QB · ARI · GWTTKB

Jacoby Brissett — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 16.25 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 207.5, usage worth 18.4.

33 years old · 10 seasons of experience · 2016 draft class

Updated 2026-08-16 · free, no account, no paywall
Every figure below comes from our database. Where a stat is not held, the row is absent rather than zero.
ADP 207.5
Consensus across 2 books, standard deviation 52.9, 74.8 picks between cheapest and priciest. Cheapest on sleeper, priciest on espn.
SLEEPER244.9
ESPN170.1
UNDERDOG198.6
FFA310

Draft-room facts

Goes aroundRound 18, pick 4 in a 12-team draft
Positional rankQB73
Bye week14
ADP standard deviation52.9 picks

What we project for 2026

Our board has him at 212.6 points, 12.7 per game — 3,230 passing yards, 18.2 passing TDs, 119 rushing yards. That is QB5, 283 overall.

The range runs from a floor of 10.2 points per game to a ceiling of 17.6, with the median at 12.7. Boom rate 39%, bust rate 20%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.

He goes at 207.5 on consensus and our board has him 283. We rank him 75.5 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.

Our written view

acknowledged as the presumptive Week 1 starter on a team many people are currently overrating, but flagged as an almost-certain in-season replacement candidate given how brutal the second-half schedule is and how bad the surrounding roster is — very unlikely to still be the guy taking snaps by the fantasy playoffs specifically.

watch · medium conviction · 2026-08

The offense he plays in, 2026

Arizona Cardinals returns 2 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1, rb1, hc, oc. Jacoby Brissett at quarterback, Mike LaFleur as head coach, Nathaniel Hackett calling it. The offense projects to 31.9 pass attempts a game at low confidence and 24.8 rushes.

In: Carson Beck (qb), Carson Beck (qb2), Gardner Minshew II (qb2), Kendrick Bourne (wr3), Devin Duvernay (wr5), Reggie Virgil (wr6), Jeremiyah Love (rb1), Tyler Allgeier (rb2). Out: Kyler Murray (qb), Greg Dortch (wr3), Zay Jones (wr4), Jalen Brooks (wr6), Emari Demercado (rb2), Michael Carter (rb3).

The projected target split across the offense:

Trey McBride21.8%
Marvin Harrison Jr14.4%
Michael Wilson13.9%
Jeremiyah Love10%
Elijah Higgins6.2%
James Conner6.1%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

What the offense looks like: The Cardinals have interesting pieces on their offense but the offensive line and lack of a franchise QB is holding them back. IF Arizona can figure out the QB position, player value across the board SHOULD explode (Mcbride already ballin). Jeremiyah Love COULD have a slower start in 2026 but is a candidate to have a top 10 PPR fantasy season 100%.

Key additions: Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame) RB drafted 1st round 3rd overall. drafted guard Chase Bisontis 2nd round (Texas A&M). Drafed Carson Beck QB Miami 3rd round. Drafted WR Reggie Virgil (Texas Tech) 5th round. Signed G Issac Seumalo to 3/$31M (starting O line). Signed Tyler Allgeier ATL RB to 2 year $12.25M deal. Signed Kendrick Bourne 2/$10M deal. Signed QB Gardner Minshew II 1/$8M. Signed Devin Duvernay WR on 1 year (kick returner most likely).

Key departures: Kyler Murray was cut & signed with Minnesota. WR3 Greg Dortch left to Detroit. RB4 Emari Demercado left in free agency.

Notes: Love arrives as 1.03 pick — immediate RB1 candidate. Mike LaFleur hired as new HC (Shanahan & McVay tree). OC is Nathaniel Hackett. Arizona signed Tyler Allgeier from Atlanta, will compete with James Conner for Backup. Expect Trey Benson COULD be traded or compete for backup. Cardinals drafted Carson Beck Round 3 of 2026 draft & MAY compete with Brissett who is looking for a new contract. Brissett likely week 1 starter. Michael Wilson MAY establish himself as a TRUE WR2 in 2026 (Trending in right direction). MHJ WR1 breakout candidate, but has yet to demonstrate consistency. If the O line does not improve, Jeremiyah Love will have a difficult rookie season similar to Ashton Jeanty in Las Vegas. Arizona will need better QB play for any players to have consistent weekly fantasy upside in 2026. It is possible Brissett can continue to support volume for McBride, but one of Michael Wilson or MHJ will have to benefit. Both cannot have high finishes most likely.

How the volume number was reached: New QB Jacoby Brissett, avg 28.8 att/g over 2025,2024; Regressed 65% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 31.9 att/g; New OC Nathaniel Hackett — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Mike LaFleur.

