QB · PHI · GWTTKB

Jalen Hurts — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 18.82 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 60.9, usage worth 18.5.

28 years old · 6 seasons of experience · 2020 draft class

Updated 2026-08-16 · free, no account, no paywall
Every figure below comes from our database. Where a stat is not held, the row is absent rather than zero.
ADP 60.9
Consensus across 4 books, standard deviation 7.4, 16.8 picks between cheapest and priciest. Cheapest on underdog, priciest on espn.
SLEEPER62.9
ESPN53.6
YAHOO56.6
UNDERDOG72.3
CBS70.4
FFA65

Draft-room facts

Goes aroundRound 5, pick 13 in a 12-team draft
Positional rankQB6
Bye week10
ADP standard deviation7.4 picks

What we project for 2026

Our board has him at 349.7 points, 20.8 per game — 3,887 passing yards, 25.9 passing TDs, 496 rushing yards. That is QB2, 65 overall.

The range runs from a floor of 16.7 points per game to a ceiling of 27.8, with the median at 20.8. Boom rate 34%, bust rate 20%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.

He goes at 60.9 on consensus and our board has him 65. We rank him 4.1 picks worse than the room drafts him, so at ADP he is mildly overpriced. That is an objection to the price and not to the player — if he falls past his slot he can be exactly the right pick.

Our written view

Mid-6th for a QB who can run for 15+ TDs — strong value and far lower opportunity cost than early QB. Lower passing volume w/o AJ Brown, but the rushing floor carries it.

buy · medium conviction · 2026-06-05

The offense he plays in, 2026

Philadelphia Eagles returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1, oc. Jalen Hurts at quarterback, Nick Sirianni as head coach, Sean Mannion calling it. The offense projects to 31 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 27.4 rushes.

In: Makai Lemon (wr2), Marquise Brown (wr3), Dontayvion Wicks (wr4), Elijah Moore (wr6), Quez Watkins (wr7), Dameon Pierce (rb4), Eli Stowers (te2). Out: AJ Brown (wr1), Britain Covey (wr3), Johnny Wilson (wr4), Grant Calcaterra (te2).

The projected target split across the offense:

Devonta Smith17.8%
Dallas Goedert17.4%
Makai Lemon17.1%
Elijah Moore10%
Eli Stowers8.9%
Saquon Barkley6.6%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

What the offense looks like: If the Eagles can get their offense humming again, this is an offense you want to own a lot of players in. They can produce at a very high level for you. Hurts in particular regardless of play will be a top QB because of the tush push.

Key additions: Drafted WR Makai Lemon 1st round. Traded for Packers WR Dontayvion Wicks, Signed Hollywood Brown. Drafted TE Eli Stowers (great passing catching TE)

Key departures: AJ Brown. He is going to be traded to the Patriots in June 2026.

Notes: AJ Brown is going to be traded to the Patriots. He will not be on the team. Devonta Smith is primed to BREAKOUT as a WR1 IF he can maintain target share. Drafted Makai Lemon Round 1, Eli Stowers (great receiving TE who was also scouted as WR). Eagles also traded for Dontayvion Wicks from Packers who is a talented WR but hasn't put it all together yet. Signed Marquiese Brown in free agency who is expected to operate as WR3/4. There are a lot of mouths to feed on this offense and not all of them can be fantasy relevant. Saquon had a rough 2025 season but should be great in 2026 IF Jalen Hurts can improve his level of play. There are a lot of targets available with AJ Brown leaving.

How the volume number was reached: Same QB Jalen Hurts returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (29.2 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 31 att/g; New OC Sean Mannion — pass rate and tempo may shift.

How the quarterback projection was built

Base case 281.3 PPR points, with a bear case of 205.2 and a bull case of 458.5, and a comp mean of 309.9. The model puts 45% probability on him beating this and 55% on falling short. Drawn from 20 comparable quarterback seasons.

