Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 22.79 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 21.9, usage worth 19.7.
30 years old · 8 seasons of experience · 2018 draft class
| SLEEPER | 24.2 |
| ESPN | 22.6 |
| YAHOO | 19.5 |
| UNDERDOG | 36.5 |
| CBS | 21.1 |
| FFA | 26 |
| Goes around | Round 2, pick 10 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | QB1 |
| Bye week | 7 |
| ADP standard deviation | 2 picks |
Our board has him at 388.6 points, 23.1 per game — 3,953 passing yards, 29.9 passing TDs, 538 rushing yards. That is QB1, 26 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 18.5 points per game to a ceiling of 31, with the median at 23.1. Boom rate 34%, bust rate 20%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 21.9 on consensus and our board has him 26. We rank him 4.1 picks worse than the room drafts him, so at ADP he is mildly overpriced. That is an objection to the price and not to the player — if he falls past his slot he can be exactly the right pick.
Great player, but round-3 opportunity cost is high when rounds 5-7 QBs offer similar value. Fine if you want to lock the position; otherwise wait.
neutral · medium conviction · 2026-06-05Buffalo Bills returns 3 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1, hc, oc. Josh Allen at quarterback, Joe Brady as head coach, Pete Carmichael Jr. calling it. The offense projects to 31.5 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 29.2 rushes.
In: Kyle Allen (qb2), DJ Moore (wr1), Skyler Bell (wr4), Trent Sherfield (wr7). Out: Curtis Samuel (wr4).
The projected target split across the offense:
| DJ Moore | 17.1% |
| Khalil Shakir | 16.8% |
| Dalton Kincaid | 14.4% |
| Keon Coleman | 11.7% |
| James Cook | 9.4% |
| Dawson Knox | 7.4% |
What the offense looks like: This is a high powered offense centered around Josh Allen & James Cook. Over the past few years, the Bills have struggled to surround Allen with the weapons he needs in the passsing game. Kincaid HAS NOT made the leap or returned his 1st round draft capital despite what people say. The move to get DJ Moore was very intentional & GM Brandon Beane believes Moore is a locked in WR1 for Buffalo. Shakir is going to be a strong contributor but the DJ Moore trade likely hurts his value.
Key additions: Bills traded a 2nd round pick for to Bears for WR DJ Moore & extended on 4 year deal. C Lloyd Cushenberry 1 year deal. G/C Austin Corbett from Panthers (starter). WR Trent Sherfield from Minnesota (depth).
Key departures: David Edwards (starting LG), WR Curtis Samuel was released. Back up QB Mitch Trubisky signed with the Titans.
Notes: The Bills fired Sean McDermott following their loss to Denver in the playoffs in 2025. Joe Brady (standout OC) was promoted to HCThe Keon Coleman breakout may not ever happen. Bills traded for DJ Moore from Bears & under contract for 4 years. Large opportunity to emerge as main pass catcher in offense. Shakir reliable but no true ceiling yet. Allen 30 but still elite. Bills draft Skyler Bell WR from UConn 6 foor 192 LB 4.40 second 40 yard dash. Large opportunity for Bell in long run. Kincaid health remains a question. Opted to not get PCL surgery AGAIN & new HC Joe Brady says they will manage pain throughout 2026. James Cook will continue to produce as a top 10 PPR fantasy back IF he stays healthy. Very underrated runner.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Josh Allen returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (29.1 att/g); Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 31.5 att/g; New OC Pete Carmichael Jr. — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Joe Brady.
Base case 318 PPR points, with a bear case of 135.6 and a bull case of 433, and a comp mean of 302.8. The model puts 15% probability on him beating this and 85% on falling short. Drawn from 20 comparable quarterback seasons.
| Comparable season | What he actually scored | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen 2024 | 416.8 | 0.3 |
| Cam Newton 2015 | 254.3 | 0.4 |
| Russell Wilson 2015 | 304.6 | 0.5 |
| Jalen Hurts 2022 | 371.3 | 0.5 |
| Russell Wilson 2014 | 371.9 | 0.5 |
Cross-check against the dynasty market: his production ranks in the 97th percentile and his value in the 100th, which the engine reads as in line. Players with a similar production-against-value gap saw dynasty value move -13.4% over the following year, across 81 cases — a dynasty signal, not a 2026 scoring one.
