TE · ARI · GWTTKB

Trey McBride — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 18.58 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 22.7, usage worth 18.1.

26 years old · 4 seasons of experience · 2022 draft class

Updated 2026-08-16 · free, no account, no paywall
Every figure below comes from our database. Where a stat is not held, the row is absent rather than zero.
ADP 22.7
Consensus across 4 books, standard deviation 3.6, 7.3 picks between cheapest and priciest. Cheapest on underdog, priciest on espn.
SLEEPER19.8
ESPN19.5
YAHOO24.5
UNDERDOG29.6
CBS26.8
FFA33

Draft-room facts

Goes aroundRound 2, pick 11 in a 12-team draft
Positional rankTE1
Bye week14
ADP standard deviation3.6 picks

What we project for 2026

Our board has him at 226.1 points, 14.9 per game — 93.3 catches, 914 yards, 6.9 TDs. That is TE1, 33 overall.

The range runs from a floor of 12.3 points per game to a ceiling of 24.2, with the median at 14.9. Boom rate 62%, bust rate 17%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.

He goes at 22.7 on consensus and our board has him 33. We rank him 10.3 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.

Our written view

Mid-2nd is too rich given the Cardinals' worst regular-season schedule and late-season tank risk (young injured players held out). Prefer Bowers/Loveland; only interested if he slides to the late 3rd.

fade · high conviction · 2026-06-05

The offense he plays in, 2026

Arizona Cardinals returns 2 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1, rb1, hc, oc. Jacoby Brissett at quarterback, Mike LaFleur as head coach, Nathaniel Hackett calling it. The offense projects to 31.9 pass attempts a game at low confidence and 24.8 rushes.

In: Carson Beck (qb), Carson Beck (qb2), Gardner Minshew II (qb2), Kendrick Bourne (wr3), Devin Duvernay (wr5), Reggie Virgil (wr6), Jeremiyah Love (rb1), Tyler Allgeier (rb2). Out: Kyler Murray (qb), Greg Dortch (wr3), Zay Jones (wr4), Jalen Brooks (wr6), Emari Demercado (rb2), Michael Carter (rb3).

His own projected target share for 2026 is 21.8%, with a bear case of 21% and a bull case of 22.9% and a full range of 20.4% to 23.8%. That comes from 25 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.

The projected target split across the offense:

Trey McBride 21.8%
Marvin Harrison Jr14.4%
Michael Wilson13.9%
Jeremiyah Love10%
Elijah Higgins6.2%
James Conner6.1%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

What the offense looks like: The Cardinals have interesting pieces on their offense but the offensive line and lack of a franchise QB is holding them back. IF Arizona can figure out the QB position, player value across the board SHOULD explode (Mcbride already ballin). Jeremiyah Love COULD have a slower start in 2026 but is a candidate to have a top 10 PPR fantasy season 100%.

Key additions: Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame) RB drafted 1st round 3rd overall. drafted guard Chase Bisontis 2nd round (Texas A&M). Drafed Carson Beck QB Miami 3rd round. Drafted WR Reggie Virgil (Texas Tech) 5th round. Signed G Issac Seumalo to 3/$31M (starting O line). Signed Tyler Allgeier ATL RB to 2 year $12.25M deal. Signed Kendrick Bourne 2/$10M deal. Signed QB Gardner Minshew II 1/$8M. Signed Devin Duvernay WR on 1 year (kick returner most likely).

Key departures: Kyler Murray was cut & signed with Minnesota. WR3 Greg Dortch left to Detroit. RB4 Emari Demercado left in free agency.

Notes: Love arrives as 1.03 pick — immediate RB1 candidate. Mike LaFleur hired as new HC (Shanahan & McVay tree). OC is Nathaniel Hackett. Arizona signed Tyler Allgeier from Atlanta, will compete with James Conner for Backup. Expect Trey Benson COULD be traded or compete for backup. Cardinals drafted Carson Beck Round 3 of 2026 draft & MAY compete with Brissett who is looking for a new contract. Brissett likely week 1 starter. Michael Wilson MAY establish himself as a TRUE WR2 in 2026 (Trending in right direction). MHJ WR1 breakout candidate, but has yet to demonstrate consistency. If the O line does not improve, Jeremiyah Love will have a difficult rookie season similar to Ashton Jeanty in Las Vegas. Arizona will need better QB play for any players to have consistent weekly fantasy upside in 2026. It is possible Brissett can continue to support volume for McBride, but one of Michael Wilson or MHJ will have to benefit. Both cannot have high finishes most likely.

How the volume number was reached: New QB Jacoby Brissett, avg 28.8 att/g over 2025,2024; Regressed 65% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 31.9 att/g; New OC Nathaniel Hackett — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Mike LaFleur.

How that share projection was built

25 historical comps for TEs age ~25, prior share 26.8%, same team, OC change, QB change. Distribution: median 20.7%, p25-p75 [18.5%, 23.6%], tails [16.8%, 25.8%]. Closest comps: Brock Bowers 2024→2025 (LV: 25.5%→23.4%); Darren Waller 2020→2021 (LV: 27.4%→23.3%); Mark Andrews 2021→2022 (BAL: 25.7%→29.2%). Adjustment: flat from opportunity_breakout (volume must hold)

self-anchored 58% to own 26.8% role (3yr), 42% to comp median 20.7%

The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.