Comparable seasonWhat he actually scoredDistance
Cam Newton 2013279.90.4
Josh Allen 2019467.20.4
Cam Newton 2017282.60.4
Josh Freeman 2010205.50.4
Dak Prescott 2017328.80.5

Cross-check against the dynasty market: his production ranks in the 66th percentile and his value in the 72th, which the engine reads as in line. Players with a similar production-against-value gap saw dynasty value move -13.4% over the following year, across 81 cases — a dynasty signal, not a 2026 scoring one.

Offensive environment: PHI rates 23.5 against a league average of 23, 0.5 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season+7.6 · easier
Weeks 1–6+5.6 · easier
Weeks 12–17+4.2 · easier
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)-6.1 · harder

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

What happened when he missed time

From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.

SeasonGames missedMain beneficiaryTheir PPR gain
20222Gardner Minshew+17.4
20242Kenny Pickett+13.7
Read the full Jalen Hurts study →

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved -21.6% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.8 elite seasons and 3.1 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

PlayerSeasonTheir PPGSimilarityNext year
Josh Allen202423.764%+12.8%
Josh Allen202323.161%+16.3%
Daniel Jones202413.549%+104.1%
Lamar Jackson202320.748%+30.7%
Kyler Murray202318.348%+4%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 5 gained value, 0 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

02,0004,0006,0008,00010,000202120222023202420252026
Monthly superflex value, 2020-06 to 2026-07. Up 165% across the series, peaking at 9,799.

The player

Draft capital and athletic profile

Drafted2020, round 2, pick 53 by PHI
CollegeOklahoma
Age at draft22
Height6′1″
Weight222 lb
40-yard dash4.59s
Vertical35″
Broad jump125″

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game19.4
Week-to-week variation0.5
Boom rate9.5%
Bust rate16.2%
Games missed per season0.7
Injury historyright Shoulder, Concussion
Correlation between his posted line and his actual score-0.04

That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.

Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.

The record, season by season

2025 · PHI · 16 games

His best game was Week 12 against DAL — 30.86 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 21-24. His worst was Week 14 against LAC at 2.4, on 0 targets, final score 19-22. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 7 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 17.9; in the 5 decided by more, 20.9. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 18.5 points per game. He scored 18.82, 0.3% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1DAL24-2024.280146220%100%
2KC20-1711.54091510%100%
3LA33-2629.04094040%100%
4TB31-2519.4096220%100%
5DEN17-2119.502320%100%
6NYG17-3420.62071320%100%
7MIN28-2224.0404-1030%100%
8NYG38-2025.36042240%93%
10GB10-712.02052710%100%
11DET16-914.50103110%100%
12DAL21-2430.86073330%100%
13CHI15-2416.3043120%100%
14LAC19-222.404800%100%
15LV31-022.9073930%75%
16WAS29-1819.4074020%94%
17BUF13-128.903510%100%

Production

Carries105
Rushing yards421
Touchdowns33
Points per game18.82
Yards per carry4.01

Role

Snap share97.63%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game1.04

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share28.1%
Goal-line carry share35.3%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs5.68

Who else ate

The offense threw it 497 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

A.J. Brown26.08%
DeVonta Smith24.35%
Dallas Goedert17.67%
Saquon Barkley10.78%
Jahan Dotson7.76%
Grant Calcaterra2.8%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 16 games were blowouts, 22.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 22.96 in those and 17.86 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2024 · PHI · 15 games

His best game was Week 8 against CIN — 35.14 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 37-17. His worst was Week 16 against WAS at 4.54, on 0 targets, final score 33-36. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 8 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 18.7; in the 6 decided by more, 24.5. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 18.1 points per game. He scored 21.01, 19.5% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1GB34-2916.420133320%100%
2ATL21-2223.820138520%100%
3NO15-1210.94082500%100%
4TB16-3316.32082020%100%
6CLE20-1621.860143320%100%
7NYG28-322.76072230%82%
8CIN37-1735.140103740%100%
9JAX28-2329.90136730%100%
10DAL34-629.68075640%79%
11WAS26-1818.740103910%100%
12LA37-2015.060123910%97%
13BAL24-1917.62092920%100%
14CAR22-1624.22085930%100%
15PIT27-1328.10154530%100%
16WAS33-364.54034100%16%

