Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 8.53 points per game in 2025, usage worth 7.4.
Our board has him at 210.9 points, 12.9 per game — 69.5 catches, 937 yards, 6 TDs. That is WR3, 48 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 9.6 points per game to a ceiling of 19, with the median at 12.9. Boom rate 47%, bust rate 25%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
Chicago Bears returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing oc. Caleb Williams at quarterback, Ben Johnson as head coach, Press Taylor calling it. The offense projects to 33.6 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 28.4 rushes.
In: Kalif Raymond (wr3), Zavion Thomas (wr5), JP Richardson (wr6), Alexander Maurice (wr7), Sam Roush (te2). Out: DJ Moore (wr2), Luther Burden (wr3), Olamide Zaccheaus (wr4), Travis Homer (rb3), Cole Kmet (te2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 10.8%, with a bear case of 9.1% and a bull case of 12.7% and a full range of 6% to 13.7%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Rome Odunze | 18.5% |
| Colston Loveland | 16.8% |
| Luther Burden III ← | 10.8% |
| D'Andre Swift | 9.4% |
| Zavion Thomas | 8.9% |
| Sam Roush | 7.9% |
What the offense looks like: Whoever emerges as Caleb Williams primary target will be an ELITE fantasy asset to own. We still do not know with 100% certainy who that will be. You may think it would be Rome Odunze, but Luther Burden III has shown a TON of promise. There is room for both of these young WR to eat, but Colston Loveland may be the real beneficiary of the additional targets. he looks like a true star. RB room is likely a 1A/1B for the foreseable future. Both Swift and Monangai see their value skyrocket if the other gets hurt.
Key additions: Bears added WR Kalif Raymond from Lions (expected to operate as WR3 because Ben Johnson loves him). Drafted Rookie WR Zavion Thomas 3rd round. Drafted TE Sam Roush RD 3.
Key departures: Biggest 2 losses C Drew Dalman retired unexpectedly & LT Ozzy Trapilo suffered serious knee injury sidelining him the entire 2026 season. WR DJ Moore traded to Bills for a 2nd round pick. WR Olamide Zaccheaus also left Chicago this offseason. Opening up a massive target opportunity for Bears pass catchers.
Notes: Strong disagreement who the WR1 will be in 2026. Odunze looked fantastic early in 2025, but Burden stole the show in the back half of the season. Loveland has emerged as Williams favorite target. Caleb Williams is set to have an excellent season again. RB room looks to remain the same with Swift 1A & Monangai 1B. Bears drafted TE Sam Roush in the 3rd round. Cole Kmet may be traded. Highly relevant fantasty offense.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Caleb Williams returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (33.7 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.6 att/g; New OC Press Taylor — pass rate and tempo may shift.
29 historical comps for WRs age ~?, prior share 13.4%, team change, OC change. Distribution: median 10.9%, p25-p75 [8.6%, 13.5%], tails [4.5%, 14.9%]. Closest comps: Mecole Hardman 2022→2023 (KC→NYJ: 11.2%→9.7%); K.J. Osborn 2023→2024 (MIN→NE: 13.7%→11.0%); JuJu Smith-Schuster 2023→2024 (NE→KC: 14.2%→7.3%).
arrival self-anchored 21% to own 13.4% role (1yr)
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: CHI rates 24.9 against a league average of 23, 1.9 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -3.3 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | -8 · harder |
| Weeks 12–17 | +1.4 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -4.5 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2 | D.J. Moore | +14 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.J. Hamler | 2020 | 7.5 | 75% | -26.8% |
| Elijah Moore | 2022 | 6.3 | 72% | +0.2% |
| Michael Pittman | 2020 | 7.6 | 71% | +27.5% |
| Treylon Burks | 2022 | 8 | 70% | -21.2% |
| George Pickens | 2022 | 9.8 | 69% | +17.2% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 2 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2025, round 2, pick 39 by CHI |
| College | Missouri |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| Height | 6′0″ |
| Weight | 206 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.41s |
His best game was Week 17 against SF — 27.8 PPR on 9 targets and a 23.1% target share, in a game that finished 38-42. His worst was Week 1 against MIN at 0.7, on 1 targets, final score 24-27. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 9; in the 6 decided by more, 7.9. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 7.4 points per game. He scored 8.53, 10.8% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 0 against 1.4 expected, a gap of -1.4.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 24-27 | 0.7 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 2.9% | — |
| 2 | DET | 21-52 | 1.5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 6.1% | — |
| 3 | DAL | 31-14 | 19.8 | 3 | 3 | 101 | 1 | 10.7% | — |
| 4 | LV | 25-24 | 1.6 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 0 | 5.6% | — |
| 6 | WAS | 25-24 | 9.1 | 4 | 4 | 51 | 0 | 13.8% | — |
| 7 | NO | 26-14 | 3.1 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 8% | — |
| 8 | BAL | 16-30 | 0.9 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 2.9% | — |
| 10 | NYG | 24-20 | 8.1 | 3 | 3 | 51 | 0 | 8.3% | — |
| 11 | MIN | 19-17 | 5.7 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 17.9% | — |
| 12 | PIT | 31-28 | 9.1 | 3 | 5 | 46 | 0 | 16.7% | — |
| 13 | PHI | 24-15 | 7.6 | 4 | 6 | 33 | 0 | 18.8% | — |
| 14 | GB | 21-28 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 67 | 0 | 21.4% | — |
| 15 | CLE | 31-3 | 14.4 | 6 | 7 | 84 | 0 | 25.9% | — |
| 17 | SF | 38-42 | 27.8 | 8 | 9 | 138 | 1 | 23.1% | — |
| 18 | DET | 16-19 | 7.5 | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 13.8% | — |
| Receptions | 47 |
| Targets | 60 |
| Receiving yards | 652 |
| Carries | 6 |
| Rushing yards | 37 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 8.53 |
| Yards per target | 10.87 |
| Catch rate | 78.33% |
| Yards per carry | 6.17 |
| Target share | 13.06% |
| Air-yards share | 10.75% |
| WOPR | 0.271 |
| RACR | 1.209 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.01 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.15 |
| Red-zone targets | 7 |
| Red-zone target share | 8.8% |
| End-zone target share | 2.9% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.4 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.4 |
The offense threw it 574 times. He took 11.32% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Rome Odunze | 16.98% |
| D.J. Moore | 16.04% |
| Colston Loveland | 15.47% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 12.26% |
| Luther Burden III ← | 11.32% |
| D'Andre Swift | 9.06% |
3 of his 15 games were blowouts, 27.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 11.9 in those and 8.96 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
Ask the Coach about Luther Burden III →