Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 18.82 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 60.9, usage worth 18.5.
28 years old · 6 seasons of experience · 2020 draft class
| SLEEPER | 62.9 |
| ESPN | 53.6 |
| YAHOO | 56.6 |
| UNDERDOG | 72.3 |
| CBS | 70.4 |
| FFA | 65 |
| Goes around | Round 5, pick 13 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | QB6 |
| Bye week | 10 |
| ADP standard deviation | 7.4 picks |
Our board has him at 349.7 points, 20.8 per game — 3,887 passing yards, 25.9 passing TDs, 496 rushing yards. That is QB2, 65 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 16.7 points per game to a ceiling of 27.8, with the median at 20.8. Boom rate 34%, bust rate 20%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 60.9 on consensus and our board has him 65. We rank him 4.1 picks worse than the room drafts him, so at ADP he is mildly overpriced. That is an objection to the price and not to the player — if he falls past his slot he can be exactly the right pick.
Mid-6th for a QB who can run for 15+ TDs — strong value and far lower opportunity cost than early QB. Lower passing volume w/o AJ Brown, but the rushing floor carries it.
buy · medium conviction · 2026-06-05Philadelphia Eagles returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1, oc. Jalen Hurts at quarterback, Nick Sirianni as head coach, Sean Mannion calling it. The offense projects to 31 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 27.4 rushes.
In: Makai Lemon (wr2), Marquise Brown (wr3), Dontayvion Wicks (wr4), Elijah Moore (wr6), Quez Watkins (wr7), Dameon Pierce (rb4), Eli Stowers (te2). Out: AJ Brown (wr1), Britain Covey (wr3), Johnny Wilson (wr4), Grant Calcaterra (te2).
The projected target split across the offense:
| Devonta Smith | 17.8% |
| Dallas Goedert | 17.4% |
| Makai Lemon | 17.1% |
| Elijah Moore | 10% |
| Eli Stowers | 8.9% |
| Saquon Barkley | 6.6% |
What the offense looks like: If the Eagles can get their offense humming again, this is an offense you want to own a lot of players in. They can produce at a very high level for you. Hurts in particular regardless of play will be a top QB because of the tush push.
Key additions: Drafted WR Makai Lemon 1st round. Traded for Packers WR Dontayvion Wicks, Signed Hollywood Brown. Drafted TE Eli Stowers (great passing catching TE)
Key departures: AJ Brown. He is going to be traded to the Patriots in June 2026.
Notes: AJ Brown is going to be traded to the Patriots. He will not be on the team. Devonta Smith is primed to BREAKOUT as a WR1 IF he can maintain target share. Drafted Makai Lemon Round 1, Eli Stowers (great receiving TE who was also scouted as WR). Eagles also traded for Dontayvion Wicks from Packers who is a talented WR but hasn't put it all together yet. Signed Marquiese Brown in free agency who is expected to operate as WR3/4. There are a lot of mouths to feed on this offense and not all of them can be fantasy relevant. Saquon had a rough 2025 season but should be great in 2026 IF Jalen Hurts can improve his level of play. There are a lot of targets available with AJ Brown leaving.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Jalen Hurts returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (29.2 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 31 att/g; New OC Sean Mannion — pass rate and tempo may shift.
Base case 281.3 PPR points, with a bear case of 205.2 and a bull case of 458.5, and a comp mean of 309.9. The model puts 45% probability on him beating this and 55% on falling short. Drawn from 20 comparable quarterback seasons.
| Comparable season | What he actually scored | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton 2013 | 279.9 | 0.4 |
| Josh Allen 2019 | 467.2 | 0.4 |
| Cam Newton 2017 | 282.6 | 0.4 |
| Josh Freeman 2010 | 205.5 | 0.4 |
| Dak Prescott 2017 | 328.8 | 0.5 |
Cross-check against the dynasty market: his production ranks in the 66th percentile and his value in the 72th, which the engine reads as in line. Players with a similar production-against-value gap saw dynasty value move -13.4% over the following year, across 81 cases — a dynasty signal, not a 2026 scoring one.