Offensive environment: ARI rates 19.1 against a league average of 23, 3.8 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season-0.8 · neutral
Weeks 1–6-0.5 · neutral
Weeks 12–17-0.8 · neutral
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)-1 · neutral

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

Read the full Trey McBride study →

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved +24.5% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.3 elite seasons and 2.3 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

PlayerSeasonTheir PPGSimilarityNext year
Mark Andrews202117.756%-12.5%
Mark Andrews202212.751%+12.1%
Travis Kelce202218.651%-0.5%
David Njoku202312.646%-7.9%
Travis Kelce202314.645%-31.2%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 3 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

02,0004,0006,0008,0002023202420252026
Monthly superflex value, 2022-03 to 2026-07. Up 306% across the series, peaking at 8,181.

The player

Draft capital and athletic profile

Drafted2022, round 2, pick 55 by ARI
CollegeColorado St.
Age at draft22
Height6′4″
Weight246 lb
Vertical33″
Broad jump117″

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game14.4
Week-to-week variation0.6
Boom rate26%
Bust rate10%
Games missed per season0.3
Injury historyConcussion
Correlation between his posted line and his actual score0.13

That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.

Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.

The record, season by season

2025 · ARI · 17 games

His best game was Week 15 against HOU — 37.4 PPR on 13 targets and a 34.2% target share, in a game that finished 20-40. His worst was Week 16 against ATL at 6.7, on 8 targets, final score 19-26. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 7 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 15.9; in the 7 decided by more, 22.4. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 18.1 points per game. He scored 18.58, 2.9% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 11 against 7.56 expected, a gap of 3.4.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1NO20-1312.16961031%97%
2CAR27-2213.86778028%91%
3SF15-1615.35843123.5%88%
4SEA20-2312.271152027.5%96%
5TEN21-229.15741023.3%90%
6IND27-3121.281172128.2%90%
7GB23-2729.4101374238.2%87%
9DAL27-1716.55955131%88%
10SEA22-4427.7913127129.5%84%
11SF22-4127.51011115119.6%89%
12JAX24-2716.991079021.7%88%
13TB17-2022.28982124.3%89%
14LA17-4510.85958020.5%97%
15HOU20-4037.41213134234.2%92%
16ATL19-266.74827027.6%96%
17CIN14-3723.6101376137.1%96%
18LA20-3713.57865028.6%95%

Production

Receptions126
Targets169
Receiving yards1,239
Touchdowns11
Points per game18.58
Yards per target7.33
Catch rate74.56%

Role

Snap share91.35%
Target share27.87%
Air-yards share24.59%
WOPR0.59
RACR1.192

Efficiency

Average depth of target6.8
Yards after catch per reception4.6
Yards before catch per reception5.2
Total YAC583
Broken tackles9
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted116.5
Receiving EPA per game4.28

Scoring position

Red-zone targets33
Red-zone target share32.4%
End-zone target share43.6%
Expected receiving TDs7.56
Actual receiving TDs11
Receiving TD luck3.44

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:

Points per game1 of 13
Yards per target7 of 13
Target share1 of 13
Air-yards share2 of 13

Who else ate

The offense threw it 648 times. He took 27.39% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Trey McBride 27.39%
Michael Wilson20.42%
Marvin Harrison11.83%
Michael Carter7.29%
Elijah Higgins6%
Greg Dortch5.35%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Jacoby Brissett1212721.127.5928.38%
Kyler Murray54212.56.5526.66%

Blowouts against close games

6 of his 17 games were blowouts, 44.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 23.42 in those and 15.89 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2024 · ARI · 16 games

His best game was Week 17 against LA — 30.3 PPR on 16 targets and a 35.6% target share, in a game that finished 9-13. His worst was Week 16 against CAR at 5, on 4 targets, final score 30-36. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 14.2; in the 8 decided by more, 16.3. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 16.3 points per game. He scored 15.24, 6.3% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 2 against 6.71 expected, a gap of -4.7.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1BUF28-3485930029%85%
2LA41-1012.76667028.6%83%
3DET13-205.53625017.6%85%
5SF24-2311.36953030%88%
6GB13-3417.68896025%93%
7LAC17-1510.15751028%95%
8MIA28-2721.4911124033.3%97%
9CHI29-912.73435121.1%90%
10NYJ31-611.14571020.8%71%
12SEA6-1625.31215133044.1%97%
13MIN22-2321.6121296027.9%94%
14SEA18-301471470036.8%94%
15NE30-1717.791087032.3%91%
16CAR30-3653420013.8%93%
17LA9-1330.31216123135.6%92%
18SF47-2419.571165134.4%89%

Production

Receptions111
Targets147
Receiving yards1,146
Carries1
Rushing yards2
Touchdowns3
Points per game15.24
Yards per target7.8
Catch rate75.51%
Yards per carry2

