Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 14.65 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 76.1, usage worth 10.
25 years old · 3 seasons of experience · 2023 draft class
| SLEEPER | 66.7 |
| ESPN | 100.3 |
| YAHOO | 61.2 |
| UNDERDOG | 78.3 |
| CBS | 76.3 |
| FFA | 74 |
| Goes around | Round 7, pick 4 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | TE8 |
| Bye week | 11 |
| ADP standard deviation | 17.3 picks |
Our board has him at 171 points, 11.3 per game — 60.8 catches, 814 yards, 4.8 TDs. That is TE2, 74 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 8.7 points per game to a ceiling of 15.2, with the median at 11.3. Boom rate 35%, bust rate 23%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 76.1 on consensus and our board has him 74. Those agree, so there is no market disagreement to exploit. The question is whether you want the profile, not whether it is mispriced.
coming off an in-season torn ACL; was statistically the #1 tight end in fantasy (by nearly two points/game) at the moment he got hurt, on a touchdown rate relative to his volume that's unlikely to fully repeat. Explicit framing: if negative injury-timeline news drops his ADP further, that's a buying opportunity, not a reason to avoid him — the news would already be priced in, and then some.
buy · medium conviction · 2026-08Green Bay Packers returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1. Jordan Love at quarterback, Matt LaFleur as head coach, Adam Stenavich calling it. The offense projects to 30.2 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 28.2 rushes.
In: Skyy Moore (wr6), Will Sheppard (wr7), MarShawn Lloyd (rb3), Pierre Strong Jr. (rb4). Out: Romeo Doubs (wr1), Emmanuel Wilson (rb2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 13.1%, with a bear case of 11.3% and a bull case of 15.2% and a full range of 10.2% to 16.5%. That comes from 25 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Christian Watson | 17.4% |
| Jayden Reed | 17% |
| Matthew Golden | 13.9% |
| Tucker Kraft ← | 13.1% |
| Josh Jacobs | 9.7% |
| Luke Musgrave | 8.3% |
Key additions: Drafted Jager Burton C in the 5th round, extended Jayden Reed on 3 year deal.
Key departures: Rasheed Walker starting O lineman left to Panthers. RB Emmanuel Wilson left, opening up backup and 3rd down back role for another RB to fill the gap. Romeo Doubs to New England Patriots, Wicks to Eagles. Massive opportunity for Watson, Golden, and Reed. We will have to see who plays the most on 2 WR sets.
Notes: Key departures: Romeo Doubs to New England Patriots, Wicks to Eagles. Massive opportunity for Watson, Golden, and Reed. We will have to see who plays the most on 2 WR sets. Reed landed 3 year 50m extension with packers. Golden could be primed for a breakout. Kraft should be recovered from torn ACL early in the season & Musgrave will fill in if he misses time but no true upside to him. Savion Williams will compete for WR4 but it is unlikely he holds any true value. Jordan Love needs to stay healthy but could be primed for a great 2026 season. Josh Jacobs is showing signs for concern with efficiency & managers need to think about him, however, packers have not brought in any competition so in the meantime he should be ok. The departure of Emmanuel Wilson to Seattle should not be underlooked. He was a highly productive back up RB & could open the door for a healthy Josh Jacobs to return to his peak form briefly. AND another RB will assume a very potentially productive handcuff opportunity.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Jordan Love returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (28.8 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 30.2 att/g.
