QB · LAR · GWTTKB

Matthew Stafford — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 20.61 points per game in 2025, usage worth 18.2.

38 years old · 17 seasons of experience · 2009 draft class

Updated 2026-08-16 · free, no account, no paywall
Every figure below comes from our database. Where a stat is not held, the row is absent rather than zero.

What we project for 2026

Our board has him at 321.4 points, 19.1 per game — 4,556 passing yards, 36 passing TDs, 12 rushing yards. That is QB3, 98 overall.

The range runs from a floor of 15.2 points per game to a ceiling of 25.9, with the median at 19.1. Boom rate 35%, bust rate 20%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.

The offense he plays in, 2026

Los Angeles Rams returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing oc. Matthew Stafford at quarterback, Sean McVay as head coach, Nate Scheelhaase calling it. The offense projects to 33.5 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 26.5 rushes.

In: Ty Simpson (qb2), Jordan Whittington (wr3), Konata Mumpfield (wr4), CJ Daniels (wr5), Tyler Scott (wr7), Jarquez Hunter (rb4), Max Klare (te2). Out: Tutu Atwell (wr4), Davis Allen (te2).

The projected target split across the offense:

Puka Nacua26.9%
Davante Adams19.1%
Kyren Williams8.7%
Colby Parkinson8.5%
Max Klare8.3%
Jordan Whittington6.4%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

What the offense looks like: The highest producers in this offense will be incredibly valuable. Ty Simpson should maintain high value in dynasty at least until he starts in 2028 after Stafford leaves.

Key additions: Ty Simpson Drafted 13th overall. TE Max Klare 2nd round. OT Keagen Trost 3rd round. CJ Daniels WR 6th round.

Key departures: RT Rob Havenstein retired.

Notes: Rams draft Ty Simpson in the 1st round but Stafford is rumored to be signing 2 year extension. Simpson likely to sit until 2028 season. Best for him for development. Stafford will play at MVP level until retires more than likely. Puka has had off field trouble and spent time in Rehab, but should be ready by week 1. Rams draft TE Max Klare early & will likely be TE1 ahead of Parkinson but may not be. RB room is confusing, Corum has potential to overtake Kyren Williams in 2026 season. Both backs hold high value if the other is hurt. Adams only has 1 or 2 more years in him.

How the volume number was reached: Same QB Matthew Stafford returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (33.5 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.5 att/g; New OC Nate Scheelhaase — pass rate and tempo may shift.

How the quarterback projection was built

Base case 312.5 PPR points, with a bear case of 119.6 and a bull case of 419.6, and a comp mean of 284.9. The model puts 25% probability on him beating this and 75% on falling short. Drawn from 20 comparable quarterback seasons.

Comparable seasonWhat he actually scoredDistance
Matthew Stafford 2021108.40.4
Aaron Rodgers 2012181.60.5
Tom Brady 2020406.70.5
Peyton Manning 2014119.90.5
Tom Brady 20173210.5

Cross-check against the dynasty market: his production ranks in the 93th percentile and his value in the 21th, which the engine reads as well below production. Players with a similar production-against-value gap saw dynasty value move 1.2% over the following year, across 15 cases — a dynasty signal, not a 2026 scoring one.

Offensive environment: LAR rates 27 against a league average of 23, 4.1 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

Read the full Matthew Stafford study →

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved +25.6% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.8 elite seasons and 3.1 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

PlayerSeasonTheir PPGSimilarityNext year
Derek Carr202415.167%-53.1%
Tua Tagovailoa202416.566%-27.8%
Aaron Rodgers202415.164%+26.4%
Joe Burrow202421.962%-0.3%
Jared Goff20231761%+22.3%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 2 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

02,0004,0006,000202120222023202420252026
Monthly superflex value, 2020-06 to 2026-07. Down 23% across the series, peaking at 5,779.

The player

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game17.1
Week-to-week variation0.4
Boom rate12.5%
Bust rate15.3%
Games missed per season0.7
Injury historyConcussion
Correlation between his posted line and his actual score0.09

That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.

Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.

