Charts· WR touchdown luck

Expected TDs vs. actual TDs (2026, Weeks 1–9), min. 45 targets

42 WRs with 45+ targets through Week 9 of 2026: expected TDs across, scrimmage TDs up, split at the averages. Earning & scoring (top right): Jaxon Smith-Njigba, CeeDee Lamb and Ja'Marr Chase. Low TD role (bottom left): Makai Lemon, KC Concepcion and Keenan Allen.

Expected TDs = every target and carry priced by where it happened

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42WRs on the chart

1–9weeks of 2026

45min. targets

+0.50correlation (r)

Each logo is one player, placed by his two numbers. The dashed lines are the averages, and each corner is named for what a player in it is doing; on the diagonal the two are equal. Tap a logo or a name for the numbers, tap again to spotlight him.

The caption

42 WRs · 1638 characters

WR TOUCHDOWN LUCK

Expected TDs vs. actual TDs (2026, Weeks 1–9), min. 45 targets

↗️ EARNING & SCORING
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) 4.9 xTD, 9 TD
CeeDee Lamb (DAL) 6.0 xTD, 7 TD
Ja'Marr Chase (CIN) 4.3 xTD, 7 TD
Matthew Golden (GB) 5.7 xTD, 5 TD
Christian Watson (GB) 3.7 xTD, 7 TD
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) 4.5 xTD, 5 TD
Puka Nacua (LAR) 3.8 xTD, 5 TD
Parker Washington (JAX) 3.2 xTD, 5 TD
Jameson Williams (DET) 3.2 xTD, 5 TD
Luther Burden III (CHI) 3.2 xTD, 4 TD

↖️ RUNNING HOT
Tee Higgins (CIN) 2.8 xTD, 6 TD
Stefon Diggs (WAS) 2.4 xTD, 5 TD
DeMario Douglas (NE) 2.2 xTD, 4 TD
Tre Tucker (LV) 2.2 xTD, 4 TD
Justin Jefferson (MIN) 2.3 xTD, 4 TD
Davante Adams (LAR) 2.9 xTD, 4 TD

↘️ DUE FOR TDS
Michael Wilson (ARI) 7.4 xTD, 2 TD
Rome Odunze (CHI) 3.4 xTD, 1 TD
DK Metcalf (PIT) 3.1 xTD, 1 TD
Malik Nabers (NYG) 3.5 xTD, 2 TD
Chris Olave (NO) 3.4 xTD, 2 TD
Tetairoa McMillan (CAR) 3.9 xTD, 3 TD
Denzel Boston (CLE) 3.5 xTD, 3 TD

↙️ LOW TD ROLE
Makai Lemon (PHI) 1.0 xTD, 1 TD
KC Concepcion (CLE) 1.2 xTD, 1 TD
Keenan Allen (SF) 1.7 xTD, 1 TD
Drake London (ATL) 1.8 xTD, 1 TD
Carnell Tate (TEN) 1.9 xTD, 1 TD
Malik Washington (MIA) 2.1 xTD, 1 TD
Josh Downs (KC) 2.2 xTD, 1 TD
Xavier Worthy (KC) 2.4 xTD, 1 TD
Jaylen Waddle (DEN) 2.1 xTD, 2 TD
Zay Flowers (BAL) 1.5 xTD, 3 TD
Xavier Hutchinson (HOU) 2.7 xTD, 2 TD
George Pickens (DAL) 2.8 xTD, 2 TD
Jalen Coker (CAR) 2.0 xTD, 3 TD
Courtland Sutton (DEN) 3.0 xTD, 2 TD
Ryan Flournoy (DAL) 3.0 xTD, 2 TD
Wan'Dale Robinson (TEN) 2.2 xTD, 3 TD
Emeka Egbuka (TB) 2.5 xTD, 3 TD
Garrett Wilson (NYJ) 2.9 xTD, 3 TD
Devaughn Vele (NO) 2.9 xTD, 3 TD

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Every WR on the chart

Every player on the chart, grouped by corner, the same order as the caption.

Player	Team	Expected TDs	Scrimmage TDs
Earning & scoring · top right
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA	4.9	9
CeeDee Lamb	DAL	6.0	7
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN	4.3	7
Matthew Golden	GB	5.7	5
Christian Watson	GB	3.7	7
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET	4.5	5
Puka Nacua	LAR	3.8	5
Parker Washington	JAX	3.2	5
Jameson Williams	DET	3.2	5
Luther Burden III	CHI	3.2	4
Running hot · top left
Tee Higgins	CIN	2.8	6
Stefon Diggs	WAS	2.4	5
DeMario Douglas	NE	2.2	4
Tre Tucker	LV	2.2	4
Justin Jefferson	MIN	2.3	4
Davante Adams	LAR	2.9	4
Due for TDs · bottom right
Michael Wilson	ARI	7.4	2
Rome Odunze	CHI	3.4	1
DK Metcalf	PIT	3.1	1
Malik Nabers	NYG	3.5	2
Chris Olave	NO	3.4	2
Tetairoa McMillan	CAR	3.9	3
Denzel Boston	CLE	3.5	3
Low TD role · bottom left
Makai Lemon	PHI	1.0	1
KC Concepcion	CLE	1.2	1
Keenan Allen	SF	1.7	1
Drake London	ATL	1.8	1
Carnell Tate	TEN	1.9	1
Malik Washington	MIA	2.1	1
Josh Downs	KC	2.2	1
Xavier Worthy	KC	2.4	1
Jaylen Waddle	DEN	2.1	2
Zay Flowers	BAL	1.5	3
Xavier Hutchinson	HOU	2.7	2
George Pickens	DAL	2.8	2
Jalen Coker	CAR	2.0	3
Courtland Sutton	DEN	3.0	2
Ryan Flournoy	DAL	3.0	2
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN	2.2	3
Emeka Egbuka	TB	2.5	3
Garrett Wilson	NYJ	2.9	3
Devaughn Vele	NO	2.9	3

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Minimums scale with the season (QBs 15 attempts a week, RBs 8 carries, WRs 5 targets, TEs 3). Expected points price every carry and target by where it happened. Built from the same data as the Charts gallery; every chart saves as a 1080 × 1350 post.