirk Cousins at quarterback, Klint Kubiak as head coach, Andrew Janocko calling it. The offense projects to 32.2 pass attempts a game at low confidence and 24.8 rushes.
In: Kirk Cousins (qb), Fernando Mendoza (qb2), Jalen Nailor (wr1), Malik Benson (wr5), Dareke Young (wr6), Philip Dorsett II (wr7), Mike Washington Jr (rb2), Chris Collier (rb4). Out: Geno Smith (qb), Jach Bech (wr2), Tyler Lockett (wr3), Raheem Mostert (rb2), Zamir White (rb3).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 14%, with a bear case of 12.8% and a bull case of 14.8% and a full range of 12.1% to 16.6%. That comes from 25 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Brock Bowers | 21% |
| Tre Tucker ← | 14% |
| Ashton Jeanty | 12.7% |
| Michael Mayer | 9.7% |
| Dont'e Thornton Jr. | 7.7% |
| Jack Bech | 7.4% |
What the offense looks like: If this offense can click, the top players in this offense will all have their values increase significantly. There is talent here: Bowers, Jeanty, Mendoza. But this WR corp is lacking, however Tucker, Nailor, Bech, and even Thornton Jr have a huge opportunity to step up.
Key additions: Drafted Fernando Mendoza 1 overall. Kirk Cousins signed in free agency on vet minimum deal. C Tyler Linderbaum landed HUGE deal coming over from Baltimore (top center in NFL). WR Jalen Nailor landed a 3 year deal & COULD be raiders WR1 IF no other veterans are brought in.
Key departures: QB Geno Smith was traded to the Jets.
Notes: Mendoza 1.01 franchise QB of the future. Raiders also signed Kirk Cousins & he is assumed week 1 starter. Mendoza may not play early half of season unless beats Cousins out in camp. Raiders spent big in free agency and O line should be better but still bad. Buy Bowers long-term. Monitor Mendoza development. Raiders will probably sign a veteran WR who could operate as WR1, either Jauan Jennings or Diggs or Tyreek Hill or Keenan Allen potentially. Tyreek Hill also an option. Mike Washington Jr will back up Ashton Jeanty. New HC Klint Kubiak former Seahawks OC should also boost offense creativity.
How the volume number was reached: New QB Kirk Cousins, avg 29.6 att/g over 2025,2024; Regressed 65% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 32.1 att/g; New OC Andrew Janocko — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Klint Kubiak.
25 historical comps for WRs age ~24, prior share 15.7%, same team, OC change, QB change. Distribution: median 13.5%, p25-p75 [10.4%, 15.5%], tails [8.7%, 19.8%]. Closest comps: Kalif Raymond 2021→2022 (DET: 14.0%→12.9%); Nelson Agholor 2021→2022 (NE: 16.2%→12.4%); Michael Gallup 2022→2023 (DAL: 17.1%→10.4%). Adjustment: flat from opportunity_breakout (volume must hold)
self-anchored 58% to own 15.7% role (3yr), 42% to comp median 13.5%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: LV rates 19.6 against a league average of 23, 3.4 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -5 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | -9.6 · harder |
| Weeks 12–17 | -3.6 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +3.6 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full Tre Tucker study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +43.1% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, WRs crash the following year 40% of the time (hold 60%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 40% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Moore | 2023 | 8.3 | 61% | -1.6% |
| Parris Campbell | 2022 | 8.8 | 60% | -39.3% |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 2021 | 7.9 | 56% | -37.3% |
| Chase Claypool | 2022 | 7 | 56% | -55.1% |
| Tank Dell | 2024 | 10 | 54% | -7.5% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 0 gained value, 4 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2023, round 3, pick 100 by LVR |
| College | Cincinnati |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 5′9″ |
| Weight | 182 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.4s |
| Vertical | 37.5″ |
| Broad jump | 124″ |
| Career PPR per game | 6.9 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.7 |
| Boom rate | 15.8% |
| Bust rate | 31.6% |
| Games missed per season | 0 |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.07 |
His best game was Week 3 against WAS — 40.9 PPR on 9 targets and a 33.3% target share, in a game that finished 24-41. His worst was Week 15 against PHI at 0, on 3 targets, final score 0-31. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 7; in the 10 decided by more, 11.3. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 9.2 points per game. He scored 9.51, 2.9% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | 20-13 | 13.4 | 2 | 3 | 54 | 1 | 9.1% | 90% |
| 2 | LAC | 9-20 | 4.9 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 0 | 18.6% | 91% |
