QB · DAL · GWTTKB

Dak Prescott — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 18.46 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 78.5, usage worth 19.

33 years old · 10 seasons of experience · 2016 draft class

Updated 2026-08-16 · free, no account, no paywall
Every figure below comes from our database. Where a stat is not held, the row is absent rather than zero.
ADP 78.5
Consensus across 4 books, standard deviation 10.9, 23.8 picks between cheapest and priciest. Cheapest on espn, priciest on cbs.
SLEEPER85.9
ESPN88
YAHOO75.7
UNDERDOG80.5
CBS64.2
FFA79

Draft-room facts

Goes aroundRound 7, pick 7 in a 12-team draft
Positional rankQB7
Bye week14
ADP standard deviation10.9 picks

What we project for 2026

Our board has him at 336.9 points, 20.1 per game — 4,714 passing yards, 31.9 passing TDs, 203 rushing yards. That is QB3, 79 overall.

The range runs from a floor of 16.1 points per game to a ceiling of 27.1, with the median at 20.1. Boom rate 35%, bust rate 20%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.

He goes at 78.5 on consensus and our board has him 79. Those agree, so there is no market disagreement to exploit. The question is whether you want the profile, not whether it is mispriced.

Our written view

a career-high in pass attempts last year is directly tied to the same mid-season addition (George Pickens) that helped Lawrence — Pickens both raises the offense's ceiling AND insures against collapse if Lamb misses time again, since last year's worst stretches specifically correlated with Lamb being out with no real second option. A rookie WR is also a real, buzzed-about camp factor as a shallow-area complement, making the whole offense harder to defend.

buy · medium conviction · 2026-08

The offense he plays in, 2026

Dallas Cowboys returns 6 of 6 continuity slots — the whole offense is intact. Dak Prescott at quarterback, Brian Schottenheimer as head coach, Klayton Adams calling it. The offense projects to 35.8 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 27.1 rushes.

In: Sam Howell (qb2), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (wr5), Anthony Smith (wr7).

The projected target split across the offense:

CeeDee Lamb22.7%
George Pickens21.4%
Jake Ferguson12.9%
Ryan Flournoy8.8%
Javonte Williams8.2%
Luke Schoonmaker6.5%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

What the offense looks like: Cowboys offense remains essentially the same in 2026 but will be paired with a significantly more competitive defense. This is very important because there were multiple games last year where Cowboys had to pull starters in the 4th quarter because they were getting blown out. This is a high powered offense that can sustain 2 WR1s in fantasy. The real question remains if George Pickens is going to land an extension in Dallas. There is no TRUE line of sight into this yet. Jerry Jones says he wants him to be a Cowboy for the long term, but we can't trust Jerry. If someone paid enough George is gone. Ceedee is not expected to be a top 5 WR with Pickens playing at his 2025 levels, but can absolutely be a top 10 PPR fantasy WR. Ceedee is an elite WR. Cowboys also lock down Javonte Williams on 3 year exention.

Key additions: George Pickens was franchised tagged & will play 2026 season in Dallas (barring trade or hold out).

Key departures: WR Jalen Tolbert signed with Miami Dolphins (minor)

Notes: Dallas has added significantly on defense this offseason and should be VERY competitive. Multiple games last year caused starters to be benched due to blow outs. Dak remains a highly productive aging QB with a well balanced pass and rush offense. Javonte Williams landed massive 3 year extension with Cowboys & George Pickens has been franchised tagged with no current plans to land long term extension. Ceedee Lamb looks to get back on track as a top 5 WR following a rough 2025. Pickens and Ceedee should both be viewed as Dynasty WR1s. Jake Ferguson is expected to also have a great 2026 season. We want to own as many pieces of this offense as we can FOR THE RIGHT PRICE.

How the volume number was reached: Same QB Dak Prescott returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (36.7 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 35.7 att/g.

How the quarterback projection was built

Base case 294.9 PPR points, with a bear case of 203.8 and a bull case of 396.2, and a comp mean of 289.7. The model puts 40% probability on him beating this and 60% on falling short. Drawn from 20 comparable quarterback seasons.

Comparable seasonWhat he actually scoredDistance
Kirk Cousins 2015300.30.2
Andy Dalton 2013233.20.3
Philip Rivers 2017320.20.3
Aaron Rodgers 2018312.50.3
Matthew Stafford 2017212.20.3

Cross-check against the dynasty market: his production ranks in the 86th percentile and his value in the 52th, which the engine reads as well below production. Players with a similar production-against-value gap saw dynasty value move 1.2% over the following year, across 15 cases — a dynasty signal, not a 2026 scoring one.

Offensive environment: DAL rates 25.7 against a league average of 23, 2.7 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season+1.4 · neutral
Weeks 1–6+3.5 · easier
Weeks 12–17-4 · harder
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)+2.3 · easier

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

What happened when he missed time

From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.

