Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 24.51 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 6.1, usage worth 23.1.
30 years old · 9 seasons of experience · 2017 draft class
| SLEEPER | 5.4 |
| ESPN | 6.7 |
| YAHOO | 5.5 |
| UNDERDOG | 6.3 |
| CBS | 6.6 |
| FFA | 5 |
| Goes around | Round 1, pick 6 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | RB3 |
| Bye week | 8 |
| ADP standard deviation | 0.7 picks |
Our board has him at 310.7 points, 19.4 per game — 970 rushing yards, 9.6 rushing TDs, 70 catches. That is RB1, 5 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 18.1 points per game to a ceiling of 27.3, with the median at 19.4. Boom rate 41%, bust rate 7%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 6.1 on consensus and our board has him 5. Those agree, so there is no market disagreement to exploit. The question is whether you want the profile, not whether it is mispriced.
Full-PPR riser - coming off a 100-catch season; if healthy into Week 1 he's a top-3 RB and the late-August market may push him into the top 3 picks. RB ADPs are climbing league-wide and he's a prime beneficiary. Health is the only real question.
buy · high conviction · 2026-06-14San Francisco 49ers returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1. Brock Purdy at quarterback, Kyle Shanahan as head coach, Klay Kubiak calling it. The offense projects to 33.7 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 27.7 rushes.
In: Mike Evans (wr1), De'Zhaun Stribling (wr2), Christian Kirk (wr4), Jacob Cowing (wr7), Kaelon Black (rb2). Out: Jauan Jennings (wr1), Kendrick Bourne (wr3), Brian Robinson Jr. (rb2).
The projected carry split across the offense:
| Christian McCaffrey ← | 58.4% |
| Kaelon Black | 25% |
| Jordan James | 15.3% |
| Isaac Guerendo | 1.3% |
Key additions: Signed WR Mike Evans from Bucs in free agency. Signed WR Christian Kirk in free agency. Drafted WR De'Zhaun Stribling in the 2nd round from Ole Miss. Drafted RB Kaelon Black in the 3rd round.
Key departures: WR Brandon Aiyuk (who did not play all of 2025 due to injury) is gone. WR Jauan Jennings is also gone. He has functioned as 49ers WR 1/2 for the past two seasons. RB Brian Robinson Jr left to ATL in free agency.
Notes: Stribling round 2 has opportunity to break out early. Mike Evans signing in free agency. Should be alpha WR1 but aging & injury risk. Potential sell high but should produce in 2026. Drafted RB Kaelon Black round 3 from Indiana. Black was not even invited to the NFL combine, but 49ers LOVE him. Could assume RB2 role immediately if he beats out Jordan James. Ricky Pearsall has an opportunity to break out as a WR2 but needs to stay healthy enough to do so. Signed Christian Kirk in offseason, veteran with no fantasy value but will take away targets. Kittle recovering from torn achilles. Drafted Wills the TE. Tonges should function as primary TE2, Wills will be TE3. CMC is a potential sell high candidate but know if healthy he is the number 1 overall RB in 2026.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Brock Purdy returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (33.7 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.6 att/g.
| Projected carry share | 58.4% |
| Projected carries per game | 13.3 |
| Projected carries, full season | 226 |
| Last season, carries per game | 17.7 |
That is a reduction of 4.5 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 27.7 rushing attempts a game.
Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.
