Charts· QB progressions

First-read throw rate vs. EPA per dropback (2026, Weeks 1–9), min. 135 attempts

31 QBs with 135+ attempts through Week 9 of 2026: first-read throw rate across, EPA per dropback up, split at the averages. First look, it works (top right): Jordan Love, Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence. Slow & stuck (bottom left): Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray and Justin Herbert.

First read = the QB’s first read on the play

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31QBs on the chart

1–9weeks of 2026

135min. attempts

+0.08correlation (r)

Each logo is one player, placed by his two numbers. The dashed lines are the averages, and each corner is named for what a player in it is doing. Tap a logo or a name for the numbers, tap again to spotlight him.

The caption

31 QBs · 1755 characters

QB PROGRESSIONS

First-read throw rate vs. EPA per dropback (2026, Weeks 1–9), min. 135 attempts

↗️ FIRST LOOK, IT WORKS
Jordan Love (GB) 65% to 1st read, +0.18 EPA/db
Joe Burrow (CIN) 61% to 1st read, +0.25 EPA/db
Trevor Lawrence (JAX) 58% to 1st read, +0.28 EPA/db
Brock Purdy (SF) 58% to 1st read, +0.25 EPA/db
Dak Prescott (DAL) 62% to 1st read, +0.15 EPA/db
C.J. Stroud (HOU) 60% to 1st read, +0.17 EPA/db
Jared Goff (DET) 56% to 1st read, +0.21 EPA/db
Bryce Young (CAR) 60% to 1st read, +0.06 EPA/db
Matthew Stafford (LAR) 57% to 1st read, +0.05 EPA/db

↖️ WORKS THROUGH READS
Patrick Mahomes (KC) 44% to 1st read, +0.15 EPA/db
Caleb Williams (CHI) 46% to 1st read, +0.15 EPA/db
Drake Maye (NE) 45% to 1st read, +0.10 EPA/db
Josh Allen (BUF) 50% to 1st read, +0.19 EPA/db
Geno Smith (NYJ) 47% to 1st read, +0.08 EPA/db
Kirk Cousins (MIN) 53% to 1st read, +0.11 EPA/db

↘️ LOCKS ON, STRUGGLES
Jacoby Brissett (BAL) 66% to 1st read, -0.08 EPA/db
Jayden Daniels (WAS) 68% to 1st read, -0.02 EPA/db
Daniel Jones (IND) 58% to 1st read, -0.20 EPA/db
Cam Ward (TEN) 61% to 1st read, -0.12 EPA/db
Jameis Winston (NYG) 62% to 1st read, -0.09 EPA/db
Michael Penix Jr. (ATL) 65% to 1st read, +0.01 EPA/db
Jalen Hurts (PHI) 57% to 1st read, -0.08 EPA/db
Deshaun Watson (CLE) 57% to 1st read, -0.04 EPA/db

↙️ SLOW & STUCK
Baker Mayfield (TB) 50% to 1st read, -0.29 EPA/db
Kyler Murray (MIN) 45% to 1st read, -0.12 EPA/db
Justin Herbert (LAC) 52% to 1st read, -0.28 EPA/db
Malik Willis (MIA) 50% to 1st read, -0.12 EPA/db
Bo Nix (DEN) 47% to 1st read, +0.01 EPA/db
Aaron Rodgers (PIT) 52% to 1st read, -0.11 EPA/db
Sam Darnold (SEA) 51% to 1st read, -0.07 EPA/db
Tyler Shough (NO) 54% to 1st read, -0.02 EPA/db

More charts like this ➡️ GWTTKB.com (link in bio)

Every QB on the chart

Every player on the chart, grouped by corner, the same order as the caption.

Player	Team	First-read throw rate	EPA per dropback
First look, it works · top right
Jordan Love	GB	65%	+0.18
Joe Burrow	CIN	61%	+0.25
Trevor Lawrence	JAX	58%	+0.28
Brock Purdy	SF	58%	+0.25
Dak Prescott	DAL	62%	+0.15
C.J. Stroud	HOU	60%	+0.17
Jared Goff	DET	56%	+0.21
Bryce Young	CAR	60%	+0.06
Matthew Stafford	LAR	57%	+0.05
Works through reads · top left
Patrick Mahomes	KC	44%	+0.15
Caleb Williams	CHI	46%	+0.15
Drake Maye	NE	45%	+0.10
Josh Allen	BUF	50%	+0.19
Geno Smith	NYJ	47%	+0.08
Kirk Cousins	MIN	53%	+0.11
Locks on, struggles · bottom right
Jacoby Brissett	BAL	66%	-0.08
Jayden Daniels	WAS	68%	-0.02
Daniel Jones	IND	58%	-0.20
Cam Ward	TEN	61%	-0.12
Jameis Winston	NYG	62%	-0.09
Michael Penix Jr.	ATL	65%	+0.01
Jalen Hurts	PHI	57%	-0.08
Deshaun Watson	CLE	57%	-0.04
Slow & stuck · bottom left
Baker Mayfield	TB	50%	-0.29
Kyler Murray	MIN	45%	-0.12
Justin Herbert	LAC	52%	-0.28
Malik Willis	MIA	50%	-0.12
Bo Nix	DEN	47%	+0.01
Aaron Rodgers	PIT	52%	-0.11
Sam Darnold	SEA	51%	-0.07
Tyler Shough	NO	54%	-0.02

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