Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 13.85 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 46.9, usage worth 16.5.
23 years old · 2 seasons of experience · 2024 draft class
| SLEEPER | 36.5 |
| ESPN | 56.1 |
| YAHOO | 53.1 |
| UNDERDOG | 54.1 |
| CBS | 42 |
| FFA | 50 |
| Goes around | Round 4, pick 11 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | RB20 |
| Bye week | 10 |
| ADP standard deviation | 9.2 picks |
Our board has him at 190.8 points, 11.9 per game — 913 rushing yards, 5.5 rushing TDs, 30.3 catches. That is RB4, 50 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 9.2 points per game to a ceiling of 18.9, with the median at 11.9. Boom rate 59%, bust rate 22%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 46.9 on consensus and our board has him 50. We rank him 3.1 picks worse than the room drafts him, so at ADP he is mildly overpriced. That is an objection to the price and not to the player — if he falls past his slot he can be exactly the right pick.
Round-4 regret risk. Injury looks more severe than advertised - not expected back to start camp, so a ramp could bleed into Week 1. Even healthy it's a 3-way committee (Gainwell receiving, Sean Tucker goal-line); a 13-carry/1-target floor is in range and his TD projection isn't high enough to cover it. Prefer the suppressed mid-round WRs over paying round 4 here.
fade · medium conviction · 2026-06-14Tampa Bay Buccaneers returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1, oc. Baker Mayfield at quarterback, Todd Bowles as head coach, Zac Robinson calling it. The offense projects to 33.1 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 27.2 rushes.
In: Ted Hurst (wr5), David Sills V (wr7), Kenneth Gainwell (rb2). Out: Mike Evans (wr1), Rachaad White (rb2), Ko Kieft (te2).
The projected carry split across the offense:
| Bucky Irving ← | 57.6% |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 23.9% |
| Sean Tucker | 13.6% |
| Josh Williams | 5% |
What the offense looks like: Baker Mayfield is likely the QB of the future for Tampa & they are actively working to extend him. At its peak, it is a high powered offense that you want to own pieces of. This WR room has a void to fill with the departure of future HOF WR Mike Evans. Godwin is aging, & Egbuka COULD become a true WR1. OR McMillan, Johnson, or Hurst could break out and establish themselves as low end WR2/WR3 types. All of them can't win, but someone will. This RB room is confusing and Tampa has recently run a committee. Unclear if that is because Bucky was hurt in 2025 but he didnt have a single carry inside the 5 yard line the entire season. This makes me think Kenneth Gainwell will see significantly more playing time than many people realize. Sean Tucker MAY end up keeping the goalline role as well. We will find out.
Key additions: RB Kenneth Gainwell signed 2 year deal following IMPRESSIVE season in Pittsburgh as their RB2. Drafted WR Ted Hurst in the 3rd round. Extended TE Cade Otton. Hired new OC Zac Robinson from ATL.
Key departures: WR Mike Evans left to 49ers in free agency after entire career with Bucs. RB Rachaad White left to Commanders in free agency (RB2 and filled in when Irving was injured).
Notes: Emeka Egbuka is primed for a MASSIVE breakout if Baker Mayfield has strong 2026 season. Mike Evans left team in free agency for 49ers, opening up opportunity for Jalen McMillan & Tez Johnson & Ted Hurst 3rd round draft pick (young & productive WR). Chris Godwin aging & struggles to produce but could have decent low end WR2/WR3 role over next few years. Bucs signed Kenneth Gainwell in free agency who was HIGHLY productive in Pittsburgh. Strong concern for Bucky Irving owners. We will have to see how the RB split carries. Will get a better idea through the summer and camp. Worth note, if the Bucs do not perform well in 2026, Todd Bowles is going to get fired. Expect his best product or he's done.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Baker Mayfield returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (32.8 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.1 att/g; New OC Zac Robinson — pass rate and tempo may shift.
| Projected carry share | 57.6% |
| Projected carries per game | 12.9 |
| Projected carries, full season | 219 |
| Last season, carries per game | 17.3 |
That is a reduction of 4.4 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 27.2 rushing attempts a game.
Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.
Offensive environment: TB rates 23 against a league average of 23, exactly at it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -0.4 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | +2.9 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -2.7 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -5.3 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7 | Sean Tucker | +7.6 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -20.4% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Robinson | 2021 | 12.4 | 66% | -38.1% |
| Jeffery Wilson | 2020 | 12.9 | 60% | -32.9% |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2022 | 11.9 | 58% | -55.6% |
| Brian Robinson | 2024 | 11.4 | 57% | -26.2% |
| Devin Singletary | 2021 | 11.6 | 57% | -3.4% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 0 gained value, 5 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2024, round 4, pick 125 by TAM |
| College | Oregon |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 5′9″ |
| Weight | 192 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.55s |
| Vertical | 29.5″ |
| Broad jump | 115″ |
| Career PPR per game | 14.9 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.5 |
| Boom rate | 28.6% |
| Bust rate | 19% |
| Games missed per season | 3.5 |
| Injury history | Foot |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.3 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 4 against PHI — 25.5 PPR on 20 touches and a 12.8% target share, in a game that finished 25-31. His worst was Week 16 against CAR at 7.1, on 19 touches, final score 20-23. Across 10 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 1 time.
