Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 15.96 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 40.7, usage worth 14.3.
24 years old · 1 season of experience · 2025 draft class
| SLEEPER | 45.7 |
| ESPN | 43 |
| YAHOO | 41.1 |
| UNDERDOG | 43.5 |
| CBS | 33 |
| FFA | 34 |
| Goes around | Round 4, pick 5 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | RB18 |
| Bye week | 8 |
| ADP standard deviation | 5.5 picks |
Our board has him at 212.7 points, 13.3 per game — 839 rushing yards, 8.8 rushing TDs, 36 catches. That is RB3, 34 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 9.2 points per game to a ceiling of 21.1, with the median at 13.3. Boom rate 58%, bust rate 31%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 40.7 on consensus and our board has him 34. We rank him 6.7 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
clearest path to a real featured role in this tier: 19.5 touches/game before his injury, and — importantly — those touches came in competitive losses against genuinely good defenses (Chiefs, Chargers, Eagles, Broncos), not empty garbage-time stats against bad teams.
buy · medium conviction · 2026-08New York Giants returns 2 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1, te1, hc, oc. Jaxson Dart at quarterback, Jim Harbaugh as head coach, Matt Nagy calling it. The offense projects to 30.3 pass attempts a game at low confidence and 27.7 rushes.
In: Darnell Mooney (wr2), Malachi Fields (wr4), Calvin Austin III (wr5), Isaiah Likely (te1). Out: Jaxon Dart (qb), Russell Wilson (qb), Wan'Dale Robinson (wr2), Gunner Olszewski (wr4), Daniel Bellinger (te2).
The projected carry split across the offense:
| Cam Skattebo ← | 54% |
| Tyrone Tracey Jr. | 24.3% |
| Devin Singletary | 20.5% |
| Eric Gray | 1.2% |
What the offense looks like: NY still reamins a question mark but there is a lot of potential in this offense if Jaxson Dart turns into the franchise QB. He has a strong arm, is mobile, and plays with a certain type of swagger not all QBs play with. Despite what Ravens fans say, bringing Harbaugh & Nagy into NY is a very good thing. A future HOF coach that is putting his reputation on the line for this team to succeed. Harbaugh has mainly focused on the defense so far, which could imply he thinks the offense is in a good spot, but we will have to see.
Key additions: Darnell Mooney WR from ATL, Calvin Austin III WR from Steelers, Drafted WR Malachi Fields 3rd round, signed TE Isaiah Likely in free agency, New Coach Jim Harbaugh & new OC Matt Nagy.
Key departures: Russell Wilson left to free agency. Won'Dale Robinson left in free agency to the Tennessee Titans (opens up significant amount of targets)
Notes: Giants fired Daboll & brought in Harbaugh. Harbaugh should revamp offense. Brought it Isaiah Likely from Baltimore who seriously hurts Theo Johnson dynasty value (likely should be good). NY did not draft RB & Skattebo will be the starter week 1 of 2026 unless they add someone. He could have a monster season with his Jaxson Dart connection growing. Jaxson Dart gets to play with Malik Nabers for the first time & connection should be electric. Darnell Mooney is a great signing & is on a 1 year prove it deal in NY. If Dart play continues, Mooney will have value.
How the volume number was reached: New QB Jaxson Dart, avg 24.2 att/g over 2025; Regressed 65% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 30.2 att/g; New OC Matt Nagy — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Jim Harbaugh.
| Projected carry share | 54% |
| Projected carries per game | 12.3 |
| Projected carries, full season | 209 |
| Last season, carries per game | 12.6 |
That is a reduction of 0.4 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 27.7 rushing attempts a game.
Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.
Offensive environment: NYG rates 21.8 against a league average of 23, 1.1 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +0.6 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | +5.4 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -2.7 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +0.4 · neutral |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +20.8% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 2023 | 17.3 | 63% | +35.6% |
| Jeffery Wilson | 2020 | 12.9 | 60% | -32.9% |
| Austin Ekeler | 2020 | 16.5 | 59% | +20.2% |
| Antonio Gibson | 2020 | 14.4 | 58% | +4% |
| James Robinson | 2021 | 12.4 | 56% | -38.1% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 3 gained value, 2 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2025, round 4, pick 105 by NYG |
| College | Arizona St. |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| Height | 5′10″ |
| Weight | 219 lb |
| Vertical | 39.5″ |
| Broad jump | 123″ |
His best game was Week 6 against PHI — 31 PPR on 21 touches and a 7.7% target share, in a game that finished 34-17. His worst was Week 1 against WAS at 2.9, on 4 touches, final score 6-21. Across 8 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 3 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 15.1; in the 5 decided by more, 16.5. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 14.3 points per game. He scored 15.96, 11.6% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 2 against 0.74 expected, a gap of 1.3.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WAS | 6-21 | 2.9 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 6.3% | 12% |
| 2 | DAL | 37-40 | 13.9 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 45 | 1 | 7.5% | 52% |
| 3 | KC | 9-22 | 24.1 | 6 | 8 | 61 | 10 | 60 | 1 | 26.7% | 59% |
| 4 | LAC | 21-18 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 25 | 79 | 0 | 10% | 75% |
| 5 | NO | 14-26 | 14.4 | 6 | 7 | 45 | 15 | 59 | 0 | 17.9% | 68% |
| 6 | PHI | 34-17 | 31 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 19 | 98 | 3 | 7.7% | 71% |
| 7 | DEN | 32-33 | 18.4 | 3 | 6 | 34 | 16 | 60 | 1 | 18.2% | 60% |
| 8 | PHI | 20-38 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 9.1% | 21% |
| Receptions | 24 |
| Targets | 32 |
| Receiving yards | 207 |
| Carries | 101 |
| Rushing yards | 410 |
| Touchdowns | 7 |
| Points per game | 15.96 |
| Yards per target | 6.47 |
| Catch rate | 75% |
| Yards per carry | 4.06 |
| Snap share | 52.25% |
| Target share | 12.93% |
| Air-yards share | -0.7% |
| WOPR | 0.19 |
| RACR | 2.436 |
| Average depth of target | -0.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 8.7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -0.1 |
| Total YAC | 209 |
| Broken tackles | 4 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 112.4 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.42 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -1.51 |
| Red-zone targets | 4 |
| Red-zone target share | 6.2% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 23.7% |
| Goal-line carry share | 30% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.74 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.26 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 4.45 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 9 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 15 of 49 |
| Target share | 9 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 28 of 49 |
The offense threw it 526 times. He took 6.37% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 27.89% |
| Theo Johnson | 14.74% |
| Darius Slayton | 12.55% |
| Tyrone Tracy | 9.56% |
| Malik Nabers | 6.97% |
| Cam Skattebo ← | 6.37% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxson Dart | 5 | 19 | 17.36 | 6.32 | 12.58% |
| Russell Wilson | 3 | 13 | 13.63 | 6.69 | 13.5% |
2 of his 8 games were blowouts, 32.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 20.5 in those and 15.1 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
Ask the Coach about Cam Skattebo →