Offensive environment: PHI rates 23.5 against a league average of 23, 0.5 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +7.6 · easier |
| Weeks 1–6 | +5.6 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | +4.2 · easier |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -6.1 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2 | Gardner Minshew | +17.4 |
| 2024 | 2 | Kenny Pickett | +13.7 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -21.6% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.8 elite seasons and 3.1 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 2024 | 23.7 | 64% | +12.8% |
| Josh Allen | 2023 | 23.1 | 61% | +16.3% |
| Daniel Jones | 2024 | 13.5 | 49% | +104.1% |
| Lamar Jackson | 2023 | 20.7 | 48% | +30.7% |
| Kyler Murray | 2023 | 18.3 | 48% | +4% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 5 gained value, 0 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2020, round 2, pick 53 by PHI |
| College | Oklahoma |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 6′1″ |
| Weight | 222 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.59s |
| Vertical | 35″ |
| Broad jump | 125″ |
| Career PPR per game | 19.4 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.5 |
| Boom rate | 9.5% |
| Bust rate | 16.2% |
| Games missed per season | 0.7 |
| Injury history | right Shoulder, Concussion |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | -0.04 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 12 against DAL — 30.86 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 21-24. His worst was Week 14 against LAC at 2.4, on 0 targets, final score 19-22. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 7 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 17.9; in the 5 decided by more, 20.9. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 18.5 points per game. He scored 18.82, 0.3% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DAL | 24-20 | 24.28 | 0 | 14 | 62 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | KC | 20-17 | 11.54 | 0 | 9 | 15 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | LA | 33-26 | 29.04 | 0 | 9 | 40 | 4 | 0% | 100% |
| 4 | TB | 31-25 | 19.4 | 0 | 9 | 62 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 5 | DEN | 17-21 | 19.5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 6 | NYG | 17-34 | 20.62 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 7 | MIN | 28-22 | 24.04 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 8 | NYG | 38-20 | 25.36 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 4 | 0% | 93% |
| 10 | GB | 10-7 | 12.02 | 0 | 5 | 27 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 11 | DET | 16-9 | 14.5 | 0 | 10 | 31 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 12 | DAL | 21-24 | 30.86 | 0 | 7 | 33 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 13 | CHI | 15-24 | 16.3 | 0 | 4 | 31 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 14 | LAC | 19-22 | 2.4 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 15 | LV | 31-0 | 22.9 | 0 | 7 | 39 | 3 | 0% | 75% |
| 16 | WAS | 29-18 | 19.4 | 0 | 7 | 40 | 2 | 0% | 94% |
| 17 | BUF | 13-12 | 8.9 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| Carries | 105 |
| Rushing yards | 421 |
| Touchdowns | 33 |
| Points per game | 18.82 |
| Yards per carry | 4.01 |
| Snap share | 97.63% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 1.04 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 28.1% |
| Goal-line carry share | 35.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 5.68 |
The offense threw it 497 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| A.J. Brown | 26.08% |
| DeVonta Smith | 24.35% |
| Dallas Goedert | 17.67% |
| Saquon Barkley | 10.78% |
| Jahan Dotson | 7.76% |
| Grant Calcaterra | 2.8% |
3 of his 16 games were blowouts, 22.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 22.96 in those and 17.86 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 8 against CIN — 35.14 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 37-17. His worst was Week 16 against WAS at 4.54, on 0 targets, final score 33-36. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 8 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 18.7; in the 6 decided by more, 24.5. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 18.1 points per game. He scored 21.01, 19.5% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | 34-29 | 16.42 | 0 | 13 | 33 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | ATL | 21-22 | 23.82 | 0 | 13 | 85 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | NO | 15-12 | 10.94 | 0 | 8 | 25 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 4 | TB | 16-33 | 16.32 | 0 | 8 | 20 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 6 | CLE | 20-16 | 21.86 | 0 | 14 | 33 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 7 | NYG | 28-3 | 22.76 | 0 | 7 | 22 | 3 | 0% | 82% |
| 8 | CIN | 37-17 | 35.14 | 0 | 10 | 37 | 4 | 0% | 100% |
| 9 | JAX | 28-23 | 29.9 | 0 | 13 | 67 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 10 | DAL | 34-6 | 29.68 | 0 | 7 | 56 | 4 | 0% | 79% |
| 11 | WAS | 26-18 | 18.74 | 0 | 10 | 39 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 12 | LA | 37-20 | 15.06 | 0 | 12 | 39 | 1 | 0% | 97% |
| 13 | BAL | 24-19 | 17.62 | 0 | 9 | 29 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 14 | CAR | 22-16 | 24.22 | 0 | 8 | 59 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 15 | PIT | 27-13 | 28.1 | 0 | 15 | 45 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 16 | WAS | 33-36 | 4.54 | 0 | 3 | 41 | 0 | 0% | 16% |
| Carries | 150 |
| Rushing yards | 630 |
| Touchdowns | 32 |
| Points per game | 21.01 |
| Yards per carry | 4.2 |
| Snap share | 91.6% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 2.72 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 30.8% |
| Goal-line carry share | 42% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 10.67 |
