Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 9.83 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 146.6, usage worth 9.1.
25 years old · 3 seasons of experience · 2023 draft class
| SLEEPER | 149.1 |
| ESPN | 167.7 |
| YAHOO | 128.6 |
| UNDERDOG | 149 |
| CBS | 141 |
| FFA | 135 |
| Goes around | Round 13, pick 3 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | TE19 |
| Bye week | 7 |
| ADP standard deviation | 16.4 picks |
Our board has him at 127.7 points, 8.4 per game — 51.4 catches, 541 yards, 3.7 TDs. That is TE4, 133 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 3.6 points per game to a ceiling of 12.1, with the median at 8.4. Boom rate 44%, bust rate 57%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 146.6 on consensus and our board has him 133. We rank him 13.6 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
the pure safe-floor, zero-ceiling archetype for the whole position this year — stuck behind four legitimate, established WR options on his own roster, no realistic target-share or touchdown ceiling regardless of game flow.
watch · medium conviction · 2026-08Jacksonville Jaguars returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing rb1. Trevor Lawrence at quarterback, Liam Coen as head coach, Grant Udinski calling it. The offense projects to 33.2 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 28.1 rushes.
In: CJ Williams (wr5), Josh Cameron (wr6), Bhaysul Tuten (rb1), Chris Rodriguez Jr. (rb2), DeeJay dallas (rb4), Nate Boerkircher (te2). Out: Travis Etienne Jr (rb1), Bhayshul Tuten (rb2), Johnny Mundt (te2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 11%, with a bear case of 9.5% and a bull case of 12.2% and a full range of 8.1% to 13.8%. That comes from 25 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Jakobi Meyers | 19.9% |
| Brian Thomas Jr | 18.8% |
| Parker Washington | 14.5% |
| Brenton Strange ← | 11% |
| Nate Boerkircher | 8.8% |
| Josh Cameron | 6.8% |
Key additions: Chris Rodriguez Jr. signed 2 year deal (previously with commanders). Nate Boerkircher TE 2nd round. 2 6th round WR Josh Cameron & CJ Williams.
Key departures: Travis Etienne Jr. left Jacksonville for Saints in free agency.
Notes: Travis Etienne Jr. has left the Jaguars in free agency for the Saints. Opening door for Bhayshul Tuten to operate as team lead back. Jaguars sign Chris Rodriguez Jr. to 2 year deal from Commanders. Jaguars draft Nate Boerkircher (TE) in 2nd round and should cause competition for Brenton Strange. Also drafted Josh Cameron & CJ Williams both WR in the 6th round. Travis Hunter is expected to play more CB than WR in 2026, but we will need confirmation through camp (very bad for dynasty value if true). Brian Thomas Jr looks to return to his rookie form as a true WR1 but Jakobi Meyers may operate as the teams 1A. Parker Washington has potential to be massive contributor in 2026 if BTJ struggles continue.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Trevor Lawrence returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (33.1 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.2 att/g.
