Charts· WR regression watch

PPR points over expected (2026, Weeks 1–9), min. 45 targets

42 WRs with 45+ targets, ranked by PPR over expected per game through Week 9 of 2026. Top: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+6.2), Tee Higgins (+5.1) and Christian Watson (+5.0). Bottom: Michael Wilson (-5.6), DK Metcalf (-4.5) and Emeka Egbuka (-2.5).

Expected = every carry and target priced by field position and depth

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42WRs ranked

1–9weeks of 2026

45min. targets

+6.2#1 Jaxon Smith-Njigba

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42 WRs · 2215 characters

WR REGRESSION WATCH

PPR points over expected (2026, Weeks 1–9), min. 45 targets

1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) +6.2 (19.6 exp, 25.7 act)
2. Tee Higgins (CIN) +5.1 (14.9 exp, 20.0 act)
3. Christian Watson (GB) +5.0 (14.9 exp, 19.9 act)
4. Ja'Marr Chase (CIN) +3.6 (16.3 exp, 20.0 act)
5. Zay Flowers (BAL) +2.9 (13.1 exp, 15.9 act)
6. Luther Burden III (CHI) +2.7 (12.9 exp, 15.6 act)
7. Puka Nacua (LAR) +2.4 (22.7 exp, 25.1 act)
8. Jameson Williams (DET) +2.1 (11.1 exp, 13.2 act)
9. DeMario Douglas (NE) +2.0 (8.9 exp, 10.9 act)
10. Davante Adams (LAR) +1.6 (15.4 exp, 17.0 act)
11. Tre Tucker (LV) +1.0 (11.1 exp, 12.1 act)
12. Parker Washington (JAX) +1.0 (12.7 exp, 13.7 act)
13. Stefon Diggs (WAS) +0.8 (12.1 exp, 12.9 act)
14. CeeDee Lamb (DAL) +0.8 (21.6 exp, 22.4 act)
15. Drake London (ATL) +0.8 (12.5 exp, 13.3 act)
16. Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) +0.6 (19.1 exp, 19.7 act)
17. Jalen Coker (CAR) +0.6 (11.9 exp, 12.6 act)
18. Justin Jefferson (MIN) +0.5 (12.8 exp, 13.3 act)
19. Garrett Wilson (NYJ) +0.4 (13.8 exp, 14.2 act)
20. Ryan Flournoy (DAL) +0.0 (9.3 exp, 9.3 act)
21. KC Concepcion (CLE) -0.1 (10.2 exp, 10.0 act)
22. Tetairoa McMillan (CAR) -0.2 (16.0 exp, 15.8 act)
23. Wan'Dale Robinson (TEN) -0.4 (10.3 exp, 9.9 act)
24. Devaughn Vele (NO) -0.5 (11.6 exp, 11.2 act)
25. Chris Olave (NO) -0.5 (18.2 exp, 17.7 act)
26. George Pickens (DAL) -0.7 (13.7 exp, 13.0 act)
27. Malik Nabers (NYG) -0.8 (17.0 exp, 16.2 act)
28. Rome Odunze (CHI) -0.8 (10.9 exp, 10.1 act)
29. Matthew Golden (GB) -0.9 (18.9 exp, 18.0 act)
30. Denzel Boston (CLE) -1.0 (12.2 exp, 11.2 act)
31. Carnell Tate (TEN) -1.0 (12.7 exp, 11.6 act)
32. Malik Washington (MIA) -1.1 (10.8 exp, 9.7 act)
33. Makai Lemon (PHI) -1.2 (9.4 exp, 8.2 act)
34. Jaylen Waddle (DEN) -1.2 (9.9 exp, 8.7 act)
35. Xavier Worthy (KC) -1.6 (9.9 exp, 8.3 act)
36. Keenan Allen (SF) -1.7 (11.9 exp, 10.1 act)
37. Xavier Hutchinson (HOU) -2.1 (10.4 exp, 8.3 act)
38. Courtland Sutton (DEN) -2.3 (9.4 exp, 7.1 act)
39. Josh Downs (KC) -2.4 (10.7 exp, 8.3 act)
40. Emeka Egbuka (TB) -2.5 (13.7 exp, 11.1 act)
41. DK Metcalf (PIT) -4.5 (14.2 exp, 9.7 act)
42. Michael Wilson (ARI) -5.6 (19.0 exp, 13.4 act)

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Every WR on the chart

The whole ranking, 42 players: the chart shows the top and the bottom of it.

