Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 16.75 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 31.6, usage worth 16.7.
26 years old · 4 seasons of experience · 2022 draft class
| SLEEPER | 29.4 |
| ESPN | 35.4 |
| YAHOO | 32.5 |
| UNDERDOG | 31.4 |
| CBS | 29 |
| FFA | 30 |
| Goes around | Round 3, pick 8 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR12 |
| Bye week | 8 |
| ADP standard deviation | 3 picks |
Our board has him at 231.9 points, 14.1 per game — 88.6 catches, 1,066 yards, 5.9 TDs. That is WR2, 30 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 9.8 points per game to a ceiling of 19.5, with the median at 14.1. Boom rate 38%, bust rate 31%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 31.6 on consensus and our board has him 30. Those agree, so there is no market disagreement to exploit. The question is whether you want the profile, not whether it is mispriced.
Mid-3rd; on a Shough-led pace of ~100/1400/13. Great situation — but if choosing between him and Etienne three picks earlier, take the RB.
buy · medium conviction · 2026-06-05New Orleans Saints returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing rb1. Tyler Shough at quarterback, Kellen Moore as head coach, Doug Nussmeier calling it. The offense projects to 34.1 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 25.9 rushes.
In: Jordyn Tyson (wr2), Bryce Lance (wr5), Barion Brown (wr6), Bub Means (wr7), Travis Etienne Jr. (rb1), Oscar Delp (te2). Out: Kevin Austin Jr (wr3), Brandin Cooks (wr4), Taysom Hill (te2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 22.1%, with a bear case of 22.3% and a bull case of 24.1% and a full range of 20.8% to 25.5%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Chris Olave ← | 22.1% |
| Jordyn Tyson | 18.6% |
| Juwan Johnson | 12.2% |
| Devaughn Vele | 8.3% |
| Oscar Delp | 7.1% |
| Barion Brown | 6.6% |
Key additions: signed RB Travis Etienne Jr in free agency on massive 4 year deal. Signed TE Noah Fant. Drafted TE oscar Delp. Drafted WR Jordyn Tyson 8th overall.
Key departures: No key departures
Notes: Saints draft Jordyn Tyson 8th overall. To start he will likely be the 1B in the offense behind Chris Olave. Hurts Olave potential, but Olave is highly talented WR. Shough surrounded with Weapons in New Orleans by signing Travis Etienne Jr. in free agency (lots of potential to be high producer). Alvin Kamara value is toast. Interested to see how Olave & Tyson split target share & if the rest of the offense other than Etienne holds fantasy value. Vele is a slept on and talented WR that could also break out in 2026. His breakout to slow down the Jordyn Tyson full breakout year 1.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Tyler Shough returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (34.4 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 34.1 att/g.
29 historical comps for WRs age ~25, prior share 27.5%, same team, OC continuity. Distribution: median 24.0%, p25-p75 [22.5%, 26.1%], tails [19.4%, 28.9%]. Closest comps: DK Metcalf 2022→2023 (SEA: 26.5%→22.5%); Allen Robinson 2020→2021 (CHI: 26.6%→20.0%); Odell Beckham 2020→2021 (CLE: 28.2%→18.2%). Adjustment: -8% from unsustainable_breakout (efficiency outlier)
self-anchored 45% to own 27.5% role (2yr), 55% to comp median 24.0%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: NO rates 21.4 against a league average of 23, 1.6 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +0.9 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | -0.3 · neutral |
| Weeks 12–17 | +1.6 · easier |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +5.4 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 3 | Cedrick Wilson | +8.1 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +26.5% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 2023 | 15.8 | 86% | -19% |
| A.J. Brown | 2022 | 17.6 | 74% | +23% |
| Garrett Wilson | 2024 | 14.8 | 73% | +4.8% |
| A.J. Brown | 2023 | 17 | 73% | +12.8% |
| Christian Kirk | 2022 | 14.2 | 70% | +11.6% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 4 gained value, 1 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2022, round 1, pick 11 by NOR |
