Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 6.86 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 189.6, usage worth 6.5.
25 years old · 2 seasons of experience · 2024 draft class
| SLEEPER | 229.7 |
| ESPN | 170.1 |
| UNDERDOG | 173.9 |
| CBS | 169 |
| FFA | 212 |
| Goes around | Round 16, pick 10 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR147 |
| Bye week | 6 |
| ADP standard deviation | 34.7 picks |
Our board has him at 100.6 points, 6.1 per game — 40.8 catches, 336 yards, 2.5 TDs. That is WR6, 203 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 5.1 points per game to a ceiling of 11.4, with the median at 6.1. Boom rate 87%, bust rate 16%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 189.6 on consensus and our board has him 203. We rank him 13.4 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.
Miami Dolphins returns 1 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1, wr1, te1, hc, oc. Malik Willis at quarterback, Jeff Hafley as head coach, Bobby Slowik calling it. The offense projects to 30 pass attempts a game at low confidence and 26.1 rushes.
In: Malik Willis (qb), Caleb Douglas (wr1), Chris Bell (wr2), Jalen Tolbert (wr4), Tutu Atwell (wr5), Kevin Coleman Jr. (wr6), Terrace Marshall Jr. (wr7), Donovan Edwards (rb4), Will Kacmarek (te2). Out: Tua Tagovailoa (qb), Tyreek Hill (wr1), Jaylen Waddle (wr2), Theo Wease Jr. (wr4), Darren Waller (te1).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 9.2%, with a bear case of 6.6% and a bull case of 12% and a full range of 5.5% to 13.7%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| De'Von Achane | 15% |
| Greg Dulcich | 14% |
| Tutu Atwell | 10.4% |
| Caleb Douglas | 9.3% |
| Malik Washington ← | 9.2% |
| Chris Bell | 9.1% |
Key additions: QB Malik Willis signed to 3 year deal (was with Green Bay), RG Kadyn Proctor RD 1 RG, WR Caleb Douglas 3rd round draft pick, WR Chris Bell 3rd round draft pick, signed WR Jalen Tolbert, signed WR Tutu Atwell, signed WR Terrace Marshall Jr
Key departures: Tua Tagovailoa was released, Tyreek Hill was released, WR Jaylen Waddle was traded, and TE Darren Waller remains a free agent.
Notes: Dolphins sign Malik Willis in free agency to 3 year deal. Mobile QB with high fantasy upside. Offense skill positions (other than Achance) now worst in NFL. Unsure who starting WR will be. Dolphins drafted Caleb Douglas & Chris Bell (both have very good potential). Malik Washington is not good, Tutu Atwell unlikely to be highly productive, Terrace Marshall & Turpin also signed. Both are also not good. Greg Dulcich does have potential if Willis can get the offense working De'Von Achane landed HUGE contract for 4 years 64 million keeping him in Miami through 2030.
How the volume number was reached: New QB Malik Willis, avg 8.9 att/g over 2025,2024; Regressed 65% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 30 att/g; New OC Bobby Slowik — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Jeff Hafley.
29 historical comps for WRs age ~23, prior share 12.8%, same team, OC change, QB change. Distribution: median 6.8%, p25-p75 [2.1%, 12.5%], tails [0.0%, 15.6%]. Closest comps: Hunter Renfrow 2023→2024 (LV: 13.1%→0.0%); Devin Duvernay 2022→2023 (BAL: 11.4%→6.5%); Jauan Jennings 2023→2024 (SF: 11.1%→25.2%). Adjustment: +4% from hidden_breakout (skill jumped, production setup)
self-anchored 45% to own 12.8% role (2yr), 55% to comp median 6.8%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: MIA rates 19.5 against a league average of 23, 3.5 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -3 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | -4.8 · harder |
| Weeks 12–17 | -5.1 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -13.9 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +44.9% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, WRs crash the following year 40% of the time (hold 60%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 40% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick Bourne | 2021 | 10.6 | 49% | -21.6% |
| Xavier Gipson | 2023 | 3.7 | 48% | -4.9% |
| Rashid Shaheed | 2024 | 13.6 | 47% | +5.8% |
| Greg Dortch | 2022 | 7.2 | 46% | -0.8% |
| Devin Duvernay | 2022 | 8.3 | 44% | -32.3% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 3 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2024, round 6, pick 184 by MIA |
| College | Virginia |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| Height | 5′9″ |
| Weight | 191 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.47s |
| Vertical | 42.5″ |
| Broad jump | 126″ |
| Career PPR per game | 5.9 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.6 |
| Boom rate | 20% |
| Bust rate | 24% |
| Games missed per season | 1.5 |
| Injury history | Quadricep |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.01 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 8 against ATL — 13.6 PPR on 5 targets and a 18.5% target share, in a game that finished 34-10. His worst was Week 17 against TB at 1.5, on 3 targets, final score 20-17. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 11 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 5.7; in the 10 decided by more, 7.7. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 6.5 points per game. He scored 6.86, 5.1% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND | 8-33 | 4.9 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 16.1% | 58% |
| 2 | NE | 27-33 | 9.5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 6.3% | 61% |
| 3 | BUF | 21-31 | 6.2 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 15.2% | 54% |
| 4 | NYJ | 27-21 | 4.1 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 12% | 48% |
| 5 | CAR | 24-27 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14.7% | 58% |
