Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 11.65 points per game in 2025, usage worth 12.1.
Our board has him at 170.5 points, 11.2 per game — 70.5 catches, 730 yards, 4.5 TDs. That is TE3, 81 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 7.6 points per game to a ceiling of 16.3, with the median at 11.2. Boom rate 46%, bust rate 33%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
Cleveland Browns returns 2 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1, te1, hc, oc. Deshaun Watson at quarterback, Todd Monken as head coach, Travis Switzer calling it. The offense projects to 32.2 pass attempts a game at low confidence and 25.9 rushes.
In: Deshaun Watson (qb), KC Concepcion (wr2), Denzel Boston (wr4), Tylan Wallace (wr5), Ahmani Marshall (rb4), Jack Stoll (te2). Out: Dillon Gabriel (qb), Jamari Thrash (wr3), David Njoku (te1).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 15.8%, with a bear case of 13.8% and a bull case of 17.9% and a full range of 11.8% to 19.9%. That comes from 25 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Jerry Jeudy | 17.2% |
| KC Concepcion | 16.6% |
| Harold Fannin Jr ← | 15.8% |
| Denzel Boston | 14.9% |
| Cedric Tillman | 8.5% |
| Quinshon Judkins | 7.6% |
What the offense looks like: Historically, this has been a brutal offense to own in fantasy. Other than TE and RB, not much fantasy relevance has come out of Cleveland in some time. Things could change with the new O line & KC & Boston arriving. Cleveland HAS to figure out the QB situation before we can have full confidence in any of these players, but the pieces may be falling in place for multiple guys to be weekly starters.
Key additions: MASSIVE OVERHAUL for browns line this offseason: Brought in LG Zion Johnson, Center Elgton Jenkins, RT Tytus Howard, & drafted LT Spencer Fano in the 1st round. Its a completely new unit under HC Todd Monken.
Key departures: TE David Njoku left the Browns & is still a free agent. Only key loss.
Notes: Browns drafted OT Spencer Fano RD 1 & WR KC Concepcion RD 1 in 2026 draft. Round 2 they took Denzel Boston. Concepcion & Boston can have fantasy value IF Cleveland figures out QB position. Browns fired HC Stefanski & hired Jesse Minter. Jerry Jeudy will likely struggle to have real fantasy value with the new rookies introduced. Harold Fannin has strong value with David Njoku leaving Cleveland. Njoku is still a free agent & COULD potentially return to Cleveland but it is unlikely. RB Quinshon Judkins was a real star of the Browns offense in 2025 and far outperformed Dylan Sampson. Judkins should be 100% recovered from his season ending leg injury he suffered in 2025 by week 1 2026.
How the volume number was reached: New QB Deshaun Watson, avg 29.7 att/g over 2024,2023; Regressed 65% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 32.2 att/g; New OC Travis Switzer — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Todd Monken.
25 historical comps for TEs age ~?, prior share 21.8%, team change, OC change, QB change. Distribution: median 17.4%, p25-p75 [14.5%, 20.5%], tails [11.6%, 23.5%]. Closest comps: T.J. Hockenson 2022→2023 (DET→MIN: 20.1%→24.0%); Dalton Schultz 2022→2023 (DAL→HOU: 17.7%→17.4%); Zach Ertz 2021→2022 (PHI→ARI: 19.6%→17.9%).
