Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 8.15 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 185.1, usage worth 9.8.
27 years old · 4 seasons of experience · 2022 draft class
| SLEEPER | 211.9 |
| ESPN | 170.3 |
| UNDERDOG | 190.9 |
| CBS | 173.1 |
| FFA | 183 |
| Goes around | Round 16, pick 5 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | TE71 |
| Bye week | 10 |
| ADP standard deviation | 23.3 picks |
Our board has him at 102.8 points, 6.8 per game — 42.7 catches, 415 yards, 3.1 TDs. That is TE5, 179 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 3.4 points per game to a ceiling of 10.2, with the median at 6.8. Boom rate 49%, bust rate 49%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 185.1 on consensus and our board has him 179. We rank him 6.1 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1, oc. Baker Mayfield at quarterback, Todd Bowles as head coach, Zac Robinson calling it. The offense projects to 33.1 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 27.2 rushes.
In: Ted Hurst (wr5), David Sills V (wr7), Kenneth Gainwell (rb2). Out: Mike Evans (wr1), Rachaad White (rb2), Ko Kieft (te2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 11.8%, with a bear case of 11.2% and a bull case of 12.7% and a full range of 10.8% to 13.8%. That comes from 25 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Emeka Egbuka | 20.2% |
| Jalen McMillan | 14.1% |
| Chris Godwin | 13% |
| Cade Otton ← | 11.8% |
| Tez Johnson | 10.8% |
| Bucky Irving | 7.7% |
What the offense looks like: Baker Mayfield is likely the QB of the future for Tampa & they are actively working to extend him. At its peak, it is a high powered offense that you want to own pieces of. This WR room has a void to fill with the departure of future HOF WR Mike Evans. Godwin is aging, & Egbuka COULD become a true WR1. OR McMillan, Johnson, or Hurst could break out and establish themselves as low end WR2/WR3 types. All of them can't win, but someone will. This RB room is confusing and Tampa has recently run a committee. Unclear if that is because Bucky was hurt in 2025 but he didnt have a single carry inside the 5 yard line the entire season. This makes me think Kenneth Gainwell will see significantly more playing time than many people realize. Sean Tucker MAY end up keeping the goalline role as well. We will find out.
Key additions: RB Kenneth Gainwell signed 2 year deal following IMPRESSIVE season in Pittsburgh as their RB2. Drafted WR Ted Hurst in the 3rd round. Extended TE Cade Otton. Hired new OC Zac Robinson from ATL.
Key departures: WR Mike Evans left to 49ers in free agency after entire career with Bucs. RB Rachaad White left to Commanders in free agency (RB2 and filled in when Irving was injured).
Notes: Emeka Egbuka is primed for a MASSIVE breakout if Baker Mayfield has strong 2026 season. Mike Evans left team in free agency for 49ers, opening up opportunity for Jalen McMillan & Tez Johnson & Ted Hurst 3rd round draft pick (young & productive WR). Chris Godwin aging & struggles to produce but could have decent low end WR2/WR3 role over next few years. Bucs signed Kenneth Gainwell in free agency who was HIGHLY productive in Pittsburgh. Strong concern for Bucky Irving owners. We will have to see how the RB split carries. Will get a better idea through the summer and camp. Worth note, if the Bucs do not perform well in 2026, Todd Bowles is going to get fired. Expect his best product or he's done.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Baker Mayfield returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (32.8 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.1 att/g; New OC Zac Robinson — pass rate and tempo may shift.
