Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 13.57 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 83.3, usage worth 12.6.
27 years old · 4 seasons of experience · 2022 draft class
| SLEEPER | 74.4 |
| ESPN | 104.7 |
| YAHOO | 76.6 |
| UNDERDOG | 70.6 |
| CBS | 77.6 |
| FFA | 62 |
| Goes around | Round 7, pick 11 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | RB27 |
| Bye week | 9 |
| ADP standard deviation | 14.3 picks |
Our board has him at 192.7 points, 12 per game — 686 rushing yards, 4.7 rushing TDs, 46.1 catches. That is RB4, 62 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 8.4 points per game to a ceiling of 18.9, with the median at 12. Boom rate 58%, bust rate 29%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 83.3 on consensus and our board has him 62. We rank him 21.3 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
specifically upgraded mid-analysis on the strength of one stat: Pittsburgh threw to the RB position at the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL last year (behind only San Francisco) — meaning even a clear early-down loss to Kaleb Johnson still leaves Warren with real receiving-game volume.
hold · medium conviction · 2026-08Pittsburgh Steelers returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing hc, oc. Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, Mike McCarthy as head coach, Brian Angelichio calling it. The offense projects to 33 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 25.3 rushes.
In: Drew Allar (qb2), Michael Pittman Jr. (wr2), Germie Bernard (wr3), Kaden Wejen (wr6), A.T. Perry (wr7), Rico Dowdle (rb2), Eli Heidenreich (rb4). Out: Calvin Austin III (wr2), Adam Thielen (wr4), Kenneth Gainwell (rb2), Jonnu Smith (te2).
The projected carry split across the offense:
| Jaylen Warren ← | 50.2% |
| Rico Dowdle | 38.2% |
| Kaleb Johnson | 9.6% |
| Eli Heidenreich | 2% |
Key additions: Traded for and Signed Michael Pittman Jr to 3 year $59M deal. Signed RB Rico Dowdle to 2/$12M deal in free agency. Drafted WR Germie Bernard in 2nd round, Drafted OT Max Iheanachor in 1st roud to beef up line. Drafted QB Drew Allar in the 3rd round. Drafted G Gennings Dunker 3rd roud (depth). Bringin in HC Mike McCarthy & Brian Angelichio as OC.
Key departures: RB Kenneth Gainwell left in free agency to Bucs. LG Isaac Seumalo left for Cardinals. WR Calvin Austin III left in free agency for Giants. HC Mike Tomlin & OC Arthur Smith (Ass) are both gone.
Notes: Drafted Bernard round 2 Steelers traded up. Steelers traded for Michael Pittman Jr. who is aging but will elevate the passing game. DK Metcalf looks to get back on track in 2026 & establish himself as WR1. Crowded WR room. Steelers drafted WR Riley Nowakowski in the 4th round & he will likely operate as WR5 or return specialist. Signed Rico Dowdle to 2 year deal in free agency. Warren is slotted to be 1A and Dowdle 1B, but any injury to either back makes the other a home run hit in fantasy for 2026. Aaron Rodgers SHOULD return to Steelers, but also drafted Drew Allar (bad QB but good prospect who should be rostered because he can progress. Zero floor on Allar but the ceiling is very high if he gets better.)
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Aaron Rodgers returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (32.4 att/g); Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33 att/g; New OC Brian Angelichio — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Mike McCarthy.
| Projected carry share | 50.2% |
| Projected carries per game | 10.4 |
| Projected carries, full season | 177 |
| Last season, carries per game | 13.1 |
That is a reduction of 2.7 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 25.3 rushing attempts a game.
Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.
Offensive environment: PIT rates 21.3 against a league average of 23, 1.6 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -0.4 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | +0.5 · neutral |
| Weeks 12–17 | -6 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +4.2 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2 | Cordarrelle Patterson | +5.8 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +15% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 2023 | 17.8 | 65% | -48.5% |
| Devin Singletary | 2023 | 9.8 | 64% | -18.7% |
| Devin Singletary | 2022 | 11.1 | 63% | +25.8% |
| Chuba Hubbard | 2023 | 10.7 | 61% | +95.8% |
| Zack Moss | 2023 | 12.1 | 60% | -2% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 2 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.