SeasonGames missedMain beneficiaryTheir PPR gain
20224Cooper Rush+10.6
20242Cooper Rush+4.4
Read the full Dak Prescott study →

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved +7.7% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.8 elite seasons and 3.1 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

PlayerSeasonTheir PPGSimilarityNext year
Baker Mayfield202421.554%0%
Jared Goff20231752%+22.3%
Patrick Mahomes202317.546%-12.8%
Patrick Mahomes202417.745%+5.8%
Baker Mayfield202316.143%+58.5%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 3 gained value, 1 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

02,0004,0006,0008,000202120222023202420252026
Monthly superflex value, 2020-06 to 2026-07. Down 40% across the series, peaking at 8,576.

The player

Draft capital and athletic profile

Drafted2016, round 4, pick 135 by DAL
CollegeMississippi St.
Age at draft23
Height6′2″
Weight226 lb
40-yard dash4.79s
Vertical32.5″
Broad jump116″
3-cone7.11s
Shuttle4.32s

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game19.5
Week-to-week variation0.4
Boom rate15.8%
Bust rate14%
Games missed per season1
Injury historyright Thumb, Hamstring
Correlation between his posted line and his actual score-0.3

That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.

Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.

The record, season by season

2025 · DAL · 17 games

His best game was Week 4 against GB — 30.96 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 40-40. His worst was Week 18 against NYG at 0.7, on 0 targets, final score 17-34. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 9 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 20.7; in the 9 decided by more, 16.5. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 19 points per game. He scored 18.46, 3% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1PHI20-247.8201300%100%
2NYG40-3722.14031720%100%
3CHI14-3112.0400010%86%
4GB40-4030.9601240%100%
5NYJ37-2228.28072840%100%
6CAR27-3022.3402-130%100%
7WAS44-2223.2605730%100%
8DEN24-446.62063100%88%
9ARI17-2715.4043410%100%
11LV33-1624.3204-440%100%
12PHI24-2127.0605930%100%
13KC31-2820.603-220%100%
14DET30-4418.44031410%100%
15MIN26-3411.9601200%100%
16LAC17-3419.16021420%91%
17WAS30-2322.68042420%100%
18NYG17-340.702-100%51%

Production

Carries53
Rushing yards177
Touchdowns32
Points per game18.46
Yards per carry3.34

Role

Snap share95.06%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game-0.55

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share8.2%
Goal-line carry share13.3%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs1.8

Who else ate

The offense threw it 624 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

George Pickens22.57%
CeeDee Lamb19.28%
Jake Ferguson16.8%
Ryan Flournoy9.23%
Javonte Williams8.4%
Kavontae Turpin6.26%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Dak Prescott16019.570%
Joe Milton100.70%

Blowouts against close games

6 of his 17 games were blowouts, 27.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 14.35 in those and 20.7 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2024 · DAL · 8 games

His best game was Week 3 against BAL — 29.86 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 25-28. His worst was Week 6 against DET at 3.22, on 0 targets, final score 9-47. Across 8 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 17.8; in the 3 decided by more, 9.2. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 17.3 points per game. He scored 14.57, 15.7% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1CLE33-1711.4601310%98%
2NO19-4412.92021210%96%
3BAL25-2829.8602730%100%
4NYG20-1516.7402-120%100%
5PIT20-1716.3801320%100%
6DET9-473.2201100%74%
8SF24-3013.6201-120%100%
9ATL21-2712.32033010%61%

Production

Carries13
Rushing yards54
Touchdowns12
Points per game14.57
Yards per carry4.15

Role

Snap share91.13%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game0.56

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share3.5%
Goal-line carry share13.3%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs0.85

Who else ate

The offense threw it 635 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

CeeDee Lamb24.56%
Jake Ferguson13.89%
Jalen Tolbert12.76%
Brandin Cooks8.72%
Kavontae Turpin8.4%
Rico Dowdle7.92%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Dak Prescott7014.890%
Cooper Rush1012.320%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 8 games were blowouts, 13.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8.07 in those and 17.78 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2023 · DAL · 17 games

His best game was Week 10 against NYG — 37.86 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 49-17. His worst was Week 5 against SF at 4.32, on 0 targets, final score 10-42. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 8 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 24.1; in the 12 decided by more, 18.5. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 17.9 points per game. He scored 20.17, 15.9% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1NYG40-06.3201600%88%
2NYJ30-1019.6061420%100%
3ARI16-2814.36032410%100%
4NE38-314.3401-110%90%
5SF10-424.3201210%80%
6LAC20-1724.88074020%100%
8LA43-2028.06041940%86%
9PHI23-2828.36061430%100%
10NYG49-1737.86021750%77%
11CAR33-1016.1602620%85%
12WAS45-1032.24011040%100%
13SEA41-3528.26072330%100%
14PHI33-1317.94031120%100%
15BUF10-316.06042700%100%
16MIA20-2218.62052520%100%
17DET20-1920.302520%100%
18WAS38-1025.1600040%90%