Offensive environment: SF rates 25.4 against a league average of 23, 2.4 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -1.6 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | +0.3 · neutral |
| Weeks 12–17 | -5.3 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -8.2 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 3 | Chuba Hubbard | +9 |
| 2020 | 6 | Mike Davis | +5.4 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +8.9% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 2021 | 18.1 | 30% | -14.7% |
| Aaron Jones | 2024 | 14.2 | 29% | -9.8% |
| Alvin Kamara | 2024 | 19 | 25% | -27.4% |
| Austin Ekeler | 2022 | 21.9 | 25% | -16.1% |
| Joe Mixon | 2023 | 15.7 | 24% | +42.4% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 4 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2017, round 1, pick 8 by CAR |
| College | Stanford |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| Height | 5′11″ |
| Weight | 202 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.48s |
| Vertical | 37.5″ |
| Broad jump | 121″ |
| 3-cone | 6.57s |
| Shuttle | 4.22s |
| Career PPR per game | 22.9 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.4 |
| Boom rate | 13% |
| Bust rate | 15.2% |
| Games missed per season | 1 |
| Injury history | Hamstring, Calf |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.36 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 7 against ATL — 39.1 PPR on 32 touches and a 33.3% target share, in a game that finished 20-10. His worst was Week 8 against HOU at 9.8, on 14 touches, final score 15-26. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 12 times and came in under 8 points 0 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 25.3; in the 11 decided by more, 24.1. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 23.1 points per game. He scored 24.51, 4.3% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA | 17-13 | 23.2 | 9 | 10 | 73 | 22 | 69 | 0 | 29.4% | 76% |
| 2 | NO | 26-21 | 22.7 | 6 | 7 | 52 | 13 | 55 | 1 | 18.4% | 77% |
| 3 | ARI | 16-15 | 24 | 10 | 15 | 88 | 17 | 52 | 0 | 39.5% | 91% |
| 4 | JAX | 21-26 | 26.1 | 6 | 11 | 92 | 17 | 49 | 1 | 29.7% | 85% |
| 5 | LA | 26-23 | 27.9 | 8 | 9 | 82 | 22 | 57 | 1 | 18.8% | 88% |
| 6 | TB | 19-30 | 24.1 | 7 | 8 | 57 | 17 | 54 | 1 | 21.6% | 93% |
| 7 | ATL | 20-10 | 39.1 | 7 | 8 | 72 | 24 | 129 | 2 | 33.3% | 75% |
| 8 | HOU | 15-26 | 9.8 | 3 | 6 | 43 | 8 | 25 | 0 | 19.4% | 96% |
| 9 | NYG | 34-24 | 34.3 | 5 | 6 | 67 | 28 | 106 | 2 | 26.1% | 86% |
| 10 | LA | 26-42 | 17.6 | 8 | 10 | 66 | 12 | 30 | 0 | 25.6% | 78% |
| 11 | ARI | 41-22 | 35.1 | 5 | 6 | 40 | 13 | 81 | 3 | 24% | 71% |
| 12 | CAR | 20-9 | 27.2 | 7 | 7 | 53 | 24 | 89 | 1 | 21.9% | 83% |
| 13 | CLE | 26-8 | 17.4 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 20 | 53 | 1 | 17.4% | 79% |
| 15 | TEN | 37-24 | 15.7 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 22 | 73 | 1 | 3.6% | 84% |
| 16 | IND | 48-27 | 32.6 | 6 | 8 | 29 | 21 | 117 | 2 | 24.2% | 80% |
| 17 | CHI | 42-38 | 28.1 | 4 | 6 | 41 | 23 | 140 | 1 | 18.2% | 85% |
| 18 | SEA | 3-13 | 11.7 | 6 | 7 | 34 | 8 | 23 | 0 | 25.9% | 86% |
| Receptions | 102 |
| Targets | 129 |
| Receiving yards | 924 |
| Carries | 311 |
| Rushing yards | 1,202 |
| Touchdowns | 17 |
| Points per game | 24.51 |
| Yards per target | 7.16 |
| Catch rate | 79.07% |
| Yards per carry | 3.86 |
| Snap share | 83.12% |
| Target share | 23.35% |
| Air-yards share | 7.81% |
| WOPR | 0.405 |
| RACR | 5.764 |
| Average depth of target | 2.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 2 |
| Total YAC | 720 |
| Broken tackles | 11 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 104.9 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.3 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -1.24 |
| Red-zone targets | 27 |
| Red-zone target share | 29.7% |
| End-zone target share | 17.6% |
| Red-zone carry share | 76.9% |
| Goal-line carry share | 77.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 7.09 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 8 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.91 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 12.48 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 1 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 10 of 49 |
| Target share | 1 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 1 of 49 |
The offense threw it 574 times. He took 24.76% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Christian McCaffrey ← | 24.76% |
| Jauan Jennings | 17.27% |
| George Kittle | 13.24% |
| Kendrick Bourne | 10.17% |
| Ricky Pearsall | 10.17% |
| Jake Tonges | 8.83% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 9 | 60 | 24.12 | 6.62 | 21.59% |
| Mac Jones | 8 | 69 | 24.94 | 7.64 | 25.34% |
3 of his 17 games were blowouts, 20.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 28.37 in those and 25.33 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 10 against TB — 16.7 PPR on 20 touches and a 20.6% target share, in a game that finished 23-20. His worst was Week 12 against GB at 7.8, on 15 touches, final score 10-38. Across 4 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 1 time.