The record, season by season

2025 · LA · 17 games

His best game was Week 16 against SEA — 30.88 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 37-38. His worst was Week 6 against BAL at 9.34, on 0 targets, final score 17-3. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 10 times and came in under 8 points 0 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 18.9; in the 8 decided by more, 22.6. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 18.2 points per game. He scored 20.61, 13% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1HOU14-913.604-210%100%
2TEN33-1917.3202-620%100%
3PHI26-3313.8400020%100%
4IND27-2027.404430%100%
5SF23-2625.5601030%100%
6BAL17-39.3404110%100%
7JAX35-727.3802150%96%
9NO34-1026.8404-440%100%
10SF42-2626.903-340%100%
11SEA21-1913.200020%100%
12TB34-722.9200030%100%
13CAR28-3111.6201-120%100%
14ARI45-1723.2400030%83%
15DET41-3420.9201220%100%
16SEA37-3830.8802630%100%
17ATL24-2712.7600020%100%
18ARI37-2026.6601340%96%

Production

Carries29
Rushing yards1
Touchdowns46
Points per game20.61
Yards per carry0.03

Role

Snap share98.53%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game-1.87

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share4%
Goal-line carry share2.9%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs0.62

Who else ate

The offense threw it 597 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Puka Nacua28.57%
Davante Adams19.62%
Colby Parkinson9.64%
Kyren Williams8.61%
Tyler Higbee6.2%
Davis Allen5.68%

Blowouts against close games

5 of his 17 games were blowouts, 36.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 25.41 in those and 18.86 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2024 · LA · 16 games

His best game was Week 11 against NE — 27.8 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 28-22. His worst was Week 7 against LV at 3.96, on 0 targets, final score 20-15. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 12 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 13.2; in the 4 decided by more, 14.2. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 16.1 points per game. He scored 13.41, 13.7% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1DET20-2614.6800010%100%
2ARI10-416.6400000%100%
3SF27-2412.8400010%100%
4CHI18-244.8601-100%100%
5GB19-2412.400010%100%
7LV20-153.9602-200%100%
8MIN30-2024.7603-440%100%
9SEA26-2017.9201020%100%
10MIA15-239.7201000%100%
11NE28-2227.804040%100%
12PHI20-3719.22011520%100%
13NO21-1415.6204320%100%
14BUF44-4220.800020%100%
15SF12-68.2041800%100%
16NYJ19-9603-410%100%
17ARI13-99.16061600%100%

Production

Carries30
Rushing yards41
Touchdowns20
Points per game13.41
Yards per carry1.37

Role

Snap share100%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game-0.19

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share3.2%
Goal-line carry share3.6%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs0.5

Who else ate

The offense threw it 559 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Puka Nacua19.59%
Cooper Kupp18.48%
Demarcus Robinson11.83%
Tutu Atwell11.46%
Colby Parkinson9.06%
Tyler Johnson7.58%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 16 games were blowouts, 12.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 12.93 in those and 13.16 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2023 · LA · 15 games

His best game was Week 14 against BAL — 23.66 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 31-37. His worst was Week 11 against SEA at 9.7, on 0 targets, final score 17-16. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 0 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 15.6; in the 6 decided by more, 17. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 15.8 points per game. He scored 16.21, 5% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1SEA30-1314.46031100%100%
2SF23-3013.98041710%100%
3CIN16-1911.4601710%100%
4IND29-2316.16021410%100%
5PHI14-2316.8800020%100%
6ARI26-913.2401210%100%
7PIT17-2414.0401810%100%
8DAL20-4311.3801910%68%
11SEA17-169.702110%100%
12ARI37-1423.3601240%96%
13CLE36-1922.9601-230%100%
14BAL31-3723.6601-130%100%
15WAS28-2018.5201220%100%
16NO30-2220.7201-420%100%
17NYG26-2512.5801-110%100%

Production

Carries21
Rushing yards65
Touchdowns24
Points per game16.21
Yards per carry3.1

Role

Snap share97.6%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0.07
Rushing EPA per game0.26

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share3.3%
Goal-line carry share3.6%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs0.59

Who else ate

The offense threw it 583 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Puka Nacua28.83%
Cooper Kupp17.12%
Tyler Higbee12.61%
Tutu Atwell12.07%
Kyren Williams8.65%
Demarcus Robinson7.03%

Blowouts against close games

5 of his 15 games were blowouts, 35.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 17.08 in those and 15.65 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2022 · LA · 9 games

