Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 20.7 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 48.6, usage worth 18.5.
23 years old · 2 seasons of experience · 2024 draft class
| SLEEPER | 48.5 |
| ESPN | 47.8 |
| YAHOO | 47.2 |
| UNDERDOG | 67.2 |
| CBS | 50.9 |
| FFA | 56 |
| Goes around | Round 4, pick 13 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | QB3 |
| Bye week | 11 |
| ADP standard deviation | 1.6 picks |
Our board has him at 359 points, 21.4 per game — 4,218 passing yards, 30 passing TDs, 560 rushing yards. That is QB1, 56 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 17.1 points per game to a ceiling of 28.7, with the median at 21.4. Boom rate 34%, bust rate 20%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 48.6 on consensus and our board has him 56. We rank him 7.4 picks worse than the room drafts him, so at ADP he is mildly overpriced. That is an objection to the price and not to the player — if he falls past his slot he can be exactly the right pick.
finished as the #2 scoring QB last season, aided significantly by a historically easy schedule that kept the offense in short-field, positive-script spots constantly. Adding a true #1 WR (AJ Brown) and a second real weapon (Romeo Doubs) should raise the talent level around him even as the easy schedule disappears. Rushing efficiency dropped off relative to his rookie-year per-carry numbers, but he's expected to scramble more as games get more competitive against a tougher schedule.
buy · high conviction · 2026-08New England Patriots returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1, rb1. Drake Maye at quarterback, Mike Vrabel as head coach, Josh McDaniels calling it. The offense projects to 30.7 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 28.3 rushes.
In: Tommy DeVito (qb2), A.J. Brown (wr1), Romeo Doubs (wr2), Jam Miller (rb3), Lan Larison (rb4), Eli Raridon (te2). Out: Stefon Diggs (wr1), Antonio Gibson (rb3), Austin Hooper (te2).
The projected target split across the offense:
| A.J. Brown | 23.1% |
| Kayshon Boutte | 10.5% |
| Hunter Henry | 9.9% |
| Demario Douglas | 9.7% |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 9.4% |
| Romeo Doubs | 9.3% |
What the offense looks like: This is an offense that is only getting better. TreVeyon Henderson COULD become the true featured RB on this high powered offense. AJ Brown could produce 2-3 more years at a VERY high level before fading. Romeo Doubs fits in very well and if his connection builds with Maye, he could be a very viable WR2 in PPR formats.
Key additions: Romeo Doubs WR from GB on 4 year deal, AJ Brown traded to Patriots by Eagles in June 2026 (will be teams WR1 in 2026). Drafted Caleb Lomu 1st round LT. Drafted TE Eli Raridon 3rd round. Drafted RB Jam Miller 7th round.
Key departures: WR Stefon Diggs (released), RB Antonio Gibson (released), TE Austin Hooper (signed with Falcons), OT Vederian Lowe signed with 49ers (depth)
Notes: Maye dynasty franchise QB. Patriots signed Romeo Doubs from Packers (huge potential and solid player could be WR2). The Patriots WILL trade for AJ Brown from Eagles & he will be their WR1 next year. He has MASSIVE potential with Drake Maye. Henderson should operate as lead back in 2026, but Vrabel has done strange things with playing time for backs & Stevenson will work in. Henry is still TE1, but drafted Raridon round 3 TE — Vrabel uses TEs.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Drake Maye returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (29.5 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 30.7 att/g.
Base case 266.3 PPR points, with a bear case of 231.9 and a bull case of 416.9, and a comp mean of 294.6. The model puts 35% probability on him beating this and 65% on falling short. Drawn from 20 comparable quarterback seasons.
| Comparable season | What he actually scored | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson 2015 | 304.6 | 0.4 |
| Russell Wilson 2019 | 377.7 | 0.4 |
| Aaron Rodgers 2010 | 418.3 | 0.5 |
| Aaron Rodgers 2014 | 338.1 | 0.5 |
| Philip Rivers 2013 | 265.6 | 0.5 |
Cross-check against the dynasty market: his production ranks in the 55th percentile and his value in the 97th, which the engine reads as well above production. Players with a similar production-against-value gap saw dynasty value move -8.7% over the following year, across 14 cases — a dynasty signal, not a 2026 scoring one.