25 historical comps for TEs age ~24, prior share 14.1%, same team, OC continuity. Distribution: median 13.1%, p25-p75 [9.2%, 15.0%], tails [6.1%, 18.5%]. Closest comps: Chigoziem Okonkwo 2023→2024 (TEN: 15.0%→14.1%); Logan Thomas 2023→2024 (WAS: 14.0%→0.0%); Isaiah Likely 2022→2023 (BAL: 14.8%→10.9%). Adjustment: -5% from td_luck_breakout (TD regression risk)
self-anchored 45% to own 14.1% role (2yr), 55% to comp median 13.1%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: JAX rates 22.4 against a league average of 23, 0.6 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +3.5 · easier |
| Weeks 1–6 | -8.7 · harder |
| Weeks 12–17 | +11.3 · easier |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +8.4 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full Brenton Strange study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +32.5% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, TEs crash the following year 47% of the time (hold 53%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 47% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.3 elite seasons and 2.3 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Freiermuth | 2023 | 7 | 72% | -8.2% |
| Mike Gesicki | 2021 | 9.7 | 70% | -24.7% |
| Irv Smith | 2022 | 6.9 | 67% | -17.9% |
| Dawson Knox | 2022 | 9 | 66% | -18.1% |
| Trey McBride | 2023 | 10.7 | 66% | +29% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 4 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2023, round 2, pick 61 by JAX |
| College | Penn St. |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 6′4″ |
| Weight | 253 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.7s |
| Vertical | 36″ |
| Broad jump | 124″ |
| 3-cone | 7.25s |
| Shuttle | 4.46s |
| Career PPR per game | 7.1 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.8 |
| Boom rate | 33.3% |
| Bust rate | 41.7% |
| Games missed per season | 0.7 |
| Injury history | Foot, Hip |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.25 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 18 against TEN — 17.2 PPR on 6 targets and a 19.4% target share, in a game that finished 41-7. His worst was Week 5 against KC at 3.2, on 1 targets, final score 31-28. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 8.9; in the 6 decided by more, 10.8. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 9.1 points per game. He scored 9.83, 2.5% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAR | 26-10 | 9.9 | 4 | 4 | 59 | 0 | 13.8% | 79% |
| 2 | CIN | 27-31 | 4.7 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 12.2% | 90% |
| 3 | HOU | 17-10 | 12.1 | 6 | 7 | 61 | 0 | 18.4% | 83% |
| 4 | SF | 26-21 | 10.5 | 6 | 7 | 45 | 0 | 23.3% | 74% |
| 5 | KC | 31-28 | 3.2 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 4% | 38% |
| 12 | ARI | 27-24 | 14.3 | 5 | 5 | 93 | 0 | 16.7% | 71% |
| 13 | TEN | 25-3 | 13.5 | 3 | 4 | 45 | 1 | 16% | 84% |
| 14 | IND | 36-19 | 5.7 | 3 | 6 | 27 | 0 | 19.4% | 80% |
| 15 | NYJ | 48-20 | 3.6 | 1 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 10.7% | 82% |
| 16 | DEN | 34-20 | 14.9 | 5 | 7 | 39 | 1 | 20% | 74% |
| 17 | IND | 23-17 | 8.4 | 3 | 5 | 54 | 0 | 13.5% | 81% |
| 18 | TEN | 41-7 | 17.2 | 6 | 6 | 52 | 1 | 19.4% | 62% |
| Receptions | 46 |
| Targets | 60 |
| Receiving yards | 540 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 9.83 |
| Yards per target | 9 |
| Catch rate | 76.67% |
| Snap share | 74.83% |
| Target share | 15.62% |
| Air-yards share | 12.32% |
| WOPR | 0.32 |
| RACR | 1.247 |
| Average depth of target | 6.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6.4 |
| Total YAC | 247 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 120.1 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.61 |
| Red-zone targets | 11 |
| Red-zone target share | 12% |
| End-zone target share | 5.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.64 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.64 |
The offense threw it 563 times. He took 11.95% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Parker Washington | 18.92% |
| Brian Thomas | 18.13% |
| Jakobi Meyers | 12.15% |
| Brenton Strange ← | 11.95% |
| Travis Etienne | 10.36% |
| Dyami Brown | 7.37% |
4 of his 12 games were blowouts, 33.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 10 in those and 8.87 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 15 against NYJ — 18.3 PPR on 12 targets and a 27.9% target share, in a game that finished 25-32. His worst was Week 17 against TEN at 0, on 1 targets, final score 20-13. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 7.1; in the 3 decided by more, 4.3. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 6.7 points per game. He scored 6.51, 2.9% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | CLE | 13-18 | 9.5 | 3 | 6 | 65 | 0 | 22.2% | 68% |