| Height | 5′8″ |
| Weight | 204 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.55s |
| Vertical | 31.5″ |
| Broad jump | 119″ |
| Career PPR per game | 10.4 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.5 |
| Boom rate | 25% |
| Bust rate | 13.5% |
| Games missed per season | 0.8 |
| Injury history | Hamstring, Knee |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | -0.24 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 16 against DET — 29.1 PPR on 16 touches and a 5.3% target share, in a game that finished 29-24. His worst was Week 17 against CLE at 6.4, on 12 touches, final score 6-13. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 15.8; in the 7 decided by more, 10.7. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 12.6 points per game. He scored 13.57, 4.4% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYJ | 34-32 | 13.9 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 11 | 37 | 1 | 6.9% | 45% |
| 2 | SEA | 17-31 | 17.4 | 4 | 4 | 86 | 14 | 48 | 0 | 12.9% | 58% |
| 3 | NE | 21-14 | 13.1 | 5 | 6 | 34 | 18 | 47 | 0 | 27.3% | 80% |
| 6 | CLE | 23-9 | 8.3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 52 | 0 | 6.9% | 53% |
| 7 | CIN | 31-33 | 19.8 | 4 | 5 | 31 | 16 | 127 | 0 | 15.2% | 65% |
| 8 | GB | 25-35 | 9.3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 13 | 62 | 0 | 9.4% | 62% |
| 9 | IND | 27-20 | 16.9 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 16 | 31 | 2 | 5.7% | 56% |
| 10 | LAC | 10-25 | 11.1 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 14 | 70 | 0 | 7.1% | 46% |
| 11 | CIN | 34-12 | 8.7 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 62 | 0 | 6.9% | 28% |
| 12 | CHI | 28-31 | 12.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 68 | 1 | 0% | 50% |
| 13 | BUF | 7-26 | 12.4 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 10 | 35 | 1 | 18.2% | 56% |
| 14 | BAL | 27-22 | 15.2 | 3 | 3 | 49 | 8 | 13 | 1 | 9.1% | 50% |
| 15 | MIA | 28-15 | 7.8 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 33 | 0 | 11.1% | 45% |
| 16 | DET | 29-24 | 29.1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 143 | 2 | 5.3% | 49% |
| 17 | CLE | 6-13 | 6.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 64 | 0 | 0% | 32% |
| 18 | BAL | 26-24 | 14.9 | 5 | 5 | 33 | 14 | 66 | 0 | 11.4% | 37% |
| Receptions | 40 |
| Targets | 45 |
| Receiving yards | 333 |
| Carries | 211 |
| Rushing yards | 958 |
| Touchdowns | 8 |
| Points per game | 13.57 |
| Yards per target | 7.4 |
| Catch rate | 88.89% |
| Yards per carry | 4.54 |
| Snap share | 50.75% |
| Target share | 9.59% |
| Air-yards share | -4.49% |
| WOPR | 0.113 |
| RACR | -0.373 |
| Average depth of target | -2.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 11 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -2.7 |
| Total YAC | 439 |
| Broken tackles | 9 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 112.3 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.66 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.03 |
| Red-zone targets | 5 |
| Red-zone target share | 6.5% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 50.6% |
| Goal-line carry share | 48.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.53 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.53 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 7.55 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 19 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 7 of 49 |
| Target share | 22 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 48 of 49 |
The offense threw it 550 times. He took 8.65% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| DK Metcalf | 19.04% |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 16.35% |
| Calvin Austin III | 10.58% |
| Jonnu Smith | 10.38% |
| Pat Freiermuth | 10.38% |
| Jaylen Warren ← | 8.65% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 14 | 43 | 13.97 | 7.63 | 10.46% |
| Mason Rudolph | 2 | 2 | 10.75 | 2.5 | 3.45% |
2 of his 16 games were blowouts, 9.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 10.55 in those and 15.79 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 17 against KC — 16.2 PPR on 17 touches and a 17.1% target share, in a game that finished 10-29. His worst was Week 3 against LAC at 1.1, on 4 touches, final score 20-10. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 8.5; in the 7 decided by more, 8. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 10 points per game. He scored 8.27, 18.2% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 0 against 1.16 expected, a gap of -1.2.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL | 18-10 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 9.1% | 31% |
| 2 | DEN | 13-6 | 8.1 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 9 | 42 | 0 | 11.1% | 48% |
| 3 | LAC | 20-10 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 3.2% | 34% |
| 6 | LV | 32-13 | 4.8 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 13% | 37% |