| 3 | WAS | 24-41 | 40.9 | 8 | 9 | 145 | 3 | 33.3% | 94% |
| 4 | CHI | 24-25 | 4.2 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 10% | 98% |
| 5 | IND | 6-40 | 11.1 | 4 | 6 | 62 | 0 | 16.7% | 88% |
| 6 | TEN | 20-10 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 70 | 0 | 21.7% | 92% |
| 7 | KC | 0-31 | 8.3 | 5 | 6 | 33 | 0 | 35.3% | 89% |
| 9 | JAX | 29-30 | 6.8 | 3 | 4 | 38 | 0 | 10.5% | 97% |
| 10 | DEN | 7-10 | 5.5 | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 12% | 100% |
| 11 | DAL | 16-33 | 14.7 | 4 | 8 | 47 | 1 | 20.5% | 97% |
| 12 | CLE | 10-24 | 5.8 | 3 | 10 | 28 | 0 | 23.8% | 95% |
| 13 | LAC | 14-31 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 13.6% | 96% |
| 14 | DEN | 17-24 | 4.4 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 17.9% | 94% |
| 15 | PHI | 0-31 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12% | 93% |
| 16 | HOU | 21-23 | 9.4 | 4 | 5 | 43 | 0 | 22.7% | 100% |
| 17 | NYG | 10-34 | 9.9 | 5 | 6 | 49 | 0 | 21.4% | 100% |
| 18 | KC | 14-12 | 5.4 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 0 | 23.1% | 98% |
| Receptions | 57 |
| Targets | 92 |
| Receiving yards | 696 |
| Carries | 11 |
| Rushing yards | 51 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 9.51 |
| Yards per target | 7.57 |
| Catch rate | 61.96% |
| Yards per carry | 4.64 |
| Snap share | 94.82% |
| Target share | 18.95% |
| Air-yards share | 26.4% |
| WOPR | 0.469 |
| RACR | 1.238 |
| Average depth of target | 9.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 7.1 |
| Total YAC | 291 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 98.8 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.28 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.03 |
| Red-zone targets | 10 |
| Red-zone target share | 16.7% |
| End-zone target share | 8.7% |
| Red-zone carry share | 2.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.42 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.58 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.05 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 40 of 44 |
| Yards per target | 28 of 44 |
| Target share | 34 of 44 |
| Air-yards share | 33 of 44 |
The offense threw it 515 times. He took 18.66% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Tre Tucker ← | 18.66% |
| Brock Bowers | 17.44% |
| Ashton Jeanty | 14.81% |
| Michael Mayer | 10.14% |
| Jakobi Meyers | 9.94% |
| Tyler Lockett | 6.9% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 15 | 83 | 10.42 | 8.02 | 19.14% |
| Kenny Pickett | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12% |
| Aidan O'Connell | 1 | 6 | 5.4 | 5 | 23.1% |
7 of his 17 games were blowouts, 55.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 12.84 in those and 7.01 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 3 against CAR — 22.6 PPR on 9 targets and a 23.1% target share, in a game that finished 22-36. His worst was Week 6 against PIT at 0, on 2 targets, final score 13-32. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 12 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 7.8; in the 10 decided by more, 7.5. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 8.4 points per game. He scored 7.61, 9.9% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 2 against 0.88 expected, a gap of 1.1.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC | 10-22 | 4.2 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 9.4% | 78% |
| 2 | BAL | 26-23 | 3.3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 5.6% | 60% |
| 3 | CAR | 22-36 | 22.6 | 7 | 9 | 96 | 1 | 23.1% | 81% |
| 4 | CLE | 20-16 | 15.4 | 5 | 6 | 41 | 1 | 25% | 85% |
| 5 | DEN | 18-34 | 4.6 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 13.9% | 84% |
| 6 | PIT | 13-32 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5.4% | 95% |
| 7 | LA | 15-20 | 7.7 | 3 | 8 | 36 | 0 | 22.9% | 95% |
| 8 | KC | 20-27 | 5.3 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 11.1% | 91% |
| 9 | CIN | 24-41 | 2.5 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 18.8% | 92% |
| 11 | MIA | 19-34 | 6.5 | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 10.3% | 89% |
| 12 | DEN | 19-29 | 15.2 | 7 | 8 | 82 | 0 | 17.4% | 90% |
| 13 | KC | 17-19 | 13.9 | 1 | 1 | 58 | 1 | 2.9% | 97% |
| 14 | TB | 13-28 | 2.7 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 14.3% | 88% |
| 15 | ATL | 9-15 | 3.8 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 8.8% | 96% |
| 16 | JAX | 19-14 | 5.3 | 2 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 10.8% | 92% |
| 17 | NO | 25-10 | 10.9 | 2 | 8 | 24 | 1 | 22.9% | 90% |
| 18 | LAC | 20-34 | 5.4 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 11.8% | 80% |
| Receptions | 47 |
| Targets | 81 |
