Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 16.33 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 56.6, usage worth 18.9.
25 years old · 2 seasons of experience · 2024 draft class
| SLEEPER | 61.3 |
| ESPN | 51 |
| YAHOO | 53.6 |
| UNDERDOG | 68.6 |
| CBS | 60.5 |
| FFA | 60 |
| Goes around | Round 5, pick 9 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | QB5 |
| Bye week | 7 |
| ADP standard deviation | 5.1 picks |
Our board has him at 355.2 points, 21.1 per game — 3,803 passing yards, 25 passing TDs, 772 rushing yards. That is QB2, 60 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 16.9 points per game to a ceiling of 28.2, with the median at 21.1. Boom rate 34%, bust rate 20%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 56.6 on consensus and our board has him 60. We rank him 3.4 picks worse than the room drafts him, so at ADP he is mildly overpriced. That is an objection to the price and not to the player — if he falls past his slot he can be exactly the right pick.
The standout QB value — composite ~60 for a player who simulates like a 3rd/4th-round QB. Take him over paying round 2/3 for Allen.
buy · high conviction · 2026-06-05Washington Commanders returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing te1, oc. Jayden Daniels at quarterback, Dan Quinn as head coach, David Blough calling it. The offense projects to 30.1 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 27.7 rushes.
In: Antonio Williams (wr2), Brandon Aiyuk (wr3), Dyami Brown (wr5), Rachaad White (rb2), Kaytron Allen (rb4), Chig Okonkwo (te1). Out: Deebo Samuel (wr2), Austin Ekeler (rb2), Chris Rodriguez Jr (rb3), Zach Ertz (te1).
The projected target split across the offense:
| Brandon Aiyuk | 21.8% |
| Terry McLaurin | 18.6% |
| Chig Okonkwo | 10.2% |
| Antonio Williams | 9% |
| Jaylin Lane | 7.7% |
| Rachaad White | 6.2% |
What the offense looks like: Terry McLaurin has been struggling with injuries & is aging. The Commanders have young WR talent that can step up, but they are going to need it quickly. Chig Okonkwo could provide immediate help to Jayden Daniels. But Jayden has to play at a high level. I believe Jayden can be a top 5 QB in the NFL & he has not historically struggled with injuries throughout his career. There is a risk in this offense if Jayden gets hurt again, but when healthy, this is an offense that the top RB will be highly relevant, should have a productive TE, and can support fantasy relevance out of multiple WR.
Key additions: Signed RB Rachaad White from Tampa in free agency (Jayden Daniels college teammate). Signed WR Ryami Brown in free agency from Jacksonville. Signed TE Chig Okonkwo from Tennessee in free agency to 3 year deal (starter). Drafted RB Kaytron Allen in the 6th roud. Expected to sign WR Brandon Aiyuk in free agency.
Key departures: OC Kluff Kingsbury is gone afer disaster 2025 season (promoted David Blough to OC). Lost WR Deebo Samuel in free agency. Lost TE Zach Ertz due to ACL injury because Marcus Mariota got his knee exploded on a hospital ball across the middle of the field.
Notes: Williams round 3 WR could connect early with Daniels. Terry McLaurin is aging, but if he can stay healthy, he will produce over next few years. Signed TE Chig Okonkwo who could 100% produce well with Jayden Daniels but hadn't provded it with Titans yet. Jacory Croskey-Merritt is set to be 1A RB while they sign Bucs RB Rachaad White in free agency. Could function as 1B and recieving back. Very curious to see how this dynamic turns out. Brandon Aiyuk WILL SIGN with Commanders or be traded to them. Unsure if he will be good following knee surgery, but he will be in Washington next Season. Daniels top 5 SF dynasty QB. Buy him. Rookie WR Williams, WR Dyami Brown, & Treylon Burks all have a chance to operate as WR2 or 3. Only 1 can win the full time job though.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Jayden Daniels returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (27.6 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 30.1 att/g; New OC David Blough — pass rate and tempo may shift.
Base case 308.5 PPR points, with a bear case of 135.6 and a bull case of 440.2, and a comp mean of 295.5. The model puts 25% probability on him beating this and 75% on falling short. Drawn from 20 comparable quarterback seasons.
| Comparable season | What he actually scored | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels 2024 | 114.3 | 0 |
| Josh Allen 2024 | 416.8 | 0.4 |
| Jalen Hurts 2023 | 411.6 | 0.4 |
| Josh Allen 2023 | 438.3 | 0.5 |
| Lamar Jackson 2023 | 471.5 | 0.5 |
Cross-check against the dynasty market: his production ranks in the 90th percentile and his value in the 90th, which the engine reads as in line. Players with a similar production-against-value gap saw dynasty value move -13.4% over the following year, across 81 cases — a dynasty signal, not a 2026 scoring one.