Production

Carries150
Rushing yards630
Touchdowns32
Points per game21.01
Yards per carry4.2

Role

Snap share91.6%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game2.72

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share30.8%
Goal-line carry share42%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs10.67

Who else ate

The offense threw it 448 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

A.J. Brown23.26%
DeVonta Smith21.34%
Dallas Goedert12.47%
Saquon Barkley10.31%
Jahan Dotson7.91%
Grant Calcaterra7.19%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Jalen Hurts14022.180%
Kenny Pickett104.540%

Blowouts against close games

5 of his 15 games were blowouts, 37.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 23.79 in those and 18.67 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2023 · PHI · 17 games

His best game was Week 12 against BUF — 34.5 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 37-34. His worst was Week 18 against NYG at 0.6, on 0 targets, final score 10-27. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 10 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 23; in the 6 decided by more, 17.3. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 20 points per game. He scored 20.99, 3% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1NE25-2012.5093710%100%
2MIN34-2825.220123530%100%
3TB25-1119.880102820%100%
4WAS34-3124.16093420%100%
5LA23-1427.320157220%100%
6NYJ14-2019.9084720%100%
7MIA31-1723.260112130%100%
8WAS38-3127.3604640%100%
9DAL28-2325.880103630%100%
11KC21-1718.90122920%100%
12BUF37-3434.50146550%100%
13SF19-4223.92072020%93%
14DAL13-338.88053000%96%
15SEA17-2021.920138220%100%
16NYG33-2523.44083420%100%
17ARI31-3519.18082530%100%
18NYG10-270.602400%43%

Production

Carries157
Rushing yards605
Touchdowns38
Points per game20.99
Yards per carry3.85

Role

Snap share96%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game1.25

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share38.7%
Goal-line carry share47.1%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs8.75

Who else ate

The offense threw it 562 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

A.J. Brown30.1%
DeVonta Smith21.33%
Dallas Goedert15.81%
D'Andre Swift9.33%
Kenneth Gainwell7.05%
Quez Watkins4%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Jalen Hurts16022.260%
Marcus Mariota100.60%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 17 games were blowouts, 9.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 11.13 in those and 23 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2022 · PHI · 15 games

His best game was Week 15 against CHI — 34.7 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 25-20. His worst was Week 18 against NYG at 8.46, on 0 targets, final score 22-16. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 12 times and came in under 8 points 0 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 23.6; in the 8 decided by more, 26.6. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 21.2 points per game. He scored 25.2, 19.7% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1DET38-3524.720179010%100%
2MIN24-733.020115730%100%
3WAS24-827.6092030%100%
4JAX29-2115.960163810%100%
5ARI20-1727.660156120%100%
6DAL26-1716.9092720%100%
8PIT35-1328.4021040%81%
9HOU29-1720.02092320%100%
10WAS21-3221.8062830%100%
11IND17-1624.20168620%100%
12GB40-3329.8201715720%100%
13TEN35-1034.4051240%88%
14NYG48-2230.38077730%93%
15CHI25-2034.70176130%100%
18NYG22-168.46091300%100%

Production

Carries165
Rushing yards760
Touchdowns35
Points per game25.2
Yards per carry4.61

Role

Snap share97.47%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game3.32

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share32%
Goal-line carry share46.3%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs12.38

Who else ate

The offense threw it 536 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

A.J. Brown28.71%
DeVonta Smith26.93%
Dallas Goedert13.66%
Quez Watkins10.1%
Kenneth Gainwell5.74%
Miles Sanders5.15%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 15 games were blowouts, 33.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 31.55 in those and 23.65 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2021 · PHI · 15 games

