Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 10.98 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 162.3, usage worth 16.7.
24 years old · 1 season of experience · 2025 draft class
| SLEEPER | 191.9 |
| ESPN | 167.5 |
| YAHOO | 126 |
| UNDERDOG | 145.5 |
| CBS | 163.6 |
| FFA | 186 |
| Goes around | Round 14, pick 6 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | QB26 |
| Bye week | 9 |
| ADP standard deviation | 27.2 picks |
Our board has him at 271.2 points, 16.1 per game — 3,999 passing yards, 21.9 passing TDs, 200 rushing yards. That is QB5, 182 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 12.9 points per game to a ceiling of 22.4, with the median at 16.1. Boom rate 39%, bust rate 20%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 162.3 on consensus and our board has him 182. We rank him 19.7 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.
graded out as statistically the worst QB in the league by nearly every measurable metric as a rookie. Gets a real coaching upgrade this year, but the explicit read is he needs to be monitored on the waiver wire rather than drafted — no track record yet to justify the roster-spot risk.
hold · medium conviction · 2026-08Tennessee Titans returns 2 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1, te1, hc, oc. Cam Ward at quarterback, Robert Saleh as head coach, Brian Daboll calling it. The offense projects to 33.5 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 24.5 rushes.
In: Mitch Trubisky (qb2), Carnell Tate (wr1), Wan'Dale Robinson (wr2), Nicholas Singleton (rb3), Michael Carter (rb4), Daniel Bellinger (te2). Out: Tyler Lockett (wr4), Julius Chestnut (rb3), Chig Okonkwo (te1), Josh Whyle (te2).
The projected target split across the offense:
| Carnell Tate | 18.3% |
| Calvin Ridley | 18.3% |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 15.5% |
| Elic Ayomanor | 11.2% |
| Chimere Dike | 9.1% |
| Tyjae Spears | 8.9% |
What the offense looks like: It is an offense that could slowly be on the rise. It could QUICKLY be on the rise if Ward figures it out early in 2026 and could catch people off guard. Tate & Robinson are our primary targets. Ward is a great potential riser especially in SF. RB room is difficult to project, but Pollard it likely to be lead back in 2026 and could be a low end RB2 in fantasy.
Key additions: Titans HUGE adds to coaching staff that could turn this team aroud. HC Robert Saleh & former Giants (and QB whisperer) HC Brian Daboll head head to Tennessee and may a GREAT duo. Bring in WR Wan'Dale Robinson in free agency from NY (1000 yard slot WR last year) & draft WR Carnell Tate 4th overall. Beef up the O line with Austin Schlottmann & Volson. Drafted RB Nicholas Singleton in the 5th round (likely depth).
Key departures: HC Brian Callahan was fired after 1-5 start last season (ass) and this will be a huge help to the Titans offensive success. TE Chig Okonkwo left to Commanders in free agency
Notes: Titans draft Carnell Tate 1.04. Large potential for early breakout & Cam Ward to deliver at a high level. Calvin Ridley is trash but if Cam Ward can sling the rock could produce (we don't want to own Ridley). Ayomanor & Dike COULD be good if Ward produces but with Tate and Robinson around now will never be WR1 on the team. Could gain relevance though. Gunnar Helm entering 2nd year and should operate as TE1. Tony Pollard is aging & only has a few years left (not attractive to own). Tyjae Spears cannot stay healthy. Have to image the Titans will invest in another RB long term (Nicholas Singleton is probably not that guy either).
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Cam Ward returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (33.5 att/g); Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.5 att/g; New OC Brian Daboll — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Robert Saleh.
Base case 151.9 PPR points, with a bear case of 28 and a bull case of 317.6, and a comp mean of 164.2. The model puts 35% probability on him beating this and 65% on falling short. Drawn from 20 comparable quarterback seasons.
| Comparable season | What he actually scored | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young 2023 | 195 | 0.4 |
| Blake Bortles 2014 | 316.1 | 0.4 |
| Joe Flacco 2017 | 137.1 | 0.4 |
| Christian Ponder 2012 | 107 | 0.4 |
| Chad Henne 2013 | 30.2 | 0.5 |
Cross-check against the dynasty market: his production ranks in the 14th percentile and his value in the 45th, which the engine reads as well above production. Players with a similar production-against-value gap saw dynasty value move -8.7% over the following year, across 14 cases — a dynasty signal, not a 2026 scoring one.
Offensive environment: TEN rates 20.8 against a league average of 23, 2.2 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +5.1 · easier |
| Weeks 1–6 | +0.2 · neutral |
| Weeks 12–17 | +10 · easier |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +9.6 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full Cam Ward study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -7.7% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.8 elite seasons and 3.1 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 2024 | 13.9 | 73% | -0.9% |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 2021 | 13.9 | 71% | +18.6% |
| Kenny Pickett | 2022 | 11.5 | 70% | -27.7% |
| Drew Lock | 2020 | 13.9 | 68% | -46.3% |
| Trevor Lawrence | 2021 | 11.7 | 68% | +39.1% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 2 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2025, round 1, pick 1 by TEN |
| College | Miami (FL) |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| Height | 6′2″ |
| Weight | 219 lb |
His best game was Week 12 against SEA — 23.94 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 24-30. His worst was Week 1 against DEN at 2.48, on 0 targets, final score 12-20. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 11.7; in the 10 decided by more, 10.5. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 16.7 points per game. He scored 10.98, 34.4% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | 12-20 | 2.48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | LA | 19-33 | 9.8 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | IND | 20-41 | 11.96 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 4 | HOU | 0-26 | 4.52 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 5 | ARI | 22-21 | 8 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 6 | LV | 10-20 | 6.88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 7 | NE | 13-31 | 10.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 8 | IND | 14-38 | 12.76 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 9 | LAC | 20-27 | 6.4 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 11 | HOU | 13-16 | 13.06 | 0 | 3 | 33 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 12 | SEA | 24-30 | 23.94 | 0 | 6 | 37 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 13 | JAX | 3-25 | 6.34 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 14 | CLE | 31-29 | 11.08 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 15 | SF | 24-37 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 16 | KC | 26-9 | 18.02 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 17 | NO | 26-34 | 17.04 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 18 | JAX | 7-41 | 9.18 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 0% | 9% |
| Carries | 39 |
| Rushing yards | 159 |
| Touchdowns | 17 |
| Points per game | 10.98 |
| Yards per carry | 4.08 |
| Snap share | 94.65% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.5 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 16.7% |
| Goal-line carry share | 9.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 1.03 |
The offense threw it 570 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Elic Ayomanor | 16.82% |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 14.93% |
| Chimere Dike | 13.99% |
| Gunnar Helm | 10.4% |
| Van Jefferson | 9.83% |
| Tyjae Spears | 9.45% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward | 16 | 0 | 11.09 | — | 0% |
| Brandon Allen | 1 | 0 | 9.18 | — | 0% |
7 of his 17 games were blowouts, 39.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 10.43 in those and 11.71 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about Cam Ward →