Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 15.68 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 143.9, usage worth 16.6.
27 years old · 6 seasons of experience · 2020 draft class
| SLEEPER | 145.2 |
| ESPN | 159.4 |
| YAHOO | 124.6 |
| UNDERDOG | 115.7 |
| CBS | 146.3 |
| FFA | 133 |
| Goes around | Round 12, pick 12 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | QB19 |
| Bye week | 11 |
| ADP standard deviation | 14.4 picks |
Our board has him at 298.2 points, 17.8 per game — 4,206 passing yards, 28 passing TDs, 184 rushing yards. That is QB4, 132 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 14.3 points per game to a ceiling of 24.3, with the median at 17.8. Boom rate 36%, bust rate 20%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 143.9 on consensus and our board has him 132. We rank him 11.9 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
despite being a genuinely athletic QB, has a career rushing average of only about 10 yards/game and a single rushing TD total over the past two seasons combined — a real, sustained pattern of NOT using his legs even when the offense's context would seem to call for it, which specifically undercuts the "he'll just start running more" breakout argument.
hold · medium conviction · 2026-08Green Bay Packers returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1. Jordan Love at quarterback, Matt LaFleur as head coach, Adam Stenavich calling it. The offense projects to 30.2 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 28.2 rushes.
In: Skyy Moore (wr6), Will Sheppard (wr7), MarShawn Lloyd (rb3), Pierre Strong Jr. (rb4). Out: Romeo Doubs (wr1), Emmanuel Wilson (rb2).
The projected target split across the offense:
| Christian Watson | 17.4% |
| Jayden Reed | 17% |
| Matthew Golden | 13.9% |
| Tucker Kraft | 13.1% |
| Josh Jacobs | 9.7% |
| Luke Musgrave | 8.3% |
Key additions: Drafted Jager Burton C in the 5th round, extended Jayden Reed on 3 year deal.
Key departures: Rasheed Walker starting O lineman left to Panthers. RB Emmanuel Wilson left, opening up backup and 3rd down back role for another RB to fill the gap. Romeo Doubs to New England Patriots, Wicks to Eagles. Massive opportunity for Watson, Golden, and Reed. We will have to see who plays the most on 2 WR sets.
Notes: Key departures: Romeo Doubs to New England Patriots, Wicks to Eagles. Massive opportunity for Watson, Golden, and Reed. We will have to see who plays the most on 2 WR sets. Reed landed 3 year 50m extension with packers. Golden could be primed for a breakout. Kraft should be recovered from torn ACL early in the season & Musgrave will fill in if he misses time but no true upside to him. Savion Williams will compete for WR4 but it is unlikely he holds any true value. Jordan Love needs to stay healthy but could be primed for a great 2026 season. Josh Jacobs is showing signs for concern with efficiency & managers need to think about him, however, packers have not brought in any competition so in the meantime he should be ok. The departure of Emmanuel Wilson to Seattle should not be underlooked. He was a highly productive back up RB & could open the door for a healthy Josh Jacobs to return to his peak form briefly. AND another RB will assume a very potentially productive handcuff opportunity.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Jordan Love returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (28.8 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 30.2 att/g.
Base case 260.3 PPR points, with a bear case of 166.9 and a bull case of 345.3, and a comp mean of 251.8. The model puts 40% probability on him beating this and 60% on falling short. Drawn from 20 comparable quarterback seasons.
| Comparable season | What he actually scored | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert 2024 | 296.9 | 0.3 |
| Kirk Cousins 2019 | 306.2 | 0.3 |
| Jordan Love 2024 | 265.2 | 0.4 |
| Jared Goff 2017 | 343 | 0.4 |
| Mitchell Trubisky 2018 | 202.8 | 0.4 |
Cross-check against the dynasty market: his production ranks in the 52th percentile and his value in the 55th, which the engine reads as in line. Players with a similar production-against-value gap saw dynasty value move -13.4% over the following year, across 81 cases — a dynasty signal, not a 2026 scoring one.