His best game was Week 11 against NO — 30.78 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 40-29. His worst was Week 12 against NYG at 6.86, on 0 targets, final score 7-13. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 9 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 17.7; in the 9 decided by more, 22.9. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 20.1 points per game. He scored 20.81, 2.2% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1ATL32-628.76076230%100%
2SF11-1721.80108214.2%100%
3DAL21-4120.54093520%100%
4KC30-4228.18084720%100%
5CAR21-1822.92093020%100%
6TB22-28250104430%100%
7LV22-3323.540136120%100%
8DET44-611.22077100%78%
9LAC24-2716.680106210%100%
10DEN30-1318.620135520%100%
11NO40-2930.780186930%100%
12NYG7-136.86087700%100%
15WAS27-1727.64083830%100%
16NYG34-1016.6602720%89%
17WAS20-1612.96074400%100%

Production

Targets1
Carries139
Rushing yards784
Touchdowns26
Points per game20.81
Yards per target0
Catch rate0%
Yards per carry5.64

Role

Snap share97.8%
Target share0.28%
Air-yards share0.06%
WOPR0.005

Efficiency

Average depth of target3
Yards after catch per reception0
Yards before catch per reception0
Total YAC0
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted39.6
Receiving EPA per game-0.19
Rushing EPA per game2.71

Scoring position

Red-zone targets1
Red-zone target share1.6%
End-zone target share3.8%
Red-zone carry share27.1%
Goal-line carry share29.3%
Expected receiving TDs0.47
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck-0.47
Expected rushing TDs6.58

Who else ate

The offense threw it 494 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

DeVonta Smith22.32%
Dallas Goedert16.31%
Quez Watkins13.3%
Jalen Reagor12.23%
Kenneth Gainwell10.73%
Miles Sanders7.3%

Blowouts against close games

5 of his 15 games were blowouts, 30.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 19.16 in those and 17.7 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2020 · PHI · 14 games

His best game was Week 15 against ARI — 37.82 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 26-33. His worst was Week 10 against NYG at -0.1, on 0 targets, final score 17-27. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 8.9; in the 5 decided by more, 5.8. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 8.6 points per game. He scored 7.8, 8.8% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
3CIN23-230.502500%3%
4SF25-201.8031800%6%
5PIT29-380.7200000%3%
6BAL28-303.6322302.6%10%
7NYG22-210.202200%6%
8DAL23-90.3600000%5%
10NYG17-27-0.102-100%4%
11CLE17-220.601600%1%
12SEA17-230.2400000%3%
13GB16-309.26052910%42%
14NO24-2119.2801810610%100%
15ARI26-3337.820116340%99%
16DAL17-3718.58096910%100%
17WAS14-2016.28083420%74%

Production

Receptions1
Targets1
Receiving yards3
Carries63
Rushing yards354
Touchdowns9
Points per game7.8
Yards per target3
Catch rate100%
Yards per carry5.62

Role

Snap share32.57%
Target share0.19%
Air-yards share-0.11%
WOPR0.002

Efficiency

Average depth of target-6
Yards after catch per reception9
Yards before catch per reception-6
Total YAC9
Broken tackles1
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted79.2
Receiving EPA per game-0.01
Rushing EPA per game0.06

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share9.8%
Goal-line carry share5.9%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs0.99

Who else ate

The offense threw it 598 times. 0 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Greg Ward14.11%
Zach Ertz12.86%
Travis Fulgham11.96%
Dallas Goedert11.61%
Jalen Reagor9.64%
Miles Sanders9.29%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Carson Wentz1011.7230.26%
Jalen Hurts4022.990%

Blowouts against close games

1 of his 14 games were blowouts, 17% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 18.58 in those and 8.92 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

Ask the Coach about Jalen Hurts →
All player profiles · 2026 rankings · Research findings · Methodology
GWTTKB publishes research and education. Nothing here is betting advice.