arrival self-anchored 21% to own 21.8% role (1yr)
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: CLE rates 18.5 against a league average of 23, 4.5 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +4.5 · easier |
| Weeks 1–6 | +6 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | +5.2 · easier |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +8.6 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full Harold Fannin Jr. study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Freiermuth | 2022 | 9.9 | 56% | +1.5% |
| Tucker Kraft | 2024 | 9.6 | 55% | +38.6% |
| Trey McBride | 2023 | 10.7 | 55% | +29% |
| Sam LaPorta | 2023 | 14.1 | 54% | -15.2% |
| Sam LaPorta | 2024 | 10.9 | 53% | -8.7% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 2 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2025, round 3, pick 67 by CLE |
| College | Bowling Green |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| Height | 6′3″ |
| Weight | 241 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.71s |
| Vertical | 34″ |
| Broad jump | 118″ |
| 3-cone | 6.97s |
| Shuttle | 4.39s |
His best game was Week 14 against TEN — 25.4 PPR on 11 targets and a 28.9% target share, in a game that finished 29-31. His worst was Week 4 against DET at 4.5, on 6 targets, final score 10-34. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 12.4; in the 8 decided by more, 10.9. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 12.1 points per game. He scored 11.65, 4.1% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 4 against 2.34 expected, a gap of 1.7.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIN | 16-17 | 13.6 | 7 | 9 | 63 | 0 | 21.4% | — |
| 2 | BAL | 17-41 | 9.8 | 5 | 5 | 48 | 0 | 12.2% | — |
| 3 | GB | 13-10 | 5.5 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 12.1% | — |
| 4 | DET | 10-34 | 4.5 | 2 | 6 | 24 | 0 | 17.6% | — |
| 5 | MIN | 17-21 | 11.3 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 12.5% | — |
| 6 | PIT | 9-23 | 15.1 | 7 | 10 | 81 | 0 | 19.6% | — |
| 7 | MIA | 31-6 | 7.6 | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 | 27.8% | — |
| 8 | NE | 13-32 | 18.4 | 6 | 8 | 62 | 1 | 24.2% | — |
| 10 | NYJ | 20-27 | 8.4 | 4 | 7 | 44 | 0 | 21.9% | — |
| 11 | BAL | 16-23 | 4.6 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 20% | — |
| 12 | LV | 24-10 | 8.4 | 4 | 6 | 40 | 0 | 33.3% | — |
| 13 | SF | 8-26 | 11.3 | 3 | 5 | 43 | 1 | 21.7% | — |
| 14 | TEN | 29-31 | 25.4 | 8 | 11 | 114 | 1 | 28.9% | — |
| 15 | CHI | 3-31 | 12 | 7 | 14 | 48 | 0 | 45.2% | — |
| 16 | BUF | 20-23 | 19.5 | 4 | 6 | 34 | 2 | 22.2% | — |
| 17 | PIT | 13-6 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 30 | 1 | 8.7% | — |
| Receptions | 72 |
| Targets | 107 |
| Receiving yards | 731 |
| Carries | 7 |
| Rushing yards | 13 |
| Touchdowns | 7 |
| Points per game | 11.65 |
| Yards per target | 6.83 |
| Catch rate | 67.29% |
| Yards per carry | 1.86 |
| Target share | 21.83% |
| Air-yards share | 18.66% |
| WOPR | 0.457 |
| RACR | 1.99 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.09 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.11 |
| Red-zone targets | 10 |
| Red-zone target share | 18.2% |
| End-zone target share | 18.8% |
| Red-zone carry share | 3.4% |
| Goal-line carry share | 4.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.34 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.66 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.44 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 5 of 13 |
| Yards per target | 12 of 13 |
| Target share | 4 of 13 |
| Air-yards share | 4 of 13 |
The offense threw it 557 times. He took 20.54% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Harold Fannin Jr. ← | 20.54% |
| Jerry Jeudy | 20.35% |
| David Njoku | 9.21% |
| Isaiah Bond | 8.45% |
| Dylan Sampson | 7.68% |
| Cedric Tillman | 7.49% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shedeur Sanders | 7 | 49 | 13.17 | 6.84 | 25.71% |
| Dillon Gabriel | 5 | 34 | 12.16 | 6.94 | 21.2% |
| Joe Flacco | 4 | 24 | 8.35 | 6.67 | 15.82% |
6 of his 16 games were blowouts, 34.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 10.6 in those and 12.41 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about Harold Fannin Jr. →