Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 21.81 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 2.3, usage worth 20.3.
24 years old · 3 seasons of experience · 2023 draft class
| SLEEPER | 2.9 |
| ESPN | 2.6 |
| YAHOO | 1.8 |
| UNDERDOG | 2 |
| CBS | 1.9 |
| FFA | 2 |
| Goes around | Round 1, pick 2 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | RB2 |
| Bye week | 11 |
| ADP standard deviation | 0.5 picks |
Our board has him at 379 points, 23.7 per game — 1,504 rushing yards, 10.4 rushing TDs, 73.7 catches. That is RB1, 2 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 16.9 points per game to a ceiling of 33, with the median at 23.7. Boom rate 39%, bust rate 29%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 2.3 on consensus and our board has him 2. Those agree, so there is no market disagreement to exploit. The question is whether you want the profile, not whether it is mispriced.
never missed a game outside one meaningless snap; Allgeier's departure (he was out-touching Bijan inside the 10 last year) could hand Bijan the full goal-line role on top of already being featured everywhere else.
buy · high conviction · 2026-08Atlanta Falcons returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing hc, oc. Michael Penix Jr at quarterback, Kevin Stefanski as head coach, Tommy Rees calling it. The offense projects to 32.8 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 27.2 rushes.
In: Tua Tagovailoa (qb2), Olamide Zaccheaus (wr2), Zachariah Branch (wr3), Jahan Dotson (wr4), Brian Robinson Jr (rb2), Tyler Goodson (rb3), Carter Nathan (rb4), Austin Hooper (te2). Out: Kirk Cousins (qb2), Darnell Mooney (wr2), David Sills V (wr4), Ray-Ray McCloud III (wr5), Dylan Drummond (wr6), Khadarel Hodge (wr7), Tyler Allgeier (rb2), Nathan Carter (rb3), Charlie Woerner (te2).
The projected carry split across the offense:
| Bijan Robinson ← | 65.8% |
| Brian Robinson Jr | 24% |
| Tyler Goodson | 6.9% |
| Carter Nathan | 3.3% |
What the offense looks like: Bijan Robinson has been able to produce redardless of poor QB play in ATL. Drake London has had flashes & the talent is clearly there, but needs better QB play. Perhaps Penix Jr fully recovers from 2nd ACL tear & proves he is the franchise QB. OR there is a SMALL chance Tua turns his career around and can elevate this offense. Unlikely. Despite what most fans think, the falcons have not committed to a starting QB, there is a decent chance their franchise QB is neither Penix or Tua.
Key additions: Tua Tagovailoa signed on 1 year veteran minumum deal. WR Jahan Dotson 2 year $15M deal. TE Austin Hooper 1 year deal to back up Pitts. WR Olamide Zaccheaus returns to ATL. OL Jawaan Taylor signed 1 year deal. Zachariah Branch WR Georgia 3rd Round draft pick.
Key departures: Drew Dalman (starting Center) left to Chicago Bears & RT Kaleb McGary retired aftr missing entire 2025 season. Elijah Wilkinson Starting RT left in free agency. Kirk Cousins left to Las Vegas. Tyler Allgeier left to Arizona. WR Darnell Mooney released after regression & heads to NY Giants.
Notes: Falcons signed Tua Tagovailoa after release from Dolphins. Penix may be ready week 1 but possible he is no longer the starter. This will be determined in camp. New HC: Kevin Stefanski from Browns. Tommy Rees is new OC. Followed Stefanski from Cleveland. Bijan & London are core offensive players. Pitts wants long term exension, but was franchise tagged (could be traded). Branch round 3 Georgia WR adds speed & could produce early. Brian Robinson Jr is a valuable handcuff for Bijan Robinson but shouldn't have stand alone value. London clear WR1, Zaccheaus returns in free agency. Jahan Dotson (former 1st round pick) added in free agency. Zachariah Branch could see large volume as a rookie if develops quickly. QB play may still hold team back. Olamide Zaccheaus is a player that should be rostered in all leagues as a real sleeper. Highly productive player in Chicago that COULD pop early if Branch is a slow bloomer & Dotson is a nothing burger.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Michael Penix Jr returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (32.1 att/g); Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 32.8 att/g; New OC Tommy Rees — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Kevin Stefanski.
| Projected carry share | 65.8% |
| Projected carries per game | 14.7 |
| Projected carries, full season | 250 |
| Last season, carries per game | 16.9 |
That is a reduction of 2.2 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 27.2 rushing attempts a game.
Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.
Offensive environment: ATL rates 21.5 against a league average of 23, 1.5 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +0.2 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | -1.3 · neutral |
| Weeks 12–17 | -2.1 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +3.6 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full Bijan Robinson study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +16.1% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 2021 | 18.1 | 53% | -14.7% |
| Austin Ekeler | 2022 | 21.9 | 53% | -16.1% |
| Christian McCaffrey | 2022 | 21 | 47% | +40.4% |
| De'Von Achane | 2024 | 17.6 | 46% | +24.9% |
| Austin Ekeler | 2021 | 21.5 | 45% | 0% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 2 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2023, round 1, pick 8 by ATL |
| College | Texas |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| Height | 5′11″ |
| Weight | 215 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.46s |
| Vertical | 37″ |
| Broad jump | 124″ |
| Career PPR per game | 19.1 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.5 |
| Boom rate | 23.8% |
| Bust rate | 16.7% |
| Games missed per season | 0 |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.21 |
His best game was Week 17 against LA — 39.9 PPR on 30 touches and a 40% target share, in a game that finished 27-24. His worst was Week 8 against MIA at 5.8, on 12 touches, final score 10-34. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 9 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 24.8; in the 7 decided by more, 17.5. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 20.3 points per game. He scored 21.81, 7.7% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | 20-23 | 24.4 | 6 | 7 | 100 | 12 | 24 | 1 | 16.7% | 83% |
| 2 | MIN | 22-6 | 19.8 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 22 | 143 | 0 | 23.8% | 65% |
| 3 | CAR | 0-30 | 16.1 | 5 | 6 | 39 | 13 | 72 | 0 | 14.6% | 80% |
| 4 | WAS | 34-27 | 28.1 | 4 | 5 | 106 | 17 | 75 | 1 | 19.2% | 69% |
| 6 | BUF | 24-14 | 35.8 | 6 | 8 | 68 | 19 | 170 | 1 | 25.8% | 74% |
| 7 | SF | 10-20 | 21.2 | 6 | 8 | 52 | 14 | 40 | 1 | 22.2% | 88% |
| 8 | MIA | 10-34 | 5.8 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 9 | 25 | 0 | 10% | 60% |
| 9 | NE | 23-24 | 17.6 | 8 | 10 | 50 | 12 | 46 | 0 | 29.4% | 96% |
| 10 | IND | 25-31 | 10.8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 84 | 0 | 8% | 86% |
| 11 | CAR | 27-30 | 30.3 | 4 | 5 | 39 | 23 | 104 | 2 | 17.2% | 85% |
| 12 | NO | 24-10 | 14.7 | 2 | 2 | 37 | 14 | 70 | 0 | 10% | 66% |
| 13 | NYJ | 24-27 | 30.3 | 5 | 7 | 51 | 23 | 142 | 1 | 22.6% | 87% |
| 14 | SEA | 9-37 | 9.4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 86 | 0 | 7.1% | 67% |
| 15 | TB | 29-28 | 29.5 | 8 | 11 | 82 | 19 | 93 | 1 | 26.8% | 90% |
| 16 | ARI | 26-19 | 29.8 | 7 | 11 | 92 | 16 | 76 | 1 | 32.4% | 70% |
| 17 | LA | 27-24 | 39.9 | 5 | 8 | 34 | 22 | 195 | 2 | 40% | 79% |
| 18 | NO | 19-17 | 7.3 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 15 | 33 | 0 | 10% | 84% |
| Receptions | 79 |
| Targets | 103 |
| Receiving yards | 820 |
| Carries | 287 |
| Rushing yards | 1,478 |
| Touchdowns | 11 |
| Points per game | 21.81 |
| Yards per target | 7.96 |
| Catch rate | 76.7% |
| Yards per carry | 5.15 |
| Snap share | 78.18% |
| Target share | 19.75% |
| Air-yards share | 2.1% |
| WOPR | 0.312 |
| RACR | 5.968 |
| Average depth of target | 0.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 10.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -0.5 |
| Total YAC | 857 |
| Broken tackles | 10 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 108.1 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.56 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.72 |
| Red-zone targets | 13 |
| Red-zone target share | 21.3% |
| End-zone target share | 4.3% |
| Red-zone carry share | 49.3% |
| Goal-line carry share | 43.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.72 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.28 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 5.7 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 2 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 2 of 49 |