Offensive environment: GB rates 24.6 against a league average of 23, 1.6 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -1.7 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | +5 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -4.9 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +1.1 · neutral |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full Jordan Love study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -8% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.8 elite seasons and 3.1 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 2024 | 18.1 | 70% | +33.2% |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 2024 | 16.5 | 68% | -27.8% |
| Trevor Lawrence | 2024 | 14.5 | 67% | +31.6% |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 2023 | 15.9 | 66% | -5% |
| Sam Darnold | 2022 | 14.4 | 66% | -17.9% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2020, round 1, pick 26 by GNB |
| College | Utah St. |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| Height | 6′4″ |
| Weight | 224 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.74s |
| Vertical | 35.5″ |
| Broad jump | 118″ |
| 3-cone | 7.21s |
| Shuttle | 4.52s |
| Career PPR per game | 14.8 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.5 |
| Boom rate | 11.9% |
| Bust rate | 23.8% |
| Games missed per season | 0.2 |
| Injury history | Shoulder |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.15 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 8 against PIT — 28.3 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 35-25. His worst was Week 16 against CHI at 3.78, on 0 targets, final score 16-22. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 14.8; in the 5 decided by more, 17.4. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 16.6 points per game. He scored 15.68, 0.1% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | 27-13 | 15.92 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | WAS | 27-18 | 20.88 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | CLE | 10-13 | 11.12 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 4 | DAL | 40-40 | 26.28 | 0 | 3 | 28 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 6 | CIN | 27-18 | 14.96 | 0 | 7 | 26 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 7 | ARI | 27-23 | 13.36 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 8 | PIT | 35-25 | 28.3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 9 | CAR | 13-16 | 9.02 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 10 | PHI | 7-10 | 7.84 | 0 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 11 | NYG | 27-20 | 17.66 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 87% |
| 12 | MIN | 23-6 | 7.06 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 0% | 91% |
| 13 | DET | 31-24 | 25.76 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0% | 100% |
| 14 | CHI | 28-21 | 19.26 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 15 | DEN | 26-34 | 13.94 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 16 | CHI | 16-22 | 3.78 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0% | 36% |
| Carries | 47 |
| Rushing yards | 199 |
| Touchdowns | 23 |
| Points per game | 15.68 |
| Yards per carry | 4.23 |
| Snap share | 94.27% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.82 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 5.1% |
| Goal-line carry share | 3.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.67 |
The offense threw it 489 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Romeo Doubs | 18.48% |
| Christian Watson | 11.96% |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 10% |
| Josh Jacobs | 9.57% |
| Tucker Kraft | 9.57% |
| Matthew Golden | 9.57% |
1 of his 15 games were blowouts, 3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.06 in those and 14.8 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 4 against MIN — 28.16 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 29-31. His worst was Week 18 against CHI at 2.76, on 0 targets, final score 22-24. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 15; in the 6 decided by more, 16.5. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 14.1 points per game. He scored 15.59, 4.9% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | 29-34 | 16.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 97% |
| 4 | MIN | 29-31 | 28.16 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 0% | 100% |
| 5 | LA | 24-19 | 15.96 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 6 | ARI | 34-13 | 25.62 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 100% |
| 7 | HOU | 24-22 | 16.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 8 | JAX | 30-27 | 5.74 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0% | 63% |
| 9 | DET | 14-24 | 10.92 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 11 | CHI | 20-19 | 20.24 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 12 | SF | 38-10 | 14.72 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0% | 94% |
| 13 | MIA | 30-17 | 18.96 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 14 | DET | 31-34 | 14.54 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 15 | SEA | 30-13 | 17.56 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 16 | NO | 34-0 | 11.48 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 87% |
| 17 | MIN | 25-27 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 18 | CHI | 22-24 | 2.76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 35% |
| Carries | 25 |
| Rushing yards | 83 |
| Touchdowns | 26 |
| Points per game | 15.59 |
| Yards per carry | 3.32 |
| Snap share | 91.73% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.41 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 7.1% |
| Goal-line carry share | 6.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 1.24 |
The offense threw it 479 times. 4 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Dontayvion Wicks | 16.41% |
| Jayden Reed | 16.2% |
| Romeo Doubs | 15.55% |
| Tucker Kraft | 15.12% |
| Christian Watson | 11.45% |