How the quarterback projection was built

Base case 211.7 PPR points, with a bear case of 100 and a bull case of 306.7, and a comp mean of 207.4. The model puts 30% probability on him beating this and 70% on falling short. Drawn from 20 comparable quarterback seasons.

Comparable seasonWhat he actually scoredDistance
Daniel Jones 20191800.3
Robert Griffin 201389.40.3
Gardner Minshew 2019160.70.4
Case Keenum 2017214.90.4
Carson Wentz 2019198.40.4

Cross-check against the dynasty market: his production ranks in the 35th percentile and his value in the 14th, which the engine reads as below production. Players with a similar production-against-value gap saw dynasty value move -3.6% over the following year, across 36 cases — a dynasty signal, not a 2026 scoring one.

Offensive environment: ARI rates 19.1 against a league average of 23, 3.8 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season-0.8 · neutral
Weeks 1–6-0.5 · neutral
Weeks 12–17-0.8 · neutral
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)-1 · neutral

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved +346.5% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, QBs crash the following year 52% of the time (hold 48%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 52% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.8 elite seasons and 3.1 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

PlayerSeasonTheir PPGSimilarityNext year
Jameis Winston202411.952%-0.7%
Dak Prescott202414.650%+21.1%
Mason Rudolph20241248%+15.9%
Dak Prescott202320.246%+2%
Baker Mayfield202421.546%0%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 0 lost it and 3 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

02,000202120222023202420252026
Monthly superflex value, 2020-06 to 2026-07. Up 183% across the series, peaking at 2,766.

The player

Draft capital and athletic profile

Drafted2016, round 3, pick 91 by NWE
CollegeNorth Carolina St.
Age at draft23
Height6′4″
Weight231 lb
40-yard dash4.94s
Vertical31″
Broad jump113″
3-cone7.17s
Shuttle4.53s

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game10.2
Week-to-week variation0.8
Boom rate14.6%
Bust rate29.3%
Games missed per season0
Correlation between his posted line and his actual score0.8

The record, season by season

2025 · ARI · 14 games

His best game was Week 9 against DAL — 24.84 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 27-17. His worst was Week 5 against TEN at 0, on 0 targets, final score 21-22. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 12.8; in the 7 decided by more, 19.7. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 18.4 points per game. He scored 16.25, 11.8% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
2CAR27-220.201200%2%
5TEN21-22000000%4%
6IND27-3120.7031920%100%
7GB23-2719.76062620%100%
9DAL27-1724.8405430%100%
10SEA22-4419.42043120%96%
11SF22-4121.8802-220%100%
12JAX24-2718.68032010%98%
13TB17-2019.64031620%100%
14LA17-4519.04042220%100%
15HOU20-4020.5603630%100%
16ATL19-2610.6201510%100%
17CIN14-3716.4800020%100%
18LA20-3715.62031920%100%

Production

Carries38
Rushing yards168
Touchdowns24
Points per game16.25
Yards per carry4.42

Role

Snap share85.71%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game0.53

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share10%
Goal-line carry share15.8%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs1.45

Who else ate

The offense threw it 648 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Trey McBride27.39%
Michael Wilson20.42%
Marvin Harrison11.83%
Michael Carter7.29%
Elijah Higgins6%
Greg Dortch5.35%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Jacoby Brissett12018.940%
Kyler Murray200.10%

Blowouts against close games

6 of his 14 games were blowouts, 49.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 18.83 in those and 12.8 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2024 · NE · 7 games

His best game was Week 2 against SEA — 10.56 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 20-23. His worst was Week 17 against LAC at -0.08, on 0 targets, final score 7-40. Across 7 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 4 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 8.6; in the 3 decided by more, 3.6. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 12 points per game. He scored 6.46, 46% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1CIN16-108.04073200%100%
2SEA20-2310.5602610%100%
3NYJ3-243.9200000%69%
4SF13-307.0202310%100%
5MIA10-157.4011000%100%
8NYJ25-228.38031100%70%
17LAC7-40-0.0800000%19%

Production

Carries15
Rushing yards62
Touchdowns2
Points per game6.46
Yards per carry4.13

Role

Snap share79.71%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game0.45

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share4.3%
Goal-line carry share5.3%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs0.5

Who else ate

The offense threw it 529 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Hunter Henry19.48%
Demario Douglas17.47%
Kayshon Boutte13.65%
Austin Hooper11.85%
Rhamondre Stevenson8.23%
Kendrick Bourne7.63%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Jacoby Brissett607.550%
Drake Maye10-0.080%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 7 games were blowouts, 24% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3.62 in those and 8.6 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2023 · WAS · 2 games

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 6 points per game. He scored 11.43, 90.5% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky.