| 7 | NYJ | 37-15 | 7.9 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 44 | 0 | 11.1% | 51% |
| 8 | NYG | 26-18 | 7.9 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 46 | 0 | 11.1% | 39% |
| 10 | WAS | 28-27 | 9.5 | 2 | 2 | 29 | 14 | 66 | 0 | 7.7% | 45% |
| 11 | BAL | 18-16 | 10.8 | 4 | 4 | 27 | 9 | 41 | 0 | 12.5% | 33% |
| 12 | CLE | 19-24 | 15.4 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 11 | 45 | 1 | 16% | 57% |
| 13 | CIN | 44-38 | 10.4 | 4 | 4 | 55 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 11.1% | 36% |
| 14 | CLE | 27-14 | 9.2 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 9 | 47 | 0 | 20.8% | 52% |
| 15 | PHI | 13-27 | 2.5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 9.5% | 53% |
| 16 | BAL | 17-34 | 14.2 | 5 | 5 | 44 | 12 | 48 | 0 | 19.2% | 67% |
| 17 | KC | 10-29 | 16.2 | 5 | 6 | 41 | 11 | 71 | 0 | 17.1% | 53% |
| 18 | CIN | 17-19 | 2.1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 21 | 0 | 3.4% | 38% |
| Receptions | 38 |
| Targets | 47 |
| Receiving yards | 310 |
| Carries | 120 |
| Rushing yards | 511 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 8.27 |
| Yards per target | 6.6 |
| Catch rate | 80.85% |
| Yards per carry | 4.26 |
| Snap share | 44.93% |
| Target share | 11.73% |
| Air-yards share | -0.38% |
| WOPR | 0.174 |
| RACR | 1.815 |
| Average depth of target | -0.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 8.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -0.1 |
| Total YAC | 315 |
| Broken tackles | 5 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 94.1 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.11 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.95 |
| Red-zone targets | 7 |
| Red-zone target share | 11.5% |
| End-zone target share | 4% |
| Red-zone carry share | 18.7% |
| Goal-line carry share | 15.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.16 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.16 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 2.4 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 36 of 46 |
| Yards per target | 14 of 46 |
| Target share | 12 of 46 |
| Air-yards share | 20 of 46 |
The offense threw it 498 times. He took 10.24% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| George Pickens | 22.44% |
| Pat Freiermuth | 16.99% |
| Calvin Austin III | 12.64% |
| Najee Harris | 10.46% |
| Jaylen Warren ← | 10.24% |
| Van Jefferson | 8.71% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 11 | 39 | 9.65 | 6.95 | 12.68% |
| Justin Fields | 4 | 8 | 4.5 | 4.88 | 9.1% |
4 of his 15 games were blowouts, 34.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 10.77 in those and 8.52 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 11 against CLE — 23.5 PPR on 12 touches and a 12% target share, in a game that finished 10-13. His worst was Week 13 against ARI at 6.5, on 12 touches, final score 10-24. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 12.9; in the 6 decided by more, 9.1. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 11.5 points per game. He scored 11.55, 1.8% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF | 7-30 | 6.8 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 13.3% | 40% |
| 2 | CLE | 26-22 | 12.6 | 4 | 6 | 66 | 6 | 20 | 0 | 20.7% | 43% |
| 3 | LV | 23-18 | 8.2 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 8 | 29 | 0 | 14.8% | 45% |
| 4 | HOU | 6-30 | 11.5 | 6 | 6 | 26 | 8 | 29 | 0 | 22.2% | 49% |
| 5 | BAL | 17-10 | 10.9 | 3 | 3 | 39 | 9 | 40 | 0 | 9.7% | 49% |
| 7 | LA | 24-17 | 10.1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 6 | 32 | 1 | 8.7% | 46% |
| 8 | JAX | 10-20 | 7.8 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 12.5% | 49% |
| 9 | TEN | 20-16 | 14.3 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 11 | 88 | 0 | 10.3% | 40% |
| 10 | GB | 23-19 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 101 | 1 | 18.2% | 51% |
| 11 | CLE | 10-13 | 23.5 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 9 | 129 | 1 | 12% | 45% |
| 12 | CIN | 16-10 | 7.2 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 49 | 0 | 9.4% | 48% |
| 13 | ARI | 10-24 | 6.5 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 9 | 59 | 0 | 11.1% | 43% |
| 14 | NE | 18-21 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 14.3% | 53% |
| 15 | IND | 13-30 | 11.8 | 5 | 6 | 28 | 10 | 40 | 0 | 23.1% | 69% |
| 16 | CIN | 34-11 | 10.4 | 5 | 6 | 30 | 8 | 24 | 0 | 24% | 58% |
| 17 | SEA | 30-23 | 19.8 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 13 | 75 | 1 | 19% | 54% |
| 18 | BAL | 17-10 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 17 | 9 | 33 | 0 | 25% | 44% |
| Receptions | 61 |
| Targets | 74 |
| Receiving yards | 370 |
| Carries | 149 |
| Rushing yards | 784 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 11.55 |
| Yards per target | 5 |
| Catch rate | 82.43% |
| Yards per carry | 5.26 |
| Snap share | 48.59% |
| Target share | 15.78% |
| Air-yards share | -3.49% |
| WOPR | 0.212 |
| RACR | -2.087 |
