RB · DEN · GWTTKB

J.K. Dobbins — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 11.59 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 101.2, usage worth 11.9.

27 years old · 6 seasons of experience · 2020 draft class

Updated 2026-08-16 · free, no account, no paywall
Every figure below comes from our database. Where a stat is not held, the row is absent rather than zero.
ADP 101.2
Consensus across 4 books, standard deviation 16.4, 35.8 picks between cheapest and priciest. Cheapest on espn, priciest on sleeper.
SLEEPER89.2
ESPN125
YAHOO98.7
UNDERDOG97.2
CBS91.8
FFA90

Draft-room facts

Goes aroundRound 9, pick 5 in a 12-team draft
Positional rankRB33
Bye week10
ADP standard deviation16.4 picks

What we project for 2026

Our board has him at 144.7 points, 9 per game — 828 rushing yards, 5.5 rushing TDs, 15.1 catches. That is RB4, 91 overall.

The range runs from a floor of 6.2 points per game to a ceiling of 15.8, with the median at 9. Boom rate 76%, bust rate 31%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.

He goes at 101.2 on consensus and our board has him 91. We rank him 10.2 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.

Our written view

explicitly labeled a best-ball-style floor pick, not a redraft league-winner: the early-down role and some touchdowns are close to locked in, but there's structurally no path to a real receiving ceiling as long as Harvey and Coleman are both on the roster.

watch · medium conviction · 2026-08

The offense he plays in, 2026

Denver Broncos returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1, oc. Bo Nix at quarterback, Sean Payton as head coach, Davis Webb calling it. The offense projects to 35 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 26.4 rushes.

In: Jaylen Waddle (wr1), Lil'Jordan Humphrey (wr6), Dane Key (wr7), Jonah Coleman (rb3).

The projected carry split across the offense:

JK Dobbins 54.6%
RJ Harvey28.1%
Jaleel McLaughlin10.1%
Jonah Coleman7.3%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

What the offense looks like: The Jaylen Waddle trade is probably bad for Waddle & Suttons value. It is likely worse for Sutton than Waddle though. The RB room is also nearly impossible to predict. What we do know: if a RB is featured on this offense they are a weekly RB1, but JK Dobbins, Harvey, and now Coleman will be difficult to trust when all three are healthy. WR 3 - WR 6 on Denver all are promising young WR and could be potential trade targets for WR needy teams early in 2026.

Key additions: A key add is Broncos QB coach Davis Webb was promoted to OC & will handle play calling in 2026. Webb was a potential head coach candidate & Denver maintains a great weapon on their coaching staff. Broncos traded 1st round pick for WR Jaylen Waddle from dolphins. He will likely function as teams WR1. Broncos also drafted RB Jonah Coleman in the 4th round from washington & TE Justin Joly in the 5th round.

Key departures: No key departures on offense

Notes: Bo Nix will be 100% healthy by camp following foot injury in NFL playoffs. Broncos traded their 2026 1st round pick for Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle. This will significantly reduce Sutton's role as the alpha in the offense. Pat Bryant & Troy Franklin will likely have trade interest but if they stay on the team will have reduced roles. Broncos backfield is incredibly difficult to project & will need to be monitored all summer. Denver extended JK Dobbins & Drafted Jonah Coleman in the 5th round. Dobbins expected to be 1A and Harvey 1B, with Coleman as reserve, but Sean Payton as HC can do whatever he wants. Broncos drafted TE Justin Joly in the 5th round who has a small chance to be relevant because Evan Engram is legit trash

How the volume number was reached: Same QB Bo Nix returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (36 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 35 att/g; New OC Davis Webb — pass rate and tempo may shift.

How the carry projection was built

Projected carry share54.6%
Projected carries per game11.8
Projected carries, full season201
Last season, carries per game15.3

That is a reduction of 3.5 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 26.4 rushing attempts a game.

Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.

Offensive environment: DEN rates 22.9 against a league average of 23, 0.1 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season-0.8 · neutral
Weeks 1–6-10.2 · harder
Weeks 12–17+4.7 · easier
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)-0.4 · neutral

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

What happened when he missed time

From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.

SeasonGames missedMain beneficiaryTheir PPR gain
20252Tyler Badie+-1.2
Read the full J.K. Dobbins study →

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved +13.1% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

PlayerSeasonTheir PPGSimilarityNext year
Miles Sanders202212.768%-29%
D'Onta Foreman202310.158%-15.8%
Nick Chubb20247.955%-31.9%
D'Onta Foreman202110.455%+58.6%
A.J. Dillon20237.854%-40.3%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 4 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

02,0004,0006,0008,000202120222023202420252026
Monthly superflex value, 2020-04 to 2026-07. Down 52% across the series, peaking at 7,292.

