Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 13.24 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 77.9, usage worth 9.6.
27 years old · 4 seasons of experience · 2022 draft class
| SLEEPER | 69.7 |
| ESPN | 102 |
| YAHOO | 68.3 |
| UNDERDOG | 57.6 |
| CBS | 71.7 |
| FFA | 66 |
| Goes around | Round 7, pick 6 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR30 |
| Bye week | 11 |
| ADP standard deviation | 16.1 picks |
Our board has him at 188.4 points, 11.5 per game — 59 catches, 923 yards, 6.2 TDs. That is WR4, 66 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 9.1 points per game to a ceiling of 17.3, with the median at 11.5. Boom rate 51%, bust rate 21%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 77.9 on consensus and our board has him 66. We rank him 11.9 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
the team made no real additions at receiver, suggesting comfort running it back with the same group — but across 4 seasons he's never cleared 620 receiving yards and has only topped 5 catches in 2 of 51 career games. Framed as "paying a premium for a breakout that hasn't happened yet," a weaker bet than paying a premium for production that's already occurred.
hold · medium conviction · 2026-08Green Bay Packers returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1. Jordan Love at quarterback, Matt LaFleur as head coach, Adam Stenavich calling it. The offense projects to 30.2 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 28.2 rushes.
In: Skyy Moore (wr6), Will Sheppard (wr7), MarShawn Lloyd (rb3), Pierre Strong Jr. (rb4). Out: Romeo Doubs (wr1), Emmanuel Wilson (rb2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 17.4%, with a bear case of 16.4% and a bull case of 18.4% and a full range of 15.7% to 19.6%. That comes from 25 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Christian Watson ← | 17.4% |
| Jayden Reed | 17% |
| Matthew Golden | 13.9% |
| Tucker Kraft | 13.1% |
| Josh Jacobs | 9.7% |
| Luke Musgrave | 8.3% |
Key additions: Drafted Jager Burton C in the 5th round, extended Jayden Reed on 3 year deal.
Key departures: Rasheed Walker starting O lineman left to Panthers. RB Emmanuel Wilson left, opening up backup and 3rd down back role for another RB to fill the gap. Romeo Doubs to New England Patriots, Wicks to Eagles. Massive opportunity for Watson, Golden, and Reed. We will have to see who plays the most on 2 WR sets.
Notes: Key departures: Romeo Doubs to New England Patriots, Wicks to Eagles. Massive opportunity for Watson, Golden, and Reed. We will have to see who plays the most on 2 WR sets. Reed landed 3 year 50m extension with packers. Golden could be primed for a breakout. Kraft should be recovered from torn ACL early in the season & Musgrave will fill in if he misses time but no true upside to him. Savion Williams will compete for WR4 but it is unlikely he holds any true value. Jordan Love needs to stay healthy but could be primed for a great 2026 season. Josh Jacobs is showing signs for concern with efficiency & managers need to think about him, however, packers have not brought in any competition so in the meantime he should be ok. The departure of Emmanuel Wilson to Seattle should not be underlooked. He was a highly productive back up RB & could open the door for a healthy Josh Jacobs to return to his peak form briefly. AND another RB will assume a very potentially productive handcuff opportunity.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Jordan Love returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (28.8 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 30.2 att/g.