| College | Ohio St. |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 6′0″ |
| Weight | 187 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.39s |
| Vertical | 32″ |
| Broad jump | 124″ |
| Career PPR per game | 14 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.5 |
| Boom rate | 16.3% |
| Bust rate | 16.3% |
| Games missed per season | 1.3 |
| Injury history | Hamstring, Concussion, Head |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.07 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 16 against NYJ — 36.8 PPR on 16 targets and a 34% target share, in a game that finished 29-6. His worst was Week 14 against TB at 6, on 5 targets, final score 24-20. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 5 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 15.2; in the 9 decided by more, 17.9. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 16.7 points per game. He scored 16.75, 0.6% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 5 against 3.23 expected, a gap of 1.8.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI | 13-20 | 12.4 | 7 | 13 | 54 | 0 | 31.7% | 85% |
| 2 | SF | 21-26 | 11.4 | 6 | 10 | 54 | 0 | 29.4% | 100% |
| 3 | SEA | 13-44 | 15.7 | 10 | 14 | 57 | 0 | 34.1% | 85% |
| 4 | BUF | 19-31 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 20 | 1 | 24% | 85% |
| 5 | NYG | 26-14 | 12.9 | 7 | 11 | 59 | 0 | 35.5% | 73% |
| 6 | NE | 19-25 | 15.8 | 6 | 10 | 98 | 0 | 38.5% | 88% |
| 7 | CHI | 14-26 | 26.8 | 5 | 7 | 98 | 2 | 22.6% | 84% |
| 8 | TB | 3-23 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 63 | 0 | 24% | 93% |
| 9 | LA | 10-34 | 8.7 | 3 | 4 | 57 | 0 | 16.7% | 88% |
| 10 | CAR | 17-7 | 21.4 | 5 | 8 | 104 | 1 | 30.8% | 54% |
| 12 | ATL | 10-24 | 16 | 9 | 13 | 70 | 0 | 30.2% | 80% |
| 13 | MIA | 17-21 | 14.7 | 4 | 7 | 47 | 1 | 20.6% | 88% |
| 14 | TB | 24-20 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 25% | 93% |
| 15 | CAR | 20-17 | 20.5 | 6 | 9 | 85 | 1 | 29% | 84% |
| 16 | NYJ | 29-6 | 36.8 | 10 | 16 | 148 | 2 | 34% | 78% |
| 17 | TEN | 34-26 | 25.9 | 8 | 11 | 119 | 1 | 40.7% | 91% |
| Receptions | 100 |
| Targets | 156 |
| Receiving yards | 1,163 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | -3 |
| Touchdowns | 9 |
| Points per game | 16.75 |
| Yards per target | 7.46 |
| Catch rate | 64.1% |
| Yards per carry | -3 |
| Snap share | 84.31% |
| Target share | 29.18% |
| Air-yards share | 41% |
| WOPR | 0.726 |
| RACR | 0.651 |
| Average depth of target | 11.8 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 2.9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8.7 |
| Total YAC | 289 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 95.1 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.23 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.08 |
| Red-zone targets | 15 |
| Red-zone target share | 29.4% |
| End-zone target share | 39.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.23 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 5 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.77 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 7 of 44 |
| Yards per target | 30 of 44 |
| Target share | 9 of 44 |
| Air-yards share | 4 of 44 |
The offense threw it 591 times. He took 27.71% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Chris Olave ← | 27.71% |
| Juwan Johnson | 18.12% |
| Rashid Shaheed | 11.72% |
| Alvin Kamara | 6.93% |
| Devaughn Vele | 6.93% |
| Brandin Cooks | 4.44% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough | 9 | 85 | 18.22 | 8.51 | 27.89% |
| Spencer Rattler | 7 | 71 | 14.86 | 6.2 | 30.83% |
4 of his 16 games were blowouts, 28.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 18.8 in those and 15.24 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 3 against PHI — 20.6 PPR on 6 targets and a 26.1% target share, in a game that finished 12-15. His worst was Week 6 against TB at -0.5, on 1 targets, final score 27-51. Across 8 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 3 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 13.2; in the 5 decided by more, 7.4. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 9.8 points per game. He scored 9.59, 1.7% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAR | 47-10 | 3.1 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 8.3% | 79% |