#	Player	Team	PPR over expected per game
1	Jaxon Smith-Njigba19.6 exp, 25.7 act	SEA	+6.2
2	Tee Higgins14.9 exp, 20.0 act	CIN	+5.1
3	Christian Watson14.9 exp, 19.9 act	GB	+5.0
4	Ja'Marr Chase16.3 exp, 20.0 act	CIN	+3.6
5	Zay Flowers13.1 exp, 15.9 act	BAL	+2.9
6	Luther Burden III12.9 exp, 15.6 act	CHI	+2.7
7	Puka Nacua22.7 exp, 25.1 act	LAR	+2.4
8	Jameson Williams11.1 exp, 13.2 act	DET	+2.1
9	DeMario Douglas8.9 exp, 10.9 act	NE	+2.0
10	Davante Adams15.4 exp, 17.0 act	LAR	+1.6
11	Tre Tucker11.1 exp, 12.1 act	LV	+1.0
12	Parker Washington12.7 exp, 13.7 act	JAX	+1.0
13	Stefon Diggs12.1 exp, 12.9 act	WAS	+0.8
14	CeeDee Lamb21.6 exp, 22.4 act	DAL	+0.8
15	Drake London12.5 exp, 13.3 act	ATL	+0.8
16	Amon-Ra St. Brown19.1 exp, 19.7 act	DET	+0.6
17	Jalen Coker11.9 exp, 12.6 act	CAR	+0.6
18	Justin Jefferson12.8 exp, 13.3 act	MIN	+0.5
19	Garrett Wilson13.8 exp, 14.2 act	NYJ	+0.4
20	Ryan Flournoy9.3 exp, 9.3 act	DAL	+0.0
21	KC Concepcion10.2 exp, 10.0 act	CLE	-0.1
22	Tetairoa McMillan16.0 exp, 15.8 act	CAR	-0.2
23	Wan'Dale Robinson10.3 exp, 9.9 act	TEN	-0.4
24	Devaughn Vele11.6 exp, 11.2 act	NO	-0.5
25	Chris Olave18.2 exp, 17.7 act	NO	-0.5
26	George Pickens13.7 exp, 13.0 act	DAL	-0.7
27	Malik Nabers17.0 exp, 16.2 act	NYG	-0.8
28	Rome Odunze10.9 exp, 10.1 act	CHI	-0.8
29	Matthew Golden18.9 exp, 18.0 act	GB	-0.9
30	Denzel Boston12.2 exp, 11.2 act	CLE	-1.0
31	Carnell Tate12.7 exp, 11.6 act	TEN	-1.0
32	Malik Washington10.8 exp, 9.7 act	MIA	-1.1
33	Makai Lemon9.4 exp, 8.2 act	PHI	-1.2
34	Jaylen Waddle9.9 exp, 8.7 act	DEN	-1.2
35	Xavier Worthy9.9 exp, 8.3 act	KC	-1.6
36	Keenan Allen11.9 exp, 10.1 act	SF	-1.7
37	Xavier Hutchinson10.4 exp, 8.3 act	HOU	-2.1
38	Courtland Sutton9.4 exp, 7.1 act	DEN	-2.3
39	Josh Downs10.7 exp, 8.3 act	KC	-2.4
40	Emeka Egbuka13.7 exp, 11.1 act	TB	-2.5
41	DK Metcalf14.2 exp, 9.7 act	PIT	-4.5
42	Michael Wilson19.0 exp, 13.4 act	ARI	-5.6

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Minimums scale with the season (QBs 15 attempts a week, RBs 8 carries, WRs 5 targets, TEs 3). Expected points price every carry and target by where it happened. Built from the same data as the Charts gallery; every chart saves as a 1080 × 1350 post.