The offense threw it 448 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| A.J. Brown | 23.26% |
| DeVonta Smith | 21.34% |
| Dallas Goedert | 12.47% |
| Saquon Barkley | 10.31% |
| Jahan Dotson | 7.91% |
| Grant Calcaterra | 7.19% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 14 | 0 | 22.18 | — | 0% |
| Kenny Pickett | 1 | 0 | 4.54 | — | 0% |
5 of his 15 games were blowouts, 37.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 23.79 in those and 18.67 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 12 against BUF — 34.5 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 37-34. His worst was Week 18 against NYG at 0.6, on 0 targets, final score 10-27. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 10 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 23; in the 6 decided by more, 17.3. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 20 points per game. He scored 20.99, 3% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | 25-20 | 12.5 | 0 | 9 | 37 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | MIN | 34-28 | 25.22 | 0 | 12 | 35 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | TB | 25-11 | 19.88 | 0 | 10 | 28 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 4 | WAS | 34-31 | 24.16 | 0 | 9 | 34 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 5 | LA | 23-14 | 27.32 | 0 | 15 | 72 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 6 | NYJ | 14-20 | 19.9 | 0 | 8 | 47 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 7 | MIA | 31-17 | 23.26 | 0 | 11 | 21 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 8 | WAS | 38-31 | 27.36 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 0% | 100% |
| 9 | DAL | 28-23 | 25.88 | 0 | 10 | 36 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 11 | KC | 21-17 | 18.9 | 0 | 12 | 29 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 12 | BUF | 37-34 | 34.5 | 0 | 14 | 65 | 5 | 0% | 100% |
| 13 | SF | 19-42 | 23.92 | 0 | 7 | 20 | 2 | 0% | 93% |
| 14 | DAL | 13-33 | 8.88 | 0 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 0% | 96% |
| 15 | SEA | 17-20 | 21.92 | 0 | 13 | 82 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 16 | NYG | 33-25 | 23.44 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 17 | ARI | 31-35 | 19.18 | 0 | 8 | 25 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 18 | NYG | 10-27 | 0.6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 43% |
| Carries | 157 |
| Rushing yards | 605 |
| Touchdowns | 38 |
| Points per game | 20.99 |
| Yards per carry | 3.85 |
| Snap share | 96% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 1.25 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 38.7% |
| Goal-line carry share | 47.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 8.75 |
The offense threw it 562 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| A.J. Brown | 30.1% |
| DeVonta Smith | 21.33% |
| Dallas Goedert | 15.81% |
| D'Andre Swift | 9.33% |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 7.05% |
| Quez Watkins | 4% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 16 | 0 | 22.26 | — | 0% |
| Marcus Mariota | 1 | 0 | 0.6 | — | 0% |
3 of his 17 games were blowouts, 9.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 11.13 in those and 23 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 15 against CHI — 34.7 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 25-20. His worst was Week 18 against NYG at 8.46, on 0 targets, final score 22-16. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 12 times and came in under 8 points 0 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 23.6; in the 8 decided by more, 26.6. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 21.2 points per game. He scored 25.2, 19.7% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | 38-35 | 24.72 | 0 | 17 | 90 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | MIN | 24-7 | 33.02 | 0 | 11 | 57 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | WAS | 24-8 | 27.6 | 0 | 9 | 20 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 4 | JAX | 29-21 | 15.96 | 0 | 16 | 38 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 5 | ARI | 20-17 | 27.66 | 0 | 15 | 61 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 6 | DAL | 26-17 | 16.9 | 0 | 9 | 27 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 8 | PIT | 35-13 | 28.4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 81% |
| 9 | HOU | 29-17 | 20.02 | 0 | 9 | 23 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 10 | WAS | 21-32 | 21.8 | 0 | 6 | 28 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 11 | IND | 17-16 | 24.2 | 0 | 16 | 86 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 12 | GB | 40-33 | 29.82 | 0 | 17 | 157 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 13 | TEN | 35-10 | 34.4 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 88% |
| 14 | NYG | 48-22 | 30.38 | 0 | 7 | 77 | 3 | 0% | 93% |
| 15 | CHI | 25-20 | 34.7 | 0 | 17 | 61 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 18 | NYG | 22-16 | 8.46 | 0 | 9 | 13 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| Carries | 165 |
| Rushing yards | 760 |
| Touchdowns | 35 |
| Points per game | 25.2 |
| Yards per carry | 4.61 |
| Snap share | 97.47% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 3.32 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 32% |
| Goal-line carry share | 46.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 12.38 |
The offense threw it 536 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| A.J. Brown | 28.71% |
| DeVonta Smith | 26.93% |
| Dallas Goedert | 13.66% |
| Quez Watkins | 10.1% |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 5.74% |
| Miles Sanders | 5.15% |