| 2 | DAL | 44-19 | 12.8 | 4 | 6 | 81 | 0 | 40% | 71% |
| 3 | PHI | 12-15 | 20.6 | 6 | 6 | 86 | 1 | 26.1% | 80% |
| 4 | ATL | 24-26 | 16.7 | 8 | 10 | 87 | 0 | 27.8% | 78% |
| 5 | KC | 13-26 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 12.5% | 94% |
| 6 | TB | 27-51 | -0.5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2.6% | 3% |
| 8 | LAC | 8-26 | 18.7 | 8 | 14 | 107 | 0 | 36.8% | 79% |
| 9 | CAR | 22-23 | 2.3 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 3.6% | 10% |
| Receptions | 32 |
| Targets | 44 |
| Receiving yards | 400 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | 7 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 9.59 |
| Yards per target | 9.09 |
| Catch rate | 72.73% |
| Yards per carry | 7 |
| Snap share | 61.75% |
| Target share | 19.71% |
| Air-yards share | 27.05% |
| WOPR | 0.486 |
| RACR | 1.174 |
| Average depth of target | 10.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8.7 |
| Total YAC | 121 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 89.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.19 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.11 |
| Red-zone targets | 6 |
| Red-zone target share | 14% |
| End-zone target share | 17.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.18 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.18 |
The offense threw it 551 times. He took 8.58% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Alvin Kamara | 17.35% |
| Juwan Johnson | 12.87% |
| Chris Olave ← | 8.58% |
| Foster Moreau | 8.38% |
| Rashid Shaheed | 7.99% |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 6.82% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 6 | 29 | 9.75 | 9.93 | 19.72% |
| Spencer Rattler | 2 | 15 | 9.1 | 7.47 | 19.7% |
4 of his 8 games were blowouts, 44.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8.53 in those and 13.2 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 16 against LA — 23.3 PPR on 13 targets and a 32.5% target share, in a game that finished 22-30. His worst was Week 4 against TB at 1.4, on 6 targets, final score 9-26. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 17.7; in the 7 decided by more, 10.2. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 14.8 points per game. He scored 14.46, 2.4% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 4 against 2.86 expected, a gap of 1.1.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEN | 16-15 | 19.2 | 8 | 10 | 112 | 0 | 30.3% | 78% |
| 2 | CAR | 20-17 | 14.6 | 6 | 11 | 86 | 0 | 32.4% | 79% |
| 3 | GB | 17-18 | 18.4 | 8 | 11 | 104 | 0 | 32.4% | 80% |
| 4 | TB | 9-26 | 1.4 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 15.8% | 82% |
| 5 | NE | 34-0 | 9.2 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 20% | 79% |
| 6 | HOU | 13-20 | 16.6 | 7 | 10 | 96 | 0 | 21.7% | 88% |
| 7 | JAX | 24-31 | 12.7 | 7 | 15 | 57 | 0 | 28.3% | 81% |
| 8 | IND | 38-27 | 9.6 | 5 | 9 | 46 | 0 | 31% | 74% |
| 9 | CHI | 24-17 | 16.6 | 6 | 8 | 46 | 1 | 25% | 71% |
| 10 | MIN | 19-27 | 21.4 | 6 | 9 | 94 | 1 | 22.5% | 81% |
| 12 | ATL | 15-24 | 18.4 | 7 | 9 | 114 | 0 | 24.3% | 47% |
| 13 | DET | 28-33 | 16.9 | 5 | 8 | 119 | 0 | 27.6% | 61% |
| 14 | CAR | 28-6 | 12.8 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 1 | 22.7% | 65% |
| 16 | LA | 22-30 | 23.3 | 9 | 13 | 123 | 0 | 32.5% | 75% |
| 17 | TB | 23-13 | 5.6 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 0 | 17.6% | 67% |
| 18 | ATL | 48-17 | 14.6 | 3 | 3 | 56 | 1 | 12% | 73% |
| Receptions | 87 |
| Targets | 138 |
| Receiving yards | 1,123 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 14.46 |
| Yards per target | 8.14 |
| Catch rate | 63.04% |
| Snap share | 73.81% |
| Target share | 24.76% |
| Air-yards share | 38.86% |
| WOPR | 0.644 |
| RACR | 0.644 |