25 historical comps for WRs age ~25, prior share 17.7%, same team, OC continuity. Distribution: median 18.5%, p25-p75 [16.1%, 21.1%], tails [14.3%, 24.0%]. Closest comps: Christian Watson 2024→2025 (GB: 15.3%→20.1%); Donovan Peoples-Jones 2021→2022 (CLE: 15.1%→18.8%); Marquez Valdes-Scantling 2020→2021 (GB: 15.6%→14.9%). Adjustment: flat from opportunity_breakout (volume must hold)
self-anchored 58% to own 17.7% role (3yr), 42% to comp median 18.5%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: GB rates 24.6 against a league average of 23, 1.6 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -1.7 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | +5 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -4.9 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +1.1 · neutral |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2 | Matthew Golden | +7.5 |
| 2023 | 5 | Jayden Reed | +6.5 |
| 2022 | 2 | Allen Lazard | +3.6 |
| 2024 | 2 | Jayden Reed | +1.2 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +73.9% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, WRs crash the following year 40% of the time (hold 60%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 40% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 2023 | 12.5 | 68% | -15.9% |
| Christian Kirk | 2021 | 12.2 | 66% | +60.4% |
| Tee Higgins | 2023 | 11.5 | 63% | +22.9% |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 2022 | 11.6 | 63% | -38.9% |
| Jaylen Waddle | 2023 | 14.2 | 63% | 0% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 2 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2022, round 2, pick 34 by GNB |
| College | North Dakota St. |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| Height | 6′4″ |
| Weight | 208 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.36s |
| Vertical | 38.5″ |
| Broad jump | 136″ |
| Career PPR per game | 11.7 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.8 |
| Boom rate | 34.3% |
| Bust rate | 28.6% |
| Games missed per season | 2.8 |
| Injury history | Hamstring, Ankle, Knee |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.17 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 14 against CHI — 24.9 PPR on 4 targets and a 17.4% target share, in a game that finished 28-21. His worst was Week 16 against CHI at 3.7, on 6 targets, final score 16-22. Across 10 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 12.5; in the 3 decided by more, 14.9. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 9.6 points per game. He scored 13.24, 36.9% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | PIT | 35-25 | 12.5 | 4 | 4 | 85 | 0 | 11.4% | 56% |
| 9 | CAR | 13-16 | 7.8 | 2 | 4 | 58 | 0 | 11.4% | 66% |
| 10 | PHI | 7-10 | 6.5 | 2 | 4 | 45 | 0 | 12.1% | 82% |
| 11 | NYG | 27-20 | 20.6 | 4 | 5 | 46 | 2 | 20% | 78% |
| 12 | MIN | 23-6 | 9.9 | 5 | 7 | 49 | 0 | 33.3% | 74% |
| 13 | DET | 31-24 | 18.3 | 4 | 10 | 80 | 1 | 34.5% | 73% |
| 14 | CHI | 28-21 | 24.9 | 4 | 4 | 89 | 2 | 17.4% | 83% |
| 15 | DEN | 26-34 | 5.9 | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 | 13.9% | 41% |
| 16 | CHI | 16-22 | 3.7 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 25% | 62% |
| 17 | BAL | 24-41 | 22.3 | 5 | 6 | 113 | 1 | 24% | 62% |
| Receptions | 35 |
| Targets | 55 |
| Receiving yards | 611 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | 3 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 13.24 |
| Yards per target | 11.11 |
| Catch rate | 63.64% |
| Yards per carry | 3 |
| Snap share | 67.7% |
| Target share | 20.3% |
| Air-yards share | 34.75% |
| WOPR | 0.547 |
| RACR | 0.75 |
| Average depth of target | 17.8 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 14.1 |
| Total YAC | 118 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 122.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 3.23 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.02 |
| Red-zone targets | 7 |
| Red-zone target share | 9.7% |
| End-zone target share | 20.8% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.18 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.82 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.05 |
The offense threw it 489 times. He took 11.96% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Romeo Doubs | 18.48% |
| Christian Watson ← | 11.96% |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 10% |