25 historical comps for TEs age ~24, prior share 14.2%, same team, OC continuity. Distribution: median 13.9%, p25-p75 [9.8%, 17.2%], tails [7.8%, 19.7%]. Closest comps: Tucker Kraft 2024→2025 (GB: 14.2%→19.0%); Isaiah Likely 2024→2025 (BAL: 13.3%→13.1%); Cade Otton 2024→2025 (TB: 15.6%→17.4%). Adjustment: -5% from td_luck_breakout (TD regression risk)
self-anchored 45% to own 14.2% role (2yr), 55% to comp median 13.9%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: GB rates 24.6 against a league average of 23, 1.6 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -1.7 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | +5 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -4.9 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +1.1 · neutral |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full Tucker Kraft study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +64.4% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, TEs crash the following year 47% of the time (hold 53%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 47% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.3 elite seasons and 2.3 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dawson Knox | 2021 | 10.9 | 67% | -19.9% |
| Dalton Schultz | 2021 | 12.3 | 66% | +4.6% |
| Cade Otton | 2024 | 10 | 64% | -15.8% |
| T.J. Hockenson | 2021 | 12.1 | 64% | -6.2% |
| T.J. Hockenson | 2022 | 12.8 | 63% | +30% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2023, round 3, pick 78 by GNB |
| College | South Dakota St. |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 6′5″ |
| Weight | 254 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.69s |
| Vertical | 34″ |
| Broad jump | 122″ |
| 3-cone | 7.08s |
| Shuttle | 4.29s |
| Career PPR per game | 10.1 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.7 |
| Boom rate | 16.7% |
| Bust rate | 16.7% |
| Games missed per season | 0 |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.33 |
His best game was Week 8 against PIT — 33.3 PPR on 9 targets and a 25.7% target share, in a game that finished 35-25. His worst was Week 9 against CAR at 4, on 3 targets, final score 13-16. Across 8 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 4 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 9.3; in the 4 decided by more, 20. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 10 points per game. He scored 14.65, 46.7% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 5 against 2.22 expected, a gap of 2.8.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | 27-13 | 9.9 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 1 | 18.2% | 92% |
| 2 | WAS | 27-18 | 24.4 | 6 | 7 | 124 | 1 | 25.9% | 91% |
| 3 | CLE | 10-13 | 5.9 | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 16% | 88% |
| 4 | DAL | 40-40 | 10.6 | 5 | 5 | 56 | 0 | 13.9% | 95% |
| 6 | CIN | 27-18 | 12.3 | 2 | 2 | 43 | 1 | 7.7% | 92% |
| 7 | ARI | 27-23 | 16.8 | 5 | 10 | 58 | 1 | 35.7% | 89% |
| 8 | PIT | 35-25 | 33.3 | 7 | 9 | 143 | 2 | 25.7% | 92% |
| 9 | CAR | 13-16 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 8.6% | 49% |
| Receptions | 32 |
| Targets | 44 |
| Receiving yards | 489 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | 3 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 14.65 |
| Yards per target | 11.11 |
| Catch rate | 72.73% |
| Yards per carry | 3 |
| Snap share | 86% |
| Target share | 18.96% |
| Air-yards share | 9.59% |
| WOPR | 0.35 |
| RACR | 8.947 |
| Average depth of target | 4.7 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 10.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 4.5 |
| Total YAC | 344 |
| Broken tackles | 6 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 148.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 4.89 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.09 |
| Red-zone targets | 12 |
| Red-zone target share | 16.7% |
| End-zone target share | 8.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.22 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 5 |
| Receiving TD luck | 2.78 |
The offense threw it 489 times. He took 9.57% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Romeo Doubs | 18.48% |
| Christian Watson | 11.96% |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 10% |
| Josh Jacobs | 9.57% |
| Tucker Kraft ← | 9.57% |
| Matthew Golden | 9.57% |
His best game was Week 5 against LA — 24.8 PPR on 5 targets and a 20% target share, in a game that finished 24-19. His worst was Week 11 against CHI at 0, on 1 targets, final score 20-19. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 10.8; in the 7 decided by more, 7.8. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 7.4 points per game. He scored 9.61, 29.5% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 6 against 3.1 expected, a gap of 2.9.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | 29-34 | 5.7 | 2 | 3 | 37 | 0 | 9.4% | 96% |
| 2 | IND | 16-10 | 3.6 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 15.4% | 80% |
| 3 | TEN | 30-14 | 4.4 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 15.8% | 67% |
| 4 | MIN | 29-31 | 17.3 | 6 | 9 | 53 | 1 | 16.7% | 86% |