His usage that season was worth 15.5 points per game. He scored 11.95, 22.7% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | TB | 23-20 | 16.7 | 6 | 7 | 68 | 13 | 39 | 0 | 20.6% | 88% |
| 11 | SEA | 17-20 | 14.6 | 4 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 79 | 0 | 17.9% | 94% |
| 12 | GB | 10-38 | 7.8 | 3 | 4 | 37 | 11 | 31 | 0 | 15.4% | 82% |
| 13 | BUF | 10-35 | 8.7 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 7 | 53 | 0 | 17.6% | 25% |
| Receptions | 15 |
| Targets | 19 |
| Receiving yards | 146 |
| Carries | 50 |
| Rushing yards | 202 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 11.95 |
| Yards per target | 7.68 |
| Catch rate | 78.95% |
| Yards per carry | 4.04 |
| Snap share | 72.25% |
| Target share | 17.88% |
| Air-yards share | 6.5% |
| WOPR | 0.315 |
| RACR | 1.255 |
| Average depth of target | 3.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.5 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 3.2 |
| Total YAC | 98 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 76.8 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -1.44 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.72 |
| Red-zone targets | 4 |
| Red-zone target share | 4.9% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 7.1% |
| Goal-line carry share | 3.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.74 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.74 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.66 |
The offense threw it 533 times. He took 3.94% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Jauan Jennings | 23.44% |
| George Kittle | 19.5% |
| Deebo Samuel | 16.8% |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 9.75% |
| Ricky Pearsall | 9.54% |
| Christian McCaffrey ← | 3.94% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 3 | 15 | 13.33 | 7.27 | 18.7% |
| Brandon Allen | 1 | 4 | 7.8 | 9.25 | 15.4% |
2 of his 4 games were blowouts, 34.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8.25 in those and 15.65 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 4 against ARI — 48.7 PPR on 28 touches and a 38.1% target share, in a game that finished 35-16. His worst was Week 17 against WAS at 13.1, on 19 touches, final score 27-10. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 12 times and came in under 8 points 0 times. In the 3 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 19.8; in the 13 decided by more, 25.5. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 18.9 points per game. He scored 24.46, 33.8% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PIT | 30-7 | 25.9 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 22 | 152 | 1 | 17.9% | 85% |
| 2 | LA | 30-23 | 22.5 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 20 | 116 | 1 | 12.5% | 100% |
| 3 | NYG | 30-12 | 22.9 | 5 | 5 | 34 | 18 | 85 | 1 | 14.7% | 61% |
| 4 | ARI | 35-16 | 48.7 | 7 | 8 | 71 | 20 | 106 | 4 | 38.1% | 85% |
| 5 | DAL | 42-10 | 13.8 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 19 | 51 | 1 | 12% | 73% |
| 6 | CLE | 17-19 | 14.2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 43 | 1 | 12.5% | 58% |
| 7 | MIN | 17-22 | 22.6 | 3 | 3 | 51 | 15 | 45 | 2 | 10.3% | 100% |
| 8 | CIN | 17-31 | 29.8 | 6 | 7 | 64 | 12 | 54 | 2 | 23.3% | 97% |
| 10 | JAX | 34-3 | 20.2 | 6 | 10 | 47 | 16 | 95 | 0 | 37% | 76% |
| 11 | TB | 27-14 | 21.3 | 5 | 5 | 25 | 21 | 78 | 1 | 20% | 87% |
| 12 | SEA | 31-13 | 30.9 | 5 | 6 | 25 | 19 | 114 | 2 | 20% | 77% |
| 13 | PHI | 42-19 | 22.3 | 3 | 4 | 40 | 17 | 93 | 1 | 16% | 88% |
| 14 | SEA | 28-16 | 16.3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 16 | 145 | 0 | 3.7% | 89% |
| 15 | ARI | 45-29 | 41.7 | 5 | 5 | 72 | 18 | 115 | 3 | 19.2% | 77% |
| 16 | BAL | 19-33 | 25.1 | 6 | 10 | 28 | 14 | 103 | 1 | 22.7% | 100% |
| 17 | WAS | 27-10 | 13.1 | 4 | 5 | 27 | 14 | 64 | 0 | 18.5% | 54% |
| Receptions | 67 |
| Targets | 83 |
| Receiving yards | 564 |
| Carries | 272 |
| Rushing yards | 1,459 |
| Touchdowns | 21 |
| Points per game | 24.46 |
| Yards per target | 6.8 |
| Catch rate | 80.72% |
| Yards per carry | 5.36 |
| Snap share | 81.69% |
| Target share | 18.65% |
| Air-yards share | 3.89% |
| WOPR | 0.307 |
| RACR | -1.12 |
| Average depth of target | 1.8 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 1.5 |
| Total YAC | 461 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 113.1 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.4 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.9 |
| Red-zone targets | 18 |
| Red-zone target share | 22.2% |
| End-zone target share | 12% |
| Red-zone carry share | 62.7% |