The player

Draft capital and athletic profile

Drafted2020, round 2, pick 55 by BAL
CollegeOhio St.
Age at draft21
Height5′9″
Weight209 lb

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game11.7
Week-to-week variation0.5
Boom rate14.7%
Bust rate14.7%
Games missed per season1
Injury historyKnee, Foot
Correlation between his posted line and his actual score0.47

That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.

Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.

The record, season by season

2025 · DEN · 10 games

His best game was Week 2 against IND — 15.5 PPR on 16 touches and a 6.7% target share, in a game that finished 28-29. His worst was Week 6 against NYJ at 4, on 15 touches, final score 13-11. Across 10 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 2 times.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 11.9 points per game. He scored 11.59, 2.3% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1TEN20-1214.8225166315.4%53%
2IND28-2915.5129147616.7%45%
3LAC20-2315.3120118318.7%67%
4CIN28-311.51141610102.4%44%
5PHI21-1715.4115207912.8%53%
6NYJ13-114010144003.8%50%
7NYG33-32911-1148102%49%
8DAL44-2414.122101511107.4%52%
9HOU18-156.911-2156102.9%46%
10LV10-79.4117187703.7%52%

Production

Receptions11
Targets14
Receiving yards37
Carries153
Rushing yards772
Touchdowns4
Points per game11.59
Yards per target2.64
Catch rate78.57%
Yards per carry5.05

Role

Snap share51.1%
Target share4.58%
Air-yards share-1.14%
WOPR0.061
RACR-0.114

Efficiency

Average depth of target-2.1
Yards after catch per reception5.1
Yards before catch per reception-1.7
Total YAC56
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0.1%
Passer rating when targeted79.2
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game-0.5
Rushing EPA per game0.42

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share24.4%
Goal-line carry share35%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs3.71

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:

Points per game27 of 49
Yards per target48 of 49
Target share40 of 49
Air-yards share34 of 49

Who else ate

The offense threw it 613 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Courtland Sutton21.6%
Troy Franklin18.12%
Evan Engram13.24%
RJ Harvey10.1%
Marvin Mims Jr.8.89%
Pat Bryant8.54%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 10 games were blowouts, 22.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 12.8 in those and 11.29 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2024 · LAC · 13 games

His best game was Week 9 against CLE — 24.5 PPR on 16 touches and a 7.7% target share, in a game that finished 27-10. His worst was Week 3 against PIT at 8.4, on 18 touches, final score 10-20. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 0 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 13; in the 8 decided by more, 15.9. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 13.7 points per game. He scored 14.75, 1.4% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1LV22-1022.933410135112%58%
2CAR26-320.11101713115.3%46%
3PIT10-208.433101544015.8%65%
4KC10-179.234301432014.8%71%
6DEN23-1618.2226259616.5%73%
7ARI15-179.63326144008.1%68%
8NO26-816.847111757123.3%82%
9CLE27-1024.52220148527.7%74%
10TEN27-178.53351550016.7%66%
11CIN34-2718.9113115623%73%
12BAL23-308.93519640013.9%30%
17NE40-715.3117197612.5%53%
18LV34-2010.53312186308.6%65%

Production

Receptions32
Targets38
Receiving yards153
Carries195
Rushing yards905
Touchdowns9
Points per game14.75
Yards per target4.03
Catch rate84.21%
Yards per carry4.64

Role

Snap share63.38%
Target share10.63%
Air-yards share-1.96%
WOPR0.145
RACR-0.055

Efficiency

Average depth of target-1.2
Yards after catch per reception6.4
Yards before catch per reception-1.6
Total YAC204
Broken tackles1
Drop rate0.1%
Passer rating when targeted83.4
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game-1.07
Rushing EPA per game0.33

Scoring position

Red-zone targets5
Red-zone target share9.4%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share40%
Goal-line carry share34.6%
Expected receiving TDs0.7
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck-0.7
Expected rushing TDs5.5

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:

Points per game18 of 46
Yards per target40 of 46
Target share18 of 46
Air-yards share37 of 46

Who else ate

The offense threw it 509 times. He took 7.82% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Ladd McConkey23.05%
Quentin Johnston18.72%
Josh Palmer13.37%
Will Dissly13.17%
J.K. Dobbins 7.82%
Stone Smartt3.91%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 13 games were blowouts, 40% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 19.18 in those and 12.96 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2023 · BAL · 1 games

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 9.3 points per game. He scored 11.7, 25.8% above it. The engine classified the season as low_volume.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1HOU25-911.72315822114.3%47%

Production

Receptions2
Targets3
Receiving yards15
Carries8
Rushing yards22
Touchdowns1
Points per game11.7
Yards per target5
Catch rate66.67%
Yards per carry2.75