Offensive environment: WAS rates 23 against a league average of 23, exactly at it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -0.2 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | +3.6 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -3 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -7.5 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 10 | Marcus Mariota | +14.6 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -23.3% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.8 elite seasons and 3.1 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 2020 | 12.9 | 55% | -9.7% |
| Kyler Murray | 2022 | 18.2 | 55% | +27.4% |
| Deshaun Watson | 2022 | 14.3 | 54% | -9.1% |
| Drake Maye | 2024 | 13.6 | 53% | +57% |
| Caleb Williams | 2024 | 15 | 52% | +24.1% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 3 gained value, 2 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2024, round 1, pick 2 by WAS |
| College | LSU |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| Height | 6′4″ |
| Weight | 210 lb |
His best game was Week 6 against CHI — 21.64 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 24-25. His worst was Week 14 against MIN at 2.72, on 0 targets, final score 0-31. Across 7 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 1 time.
His usage that season was worth 18.9 points per game. He scored 16.33, 13.8% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYG | 21-6 | 20.12 | 0 | 11 | 68 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | GB | 18-27 | 19.7 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 5 | LAC | 27-10 | 17.14 | 0 | 8 | 39 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 6 | CHI | 24-25 | 21.64 | 0 | 10 | 52 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 7 | DAL | 22-44 | 17.74 | 0 | 8 | 35 | 2 | 0% | 69% |
| 9 | SEA | 14-38 | 15.22 | 0 | 10 | 51 | 1 | 0% | 88% |
| 14 | MIN | 0-31 | 2.72 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 0% | 75% |
| Carries | 58 |
| Rushing yards | 278 |
| Touchdowns | 10 |
| Points per game | 16.33 |
| Yards per carry | 4.79 |
| Snap share | 90.29% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.25 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 6.6% |
| Goal-line carry share | 5.9% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.97 |
The offense threw it 469 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Deebo Samuel | 22.92% |
| Zach Ertz | 16.67% |
| Terry McLaurin | 13.89% |
| Jaylin Lane | 7.41% |
| Jeremy McNichols | 7.18% |
| Chris Moore | 5.32% |
4 of his 7 games were blowouts, 46.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 13.2 in those and 21.64 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 16 against PHI — 34.42 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 36-33. His worst was Week 18 against DAL at 4.22, on 0 targets, final score 23-19. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 10 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 12 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 20.9; in the 5 decided by more, 21. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 20.4 points per game. He scored 20.93, 5.1% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | 20-37 | 28.16 | 0 | 16 | 88 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | NYG | 21-18 | 13.44 | 0 | 10 | 44 | 0 | 0% | 99% |
| 3 | CIN | 38-33 | 28.06 | 0 | 12 | 39 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 4 | ARI | 42-14 | 24.02 | 0 | 8 | 47 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 5 | CLE | 34-13 | 19.72 | 0 | 11 | 82 | 1 | 0% | 87% |
| 6 | BAL | 23-30 | 20.96 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 7 | CAR | 40-7 | 5.24 | 0 | 3 | 50 | 0 | 0% | 14% |
| 8 | CHI | 18-15 | 22.24 | 0 | 8 | 52 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 9 | NYG | 27-22 | 19.86 | 0 | 8 | 35 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 10 | PIT | 27-28 | 8.58 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 11 | PHI | 18-26 | 13.44 | 0 | 7 | 18 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 12 | DAL | 26-34 | 30.4 | 0 | 7 | 74 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 13 | TEN | 42-19 | 27.64 | 0 | 9 | 34 | 4 | 0% | 100% |
| 15 | NO | 20-19 | 23.64 | 0 | 11 | 66 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 16 | PHI | 36-33 | 34.42 | 0 | 9 | 81 | 5 | 0% | 100% |
| 17 | ATL | 30-24 | 31.78 | 0 | 16 | 127 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 18 | DAL | 23-19 | 4.22 | 0 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 0% | 45% |
| Carries | 148 |
| Rushing yards | 891 |
| Touchdowns | 31 |
| Points per game | 20.93 |
| Yards per carry | 6.02 |
| Snap share | 90.88% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 3.44 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 30.8% |
| Goal-line carry share | 23.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 5.96 |
The offense threw it 525 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Terry McLaurin | 23.26% |
| Zach Ertz | 18.09% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 12.72% |
| Noah Brown | 11.13% |
| Austin Ekeler | 8.15% |
| Dyami Brown | 7.95% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 15 | 0 | 23.09 | — | 0% |
| Marcus Mariota | 2 | 0 | 4.73 | — | 0% |
5 of his 17 games were blowouts, 29.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 20.96 in those and 20.92 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
Ask the Coach about Jayden Daniels →