WkOppScorePPRYdsTDTgt%Snap%
15LA20-2813.86020%27%
16NYJ28-309010%44%

Production

Carries3
Rushing yards19
Touchdowns3
Points per game11.43
Yards per carry6.33

Role

Snap share35.5%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game0.65

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share1.8%
Goal-line carry share5.6%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs0.43

Who else ate

The offense threw it 636 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Terry McLaurin22%
Curtis Samuel15.17%
Jahan Dotson13.83%
Logan Thomas13%
Antonio Gibson9.83%
Brian Robinson7.17%

2022 · CLE · 14 games

His best game was Week 11 against BUF — 25.86 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 23-31. His worst was Week 14 against CIN at 0, on 0 targets, final score 10-23. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 15; in the 7 decided by more, 9.1. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 13.9 points per game. He scored 12.04, 13.5% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1CAR26-2410.88041010%100%
2NYJ30-3115.46064310%100%
3PIT29-1717.9031120%100%
4ATL20-2314.96051610%100%
5LAC28-3014.4033210%100%
6NE15-388.6401010%100%
7BAL20-2310.12031800%100%
8CIN32-1320.32061220%100%
10MIA17-3916.48074010%100%
11BUF23-3125.86072930%100%
12TB23-1713.1022710%100%
14CIN10-23000000%1%
15BAL13-30.301300%2%
17WAS24-100.201200%2%

Production

Carries49
Rushing yards243
Touchdowns14
Points per game12.04
Yards per carry4.96

Role

Snap share78.93%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game1.42

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share11.4%
Goal-line carry share10%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs1.32

Who else ate

The offense threw it 540 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Amari Cooper26.09%
Donovan Peoples-Jones18.97%
David Njoku15.81%
Kareem Hunt8.7%
Harrison Bryant8.3%
Nick Chubb7.31%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Jacoby Brissett11015.280%
Deshaun Watson300.170%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 14 games were blowouts, 27% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 15.15 in those and 14.97 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2021 · MIA · 10 games

His best game was Week 3 against LV — 20.3 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 28-31. His worst was Week 16 against NO at 0, on 0 targets, final score 20-3. Across 10 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6.1; in the 5 decided by more, 8.4. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 11.4 points per game. He scored 7.23, 36.8% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1NE17-160.402400%4%
2BUF0-355.5604800%88%
3LV28-3120.3073710%100%
4IND17-2714.7603820%100%
5TB17-451500020%100%
6JAX20-23100000%1%
9HOU17-98.4601710%99%
10BAL22-106.6401400%54%
15NYJ31-240.201200%4%
16NO20-3000000%6%

Production

Carries19
Rushing yards70
Touchdowns6
Points per game7.23
Yards per carry3.68

Role

Snap share55.6%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game0.3

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share4.3%
Goal-line carry share11.5%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs1.3

Who else ate

The offense threw it 615 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Jaylen Waddle23.41%
Mike Gesicki18.73%
DeVante Parker12.21%
Myles Gaskin10.54%
Durham Smythe6.86%
Albert Wilson6.52%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Jacoby Brissett6011.790%
Tua Tagovailoa400.40%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 10 games were blowouts, 28.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.85 in those and 6.07 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2020 · IND · 11 games

His best game was Week 12 against TEN — 12.3 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 26-45. His worst was Week 14 against LV at -0.2, on 0 targets, final score 44-27. Across 11 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 0.3; in the 6 decided by more, 3.2. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 1.5 points per game. He scored 1.87, 13.1% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1JAX20-27000000%1%
3NYJ36-70.6802000%22%
9BAL10-24000000%1%
10TEN34-176.201210%1%
11GB34-310.902900%8%
12TEN26-4512.304320%14%
13HOU26-200.102100%4%
14LV44-27-0.202-200%5%
15HOU27-200.201200%5%
16PIT24-280.101100%1%
17JAX28-140.302300%6%

Production

Carries17
Rushing yards19
Touchdowns3
Points per game1.87
Yards per carry1.12

Role

Snap share6.18%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game0.52

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share4.1%
Goal-line carry share11.8%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs1.75

Who else ate

The offense threw it 552 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

T.Y. Hilton17.38%
Nyheim Miller-Hines14.21%
Zach Pascal13.27%
Michael Pittman11.4%
Trey Burton8.79%
Mo Alie-Cox7.29%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 11 games were blowouts, 92.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4.75 in those and 0.26 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

Ask the Coach about Jacoby Brissett →
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