Role

Snap share89.81%
Target share28.64%
Air-yards share26.24%
WOPR0.614
RACR1.371

Efficiency

Average depth of target6.1
Yards after catch per reception4.6
Yards before catch per reception5.7
Total YAC513
Broken tackles5
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted99.2
Receiving EPA per game3.07
Rushing EPA per game0.04

Scoring position

Red-zone targets22
Red-zone target share32.8%
End-zone target share31%
Red-zone carry share1.3%
Goal-line carry share5.6%
Expected receiving TDs6.71
Actual receiving TDs2
Receiving TD luck-4.71
Expected rushing TDs0.42

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:

Points per game3 of 13
Yards per target6 of 13
Target share1 of 13
Air-yards share1 of 13

Who else ate

The offense threw it 543 times. He took 28.11% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Trey McBride 28.11%
Marvin Harrison22.18%
Michael Wilson13.58%
James Conner10.52%
Greg Dortch9.56%
Elijah Higgins4.59%

Blowouts against close games

5 of his 16 games were blowouts, 30.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 14.72 in those and 14.15 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2023 · ARI · 17 games

His best game was Week 8 against BAL — 25.5 PPR on 14 targets and a 38.9% target share, in a game that finished 24-31. His worst was Week 3 against DAL at 1.2, on 1 targets, final score 28-16. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 12.7; in the 10 decided by more, 9.3. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 10.8 points per game. He scored 10.68, 1% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1WAS16-204.3222306.7%37%
2NYG28-315.22332010.3%51%
3DAL28-161.211204.8%49%
4SF16-351.511502.4%27%
5CIN20-343.72317010%33%
6LA9-2610.24562013.2%58%
7SEA10-205.93629018.2%53%
8BAL24-3125.5101495138.9%82%
9CLE0-275.23522025%69%
10ATL25-2321.189131029%77%
11HOU16-219.35743024.1%100%
12LA14-37137960020.5%86%
13PIT24-1022.98989139.1%96%
15SF29-4520.21011102028.9%72%
16CHI16-279.16831021.6%97%
17PHI35-3110.86748022.6%88%
18SEA20-2112.43634120.7%97%

Production

Receptions81
Targets106
Receiving yards825
Touchdowns3
Points per game10.68
Yards per target7.78
Catch rate76.42%

Role

Snap share68.94%
Target share19.76%
Air-yards share17.99%
WOPR0.422
RACR1.584

Efficiency

Average depth of target6
Yards after catch per reception5.4
Yards before catch per reception4.8
Total YAC439
Broken tackles10
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted91.9
Receiving EPA per game0.58

Scoring position

Red-zone targets11
Red-zone target share18.3%
End-zone target share25%
Expected receiving TDs3.44
Actual receiving TDs3
Receiving TD luck-0.44

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:

Points per game8 of 14
Yards per target4 of 14
Target share7 of 14
Air-yards share6 of 14

Who else ate

The offense threw it 555 times. He took 19.63% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Trey McBride 19.63%
Marquise Brown18.7%
Rondale Moore11.48%
Michael Wilson10.74%
Zach Ertz7.96%
Greg Dortch7.59%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Joshua Dobbs8357.197.5713.06%
Kyler Murray86614.858.1525.81%
Clayton Tune155.24.425%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 17 games were blowouts, 16.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.47 in those and 12.66 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2022 · ARI · 12 games

His best game was Week 17 against ATL — 20.8 PPR on 10 targets and a 26.3% target share, in a game that finished 19-20. His worst was Week 8 against MIN at 0, on 0 targets, final score 26-34. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 5.3; in the 7 decided by more, 5. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 7.6 points per game. He scored 5.13, 10% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
4CAR26-165.4332409.7%42%
6SEA9-19000000%28%
7NO42-34000000%52%
8MIN26-34000000%26%
10LA27-171.711702.9%91%
11SF10-385.4441409.5%76%
12LAC24-251.1131011.1%79%
14NE13-275.83628014.6%73%
15DEN15-249.54555014.3%86%
16TB16-194.7341709.5%84%
17ATL19-2020.871078126.3%96%
18SF13-387.13341011.1%83%

Production

Receptions29
Targets39
Receiving yards265
Touchdowns1
Points per game5.13
Yards per target6.79
Catch rate74.36%

Role

Snap share68%
Target share9.08%
Air-yards share6.81%
WOPR0.182
RACR1.22

Efficiency

Average depth of target6.1
Yards after catch per reception4
Yards before catch per reception5.1
Total YAC117
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0.1%
Passer rating when targeted100.9
Receiving EPA per game0.64

Scoring position

Red-zone targets1
Red-zone target share1.5%
End-zone target share0%
Expected receiving TDs0.45
Actual receiving TDs1
Receiving TD luck0.55

Who else ate

The offense threw it 663 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Marquise Brown16.88%
DeAndre Hopkins15.14%
Zach Ertz10.88%
Greg Dortch10.09%
James Conner9.15%
Rondale Moore8.83%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 4 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Kyler Murray561.34.174.16%
Colt McCoy4165.66.510.32%
David Blough21313.959.1518.7%
Trace McSorley144.74.259.5%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 12 games were blowouts, 20.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.25 in those and 5.32 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

Ask the Coach about Trey McBride →
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