| 5 | LA | 24-19 | 24.8 | 4 | 5 | 88 | 2 | 20% | 85% |
| 6 | ARI | 34-13 | 3.5 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 12.9% | 82% |
| 7 | HOU | 24-22 | 12.3 | 3 | 4 | 33 | 1 | 12.1% | 95% |
| 8 | JAX | 30-27 | 16.8 | 3 | 3 | 78 | 1 | 11.1% | 84% |
| 9 | DET | 14-24 | 7.6 | 4 | 6 | 34 | 0 | 16.2% | 100% |
| 11 | CHI | 20-19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5.9% | 93% |
| 12 | SF | 38-10 | 10.6 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 1 | 9.1% | 79% |
| 13 | MIA | 30-17 | 13.8 | 6 | 7 | 78 | 0 | 25% | 91% |
| 14 | DET | 31-34 | 13.1 | 3 | 5 | 41 | 1 | 26.3% | 88% |
| 15 | SEA | 30-13 | 5.4 | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 7.7% | 89% |
| 16 | NO | 34-0 | 9.5 | 3 | 4 | 63 | 0 | 14.8% | 62% |
| 17 | MIN | 25-27 | 7.3 | 2 | 3 | 53 | 0 | 10.3% | 86% |
| 18 | CHI | 22-24 | 7.6 | 4 | 7 | 36 | 0 | 28% | 95% |
| Receptions | 50 |
| Targets | 70 |
| Receiving yards | 707 |
| Carries | 3 |
| Rushing yards | 6 |
| Touchdowns | 7 |
| Points per game | 9.61 |
| Yards per target | 10.1 |
| Catch rate | 71.43% |
| Yards per carry | 2 |
| Snap share | 85.76% |
| Target share | 15.1% |
| Air-yards share | 8.95% |
| WOPR | 0.29 |
| RACR | 4.458 |
| Average depth of target | 5.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 9.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 5 |
| Total YAC | 456 |
| Broken tackles | 9 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 131.1 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.19 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.19 |
| Red-zone targets | 16 |
| Red-zone target share | 20.8% |
| End-zone target share | 16.7% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.1 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 6 |
| Receiving TD luck | 2.9 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.04 |
The offense threw it 479 times. He took 15.12% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Dontayvion Wicks | 16.41% |
| Jayden Reed | 16.2% |
| Romeo Doubs | 15.55% |
| Tucker Kraft ← | 15.12% |
| Christian Watson | 11.45% |
| Josh Jacobs | 9.29% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 14 | 58 | 10.55 | 10.88 | 14.11% |
| Malik Willis | 3 | 12 | 5.2 | 6.33 | 19.73% |
4 of his 17 games were blowouts, 17.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.25 in those and 10.85 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 15 against TB — 15.7 PPR on 6 targets and a 16.7% target share, in a game that finished 20-34. His worst was Week 9 against LA at 0, on 0 targets, final score 20-3. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 5.5; in the 5 decided by more, 5.8. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 7.1 points per game. He scored 5.61, 8.5% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | DET | 20-34 | 2.5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 5.9% | 23% |
| 5 | LV | 13-17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 40% |
| 7 | DEN | 17-19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 50% |
| 8 | MIN | 10-24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 28% |
| 9 | LA | 20-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 39% |
| 10 | PIT | 19-23 | 1.6 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 8.1% | 51% |
| 11 | LAC | 23-20 | 5.2 | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 | 5.3% | 42% |
| 12 | DET | 29-22 | 9.5 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 1 | 6.7% | 96% |
| 13 | KC | 27-19 | 6.7 | 3 | 6 | 37 | 0 | 17.1% | 95% |
| 14 | NYG | 22-24 | 10.4 | 4 | 4 | 64 | 0 | 10.5% | 100% |
| 15 | TB | 20-34 | 15.7 | 4 | 6 | 57 | 1 | 16.7% | 95% |
| 16 | CAR | 33-30 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 60 | 0 | 23.1% | 92% |
| 17 | MIN | 33-10 | 10.8 | 6 | 6 | 48 | 0 | 17.6% | 82% |
| 18 | CHI | 17-9 | 6.1 | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 9.4% | 90% |
| Receptions | 31 |
| Targets | 40 |
| Receiving yards | 355 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 5.61 |
| Yards per target | 8.88 |
| Catch rate | 77.5% |
| Snap share | 65.93% |
| Target share | 8.6% |
| Air-yards share | 4.23% |
| WOPR | 0.158 |
| RACR | 1.72 |
| Average depth of target | 3.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7.5 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 4 |
| Total YAC | 232 |
| Broken tackles | 4 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 120.3 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.27 |
| Red-zone targets | 11 |
| Red-zone target share | 9.9% |
| End-zone target share | 2.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.45 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.55 |
The offense threw it 581 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Romeo Doubs | 17.11% |
| Jayden Reed | 16.76% |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 10.34% |
| Christian Watson | 9.45% |
| Luke Musgrave | 8.2% |
| Aaron Jones | 7.66% |
2 of his 14 games were blowouts, 13.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5.4 in those and 5.5 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about Tucker Kraft →