Production

Carries55
Rushing yards242
Touchdowns38
Points per game20.17
Yards per carry4.4

Role

Snap share93.88%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game0.77

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share14.4%
Goal-line carry share6.9%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs1.95

Who else ate

The offense threw it 614 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

CeeDee Lamb29.92%
Jake Ferguson16.86%
Brandin Cooks13.39%
Tony Pollard11.07%
Michael Gallup9.42%
Jalen Tolbert5.95%

Blowouts against close games

11 of his 17 games were blowouts, 60.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 18.91 in those and 24.08 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2022 · DAL · 12 games

His best game was Week 16 against PHI — 27.98 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 40-34. His worst was Week 1 against TB at 4.46, on 0 targets, final score 3-19. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 19.2; in the 7 decided by more, 14.7. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 17.2 points per game. He scored 16.55, 2% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1TB3-194.46021100%77%
7DET24-612.2803010%100%
8CHI49-2925.4053430%100%
10GB28-3119.204630%100%
11MIN40-320.64031620%89%
12NYG28-2014.8402420%100%
13IND54-1916.800030%96%
14HOU27-2313.66062310%100%
15JAX34-4020.24052030%100%
16PHI40-3427.98064130%100%
17TEN27-1314.38031120%100%
18WAS6-268.72061610%91%

Production

Carries45
Rushing yards182
Touchdowns24
Points per game16.55
Yards per carry4.04

Role

Snap share96.08%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game0.46

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share11.9%
Goal-line carry share3.3%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs1.14

Who else ate

The offense threw it 556 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

CeeDee Lamb28.62%
Dalton Schultz16.33%
Noah Brown13.58%
Michael Gallup13.58%
Tony Pollard10.09%
Ezekiel Elliott4.22%

Blowouts against close games

5 of his 12 games were blowouts, 42.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 16.77 in those and 19.18 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2021 · DAL · 16 games

His best game was Week 18 against PHI — 31.8 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 51-26. His worst was Week 11 against KC at 2.64, on 0 targets, final score 9-19. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 10 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 21; in the 9 decided by more, 19.3. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 19 points per game. He scored 20.04, 5.6% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1TB29-3127.42041330%99%
2LAC20-177.4800000%100%
3PHI41-2120.1209630%96%
4CAR36-2827.02043540%100%
5NYG44-2020.6802630%100%
6NE35-2926.8031030%100%
9DEN16-3018.88021620%100%
10ATL43-326.3402530%81%
11KC9-192.6400000%100%
12LV33-3625.301320%100%
13NO27-1711.2203-310%100%
14WAS27-209.94071510%100%
15NYG21-610.5802-110%100%
16WAS56-1431.3042140%84%
17ARI22-2523.04052030%100%
18PHI51-2631.800050%82%

Production

Carries48
Rushing yards146
Touchdowns38
Points per game20.04
Yards per carry3.04

Role

Snap share96.38%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game-1.46

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share13.3%
Goal-line carry share21.7%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs2.78

Who else ate

The offense threw it 647 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

CeeDee Lamb18.87%
Amari Cooper16.35%
Dalton Schultz16.35%
Ezekiel Elliott10.22%
Michael Gallup9.75%
Cedrick Wilson9.59%

Blowouts against close games

5 of his 16 games were blowouts, 40.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 26.05 in those and 21 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2020 · DAL · 5 games

His best game was Week 2 against ATL — 39.8 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 40-39. His worst was Week 5 against NYG at 13.44, on 1 targets, final score 37-34. Across 5 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 0 times.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 23.6 points per game. He scored 27.13, 15% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1LA17-2017.64033010%100%
2ATL40-3939.8051840%98%
3SEA31-3827.48062630%100%
4CLE38-4937.28021240%100%
5NYG37-3413.44112713%67%

Production

Receptions1
Targets1
Receiving yards11
Carries18
Rushing yards93
Touchdowns13
Points per game27.13
Yards per target11
Catch rate100%
Yards per carry5.17

Role

Snap share93%
Target share0.6%
Air-yards share0.84%
WOPR0.014
RACR0.22

Efficiency

Average depth of target10
Yards after catch per reception1
Yards before catch per reception10
Total YAC1
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted152.1
Receiving EPA per game0.53
Rushing EPA per game1.98

Scoring position

Red-zone targets1
Red-zone target share1.2%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share8.6%
Goal-line carry share11.4%
Expected receiving TDs0.14
Actual receiving TDs1
Receiving TD luck0.86
Expected rushing TDs1.84

Who else ate

The offense threw it 638 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Amari Cooper21.17%
CeeDee Lamb18.08%
Michael Gallup17.1%
Dalton Schultz14.5%
Ezekiel Elliott11.56%
Tony Pollard6.51%
Ask the Coach about Dak Prescott →
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