4 of his 15 games were blowouts, 33.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 31.55 in those and 23.65 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 11 against NO — 30.78 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 40-29. His worst was Week 12 against NYG at 6.86, on 0 targets, final score 7-13. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 9 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 17.7; in the 9 decided by more, 22.9. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 20.1 points per game. He scored 20.81, 2.2% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL | 32-6 | 28.76 | 0 | 7 | 62 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | SF | 11-17 | 21.8 | 0 | 10 | 82 | 1 | 4.2% | 100% |
| 3 | DAL | 21-41 | 20.54 | 0 | 9 | 35 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 4 | KC | 30-42 | 28.18 | 0 | 8 | 47 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 5 | CAR | 21-18 | 22.92 | 0 | 9 | 30 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 6 | TB | 22-28 | 25 | 0 | 10 | 44 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 7 | LV | 22-33 | 23.54 | 0 | 13 | 61 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 8 | DET | 44-6 | 11.22 | 0 | 7 | 71 | 0 | 0% | 78% |
| 9 | LAC | 24-27 | 16.68 | 0 | 10 | 62 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 10 | DEN | 30-13 | 18.62 | 0 | 13 | 55 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 11 | NO | 40-29 | 30.78 | 0 | 18 | 69 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 12 | NYG | 7-13 | 6.86 | 0 | 8 | 77 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 15 | WAS | 27-17 | 27.64 | 0 | 8 | 38 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 16 | NYG | 34-10 | 16.66 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 89% |
| 17 | WAS | 20-16 | 12.96 | 0 | 7 | 44 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| Targets | 1 |
| Carries | 139 |
| Rushing yards | 784 |
| Touchdowns | 26 |
| Points per game | 20.81 |
| Yards per target | 0 |
| Catch rate | 0% |
| Yards per carry | 5.64 |
| Snap share | 97.8% |
| Target share | 0.28% |
| Air-yards share | 0.06% |
| WOPR | 0.005 |
| Average depth of target | 3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 0 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 0 |
| Total YAC | 0 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 39.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.19 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 2.71 |
| Red-zone targets | 1 |
| Red-zone target share | 1.6% |
| End-zone target share | 3.8% |
| Red-zone carry share | 27.1% |
| Goal-line carry share | 29.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.47 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.47 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 6.58 |
The offense threw it 494 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| DeVonta Smith | 22.32% |
| Dallas Goedert | 16.31% |
| Quez Watkins | 13.3% |
| Jalen Reagor | 12.23% |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 10.73% |
| Miles Sanders | 7.3% |
5 of his 15 games were blowouts, 30.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 19.16 in those and 17.7 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 15 against ARI — 37.82 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 26-33. His worst was Week 10 against NYG at -0.1, on 0 targets, final score 17-27. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 8.9; in the 5 decided by more, 5.8. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 8.6 points per game. He scored 7.8, 8.8% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | CIN | 23-23 | 0.5 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 3% |
| 4 | SF | 25-20 | 1.8 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 0% | 6% |
| 5 | PIT | 29-38 | 0.72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 3% |
| 6 | BAL | 28-30 | 3.6 | 3 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 2.6% | 10% |
| 7 | NYG | 22-21 | 0.2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 6% |
| 8 | DAL | 23-9 | 0.36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 5% |
| 10 | NYG | 17-27 | -0.1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 0% | 4% |
| 11 | CLE | 17-22 | 0.6 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 1% |
| 12 | SEA | 17-23 | 0.24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 3% |
| 13 | GB | 16-30 | 9.26 | 0 | 5 | 29 | 1 | 0% | 42% |
| 14 | NO | 24-21 | 19.28 | 0 | 18 | 106 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 15 | ARI | 26-33 | 37.82 | 0 | 11 | 63 | 4 | 0% | 99% |
| 16 | DAL | 17-37 | 18.58 | 0 | 9 | 69 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 17 | WAS | 14-20 | 16.28 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 2 | 0% | 74% |
| Receptions | 1 |
| Targets | 1 |
| Receiving yards | 3 |
| Carries | 63 |
| Rushing yards | 354 |
| Touchdowns | 9 |
| Points per game | 7.8 |
| Yards per target | 3 |
| Catch rate | 100% |
| Yards per carry | 5.62 |
| Snap share | 32.57% |
| Target share | 0.19% |
| Air-yards share | -0.11% |
| WOPR | 0.002 |
| Average depth of target | -6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -6 |
| Total YAC | 9 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 79.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.01 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.06 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 9.8% |
| Goal-line carry share | 5.9% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.99 |
The offense threw it 598 times. 0 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Greg Ward | 14.11% |
| Zach Ertz | 12.86% |
| Travis Fulgham | 11.96% |
| Dallas Goedert | 11.61% |
| Jalen Reagor | 9.64% |
| Miles Sanders | 9.29% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 10 | 1 | 1.72 | 3 | 0.26% |
| Jalen Hurts | 4 | 0 | 22.99 | — | 0% |
1 of his 14 games were blowouts, 17% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 18.58 in those and 8.92 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
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