His usage that season was worth 16.5 points per game. He scored 13.85, 15.8% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL | 23-20 | 14.5 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 37 | 1 | 13.3% | 76% |
| 2 | HOU | 20-19 | 18.1 | 6 | 6 | 50 | 17 | 71 | 0 | 16.7% | 71% |
| 3 | NYJ | 29-27 | 13.9 | 4 | 4 | 33 | 25 | 66 | 0 | 13.8% | 74% |
| 4 | PHI | 25-31 | 25.5 | 5 | 5 | 102 | 15 | 63 | 1 | 12.8% | 61% |
| 13 | ARI | 20-17 | 16.1 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 17 | 61 | 1 | 7.7% | 52% |
| 14 | NO | 20-24 | 16.1 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 15 | 55 | 1 | 10.7% | 49% |
| 15 | ATL | 28-29 | 8.1 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 16 | 60 | 0 | 9.4% | 54% |
| 16 | CAR | 20-23 | 7.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 71 | 0 | 0% | 62% |
| 17 | MIA | 17-20 | 8.3 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 9 | 19 | 0 | 13.6% | 54% |
| 18 | CAR | 16-14 | 10.8 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 26 | 85 | 0 | 9.1% | 63% |
| Receptions | 30 |
| Targets | 35 |
| Receiving yards | 277 |
| Carries | 173 |
| Rushing yards | 588 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 13.85 |
| Yards per target | 7.91 |
| Catch rate | 85.71% |
| Yards per carry | 3.4 |
| Snap share | 61.6% |
| Target share | 10.71% |
| Air-yards share | -2.07% |
| WOPR | 0.145 |
| RACR | -3.863 |
| Average depth of target | -1.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 12 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -2.8 |
| Total YAC | 360 |
| Broken tackles | 6 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 128.2 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.88 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -3.56 |
| Red-zone targets | 4 |
| Red-zone target share | 5.6% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 28.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.74 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.26 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 1.36 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 18 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 4 of 49 |
| Target share | 16 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 41 of 49 |
The offense threw it 558 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Emeka Egbuka | 23.52% |
| Cade Otton | 15% |
| Mike Evans | 11.48% |
| Sterling Shepard | 9.81% |
| Chris Godwin | 9.44% |
| Rachaad White | 8.33% |
His best game was Week 13 against CAR — 27.5 PPR on 28 touches and a 8.8% target share, in a game that finished 26-23. His worst was Week 2 against DET at 2.2, on 7 touches, final score 20-16. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 13.7; in the 9 decided by more, 15. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 12.7 points per game. He scored 14.38, 14.3% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 1 against 2.49 expected, a gap of -1.5.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WAS | 37-20 | 9.6 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 9 | 62 | 0 | 10% | 31% |
| 2 | DET | 20-16 | 2.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 22 | 0 | 0% | 35% |
| 3 | DEN | 7-26 | 11.4 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 9 | 70 | 0 | 9.4% | 32% |
| 4 | PHI | 33-16 | 12.5 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 49 | 1 | 4.3% | 42% |
| 5 | ATL | 30-36 | 5.6 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 44 | 0 | 8.3% | 43% |
| 6 | NO | 51-27 | 18.5 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 14 | 81 | 1 | 5.6% | 64% |
| 7 | BAL | 31-41 | 16.7 | 3 | 3 | 54 | 9 | 23 | 1 | 6.7% | 35% |
| 8 | ATL | 26-31 | 15.4 | 7 | 7 | 40 | 9 | 44 | 0 | 15.2% | 42% |
| 9 | KC | 24-30 | 6.4 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 24 | 0 | 9.7% | 35% |
| 10 | SF | 20-23 | 17.7 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 13 | 73 | 1 | 10.3% | 46% |
| 12 | NYG | 30-7 | 27.2 | 6 | 6 | 64 | 12 | 88 | 1 | 20% | 52% |
| 13 | CAR | 26-23 | 27.5 | 3 | 3 | 33 | 25 | 152 | 1 | 8.8% | 54% |
| 14 | LV | 28-13 | 2.8 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 3.6% | 16% |
| 15 | LAC | 40-17 | 13.3 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 15 | 117 | 0 | 7.7% | 44% |
| 16 | DAL | 24-26 | 18.2 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 68 | 1 | 7% | 57% |
| 17 | CAR | 48-14 | 23 | 4 | 4 | 77 | 20 | 113 | 0 | 12.5% | 55% |
| 18 | NO | 27-19 | 16.4 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 19 | 89 | 1 | 16.1% | 72% |
| Receptions | 47 |
| Targets | 52 |
| Receiving yards | 392 |
| Carries | 207 |
| Rushing yards | 1,122 |
| Touchdowns | 8 |
| Points per game | 14.38 |
| Yards per target | 7.54 |
| Catch rate | 90.38% |
| Yards per carry | 5.42 |
| Snap share | 44.41% |
| Target share | 9.13% |
| Air-yards share | -4.6% |
| WOPR | 0.105 |
| RACR | -1.357 |
| Average depth of target | -2.7 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 11.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -2.9 |
| Total YAC | 528 |
| Broken tackles | 6 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 98.1 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.86 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 1.23 |
| Red-zone targets | 9 |
| Red-zone target share | 10.6% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 52.5% |
| Goal-line carry share | 53.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.49 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.49 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 8 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 19 of 46 |
| Yards per target | 6 of 46 |
| Target share | 24 of 46 |
| Air-yards share | 45 of 46 |
The offense threw it 571 times. He took 9.24% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Mike Evans | 19.54% |
| Cade Otton | 15.45% |
| Chris Godwin | 11.01% |
| Jalen McMillan | 10.3% |
| Rachaad White | 10.12% |
| Bucky Irving ← | 9.24% |
7 of his 17 games were blowouts, 47.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 16.5 in those and 13.68 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
Ask the Coach about Bucky Irving →