25 historical comps for TEs age ~25, prior share 17.1%, same team, OC change. Distribution: median 16.1%, p25-p75 [13.2%, 18.0%], tails [11.7%, 21.4%]. Closest comps: Cade Otton 2024→2025 (TB: 15.6%→17.4%); Dalton Schultz 2020→2021 (DAL: 14.6%→17.2%); Tyler Conklin 2022→2023 (NYJ: 14.8%→15.5%). Adjustment: -6% from role_decline (real opportunity collapse)
self-anchored 58% to own 17.1% role (3yr), 42% to comp median 16.1%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: TB rates 23 against a league average of 23, exactly at it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -0.6 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | +1.3 · neutral |
| Weeks 12–17 | -5.1 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -3.7 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 3 | Payne Durham | +8.6 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +7.2% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.3 elite seasons and 2.3 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Ferguson | 2024 | 7.5 | 61% | +24.4% |
| Dawson Knox | 2022 | 9 | 61% | -18.1% |
| Foster Moreau | 2022 | 6.2 | 61% | -33.6% |
| Tyler Conklin | 2022 | 7.7 | 60% | -4.9% |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 2024 | 7.1 | 58% | +2.4% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2022, round 4, pick 106 by TAM |
| College | Washington |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| Height | 6′5″ |
| Weight | 247 lb |
| Career PPR per game | 8.6 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.7 |
| Boom rate | 28% |
| Bust rate | 28% |
| Games missed per season | 1.3 |
| Injury history | Knee |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.56 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 18 against CAR — 22.4 PPR on 9 targets and a 40.9% target share, in a game that finished 16-14. His worst was Week 1 against ATL at 0, on 3 targets, final score 23-20. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 8; in the 5 decided by more, 8.5. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 9.8 points per game. He scored 8.15, 16.9% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL | 23-20 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10% | 86% |
| 2 | HOU | 20-19 | 5.5 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 11.1% | 91% |
| 4 | PHI | 25-31 | 3.9 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 10.3% | 96% |
| 5 | SEA | 38-35 | 12.1 | 4 | 5 | 81 | 0 | 15.6% | 92% |
| 6 | SF | 30-19 | 10.1 | 5 | 6 | 51 | 0 | 26.1% | 100% |
| 7 | DET | 9-24 | 13.5 | 7 | 9 | 65 | 0 | 18% | 97% |
| 8 | NO | 23-3 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 40 | 0 | 20.8% | 97% |
| 10 | NE | 23-28 | 17.2 | 9 | 12 | 82 | 0 | 27.9% | 97% |
| 11 | BUF | 32-44 | 4.8 | 2 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 18.5% | 97% |
| 12 | LA | 7-34 | 6.1 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 0 | 22.6% | 86% |
| 13 | ARI | 20-17 | 2.9 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 7.7% | 97% |
| 14 | NO | 20-24 | 4.9 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 14.3% | 81% |
| 16 | CAR | 20-23 | 3.5 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 8% | 94% |
| 17 | MIA | 17-20 | 7.3 | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 9.1% | 97% |
| 18 | CAR | 16-14 | 22.4 | 7 | 9 | 94 | 1 | 40.9% | 96% |
| Receptions | 59 |
| Targets | 81 |
| Receiving yards | 572 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 8.15 |
| Yards per target | 7.06 |
| Catch rate | 72.84% |
| Snap share | 93.6% |
| Target share | 17.39% |
| Air-yards share | 11.62% |
| WOPR | 0.342 |
| RACR | 1.39 |
| Average depth of target | 5.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 4.5 |
| Total YAC | 309 |
| Broken tackles | 6 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 86 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.2 |
| Red-zone targets | 6 |
| Red-zone target share | 8.3% |
| End-zone target share | 6.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.18 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.18 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 13 of 13 |
| Yards per target | 11 of 13 |
| Target share | 11 of 13 |
| Air-yards share | 12 of 13 |
The offense threw it 558 times. He took 15% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Emeka Egbuka | 23.52% |
| Cade Otton ← | 15% |
| Mike Evans | 11.48% |
| Sterling Shepard | 9.81% |
| Chris Godwin | 9.44% |
| Rachaad White | 8.33% |