| 6 | LAC | 27-29 | 6.3 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16.7% | 44% |
| 7 | CLE | 6-31 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26.7% | 64% |
| 8 | ATL | 34-10 | 13.6 | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18.5% | 62% |
| 9 | BAL | 6-28 | 7.1 | 3 | 3 | 48 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 8.1% | 70% |
| 10 | BUF | 30-13 | 9.3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 14.3% | 45% |
| 11 | WAS | 16-13 | 7.2 | 3 | 3 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15% | 50% |
| 13 | NO | 21-17 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25% | 60% |
| 14 | NYJ | 34-10 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19% | 52% |
| 15 | PIT | 15-28 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.8% | 56% |
| 16 | CIN | 21-45 | 10.2 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 3.4% | 53% |
| 17 | TB | 20-17 | 1.5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13.6% | 64% |
| 18 | NE | 10-38 | 11.8 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 1 | 16.7% | 70% |
| Receptions | 46 |
| Targets | 65 |
| Receiving yards | 317 |
| Carries | 17 |
| Rushing yards | 110 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 6.86 |
| Yards per target | 4.88 |
| Catch rate | 70.77% |
| Yards per carry | 6.47 |
| Snap share | 57% |
| Target share | 14.42% |
| Air-yards share | 10.52% |
| WOPR | 0.29 |
| RACR | 1.979 |
| Average depth of target | 4.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.5 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 1.4 |
| Total YAC | 253 |
| Broken tackles | 5 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 83.9 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.58 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.01 |
| Red-zone targets | 11 |
| Red-zone target share | 17.2% |
| End-zone target share | 8.7% |
| Red-zone carry share | 4.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.28 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.28 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.23 |
The offense threw it 479 times. He took 14.44% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Jaylen Waddle | 22.22% |
| De'Von Achane | 18.89% |
| Malik Washington ← | 14.44% |
| Darren Waller | 7.56% |
| Greg Dulcich | 7.33% |
| Tyreek Hill | 6.44% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 14 | 57 | 6.66 | 4.98 | 15.1% |
| Quinn Ewers | 3 | 8 | 7.83 | 4.13 | 11.23% |
8 of his 17 games were blowouts, 59% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8.61 in those and 5.66 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 10 against LA — 10.5 PPR on 2 targets and a 7.1% target share, in a game that finished 23-15. His worst was Week 14 against NYJ at 0, on 1 targets, final score 32-26. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 11 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 3.5; in the 7 decided by more, 4.6. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 5.3 points per game. He scored 4.06, 11% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | TEN | 12-31 | 1.8 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4.8% | 23% |
| 5 | NE | 15-10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 26% |
| 7 | IND | 10-16 | 2.9 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 13.6% | 36% |
| 8 | ARI | 27-28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 25% |
| 9 | BUF | 27-30 | 0.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 34% |
| 10 | LA | 23-15 | 10.5 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 1 | 7.1% | 34% |
| 11 | LV | 34-19 | 4.8 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 8.6% | 40% |
| 12 | NE | 34-15 | 1.3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5% | 34% |
| 13 | GB | 17-30 | 2.8 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 8.7% | 38% |
| 14 | NYJ | 32-26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.2% | 42% |
| 15 | HOU | 12-20 | 10.2 | 5 | 6 | 52 | 0 | 15.4% | 59% |
| 16 | SF | 29-17 | 5.8 | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 12.9% | 87% |
| 17 | CLE | 20-3 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 | 20.8% | 87% |
| 18 | NYJ | 20-32 | 8.8 | 4 | 5 | 48 | 0 | 13.5% | 61% |
| Receptions | 26 |
| Targets | 36 |
| Receiving yards | 223 |
| Carries | 5 |
| Rushing yards | 25 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 4.06 |
| Yards per target | 6.19 |
| Catch rate | 72.22% |
| Yards per carry | 5 |
| Snap share | 44.71% |
| Target share | 8.04% |
| Air-yards share | 6.94% |
| WOPR | 0.17 |
| RACR | 0.751 |
| Average depth of target | 5.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 3.8 |
| Total YAC | 123 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 88.1 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.5 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.05 |
| Red-zone targets | 2 |
| Red-zone target share | 2.4% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.46 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.46 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.04 |
The offense threw it 591 times. He took 6.47% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Tyreek Hill | 21.94% |
| Jonnu Smith | 19.96% |
| De'Von Achane | 15.65% |
| Jaylen Waddle | 14.93% |
| Malik Washington ← | 6.47% |
| Raheem Mostert | 4.14% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 9 | 22 | 4.03 | 5.32 | 6.66% |
| Tyler Huntley | 4 | 11 | 4.4 | 8.82 | 9.78% |
| Tim Boyle | 1 | 3 | 2.9 | 3 | 13.6% |
3 of his 14 games were blowouts, 17.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3.37 in those and 3.5 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
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