| Average depth of target | -1.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -1.9 |
| Total YAC | 486 |
| Broken tackles | 7 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 87.5 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.79 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.24 |
| Red-zone targets | 5 |
| Red-zone target share | 10.2% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 27.3% |
| Goal-line carry share | 22.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.96 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.96 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 3.13 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 29 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 31 of 49 |
| Target share | 6 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 47 of 49 |
The offense threw it 506 times. He took 15.29% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| George Pickens | 21.9% |
| Diontae Johnson | 17.98% |
| Jaylen Warren ← | 15.29% |
| Allen Robinson | 10.12% |
| Pat Freiermuth | 9.71% |
| Najee Harris | 7.85% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 10 | 40 | 12.41 | 5.7 | 13.93% |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 4 | 19 | 8.53 | 3.79 | 15.25% |
| Mason Rudolph | 3 | 15 | 12.73 | 4.67 | 22.67% |
4 of his 17 games were blowouts, 20.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 10.13 in those and 12.87 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 17 against BAL — 12.8 PPR on 15 touches and a 11.1% target share, in a game that finished 16-13. His worst was Week 6 against TB at 0.2, on 2 touches, final score 20-18. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 11 times. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 4.6; in the 5 decided by more, 8.6. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 6.1 points per game. He scored 5.83, 4.3% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIN | 23-20 | 0.7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 2.7% | 37% |
| 2 | NE | 14-17 | 2.5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 3.1% | 29% |
| 3 | CLE | 17-29 | 4.3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 3.1% | 20% |
| 4 | NYJ | 20-24 | 3.2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 4% | 25% |
| 5 | BUF | 3-38 | 10.3 | 4 | 5 | 39 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 9.8% | 51% |
| 6 | TB | 20-18 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 31% |
| 7 | MIA | 10-16 | 4.4 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 4.8% | 23% |
| 8 | PHI | 13-35 | 10.5 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 6 | 50 | 0 | 7.5% | 29% |
| 10 | NO | 20-10 | 10.7 | 3 | 3 | 40 | 9 | 37 | 0 | 11.5% | 43% |
| 11 | CIN | 30-37 | 1.9 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6% | 4% |
| 13 | ATL | 19-16 | 3.9 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 7.4% | 20% |
| 14 | BAL | 14-16 | 4.7 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 9.7% | 40% |
| 15 | CAR | 24-16 | 11.9 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 38 | 1 | 4.8% | 34% |
| 16 | LV | 13-10 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 23 | 0 | 5.6% | 31% |
| 17 | BAL | 16-13 | 12.8 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 12 | 76 | 0 | 11.1% | 40% |
| 18 | CLE | 28-14 | 7.3 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 36 | 0 | 14.3% | 42% |
| Receptions | 28 |
| Targets | 33 |
| Receiving yards | 214 |
| Carries | 77 |
| Rushing yards | 379 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 5.83 |
| Yards per target | 6.48 |
| Catch rate | 84.85% |
| Yards per carry | 4.92 |
| Snap share | 31.19% |
| Target share | 6.37% |
| Air-yards share | -0.49% |
| WOPR | 0.092 |
| RACR | 0.548 |
| Average depth of target | -0.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -0.4 |
| Total YAC | 225 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 93.7 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.66 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.52 |
| Red-zone targets | 5 |
| Red-zone target share | 7.9% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 16.7% |
| Goal-line carry share | 7.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.81 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.81 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 1.61 |
The offense threw it 571 times. He took 6.08% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Diontae Johnson | 27.07% |
| Pat Freiermuth | 18.05% |
| George Pickens | 15.47% |
| Najee Harris | 9.76% |
| Chase Claypool | 9.21% |
| Jaylen Warren ← | 6.08% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 10 | 25 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 7.46% |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 6 | 8 | 4.55 | 4.25 | 4.57% |
2 of his 16 games were blowouts, 22.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 10.4 in those and 4.56 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
Ask the Coach about Jaylen Warren →