| Goal-line carry share | 52.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 4.53 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 5 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.47 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 12.81 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 1 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 8 of 49 |
| Target share | 1 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 1 of 49 |
The offense threw it 491 times. He took 18.28% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Brandon Aiyuk | 23.13% |
| George Kittle | 19.82% |
| Deebo Samuel | 19.6% |
| Christian McCaffrey ← | 18.28% |
| Jauan Jennings | 7.27% |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 3.3% |
8 of his 16 games were blowouts, 50.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 24.73 in those and 19.77 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 8 against LA — 40.26 PPR on 27 touches and a 34.6% target share, in a game that finished 31-14. His worst was Week 7 against KC at 8.2, on 10 touches, final score 23-44. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 8 times and came in under 8 points 0 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 20.1; in the 11 decided by more, 21.4. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 18 points per game. He scored 20.96, 15.6% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLE | 24-26 | 15.7 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 10 | 33 | 1 | 19.2% | 81% |
| 2 | NYG | 16-19 | 16.8 | 4 | 5 | 26 | 15 | 102 | 0 | 18.5% | 91% |
| 3 | NO | 22-14 | 13.5 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 25 | 108 | 0 | 16.7% | 80% |
| 4 | ARI | 16-26 | 25.8 | 9 | 9 | 81 | 8 | 27 | 1 | 25% | 87% |
| 5 | SF | 15-37 | 23.4 | 7 | 12 | 50 | 14 | 54 | 1 | 30% | 86% |
| 6 | LA | 10-24 | 22.8 | 7 | 8 | 89 | 13 | 69 | 0 | 38.1% | 86% |
| 7 | KC | 23-44 | 8.2 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 8 | 38 | 0 | 4.3% | 29% |
| 8 | LA | 31-14 | 40.26 | 8 | 9 | 55 | 18 | 94 | 3 | 34.6% | 81% |
| 10 | LAC | 22-16 | 17.7 | 4 | 6 | 39 | 14 | 38 | 1 | 21.4% | 65% |
| 11 | ARI | 38-10 | 17.6 | 7 | 7 | 67 | 7 | 39 | 0 | 24.1% | 66% |
| 12 | NO | 13-0 | 8.9 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 11 | 32 | 0 | 16.2% | 63% |
| 13 | MIA | 33-17 | 28.6 | 8 | 10 | 80 | 17 | 66 | 1 | 25% | 82% |
| 14 | TB | 35-7 | 29.3 | 2 | 3 | 34 | 14 | 119 | 2 | 13.6% | 70% |
| 15 | SEA | 21-13 | 25.8 | 6 | 8 | 30 | 26 | 108 | 1 | 30.8% | 89% |
| 16 | WAS | 37-20 | 13.8 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 15 | 46 | 1 | 9.5% | 75% |
| 17 | LV | 37-34 | 31.3 | 6 | 9 | 72 | 19 | 121 | 1 | 26.5% | 85% |
| 18 | ARI | 38-13 | 16.9 | 3 | 3 | 34 | 10 | 45 | 1 | 15% | 48% |
| Receptions | 85 |
| Targets | 108 |
| Receiving yards | 741 |
| Carries | 244 |
| Rushing yards | 1,139 |
| Touchdowns | 14 |
| Points per game | 20.96 |
| Yards per target | 6.86 |
| Catch rate | 78.7% |
| Yards per carry | 4.67 |
| Snap share | 74.35% |
| Target share | 21.68% |
| Air-yards share | -0.23% |
| WOPR | 0.323 |
| RACR | 0.596 |
| Average depth of target | 1.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 8.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 0.5 |
| Total YAC | 695 |
| Broken tackles | 8 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 106.8 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.21 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.12 |
| Red-zone targets | 15 |
| Red-zone target share | 20.5% |
| End-zone target share | 16.7% |
| Red-zone carry share | 38.8% |
| Goal-line carry share | 37.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.24 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.76 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 8.47 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 2 of 42 |
| Yards per target | 6 of 42 |
| Target share | 1 of 42 |
| Air-yards share | 24 of 42 |
The offense threw it 457 times. He took 10.07% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| D.J. Moore | 27.63% |
| Terrace Marshall | 11.01% |
| Christian McCaffrey ← | 10.07% |
| Shi Smith | 9.6% |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 7.49% |
| Tommy Tremble | 7.49% |
He caught passes from 4 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 6 | 42 | 18.8 | 6.07 | 22.25% |
| Sam Darnold | 6 | 31 | 21 | 6.42 | 18.6% |
| P.J. Walker | 4 | 25 | 22.24 | 8.28 | 24.6% |
| unknown | 1 | 10 | 28.6 | 8 | 25% |
7 of his 17 games were blowouts, 41.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 21.35 in those and 20.13 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 1 against NYJ — 27.7 PPR on 30 touches and a 27.3% target share, in a game that finished 19-14. His worst was Week 12 against MIA at 3.5, on 11 touches, final score 10-33. Across 7 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 2 times.