Offensive environment: BUF rates 26.9 against a league average of 23, 3.9 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -2.3 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | -4.4 · harder |
| Weeks 12–17 | -1.6 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +3.2 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full Josh Allen study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved 0% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.8 elite seasons and 3.1 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 2024 | 25.3 | 53% | -11.8% |
| Jalen Hurts | 2024 | 21 | 47% | -8.3% |
| Lamar Jackson | 2023 | 20.7 | 45% | +30.7% |
| Kyler Murray | 2023 | 18.3 | 39% | +4% |
| Kyler Murray | 2024 | 17.5 | 38% | -24.4% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2018, round 1, pick 7 by BUF |
| College | Wyoming |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 6′5″ |
| Weight | 237 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.75s |
| Vertical | 33.5″ |
| Broad jump | 119″ |
| 3-cone | 6.9s |
| Shuttle | 4.4s |
| Career PPR per game | 23.5 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.4 |
| Boom rate | 11.3% |
| Bust rate | 6.3% |
| Games missed per season | 0 |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | -0.12 |
His best game was Week 11 against TB — 42.68 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 44-32. His worst was Week 16 against CLE at 6.9, on 0 targets, final score 23-20. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 9 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 23.4; in the 8 decided by more, 22.1. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 19.7 points per game. He scored 22.79, 17.7% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 41-40 | 38.76 | 0 | 14 | 30 | 4 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | NYJ | 30-10 | 11.82 | 0 | 6 | 59 | 0 | 0% | 87% |
| 3 | MIA | 31-21 | 23.02 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 4 | NO | 31-19 | 24.86 | 0 | 7 | 45 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 5 | NE | 20-23 | 19.42 | 0 | 9 | 53 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 6 | ATL | 14-24 | 15.4 | 0 | 6 | 42 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 8 | CAR | 40-9 | 23.22 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 0% | 83% |
| 9 | KC | 28-21 | 28.82 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 10 | MIA | 13-30 | 19.34 | 0 | 4 | 31 | 2 | 0% | 96% |
| 11 | TB | 44-32 | 42.68 | 0 | 6 | 40 | 6 | 0% | 100% |
| 12 | HOU | 19-23 | 8.12 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 13 | PIT | 26-7 | 16.72 | 0 | 8 | 38 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 14 | CIN | 39-34 | 37.84 | 0 | 9 | 78 | 4 | 0% | 100% |
| 15 | NE | 35-31 | 24.52 | 0 | 11 | 48 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 16 | CLE | 23-20 | 6.9 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 17 | PHI | 12-13 | 23.18 | 0 | 7 | 27 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| Carries | 112 |
| Rushing yards | 579 |
| Touchdowns | 39 |
| Points per game | 22.79 |
| Yards per carry | 5.17 |
| Snap share | 97.88% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 2.42 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 27.2% |
| Goal-line carry share | 41.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 8.97 |
The offense threw it 495 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Khalil Shakir | 19.83% |
| Keon Coleman | 12.32% |
| Dawson Knox | 10.23% |
| Dalton Kincaid | 10.23% |
| James Cook | 8.35% |
| Josh Palmer | 7.72% |
4 of his 16 games were blowouts, 19.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 17.77 in those and 23.45 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 14 against LA — 51.88 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 42-44. His worst was Week 4 against BAL at 7.3, on 0 targets, final score 10-35. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 10 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 28.1; in the 9 decided by more, 20.3. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 18.6 points per game. He scored 23.69, 23.7% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI | 34-28 | 31.18 | 0 | 9 | 39 | 4 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | MIA | 31-10 | 9.76 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 91% |
| 3 | JAX | 47-10 | 30.92 | 0 | 6 | 44 | 4 | 0% | 88% |
| 4 | BAL | 10-35 | 7.3 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 0 | 0% | 86% |
| 5 | HOU | 20-23 | 14.64 | 0 | 4 | 54 | 1 | 0% | 98% |
| 6 | NYJ | 23-20 | 24.4 | 0 | 9 | 18 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 7 | TEN | 34-10 | 21.02 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 8 | SEA | 31-10 | 19.82 | 0 | 7 | 25 | 2 | 0% | 91% |
| 9 | MIA | 30-27 | 22.1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 10 | IND | 30-20 | 18.2 | 0 | 8 | 50 | 1 | 0% | 99% |
| 11 | KC | 30-21 | 23.98 | 0 | 12 | 55 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 13 | SF | 35-10 | 28.42 | 7 | 3 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 74% |
| 14 | LA | 42-44 | 51.88 | 0 | 10 | 82 | 6 | 0% | 100% |
| 15 | DET | 48-42 | 41.28 | 0 | 11 | 68 | 4 | 0% | 100% |
| 16 | NE | 24-21 | 11.16 | 0 | 6 | 30 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 17 | NYJ | 40-14 | 22.98 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 86% |
| Receiving yards | 7 |
| Carries | 102 |
| Rushing yards | 531 |
| Touchdowns | 41 |
| Points per game | 23.69 |
| Yards per carry | 5.21 |
| Snap share | 94.56% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Average depth of target | 0 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 0 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 0 |