| Receiving yards | 539 |
| Carries | 9 |
| Rushing yards | 44 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 7.61 |
| Yards per target | 6.65 |
| Catch rate | 58.02% |
| Yards per carry | 4.89 |
| Snap share | 87.24% |
| Target share | 13.79% |
| Air-yards share | 22.28% |
| WOPR | 0.362 |
| RACR | 0.573 |
| Average depth of target | 12.7 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 7 |
| Total YAC | 208 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 85.4 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.72 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.16 |
| Red-zone targets | 5 |
| Red-zone target share | 7.9% |
| End-zone target share | 10% |
| Red-zone carry share | 5% |
| Goal-line carry share | 4.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.88 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.12 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.5 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 50 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 45 of 51 |
| Target share | 51 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 44 of 51 |
The offense threw it 634 times. He took 13.71% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Brock Bowers | 25.89% |
| Jakobi Meyers | 21.83% |
| Tre Tucker ← | 13.71% |
| Alexander Mattison | 8.12% |
| Ameer Abdullah | 7.95% |
| Michael Mayer | 5.41% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 9 | 49 | 9.19 | 7.12 | 15.96% |
| Aidan O'Connell | 7 | 29 | 6.11 | 5.93 | 11.71% |
| Desmond Ridder | 1 | 3 | 3.8 | 6 | 8.8% |
2 of his 17 games were blowouts, 1.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 1.25 in those and 7.81 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 15 against LAC — 20.7 PPR on 4 targets and a 11.8% target share, in a game that finished 63-21. His worst was Week 14 against MIN at 0, on 1 targets, final score 0-3. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 3.2; in the 6 decided by more, 8.3. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 4.5 points per game. He scored 5.52, 22.9% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | BUF | 10-38 | 3.4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.3% | 23% |
| 5 | GB | 17-13 | 1.6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.4% | 11% |
| 6 | NE | 21-17 | 8.1 | 2 | 2 | 57 | 0 | 6.5% | 31% |
| 7 | CHI | 12-30 | 3.8 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 6.7% | 49% |
| 9 | NYG | 30-6 | 7.6 | 2 | 3 | 52 | 0 | 12.5% | 47% |
| 10 | NYJ | 16-12 | 0.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 23% |
| 11 | MIA | 13-20 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 36 | 0 | 18.4% | 39% |
| 12 | KC | 17-31 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.1% | 22% |
| 14 | MIN | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.4% | 6% |
| 15 | LAC | 63-21 | 20.7 | 3 | 4 | 59 | 2 | 11.8% | 45% |
| 16 | KC | 20-14 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 5.3% | 40% |
| 17 | IND | 20-23 | 5.6 | 2 | 5 | 36 | 0 | 10.9% | 69% |
| 18 | DEN | 27-14 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 79 | 0 | 18.5% | 64% |
| Receptions | 19 |
| Targets | 34 |
| Receiving yards | 331 |
| Carries | 10 |
| Rushing yards | 77 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 5.52 |
| Yards per target | 9.74 |
| Catch rate | 55.88% |
| Yards per carry | 7.7 |
| Snap share | 36.08% |
| Target share | 8.06% |
| Air-yards share | 17.69% |
| WOPR | 0.245 |
| RACR | 0.387 |
| Average depth of target | 18.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 1.5 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 15.9 |
| Total YAC | 28 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 84.3 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.48 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.1 |
| Red-zone targets | 4 |
| Red-zone target share | 5.1% |
| End-zone target share | 5.9% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.69 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.31 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.05 |
The offense threw it 557 times. He took 6.4% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Davante Adams | 32.96% |
| Jakobi Meyers | 19.96% |
| Josh Jacobs | 10.17% |
| Michael Mayer | 7.53% |
| Hunter Renfrow | 6.97% |
| Tre Tucker ← | 6.4% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan O'Connell | 9 | 27 | 6.1 | 9.56 | 9.32% |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 3 | 4 | 4.37 | 14.25 | 4.73% |
| Brian Hoyer | 1 | 3 | 3.8 | 5.33 | 6.7% |
4 of his 13 games were blowouts, 49.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8.88 in those and 3.19 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
Ask the Coach about Tre Tucker →