| Target share | 2 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 3 of 49 |
The offense threw it 545 times. He took 19.88% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Kyle Pitts | 22.78% |
| Drake London | 21.62% |
| Bijan Robinson ← | 19.88% |
| Darnell Mooney | 13.9% |
| David Sills | 6.95% |
| Tyler Allgeier | 3.09% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Penix | 9 | 56 | 22.68 | 8.63 | 19.66% |
| Kirk Cousins | 8 | 47 | 20.84 | 7.17 | 19.86% |
3 of his 17 games were blowouts, 8.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 10.43 in those and 24.8 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 18 against CAR — 31.3 PPR on 33 touches and a 13.5% target share, in a game that finished 38-44. His worst was Week 11 against DEN at 10.3, on 16 touches, final score 6-38. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 10 times and came in under 8 points 0 times. In the 12 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 19.9; in the 5 decided by more, 20.7. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 18.1 points per game. He scored 20.1, 11.1% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PIT | 10-18 | 16.1 | 5 | 5 | 43 | 18 | 68 | 0 | 21.7% | 89% |
| 2 | PHI | 22-21 | 16.2 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 14 | 97 | 0 | 17.2% | 75% |
| 3 | KC | 17-22 | 13.2 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 16 | 31 | 1 | 7.4% | 82% |
| 4 | NO | 26-24 | 11.4 | 4 | 4 | 46 | 7 | 28 | 0 | 11.8% | 64% |
| 5 | TB | 36-30 | 10.7 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 12 | 61 | 0 | 5.6% | 67% |
| 6 | CAR | 38-20 | 25.5 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 95 | 2 | 13.8% | 56% |
| 7 | SEA | 14-34 | 23.3 | 3 | 5 | 40 | 21 | 103 | 1 | 13.9% | 68% |
| 8 | TB | 31-26 | 23.6 | 7 | 7 | 43 | 13 | 63 | 1 | 25% | 68% |
| 9 | DAL | 27-21 | 21.5 | 7 | 7 | 59 | 19 | 86 | 0 | 29.2% | 74% |
| 10 | NO | 17-20 | 29.4 | 3 | 4 | 28 | 20 | 116 | 2 | 10.8% | 78% |
| 11 | DEN | 6-38 | 10.3 | 4 | 4 | 28 | 12 | 35 | 0 | 13.8% | 71% |
| 13 | LAC | 13-17 | 25.5 | 6 | 6 | 33 | 26 | 102 | 1 | 15.8% | 75% |
| 14 | MIN | 21-42 | 20.1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 22 | 92 | 1 | 5.4% | 85% |
| 15 | LV | 15-9 | 14.5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 22 | 125 | 0 | 12.5% | 76% |
| 16 | NYG | 34-7 | 24.3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 22 | 94 | 2 | 7.7% | 75% |
| 17 | WAS | 24-30 | 24.8 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 90 | 2 | 14.3% | 91% |
| 18 | CAR | 38-44 | 31.3 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 28 | 170 | 2 | 13.5% | 87% |
| Receptions | 61 |
| Targets | 72 |
| Receiving yards | 431 |
| Carries | 304 |
| Rushing yards | 1,456 |
| Touchdowns | 15 |
| Points per game | 20.1 |
| Yards per target | 5.99 |
| Catch rate | 84.72% |
| Yards per carry | 4.79 |
| Snap share | 75.35% |
| Target share | 14.08% |
| Air-yards share | -1.44% |
| WOPR | 0.201 |
| RACR | -2.161 |
| Average depth of target | -0.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 8.7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -1.6 |
| Total YAC | 531 |
| Broken tackles | 5 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 96.2 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.45 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 1.05 |
| Red-zone targets | 7 |
| Red-zone target share | 11.5% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 67.8% |
| Goal-line carry share | 66.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.16 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.16 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 10.13 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 3 of 46 |
| Yards per target | 23 of 46 |
| Target share | 4 of 46 |
| Air-yards share | 32 of 46 |
The offense threw it 559 times. He took 13.36% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Drake London | 29.31% |
| Darnell Mooney | 19.67% |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 16.14% |