| Average depth of target | 13.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8.9 |
| Total YAC | 347 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 91.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.71 |
| Red-zone targets | 12 |
| Red-zone target share | 17.6% |
| End-zone target share | 18.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.86 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.14 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 18 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 28 of 51 |
| Target share | 19 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 12 of 51 |
The offense threw it 606 times. He took 23.96% of the targets. 0 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Chris Olave ← | 23.96% |
| Alvin Kamara | 14.93% |
| Rashid Shaheed | 13.02% |
| Michael Thomas | 11.11% |
| Juwan Johnson | 10.24% |
| Taysom Hill | 6.94% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 15 | 129 | 13.99 | 7.98 | 24.91% |
| Jameis Winston | 1 | 9 | 21.4 | 10.44 | 22.5% |
4 of his 16 games were blowouts, 16.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9.5 in those and 17.74 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 3 against CAR — 23.7 PPR on 13 targets and a 33.3% target share, in a game that finished 14-22. His worst was Week 10 against PIT at 7, on 5 targets, final score 10-20. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 15.3; in the 6 decided by more, 10.1. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 13.6 points per game. He scored 13.21, 2.5% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL | 27-26 | 9.1 | 3 | 3 | 41 | 0 | 9.4% | 74% |
| 2 | TB | 10-20 | 11 | 5 | 13 | 80 | 0 | 32.5% | 75% |
| 3 | CAR | 14-22 | 23.7 | 9 | 13 | 147 | 0 | 33.3% | 77% |
| 4 | MIN | 25-28 | 16.7 | 4 | 7 | 67 | 1 | 25% | 68% |
| 5 | SEA | 39-32 | 15.4 | 4 | 6 | 54 | 1 | 24% | 40% |
| 7 | ARI | 34-42 | 17.6 | 7 | 14 | 106 | 0 | 30.4% | 76% |
| 8 | LV | 24-0 | 10.2 | 5 | 7 | 52 | 0 | 23.3% | 58% |
| 9 | BAL | 13-27 | 13.1 | 6 | 9 | 71 | 0 | 32.1% | 90% |
| 10 | PIT | 10-20 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 40 | 0 | 17.9% | 77% |
| 11 | LA | 27-20 | 21.2 | 5 | 6 | 102 | 1 | 22.2% | 49% |
| 12 | SF | 0-13 | 11.2 | 5 | 9 | 62 | 0 | 30% | 67% |
| 13 | TB | 16-17 | 10.5 | 4 | 6 | 65 | 0 | 21.4% | 69% |
| 15 | ATL | 21-18 | 8.3 | 3 | 4 | 53 | 0 | 21.1% | 49% |
| 17 | PHI | 20-10 | 8.2 | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 | 21.7% | 61% |
| 18 | CAR | 7-10 | 15 | 5 | 12 | 60 | 1 | 48% | 60% |
| Receptions | 72 |
| Targets | 119 |
| Receiving yards | 1,042 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 13.21 |
| Yards per target | 8.76 |
| Catch rate | 60.5% |
| Snap share | 66% |
| Target share | 26.15% |
| Air-yards share | 39.13% |
| WOPR | 0.666 |
| RACR | 0.737 |
| Average depth of target | 14.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 2.9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 11.6 |
| Total YAC | 210 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 82.7 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.66 |
| Red-zone targets | 11 |
| Red-zone target share | 17.7% |
| End-zone target share | 16% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.91 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.09 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 26 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 19 of 51 |
| Target share | 16 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 6 of 51 |
The offense threw it 512 times. He took 24.29% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Chris Olave ← | 24.29% |
| Alvin Kamara | 15.71% |
| Juwan Johnson | 13.27% |
| Jarvis Landry | 7.96% |
| Rashid Shaheed | 6.94% |
| Marquez Callaway | 6.53% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 12 | 90 | 12.87 | 8.6 | 26.43% |
| Jameis Winston | 3 | 29 | 14.6 | 9.24 | 25.07% |
1 of his 15 games were blowouts, 5.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 10.2 in those and 15.28 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about Chris Olave →