| Josh Jacobs | 9.57% |
| Tucker Kraft | 9.57% |
| Matthew Golden | 9.57% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 9 | 49 | 12.23 | 10.16 | 19.89% |
| Malik Willis | 1 | 6 | 22.3 | 18.83 | 24% |
2 of his 10 games were blowouts, 24.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 16.1 in those and 12.53 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 11 against CHI — 19 PPR on 4 targets and a 23.5% target share, in a game that finished 20-19. His worst was Week 18 against CHI at 0, on 1 targets, final score 22-24. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 7.4; in the 7 decided by more, 7.6. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 6.7 points per game. He scored 7.52, 12.1% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | 29-34 | 10.3 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 1 | 15.6% | 63% |
| 3 | TEN | 30-14 | 8.7 | 2 | 2 | 67 | 0 | 10.5% | 54% |
| 4 | MIN | 29-31 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.9% | 12% |
| 6 | ARI | 34-13 | 15.8 | 3 | 4 | 68 | 1 | 12.9% | 60% |
| 7 | HOU | 24-22 | 1.5 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 6.1% | 53% |
| 8 | JAX | 30-27 | 7.9 | 4 | 6 | 39 | 0 | 22.2% | 74% |
| 9 | DET | 14-24 | 8.7 | 3 | 7 | 37 | 0 | 18.9% | 57% |
| 11 | CHI | 20-19 | 19 | 4 | 4 | 150 | 0 | 23.5% | 67% |
| 12 | SF | 38-10 | 0.4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13.6% | 65% |
| 13 | MIA | 30-17 | 8.7 | 2 | 4 | 67 | 0 | 14.3% | 94% |
| 14 | DET | 31-34 | 13.4 | 4 | 7 | 114 | 0 | 36.8% | 92% |
| 15 | SEA | 30-13 | 8.6 | 3 | 6 | 56 | 0 | 23.1% | 78% |
| 16 | NO | 34-0 | 2.3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.7% | 43% |
| 18 | CHI | 22-24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | 15% |
| Receptions | 29 |
| Targets | 53 |
| Receiving yards | 620 |
| Carries | 4 |
| Rushing yards | 23 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 7.52 |
| Yards per target | 11.7 |
| Catch rate | 54.72% |
| Yards per carry | 5.75 |
| Snap share | 59.07% |
| Target share | 14.79% |
| Air-yards share | 31.37% |
| WOPR | 0.441 |
| RACR | 0.557 |
| Average depth of target | 17.8 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 16.2 |
| Total YAC | 149 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 93.3 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.41 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.04 |
| Red-zone targets | 8 |
| Red-zone target share | 10.4% |
| End-zone target share | 16.7% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.81 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.81 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.04 |
The offense threw it 479 times. He took 11.45% of the targets. 4 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Dontayvion Wicks | 16.41% |
| Jayden Reed | 16.2% |
| Romeo Doubs | 15.55% |
| Tucker Kraft | 15.12% |
| Christian Watson ← | 11.45% |
| Josh Jacobs | 9.29% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 12 | 50 | 8.05 | 11.06 | 16.05% |
| Malik Willis | 2 | 3 | 4.35 | 22.33 | 7.25% |
4 of his 14 games were blowouts, 25.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.77 in those and 7.44 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 13 against KC — 27.6 PPR on 9 targets and a 25.7% target share, in a game that finished 27-19. His worst was Week 10 against PIT at 4.3, on 7 targets, final score 19-23. Across 9 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 13.3; in the 3 decided by more, 7.2. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 8.7 points per game. He scored 11.26, 9.5% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 5 against 3.14 expected, a gap of 1.9.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | DET | 20-34 | 10.5 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 1 | 11.8% | 46% |
| 5 | LV | 13-17 | 11.6 | 3 | 7 | 91 | 0 | 24.1% | 84% |
| 7 | DEN | 17-19 | 5.7 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 15.6% | 88% |
| 8 | MIN | 10-24 | 6.3 | 3 | 8 | 33 | 0 | 20% | 82% |
| 9 | LA | 20-3 | 4.7 | 1 | 2 | 37 | 0 | 8% | 78% |
| 10 | PIT | 19-23 | 4.3 | 2 | 7 | 23 | 0 | 18.9% | 75% |
| 11 | LAC | 23-20 | 10.2 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 1 | 10.5% | 78% |
| 12 | DET | 29-22 | 20.4 | 5 | 7 | 94 | 1 | 23.3% | 88% |