| Kyle Pitts | 13.73% |
| Bijan Robinson ← | 13.36% |
| Tyler Allgeier | 2.41% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 14 | 60 | 18.66 | 6.85 | 14.56% |
| Michael Penix | 3 | 12 | 26.8 | 1.67 | 11.83% |
5 of his 17 games were blowouts, 30.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 20.7 in those and 19.85 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 12 against NO — 27.3 PPR on 22 touches and a 30% target share, in a game that finished 24-15. His worst was Week 7 against TB at 0.3, on 1 touches, final score 16-13. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 11.3; in the 7 decided by more, 19. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 15.1 points per game. He scored 14.49, 4% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 2 against 3.24 expected, a gap of -1.2.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAR | 24-10 | 20.3 | 6 | 6 | 27 | 10 | 56 | 1 | 33.3% | 63% |
| 2 | GB | 25-24 | 21.2 | 4 | 5 | 48 | 19 | 124 | 0 | 16.7% | 72% |
| 3 | DET | 6-20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 10 | 33 | 0 | 15.8% | 81% |
| 4 | JAX | 7-23 | 18.7 | 5 | 5 | 32 | 14 | 105 | 0 | 16.7% | 76% |
| 5 | HOU | 21-19 | 11.8 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 14 | 46 | 1 | 5.3% | 61% |
| 6 | WAS | 16-24 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 43 | 13 | 37 | 0 | 18.2% | 77% |
| 7 | TB | 16-13 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 17% |
| 8 | TEN | 23-28 | 12.2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 62 | 1 | 15.2% | 74% |
| 9 | MIN | 28-31 | 5.9 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 51 | 0 | 11.8% | 61% |
| 10 | ARI | 23-25 | 17.6 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 22 | 95 | 1 | 10.5% | 75% |
| 12 | NO | 24-15 | 27.3 | 3 | 6 | 32 | 16 | 91 | 2 | 30% | 63% |
| 13 | NYJ | 13-8 | 10.9 | 3 | 5 | 26 | 18 | 53 | 0 | 20% | 75% |
| 14 | TB | 25-29 | 19.8 | 5 | 7 | 54 | 10 | 34 | 1 | 17.9% | 78% |
| 15 | CAR | 7-9 | 0.4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 15.8% | 58% |
| 16 | IND | 29-10 | 19.2 | 7 | 10 | 50 | 12 | 72 | 0 | 31.3% | 75% |
| 17 | CHI | 17-37 | 11.6 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 75 | 0 | 12.5% | 76% |
| 18 | NO | 17-48 | 26.1 | 7 | 8 | 103 | 11 | 28 | 1 | 23.5% | 74% |
| Receptions | 58 |
| Targets | 86 |
| Receiving yards | 487 |
| Carries | 214 |
| Rushing yards | 976 |
| Touchdowns | 8 |
| Points per game | 14.49 |
| Yards per target | 5.66 |
| Catch rate | 67.44% |
| Yards per carry | 4.56 |
| Snap share | 68% |
| Target share | 17.32% |
| Air-yards share | -0.91% |
| WOPR | 0.254 |
| RACR | 0.886 |
| Average depth of target | 0.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 8.9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -0.6 |
| Total YAC | 519 |
| Broken tackles | 10 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 82.8 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.76 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -1.57 |
| Red-zone targets | 12 |
| Red-zone target share | 21.1% |
| End-zone target share | 10.5% |
| Red-zone carry share | 28.8% |
| Goal-line carry share | 23.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.24 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.24 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 2.88 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 17 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 17 of 49 |
| Target share | 3 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 30 of 49 |
The offense threw it 530 times. He took 17.06% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Drake London | 21.83% |
| Kyle Pitts | 17.86% |
| Bijan Robinson ← | 17.06% |
| Jonnu Smith | 13.89% |
| Mack Hollins | 5.95% |
| Van Jefferson | 5.56% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Ridder | 12 | 61 | 14.98 | 6.67 | 17.77% |
| Taylor Heinicke | 5 | 25 | 13.3 | 3.2 | 16.26% |
3 of his 17 games were blowouts, 23.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 18.97 in those and 11.31 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
Ask the Coach about Bijan Robinson →