2 of his 15 games were blowouts, 11.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.05 in those and 7.97 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 8 against ATL — 29.1 PPR on 10 targets and a 21.7% target share, in a game that finished 26-31. His worst was Week 2 against DET at -0.4, on 2 targets, final score 20-16. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 12; in the 8 decided by more, 8.5. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 10.5 points per game. He scored 10.04, 7.4% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WAS | 37-20 | 1.5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 6.7% | 86% |
| 2 | DET | 20-16 | -0.4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10.5% | 100% |
| 3 | DEN | 7-26 | 9.7 | 7 | 8 | 47 | 0 | 25% | 91% |
| 4 | PHI | 33-16 | 11.2 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 0 | 19.1% | 95% |
| 5 | ATL | 30-36 | 7.4 | 3 | 4 | 44 | 0 | 16.7% | 100% |
| 6 | NO | 51-27 | 9.5 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 1 | 16.7% | 81% |
| 7 | BAL | 31-41 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 100 | 0 | 22.2% | 98% |
| 8 | ATL | 26-31 | 29.1 | 9 | 10 | 81 | 2 | 21.7% | 93% |
| 9 | KC | 24-30 | 21.7 | 8 | 11 | 77 | 1 | 35.5% | 98% |
| 10 | SF | 20-23 | 8.5 | 5 | 8 | 35 | 0 | 27.6% | 93% |
| 12 | NYG | 30-7 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 10% | 82% |
| 13 | CAR | 26-23 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 0 | 20.6% | 94% |
| 14 | LV | 28-13 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 70 | 0 | 14.3% | 97% |
| 15 | LAC | 40-17 | 4.4 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 11.5% | 92% |
| Receptions | 59 |
| Targets | 87 |
| Receiving yards | 600 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | -4 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 10.04 |
| Yards per target | 6.9 |
| Catch rate | 67.82% |
| Yards per carry | -4 |
| Snap share | 92.86% |
| Target share | 18.44% |
| Air-yards share | 15.28% |
| WOPR | 0.384 |
| RACR | 1.444 |
| Average depth of target | 5.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 4.9 |
| Total YAC | 311 |
| Broken tackles | 6 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 88.3 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.9 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.09 |
| Red-zone targets | 16 |
| Red-zone target share | 18.8% |
| End-zone target share | 19.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 4.65 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.65 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 9 of 13 |
| Yards per target | 9 of 13 |
| Target share | 8 of 13 |
| Air-yards share | 8 of 13 |
The offense threw it 571 times. He took 15.45% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Mike Evans | 19.54% |
| Cade Otton ← | 15.45% |
| Chris Godwin | 11.01% |
| Jalen McMillan | 10.3% |
| Rachaad White | 10.12% |
| Bucky Irving | 9.24% |
6 of his 14 games were blowouts, 28.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.72 in those and 12.05 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 9 against HOU — 25 PPR on 9 targets and a 30% target share, in a game that finished 37-39. His worst was Week 13 against CAR at 0, on 0 targets, final score 21-18. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 9.3; in the 10 decided by more, 5.4. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 8.3 points per game. He scored 6.97, 1.5% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 5 against 3.19 expected, a gap of 1.8.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 20-17 | 3.9 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 9.4% | 97% |
| 2 | CHI | 27-17 | 10.1 | 6 | 6 | 41 | 0 | 18.8% | 97% |
| 3 | PHI | 11-25 | 2.6 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 8% | 91% |
| 4 | NO | 26-9 | 10.3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 13.3% | 100% |
| 6 | DET | 6-20 | 2.5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 5.4% | 96% |
| 7 | ATL | 13-16 | 9.3 | 5 | 6 | 43 | 0 | 14.6% | 96% |
| 8 | BUF | 18-24 | 8.7 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 0 | 15.4% | 97% |
| 9 | HOU | 37-39 | 25 | 6 | 9 | 70 | 2 | 30% | 100% |
| 10 | TEN | 20-6 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 10.3% | 95% |
| 11 | SF | 14-27 | 8.9 | 4 | 5 | 49 | 0 | 11.6% | 96% |
| 12 | IND | 20-27 | 8.5 | 4 | 4 | 45 | 0 | 13.3% | 100% |
| 13 | CAR | 21-18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 98% |
| 14 | ATL | 29-25 | 9.6 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 1 | 17.2% | 97% |