| 13 | KC | 27-19 | 27.6 | 7 | 9 | 71 | 2 | 25.7% | 73% |
| Receptions | 28 |
| Targets | 53 |
| Receiving yards | 422 |
| Carries | 4 |
| Rushing yards | 11 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 11.26 |
| Yards per target | 7.96 |
| Catch rate | 52.83% |
| Yards per carry | 2.75 |
| Snap share | 76.89% |
| Target share | 17.54% |
| Air-yards share | 33.13% |
| WOPR | 0.494 |
| RACR | 0.539 |
| Average depth of target | 15.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 11.3 |
| Total YAC | 105 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 71.4 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.21 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.17 |
| Red-zone targets | 13 |
| Red-zone target share | 11.7% |
| End-zone target share | 19.6% |
| Red-zone carry share | 0.9% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.14 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 5 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.86 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.05 |
The offense threw it 581 times. He took 9.45% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Romeo Doubs | 17.11% |
| Jayden Reed | 16.76% |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 10.34% |
| Christian Watson ← | 9.45% |
| Luke Musgrave | 8.2% |
| Aaron Jones | 7.66% |
1 of his 9 games were blowouts, 4.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4.7 in those and 13.3 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 10 against DAL — 32.7 PPR on 8 targets and a 42.1% target share, in a game that finished 31-28. His worst was Week 5 against NYG at 0.8, on 1 targets, final score 22-27. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 13.7; in the 7 decided by more, 9.8. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 8.1 points per game. He scored 11.72, 45.5% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 7-23 | 6.1 | 2 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 11.4% | 66% |
| 2 | CHI | 27-10 | 3.9 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 12% | 32% |
| 4 | NE | 27-24 | 9.3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 9.4% | 25% |
| 5 | NYG | 22-27 | 0.8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2.6% | 29% |
| 8 | BUF | 17-27 | 2.2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3.4% | 9% |
| 9 | DET | 9-15 | 4.4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 5% | 23% |
| 10 | DAL | 31-28 | 32.7 | 4 | 8 | 107 | 3 | 42.1% | 84% |
| 11 | TEN | 17-27 | 21.1 | 4 | 6 | 48 | 2 | 16.2% | 80% |
| 12 | PHI | 33-40 | 21 | 4 | 6 | 110 | 1 | 24% | 92% |
| 13 | CHI | 28-19 | 24.4 | 3 | 7 | 48 | 2 | 23.3% | 92% |
| 15 | LA | 24-12 | 8.6 | 4 | 6 | 46 | 0 | 21.4% | 87% |
| 16 | MIA | 26-20 | 10.9 | 6 | 8 | 49 | 0 | 21.1% | 38% |
| 17 | MIN | 41-17 | 2.1 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 19.2% | 60% |
| 18 | DET | 16-20 | 16.6 | 5 | 6 | 104 | 0 | 23.1% | 87% |
| Receptions | 41 |
| Targets | 66 |
| Receiving yards | 611 |
| Carries | 7 |
| Rushing yards | 80 |
| Touchdowns | 9 |
| Points per game | 11.72 |
| Yards per target | 9.26 |
| Catch rate | 62.12% |
| Yards per carry | 11.43 |
| Snap share | 57.43% |
| Target share | 16.73% |
| Air-yards share | 25.45% |
| WOPR | 0.429 |
| RACR | 0.612 |
| Average depth of target | 13.8 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8.2 |
| Total YAC | 276 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 121.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.19 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.48 |
| Red-zone targets | 14 |
| Red-zone target share | 17.3% |
| End-zone target share | 18.8% |
| Red-zone carry share | 4.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.6 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.4 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.17 |
The offense threw it 563 times. He took 12.24% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Allen Lazard | 18.55% |
| Aaron Jones | 13.36% |
| Robert Tonyan | 12.43% |
| Romeo Doubs | 12.43% |
| Christian Watson ← | 12.24% |
| Randall Cobb | 9.28% |
2 of his 14 games were blowouts, 3.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3 in those and 13.67 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
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