Role

Snap share47%
Target share14.3%
Air-yards share2.9%
WOPR0.23
RACR5

Efficiency

Average depth of target1
Yards after catch per reception7.5
Yards before catch per reception0
Total YAC15
Broken tackles1
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted78.5
Receiving EPA per game0.52
Rushing EPA per game-1.84

Scoring position

Red-zone targets1
Red-zone target share1.4%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share0.8%
Goal-line carry share2.9%
Expected receiving TDs0.28
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck-0.28
Expected rushing TDs0.43

Who else ate

The offense threw it 494 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Zay Flowers22.69%
Odell Beckham13.45%
Mark Andrews12.82%
Rashod Bateman11.76%
Nelson Agholor9.45%
Isaiah Likely8.4%

2022 · BAL · 8 games

His best game was Week 4 against BUF — 22.3 PPR on 17 touches and a 14.3% target share, in a game that finished 20-23. His worst was Week 6 against NYG at 1.5, on 7 touches, final score 20-24. Across 8 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 4 times.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 9.5 points per game. He scored 10.15, 19.4% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
3NE37-266221772307.4%45%
4BUF20-2322.344221341214.3%50%
5CIN19-174.400084400%40%
6NYG20-241.500071500%27%
14PIT16-14180001512010%43%
15CLE3-1313.81131312503.6%38%
16ATL17-95.9010125906.3%42%
17PIT13-169.3000179300%50%

Production

Receptions7
Targets8
Receiving yards42
Carries92
Rushing yards520
Touchdowns3
Points per game10.15
Yards per target5.25
Catch rate87.5%
Yards per carry5.65

Role

Snap share41.88%
Target share3.95%
Air-yards share0.14%
WOPR0.06
RACR-2.219

Efficiency

Average depth of target0.5
Yards after catch per reception5.6
Yards before catch per reception0.4
Total YAC39
Broken tackles1
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted128.1
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game0.01
Rushing EPA per game1.14

Scoring position

Red-zone targets3
Red-zone target share3.8%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share15.5%
Goal-line carry share18.2%
Expected receiving TDs1.2
Actual receiving TDs2
Receiving TD luck0.8
Expected rushing TDs2.6

Who else ate

The offense threw it 488 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Mark Andrews24.3%
Demarcus Robinson16.13%
Isaiah Likely12.9%
Devin Duvernay10.54%
Rashod Bateman6.02%
Kenyan Drake5.59%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Lamar Jackson468.556.55.43%
Tyler Huntley4211.751.52.48%

2020 · BAL · 15 games

His best game was Week 17 against CIN — 28 PPR on 13 touches and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 38-3. His worst was Week 10 against NE at 2.4, on 7 touches, final score 17-23. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 10.4; in the 10 decided by more, 11.6. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 8.5 points per game. He scored 11.23, 33.2% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1CLE38-614.200072220%39%
2HOU33-167.1111324804.3%31%
3KC20-348.4443816014.8%43%
4WAS31-172.712151608.7%37%
5CIN27-38.5332113408.3%29%
6PHI30-284.9241928016%41%
8PIT24-2813.11281511307.7%66%
9IND24-105.5225123008.7%56%
10NE17-232.412151305.9%44%
11TEN24-3018.52215157017.1%63%
13DAL34-1713.1000117110%38%
14CLE47-4213.3000135310%62%
15JAX40-1415.11117146413.8%53%
16NYG27-1313.7010117714.3%51%
17CIN38-3280001316020%43%

Production

Receptions18
Targets24
Receiving yards120
Carries134
Rushing yards805
Touchdowns9
Points per game11.23
Yards per target5
Catch rate75%
Yards per carry6.01

Role

Snap share46.4%
Target share5.97%
Air-yards share-0.43%
WOPR0.087
RACR0.27

Efficiency

Average depth of target0
Yards after catch per reception7.2
Yards before catch per reception-0.5
Total YAC129
Broken tackles2
Drop rate0.2%
Passer rating when targeted85.4
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game0.08
Rushing EPA per game1.81

Scoring position

Red-zone targets2
Red-zone target share2.9%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share29%
Goal-line carry share38.5%
Expected receiving TDs0.81
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck-0.81
Expected rushing TDs5.77

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:

Points per game28 of 47
Yards per target33 of 47
Target share34 of 47
Air-yards share33 of 47

Who else ate

The offense threw it 405 times. He took 6.12% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Marquise Brown25.51%
Mark Andrews22.45%
Willie Snead12.24%
Miles Boykin8.42%
Devin Duvernay6.63%
J.K. Dobbins 6.12%

Blowouts against close games

6 of his 15 games were blowouts, 51% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 14.33 in those and 10.44 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

Ask the Coach about J.K. Dobbins →
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