His usage that season was worth 17.8 points per game. He scored 18.21, 2.3% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYJ | 19-14 | 27.7 | 9 | 9 | 89 | 21 | 98 | 0 | 27.3% | 89% |
| 2 | NO | 26-7 | 24.7 | 5 | 6 | 65 | 24 | 72 | 1 | 16.7% | 71% |
| 3 | HOU | 24-9 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 31 | 0 | 6.1% | 30% |
| 9 | NE | 6-24 | 14.6 | 4 | 5 | 54 | 14 | 52 | 0 | 17.2% | 49% |
| 10 | ARI | 34-10 | 26.1 | 10 | 10 | 66 | 13 | 95 | 0 | 31.3% | 59% |
| 11 | WAS | 21-27 | 24.9 | 7 | 8 | 60 | 10 | 59 | 1 | 29.6% | 90% |
| 12 | MIA | 10-33 | 3.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 35 | 0 | 3.2% | 36% |
| Receptions | 37 |
| Targets | 41 |
| Receiving yards | 343 |
| Carries | 99 |
| Rushing yards | 442 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 18.21 |
| Yards per target | 8.37 |
| Catch rate | 90.24% |
| Yards per carry | 4.46 |
| Snap share | 60.57% |
| Target share | 18.77% |
| Air-yards share | 8.46% |
| WOPR | 0.341 |
| RACR | 4.371 |
| Average depth of target | 2.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 2.3 |
| Total YAC | 258 |
| Broken tackles | 6 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 109.7 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 3.01 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.25 |
| Red-zone targets | 3 |
| Red-zone target share | 5.5% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 26% |
| Goal-line carry share | 15% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.43 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.43 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 2.63 |
The offense threw it 599 times. He took 7.13% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| D.J. Moore | 28.35% |
| Robbie Chosen | 19.13% |
| Ameer Abdullah | 8.52% |
| Christian McCaffrey ← | 7.13% |
| Chuba Hubbard | 6.43% |
| Tommy Tremble | 6.09% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 4 | 22 | 18.25 | 9.86 | 16.82% |
| Cam Newton | 2 | 9 | 14.2 | 6.67 | 16.4% |
| P.J. Walker | 1 | 10 | 26.1 | 6.6 | 31.3% |
4 of his 7 games were blowouts, 54% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 17.23 in those and 26.3 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His usage that season was worth 22.2 points per game. He scored 30.13, 35.9% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LV | 30-34 | 28.5 | 3 | 4 | 38 | 23 | 97 | 2 | 11.8% | 97% |
| 2 | TB | 17-31 | 24.8 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 18 | 59 | 2 | 12.5% | 64% |
| 9 | KC | 31-33 | 37.1 | 10 | 10 | 82 | 18 | 69 | 2 | 22.7% | 71% |
| Receptions | 17 |
| Targets | 19 |
| Receiving yards | 149 |
| Carries | 59 |
| Rushing yards | 225 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 30.13 |
| Yards per target | 7.84 |
| Catch rate | 89.47% |
| Yards per carry | 3.81 |
| Snap share | 77.33% |
| Target share | 15.67% |
| Air-yards share | 3.2% |
| WOPR | 0.26 |
| RACR | 14.077 |
| Average depth of target | 1.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 1.5 |
| Total YAC | 123 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 95 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.97 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 1.31 |
| Red-zone targets | 1 |
| Red-zone target share | 1.7% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 14.3% |
| Goal-line carry share | 17.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.31 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.69 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 2.62 |
The offense threw it 549 times. He took 3.61% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Robbie Chosen | 25.86% |
| D.J. Moore | 22.43% |
| Curtis Samuel | 18.44% |
| Mike Davis | 13.31% |
| Ian Thomas | 5.89% |
| Christian McCaffrey ← | 3.61% |