| 3 | BUF | 10-47 | 9.2 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 11.4% | 70% |
| 4 | HOU | 20-24 | 4.9 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 9.4% | 72% |
| 5 | IND | 37-34 | 12.4 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 1 | 11.8% | 84% |
| 6 | CHI | 16-35 | 2.1 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 5.7% | 37% |
| 8 | GB | 27-30 | 10.9 | 5 | 5 | 59 | 0 | 16.7% | 39% |
| 10 | MIN | 7-12 | 4.5 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 14.3% | 41% |
| 11 | DET | 6-52 | 1.6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3.6% | 50% |
| 13 | HOU | 20-23 | 2.4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 4.8% | 41% |
| 14 | TEN | 10-6 | 3.1 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 3.3% | 44% |
| 15 | NYJ | 25-32 | 18.3 | 11 | 12 | 73 | 0 | 27.9% | 82% |
| 16 | LV | 14-19 | 2.2 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 11.4% | 51% |
| 17 | TEN | 20-13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.8% | 72% |
| 18 | IND | 23-26 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 60 | 0 | 12.9% | 72% |
| Receptions | 40 |
| Targets | 53 |
| Receiving yards | 411 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 6.51 |
| Yards per target | 7.75 |
| Catch rate | 75.47% |
| Snap share | 58.79% |
| Target share | 11.44% |
| Air-yards share | 8.44% |
| WOPR | 0.231 |
| RACR | 1.206 |
| Average depth of target | 6.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.6 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 5.7 |
| Total YAC | 183 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 109.9 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.35 |
| Red-zone targets | 6 |
| Red-zone target share | 9.5% |
| End-zone target share | 14.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.88 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.12 |
The offense threw it 546 times. He took 10.15% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Brian Thomas | 25.48% |
| Evan Engram | 12.26% |
| Brenton Strange ← | 10.15% |
| Travis Etienne | 9.96% |
| Parker Washington | 9.77% |
| Christian Kirk | 9% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 8 | 28 | 5.26 | 7.89 | 10.38% |
| Trevor Lawrence | 6 | 25 | 8.17 | 7.6 | 12.87% |
3 of his 14 games were blowouts, 14.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4.3 in those and 7.11 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 6 against IND — 10.7 PPR on 3 targets and a 10.7% target share, in a game that finished 37-20. His worst was Week 18 against TEN at 0, on 0 targets, final score 20-28. Across 7 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 6 times.
His usage that season was worth 3.1 points per game. He scored 2.07, 7.1% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | HOU | 17-37 | 2.7 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 5% | 29% |
| 4 | ATL | 23-7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 36% |
| 5 | BUF | 25-20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.7% | 27% |
| 6 | IND | 37-20 | 10.7 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 1 | 10.7% | 53% |
| 10 | SF | 3-34 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.2% | 25% |
| 17 | CAR | 26-0 | 1.1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8.7% | 48% |
| 18 | TEN | 20-28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 17% |
| Receptions | 5 |
| Targets | 9 |
| Receiving yards | 35 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 2.07 |
| Yards per target | 3.89 |
| Catch rate | 55.56% |
| Snap share | 33.57% |
| Target share | 4.33% |
| Air-yards share | 4.27% |
| WOPR | 0.094 |
| RACR | 0.653 |
| Average depth of target | 7.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.6 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 1.4 |
| Total YAC | 28 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 101.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.07 |
| Red-zone targets | 4 |
| Red-zone target share | 6% |
| End-zone target share | 2.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.97 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.03 |
The offense threw it 619 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Evan Engram | 23.56% |
| Calvin Ridley | 22.41% |
| Christian Kirk | 14% |
| Travis Etienne | 12.03% |
| Zay Jones | 10.54% |
| Jamal Agnew | 3.46% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 6 | 7 | 2.23 | 4.86 | 3.6% |
| C.J. Beathard | 1 | 2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 8.7% |
4 of his 7 games were blowouts, 100% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3.62 in those and 0 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
Ask the Coach about Brenton Strange →