Offensive environment: NE rates 24.2 against a league average of 23, 1.2 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -3.2 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | -0.7 · neutral |
| Weeks 12–17 | -12.5 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -4 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full Drake Maye study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +39.6% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, QBs crash the following year 52% of the time (hold 48%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 52% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.8 elite seasons and 3.1 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 2021 | 21.5 | 64% | -17.6% |
| Joe Burrow | 2022 | 21.9 | 61% | +6.7% |
| Trevor Lawrence | 2023 | 16.4 | 60% | 0% |
| Daniel Jones | 2021 | 15.2 | 58% | +62.8% |
| Trevor Lawrence | 2022 | 17.4 | 57% | 0% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 1 lost it and 2 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2024, round 1, pick 3 by NWE |
| College | North Carolina |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 6′4″ |
| Weight | 223 lb |
| Career PPR per game | 17.7 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.4 |
| Boom rate | 4.2% |
| Bust rate | 4.2% |
| Games missed per season | 0 |
His best game was Week 17 against NYJ — 32.44 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 42-10. His worst was Week 5 against BUF at 12.12, on 0 targets, final score 23-20. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 9 times and came in under 8 points 0 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 19.5; in the 7 decided by more, 22.4. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 18.5 points per game. He scored 20.7, 7.2% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LV | 13-20 | 15.78 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 2.2% | 100% |
| 2 | MIA | 33-27 | 26.3 | 0 | 10 | 31 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | PIT | 14-21 | 19.22 | 0 | 7 | 45 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 4 | CAR | 42-13 | 23.22 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 88% |
| 5 | BUF | 23-20 | 12.12 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 6 | NO | 25-19 | 27.24 | 0 | 9 | 28 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 7 | TEN | 31-13 | 23.08 | 0 | 8 | 62 | 2 | 0% | 85% |
| 8 | CLE | 32-13 | 26.28 | 0 | 7 | 50 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 9 | ATL | 24-23 | 16.36 | 0 | 8 | 20 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 10 | TB | 28-23 | 18.1 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 11 | NYJ | 27-14 | 15.44 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 12 | CIN | 26-20 | 15.96 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 13 | NYG | 33-15 | 20.48 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 15 | BUF | 31-35 | 20.5 | 0 | 4 | 43 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 16 | BAL | 28-24 | 23.7 | 0 | 10 | 25 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 17 | NYJ | 42-10 | 32.44 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 5 | 0% | 79% |
| 18 | MIA | 38-10 | 15.74 | 0 | 5 | 41 | 1 | 0% | 76% |
| Receptions | 1 |
| Targets | 1 |
| Receiving yards | 2 |
| Carries | 103 |
| Rushing yards | 450 |
| Touchdowns | 35 |
| Points per game | 20.7 |
| Yards per target | 2 |
| Catch rate | 100% |
| Yards per carry | 4.37 |
| Snap share | 95.76% |
| Target share | 0.13% |
| Air-yards share | -0.14% |
| WOPR | 0.001 |
| Average depth of target | -8 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 10 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -8 |
| Total YAC | 10 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 79.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.08 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.66 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 20.6% |
| Goal-line carry share | 10.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 2.95 |
The offense threw it 502 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Stefon Diggs | 21.29% |
| Hunter Henry | 18.16% |
| Mack Hollins | 13.57% |
| Kayshon Boutte | 9.6% |
| Demario Douglas | 9.6% |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 8.77% |
6 of his 17 games were blowouts, 40.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 23.54 in those and 19.53 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 7 against JAX — 20.84 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 16-32. His worst was Week 18 against BUF at 0, on 0 targets, final score 23-16. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 13.7; in the 7 decided by more, 13.6. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 14.9 points per game. He scored 13.63, 8.3% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | NYJ | 3-24 | 2.08 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0% | 31% |
| 6 | HOU | 21-41 | 19.52 | 0 | 5 | 38 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 7 | JAX | 16-32 | 20.84 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 8 | NYJ | 25-22 | 11.52 | 0 | 3 | 46 | 1 | 0% | 30% |
| 9 | TEN | 17-20 | 15.74 | 0 | 8 | 95 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 10 | CHI | 19-3 | 11.76 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 11 | LA | 22-28 | 17.98 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 12 | MIA | 15-34 | 13.48 | 0 | 5 | 26 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 13 | IND | 24-25 | 19.42 | 0 | 5 | 59 | 1 | 0% | 99% |
| 15 | ARI | 17-30 | 17.48 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 16 | BUF | 21-24 | 17.44 | 0 | 6 | 30 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 17 | LAC | 7-40 | 9.88 | 0 | 6 | 32 | 1 | 0% | 81% |
| 18 | BUF | 23-16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 5% |
| Carries | 54 |
| Rushing yards | 421 |
| Touchdowns | 17 |
| Points per game | 13.63 |
| Yards per carry | 7.8 |
| Snap share | 80.46% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 1.55 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 7.1% |
| Goal-line carry share | 5.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.68 |
The offense threw it 529 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Hunter Henry | 19.48% |
| Demario Douglas | 17.47% |
| Kayshon Boutte | 13.65% |
| Austin Hooper | 11.85% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 8.23% |
| Kendrick Bourne | 7.63% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 10 | 0 | 16.35 | — | 0% |
| Jacoby Brissett | 2 | 0 | 6.8 | — | 0% |
| Joe Milton | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | 0% |
4 of his 13 games were blowouts, 25.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 11.24 in those and 13.68 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about Drake Maye →