Charts· WR expected points

Expected vs. actual PPR points (2026, Weeks 1–9), min. 45 targets

42 WRs with 45+ targets through Week 9 of 2026: expected PPR per game across, actual PPR per game up, split at the averages. Volume & production (top right): Puka Nacua, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and CeeDee Lamb. Low volume (bottom left): Courtland Sutton, Makai Lemon and Xavier Worthy.

Expected = every target priced by depth and field position

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42WRs on the chart

1–9weeks of 2026

45min. targets

+0.87correlation (r)

Each logo is one player, placed by his two numbers. The dashed lines are the averages, and each corner is named for what a player in it is doing; on the diagonal the two are equal. Tap a logo or a name for the numbers, tap again to spotlight him.

The caption

42 WRs · 2069 characters

WR EXPECTED POINTS

Expected vs. actual PPR points (2026, Weeks 1–9), min. 45 targets

↗️ VOLUME & PRODUCTION
Puka Nacua (LAR) 22.7 xPPR/g, 25.1 PPR/g
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) 19.6 xPPR/g, 25.7 PPR/g
CeeDee Lamb (DAL) 21.6 xPPR/g, 22.4 PPR/g
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) 19.1 xPPR/g, 19.7 PPR/g
Matthew Golden (GB) 18.9 xPPR/g, 18.0 PPR/g
Chris Olave (NO) 18.2 xPPR/g, 17.7 PPR/g
Ja'Marr Chase (CIN) 16.3 xPPR/g, 20.0 PPR/g
Tee Higgins (CIN) 14.9 xPPR/g, 20.0 PPR/g
Christian Watson (GB) 14.9 xPPR/g, 19.9 PPR/g
Malik Nabers (NYG) 17.0 xPPR/g, 16.2 PPR/g
Davante Adams (LAR) 15.4 xPPR/g, 17.0 PPR/g
Tetairoa McMillan (CAR) 16.0 xPPR/g, 15.8 PPR/g
Garrett Wilson (NYJ) 13.8 xPPR/g, 14.2 PPR/g

↖️ OUTSCORING THEIR VOLUME
Zay Flowers (BAL) 13.1 xPPR/g, 15.9 PPR/g
Luther Burden III (CHI) 12.9 xPPR/g, 15.6 PPR/g
Parker Washington (JAX) 12.7 xPPR/g, 13.7 PPR/g

↘️ VOLUME, NOT PRODUCING
Michael Wilson (ARI) 19.0 xPPR/g, 13.4 PPR/g
DK Metcalf (PIT) 14.2 xPPR/g, 9.7 PPR/g
Emeka Egbuka (TB) 13.7 xPPR/g, 11.1 PPR/g
George Pickens (DAL) 13.7 xPPR/g, 13.0 PPR/g

↙️ LOW VOLUME
Courtland Sutton (DEN) 9.4 xPPR/g, 7.1 PPR/g
Makai Lemon (PHI) 9.4 xPPR/g, 8.2 PPR/g
Xavier Worthy (KC) 9.9 xPPR/g, 8.3 PPR/g
Ryan Flournoy (DAL) 9.3 xPPR/g, 9.3 PPR/g
Jaylen Waddle (DEN) 9.9 xPPR/g, 8.7 PPR/g
Xavier Hutchinson (HOU) 10.4 xPPR/g, 8.3 PPR/g
Josh Downs (KC) 10.7 xPPR/g, 8.3 PPR/g
DeMario Douglas (NE) 8.9 xPPR/g, 10.9 PPR/g
KC Concepcion (CLE) 10.2 xPPR/g, 10.0 PPR/g
Wan'Dale Robinson (TEN) 10.3 xPPR/g, 9.9 PPR/g
Malik Washington (MIA) 10.8 xPPR/g, 9.7 PPR/g
Rome Odunze (CHI) 10.9 xPPR/g, 10.1 PPR/g
Keenan Allen (SF) 11.9 xPPR/g, 10.1 PPR/g
Devaughn Vele (NO) 11.6 xPPR/g, 11.2 PPR/g
Tre Tucker (LV) 11.1 xPPR/g, 12.1 PPR/g
Denzel Boston (CLE) 12.2 xPPR/g, 11.2 PPR/g
Jameson Williams (DET) 11.1 xPPR/g, 13.2 PPR/g
Jalen Coker (CAR) 11.9 xPPR/g, 12.6 PPR/g
Carnell Tate (TEN) 12.7 xPPR/g, 11.6 PPR/g
Stefon Diggs (WAS) 12.1 xPPR/g, 12.9 PPR/g
Drake London (ATL) 12.5 xPPR/g, 13.3 PPR/g
Justin Jefferson (MIN) 12.8 xPPR/g, 13.3 PPR/g

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Every WR on the chart

Every player on the chart, grouped by corner, the same order as the caption.

Player	Team	Expected PPR per game	Actual PPR per game
Volume & production · top right
Puka Nacua	LAR	22.7	25.1
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA	19.6	25.7
CeeDee Lamb	DAL	21.6	22.4
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET	19.1	19.7
Matthew Golden	GB	18.9	18.0
Chris Olave	NO	18.2	17.7
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN	16.3	20.0
Tee Higgins	CIN	14.9	20.0
Christian Watson	GB	14.9	19.9
Malik Nabers	NYG	17.0	16.2
Davante Adams	LAR	15.4	17.0
Tetairoa McMillan	CAR	16.0	15.8
Garrett Wilson	NYJ	13.8	14.2
Outscoring their volume · top left
Zay Flowers	BAL	13.1	15.9
Luther Burden III	CHI	12.9	15.6
Parker Washington	JAX	12.7	13.7
Volume, not producing · bottom right
Michael Wilson	ARI	19.0	13.4
DK Metcalf	PIT	14.2	9.7
Emeka Egbuka	TB	13.7	11.1
George Pickens	DAL	13.7	13.0
Low volume · bottom left
Courtland Sutton	DEN	9.4	7.1
Makai Lemon	PHI	9.4	8.2
Xavier Worthy	KC	9.9	8.3
Ryan Flournoy	DAL	9.3	9.3
Jaylen Waddle	DEN	9.9	8.7
Xavier Hutchinson	HOU	10.4	8.3
Josh Downs	KC	10.7	8.3
DeMario Douglas	NE	8.9	10.9
KC Concepcion	CLE	10.2	10.0
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN	10.3	9.9
Malik Washington	MIA	10.8	9.7
Rome Odunze	CHI	10.9	10.1
Keenan Allen	SF	11.9	10.1
Devaughn Vele	NO	11.6	11.2
Tre Tucker	LV	11.1	12.1
Denzel Boston	CLE	12.2	11.2
Jameson Williams	DET	11.1	13.2
Jalen Coker	CAR	11.9	12.6
Carnell Tate	TEN	12.7	11.6
Stefon Diggs	WAS	12.1	12.9
Drake London	ATL	12.5	13.3
Justin Jefferson	MIN	12.8	13.3

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Minimums scale with the season (QBs 15 attempts a week, RBs 8 carries, WRs 5 targets, TEs 3). Expected points price every carry and target by where it happened. Built from the same data as the Charts gallery; every chart saves as a 1080 × 1350 post.