| Josh Jacobs | 9.29% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 14 | 0 | 16.51 | — | 0% |
| Malik Willis | 1 | 0 | 2.76 | — | 0% |
4 of his 15 games were blowouts, 29.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 17.35 in those and 14.96 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 17 against MIN — 28.44 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 33-10. His worst was Week 5 against LV at 4.98, on 0 targets, final score 13-17. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 8 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 18.6; in the 6 decided by more, 19.2. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 16.4 points per game. He scored 18.77, 14.2% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | 38-20 | 23 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 92% |
| 2 | ATL | 24-25 | 20.34 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | NO | 18-17 | 24.26 | 0 | 9 | 39 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 4 | DET | 20-34 | 17.64 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 5 | LV | 13-17 | 4.98 | 0 | 2 | 37 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 7 | DEN | 17-19 | 15.3 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 8 | MIN | 10-24 | 14.56 | 0 | 4 | 34 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 9 | LA | 20-3 | 13.82 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 10 | PIT | 19-23 | 16.66 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 11 | LAC | 23-20 | 20.88 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 12 | DET | 29-22 | 26.62 | 0 | 3 | 39 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 13 | KC | 27-19 | 23.68 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 14 | NYG | 22-24 | 8.92 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 15 | TB | 20-34 | 17.46 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 16 | CAR | 33-30 | 23.96 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 17 | MIN | 33-10 | 28.44 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0% | 89% |
| 18 | CHI | 17-9 | 18.54 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| Carries | 50 |
| Rushing yards | 247 |
| Touchdowns | 36 |
| Points per game | 18.77 |
| Yards per carry | 4.94 |
| Snap share | 98.88% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.43 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 7.5% |
| Goal-line carry share | 12% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 1.67 |
The offense threw it 581 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Romeo Doubs | 17.11% |
| Jayden Reed | 16.76% |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 10.34% |
| Christian Watson | 9.45% |
| Luke Musgrave | 8.2% |
| Aaron Jones | 7.66% |
3 of his 17 games were blowouts, 20.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 21.75 in those and 18.56 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 12 against PHI — 8.52 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 33-40. His worst was Week 17 against MIN at 0.26, on 0 targets, final score 41-17. Across 4 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 3 times.
His usage that season was worth 2.5 points per game. He scored 2.92, 19.4% above it. The engine classified the season as low_volume.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 7-23 | 2.6 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 8% |
| 6 | NYJ | 10-27 | 0.32 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 5% |
| 12 | PHI | 33-40 | 8.52 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 20% |
| 17 | MIN | 41-17 | 0.26 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 11% |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | -1 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 2.92 |
| Yards per carry | -1 |
| Snap share | 11% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0 |
The offense threw it 563 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Allen Lazard | 18.55% |
| Aaron Jones | 13.36% |
| Robert Tonyan | 12.43% |
| Romeo Doubs | 12.43% |
| Christian Watson | 12.24% |
| Randall Cobb | 9.28% |
2 of his 4 games were blowouts, 5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 0.29 in those and 8.52 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 9 against KC — 11.9 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 7-13. His worst was Week 2 against DET at -0.3, on 0 targets, final score 35-17. Across 6 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 3 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6.4; in the 3 decided by more, 0.7. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 6.1 points per game. He scored 3.52, 42.2% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | 3-38 | 0.72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 26% |
| 2 | DET | 35-17 | -0.3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 0% | 5% |
| 9 | KC | 7-13 | 11.9 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 11 | MIN | 31-34 | -0.1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0% | 2% |
| 17 | MIN | 37-10 | 1.66 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 16% |
| 18 | DET | 30-37 | 7.26 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 0% | 54% |
| Carries | 12 |
| Rushing yards | 27 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 3.52 |
| Yards per carry | 2.25 |
| Snap share | 33.83% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.28 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0 |
The offense threw it 593 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Davante Adams | 29.7% |
| Aaron Jones | 11.42% |
| Allen Lazard | 10.54% |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 9.67% |
| Randall Cobb | 6.85% |
| A.J. Dillon | 6.5% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 5 | 0 | 1.85 | — | 0% |
| Jordan Love | 1 | 0 | 11.9 | — | 0% |
3 of his 6 games were blowouts, 9.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 0.69 in those and 6.35 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about Jordan Love →