| Total YAC | 7 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Passer rating when targeted | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 3.56 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 29.5% |
| Goal-line carry share | 36.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 8.25 |
The offense threw it 520 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Khalil Shakir | 20.2% |
| Dalton Kincaid | 15.15% |
| Keon Coleman | 11.52% |
| Mack Hollins | 10.1% |
| Curtis Samuel | 9.29% |
| James Cook | 7.68% |
7 of his 16 games were blowouts, 37% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 20.03 in those and 28.09 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 12 against PHI — 39.66 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 34-37. His worst was Week 1 against NYJ at 9.04, on 0 targets, final score 16-22. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 13 times and came in under 8 points 0 times. In the 12 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 22.7; in the 5 decided by more, 24. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 19.6 points per game. He scored 23.1, 23.1% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYJ | 16-22 | 9.04 | 0 | 6 | 36 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | LV | 38-10 | 23.66 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 0% | 95% |
| 3 | WAS | 37-3 | 21.32 | 0 | 3 | 46 | 2 | 0% | 84% |
| 4 | MIA | 48-20 | 36.5 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 86% |
| 5 | JAX | 20-25 | 27.76 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 6 | NYG | 14-9 | 13.86 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 97% |
| 7 | NE | 25-29 | 24.3 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 8 | TB | 24-18 | 29.06 | 0 | 7 | 41 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 9 | CIN | 18-24 | 24.72 | 0 | 8 | 44 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 10 | DEN | 22-24 | 14.38 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 11 | NYJ | 32-6 | 22.5 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 95% |
| 12 | PHI | 34-37 | 39.66 | 0 | 9 | 81 | 4 | 0% | 100% |
| 14 | KC | 20-17 | 20.52 | 0 | 10 | 32 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 15 | DAL | 31-10 | 16.16 | 0 | 8 | 24 | 2 | 0% | 90% |
| 16 | LAC | 24-22 | 24.98 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 17 | NE | 27-21 | 21.16 | 0 | 11 | 44 | 2 | 0% | 97% |
| 18 | MIA | 21-14 | 23.06 | 0 | 15 | 67 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| Carries | 111 |
| Rushing yards | 524 |
| Touchdowns | 44 |
| Points per game | 23.1 |
| Yards per carry | 4.72 |
| Snap share | 96.71% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 3.2 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 31.4% |
| Goal-line carry share | 43.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 8.4 |
The offense threw it 579 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Stefon Diggs | 29.36% |
| Dalton Kincaid | 16.7% |
| Gabe Davis | 14.86% |
| James Cook | 9.91% |
| Khalil Shakir | 8.26% |
| Dawson Knox | 6.61% |
5 of his 17 games were blowouts, 30.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 24.03 in those and 22.71 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 15 against MIA — 35.86 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 32-29. His worst was Week 11 against CLE at 12.58, on 0 targets, final score 31-23. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 12 times and came in under 8 points 0 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 24.4; in the 7 decided by more, 25.1. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 21 points per game. He scored 24.72, 14.8% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA | 31-10 | 31.48 | 0 | 10 | 56 | 4 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | TEN | 41-7 | 29.68 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 76% |
| 3 | MIA | 19-21 | 26.7 | 0 | 8 | 47 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 4 | BAL | 23-20 | 23.52 | 0 | 11 | 70 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 5 | PIT | 38-3 | 35.16 | 0 | 5 | 42 | 4 | 0% | 86% |
| 6 | KC | 24-20 | 26.36 | 0 | 12 | 32 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 8 | GB | 27-17 | 17.62 | 0 | 6 | 49 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 9 | NYJ | 17-20 | 24.8 | 0 | 9 | 86 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 10 | MIN | 30-33 | 19.6 | 0 | 6 | 84 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 11 | CLE | 31-23 | 12.58 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 12 | DET | 28-25 | 29.92 | 0 | 10 | 78 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 13 | NE | 24-10 | 16.92 | 0 | 8 | 20 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 14 | NYJ | 20-12 | 20.58 | 0 | 10 | 47 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 15 | MIA | 32-29 | 35.86 | 0 | 10 | 77 | 4 | 0% | 100% |
| 16 | CHI | 35-13 | 22.98 | 0 | 6 | 41 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 18 | NE | 35-23 | 21.76 | 0 | 9 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| Carries | 124 |
| Rushing yards | 762 |
| Touchdowns | 42 |
| Points per game | 24.72 |
| Yards per carry | 6.15 |
| Snap share | 97.63% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 2.52 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 28.6% |
| Goal-line carry share | 45.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 5.27 |
The offense threw it 574 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Stefon Diggs | 27.95% |
| Gabe Davis | 16.88% |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 11.8% |
| Dawson Knox | 11.8% |
| Devin Singletary | 9.44% |
| James Cook | 5.81% |