| 15 | GB | 34-20 | 6.4 | 2 | 2 | 44 | 0 | 7.4% | 90% |
| 16 | JAX | 30-12 | 1.7 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 2.9% | 97% |
| 17 | NO | 13-23 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 18.2% | 95% |
| 18 | CAR | 9-0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 9.7% | 94% |
| Receptions | 47 |
| Targets | 67 |
| Receiving yards | 455 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 6.97 |
| Yards per target | 6.79 |
| Catch rate | 70.15% |
| Snap share | 96.24% |
| Target share | 12.09% |
| Air-yards share | 9.24% |
| WOPR | 0.246 |
| RACR | 1.359 |
| Average depth of target | 6.7 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 5 |
| Total YAC | 220 |
| Broken tackles | 4 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 102.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.74 |
| Red-zone targets | 14 |
| Red-zone target share | 19.4% |
| End-zone target share | 17.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.19 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 5 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.81 |
The offense threw it 568 times. He took 12.18% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Mike Evans | 24.73% |
| Chris Godwin | 23.64% |
| Rachaad White | 12.73% |
| Trey Palmer | 12.36% |
| Cade Otton ← | 12.18% |
| Deven Thompkins | 4.55% |
2 of his 17 games were blowouts, 10.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6 in those and 9.29 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 9 against LA — 17.8 PPR on 6 targets and a 10.9% target share, in a game that finished 16-13. His worst was Week 12 against CLE at 0, on 0 targets, final score 17-23. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 12 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 7.1; in the 7 decided by more, 4.1. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 8.4 points per game. He scored 5.82, 18.3% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 2 against 4 expected, a gap of -2.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DAL | 19-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 48% |
| 2 | NO | 20-10 | 1.4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6.1% | 49% |
| 4 | KC | 31-41 | 5.9 | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 7.7% | 67% |
| 5 | ATL | 21-15 | 10.3 | 6 | 7 | 43 | 0 | 14% | 94% |
| 6 | PIT | 18-20 | 4.3 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 8.1% | 56% |
| 7 | CAR | 3-21 | 10.4 | 4 | 5 | 64 | 0 | 10.4% | 81% |
| 8 | BAL | 22-27 | 3.5 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 11.9% | 91% |
| 9 | LA | 16-13 | 17.8 | 5 | 6 | 68 | 1 | 10.9% | 85% |
| 10 | SEA | 21-16 | 6.5 | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 | 10.3% | 61% |
| 12 | CLE | 17-23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 52% |
| 13 | NO | 17-16 | 14.8 | 6 | 10 | 28 | 1 | 18.9% | 83% |
| 14 | SF | 7-35 | 6.8 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 9.8% | 59% |
| 15 | CIN | 23-34 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 2.4% | 65% |
| 16 | ARI | 19-16 | 3.2 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 0 | 14.6% | 84% |
| 17 | CAR | 30-24 | 3.7 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 14.3% | 87% |
| 18 | ATL | 17-30 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | 35% |
| Receptions | 42 |
| Targets | 65 |
| Receiving yards | 391 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 5.82 |
| Yards per target | 6.02 |
| Catch rate | 64.62% |
| Snap share | 68.56% |
| Target share | 8.9% |
| Air-yards share | 8.02% |
| WOPR | 0.189 |
| RACR | 1.207 |
| Average depth of target | 4.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 5.2 |
| Total YAC | 174 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 91.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.31 |
| Red-zone targets | 17 |
| Red-zone target share | 14.8% |
| End-zone target share | 13.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 4 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | -2 |
The offense threw it 751 times. He took 8.99% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Chris Godwin | 19.64% |
| Mike Evans | 17.57% |
| Leonard Fournette | 11.48% |
| Russell Gage | 9.68% |
| Cade Otton ← | 8.99% |
| Rachaad White | 8.02% |
2 of his 16 games were blowouts, 18.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8.6 in those and 7.12 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
Ask the Coach about Cade Otton →