4 of his 16 games were blowouts, 30.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 29.82 in those and 24.44 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 3 against WAS — 37.22 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 43-21. His worst was Week 9 against JAX at 9.56, on 0 targets, final score 6-9. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 12 times and came in under 8 points 0 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 20.5; in the 12 decided by more, 25. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 22.1 points per game. He scored 23.68, 14.4% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PIT | 16-23 | 17.2 | 0 | 9 | 44 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | MIA | 35-0 | 16.66 | 0 | 5 | 35 | 2 | 0% | 97% |
| 3 | WAS | 43-21 | 37.22 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 0% | 90% |
| 4 | HOU | 40-0 | 20.02 | 0 | 6 | 41 | 2 | 0% | 88% |
| 5 | KC | 38-20 | 36.5 | 0 | 11 | 59 | 4 | 0% | 100% |
| 6 | TEN | 31-34 | 28.72 | 0 | 9 | 26 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 8 | MIA | 26-11 | 29.46 | 0 | 8 | 55 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 9 | JAX | 6-9 | 9.56 | 0 | 5 | 50 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 10 | NYJ | 45-17 | 20.94 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0% | 93% |
| 11 | IND | 15-41 | 16.16 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 89% |
| 12 | NO | 31-6 | 26.7 | 0 | 8 | 43 | 4 | 0% | 95% |
| 13 | NE | 10-14 | 11.7 | 0 | 6 | 39 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 14 | TB | 27-33 | 35.22 | 0 | 12 | 109 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 15 | CAR | 31-14 | 20.8 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 16 | NE | 33-21 | 30.96 | 0 | 12 | 64 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 17 | ATL | 29-15 | 20.9 | 0 | 15 | 81 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 18 | NYJ | 27-10 | 23.86 | 0 | 5 | 63 | 2 | 0% | 94% |
| Carries | 122 |
| Rushing yards | 763 |
| Touchdowns | 42 |
| Points per game | 23.68 |
| Yards per carry | 6.25 |
| Snap share | 96.82% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.06 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 3.27 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 28.3% |
| Goal-line carry share | 32.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 5.94 |
The offense threw it 655 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Stefon Diggs | 26.37% |
| Cole Beasley | 18.01% |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 11.58% |
| Dawson Knox | 11.41% |
| Gabe Davis | 10.13% |
| Devin Singletary | 8.04% |
9 of his 17 games were blowouts, 54.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 24.32 in those and 20.48 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 15 against DEN — 37.66 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 48-19. His worst was Week 8 against NE at 12.46, on 0 targets, final score 24-21. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 9 times and came in under 8 points 0 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 24.6; in the 10 decided by more, 24.9. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 22.4 points per game. He scored 24.75, 10% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYJ | 27-17 | 28.18 | 0 | 14 | 57 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | MIA | 31-28 | 34.5 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | LA | 35-32 | 31.24 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 0% | 100% |
| 4 | LV | 30-23 | 25.42 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 5 | TEN | 16-42 | 16.32 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 90% |
| 6 | KC | 17-26 | 15.08 | 0 | 8 | 42 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 7 | NYJ | 18-10 | 16.38 | 0 | 11 | 61 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 8 | NE | 24-21 | 12.46 | 0 | 10 | 23 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 9 | SEA | 44-34 | 36 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 100% |
| 10 | ARI | 30-32 | 27.36 | 12 | 7 | 38 | 3 | 2.2% | 100% |
| 12 | LAC | 27-17 | 15.48 | 0 | 9 | 32 | 2 | 0% | 98% |
| 13 | SF | 34-24 | 30.1 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 100% |
| 14 | PIT | 26-15 | 18.32 | 0 | 6 | 28 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 15 | DEN | 48-19 | 37.66 | 0 | 3 | 33 | 4 | 0% | 99% |
| 16 | NE | 38-9 | 32.3 | 0 | 4 | 35 | 4 | 0% | 79% |
| 17 | MIA | 56-26 | 19.26 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0% | 55% |
| Receptions | 1 |
| Targets | 1 |
| Receiving yards | 12 |
| Carries | 102 |
| Rushing yards | 421 |
| Touchdowns | 46 |
| Points per game | 24.75 |
| Yards per target | 12 |
| Catch rate | 100% |
| Yards per carry | 4.13 |
| Snap share | 95.06% |
| Target share | 0.14% |
| Air-yards share | -0.09% |
| WOPR | 0.001 |
| Average depth of target | -5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 17 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -5 |
| Total YAC | 17 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 156.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.14 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.01 |
| Red-zone targets | 1 |
| Red-zone target share | 1% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 26.7% |
| Goal-line carry share | 37.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.14 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.86 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 5.93 |
The offense threw it 595 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Stefon Diggs | 29.12% |
| Cole Beasley | 18.77% |
| Gabe Davis | 10.88% |
| John Brown | 9.12% |
| Devin Singletary | 8.77% |
| Dawson Knox | 7.72% |
4 of his 16 games were blowouts, 26.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 26.39 in those and 24.56 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
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