His best game was Week 2 against ATL — 18.88 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 31-27. His worst was Week 4 against SF at 6.76, on 0 targets, final score 9-24. Across 9 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 4 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 13.6; in the 5 decided by more, 10.8. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 15.6 points per game. He scored 12.04, 22.6% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1BUF10-317.801210%100%
2ATL31-2718.8800030%98%
3ARI20-1210.1603200%100%
4SF9-246.7602600%100%
5DAL10-2210.3200010%100%
6CAR24-1011.8202-310%100%
8SF14-3117.3802-120%100%
9TB13-1610.502-110%100%
11NO20-2714.7601420%59%

Production

Carries13
Rushing yards9
Touchdowns11
Points per game12.04
Yards per carry0.69

Role

Snap share95.22%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game-0.28

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share1.8%
Goal-line carry share6.7%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs0.43

Who else ate

The offense threw it 529 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Tyler Higbee20.93%
Cooper Kupp18.99%
Ben Skowronek11.82%
Allen Robinson10.08%
Van Jefferson8.53%
Tutu Atwell6.78%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 9 games were blowouts, 23.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 12.59 in those and 13.57 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2021 · LA · 17 games

His best game was Week 3 against TB — 29.52 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 34-24. His worst was Week 16 against MIN at 6.68, on 0 targets, final score 30-23. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 8 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 16.9; in the 11 decided by more, 20.8. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 17.5 points per game. He scored 19.4, 15.3% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1CHI34-1424.3405-530%100%
2IND27-2417.2202120%100%
3TB34-2429.5202-240%100%
4ARI20-3719.3062120%100%
5SEA26-1716.501-110%100%
6NYG38-1125.24021240%85%
7DET28-1927.1602-230%100%
8HOU38-2224.200030%87%
9TEN16-2813.06021310%100%
10SF10-319.8201110%100%
12GB28-3621.9801-130%100%
13JAX37-72401230%93%
14ARI30-2323.4800030%100%
15SEA20-1015.4603-320%100%
16MIN30-236.6803810%100%
17BAL20-1914.2601-120%100%
18SF24-2717.5200030%100%

Production

Carries32
Rushing yards43
Touchdowns41
Points per game19.4
Yards per carry1.34

Role

Snap share97.94%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game-0.11

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share8.7%
Goal-line carry share20%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs2.64

Who else ate

The offense threw it 606 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Cooper Kupp31.73%
Van Jefferson14.78%
Tyler Higbee14.12%
Robert Woods11.46%
Odell Beckham7.97%
Darrell Henderson6.64%

Blowouts against close games

5 of his 17 games were blowouts, 31.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 20.54 in those and 16.86 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2020 · DET · 16 games

His best game was Week 13 against CHI — 26.08 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 34-30. His worst was Week 16 against TB at 0.68, on 0 targets, final score 7-47. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 5 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 20.2; in the 8 decided by more, 12.4. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 16.8 points per game. He scored 16.29, 3.2% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1CHI23-2716.18052310%100%
2GB21-4216.1601420%100%
3ARI26-2318.501-320%100%
4NO29-3522.34032130%100%
6JAX34-1612.32051410%100%
7ATL23-2218.401810%100%
8IND21-4122.44011030%100%
9MIN20-348.4400010%80%
10WAS30-2723.0400030%100%
11CAR0-207.6204500%100%
12HOU25-4116.101312.4%100%
13CHI34-3026.0802030%100%
14GB24-3114.3601610%90%
15TEN25-4615.28021210%86%
16TB7-470.6800000%8%
17MIN35-3722.6202930%100%

Production

Targets1
Carries29
Rushing yards112
Touchdowns26
Points per game16.29
Yards per target0
Catch rate0%
Yards per carry3.86

Role

Snap share91.5%
Target share0.15%
Air-yards share0.27%
WOPR0.004

Efficiency

Average depth of target15
Yards after catch per reception0
Yards before catch per reception0
Total YAC0
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted39.6
Receiving EPA per game-0.03
Rushing EPA per game0.26

Scoring position

Red-zone targets1
Red-zone target share1.4%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share9.9%
Expected receiving TDs0.14
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck-0.14
Expected rushing TDs0.34

Who else ate

The offense threw it 582 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Marvin Jones20.61%
T.J. Hockenson18.1%
Danny Amendola12.37%
D'Andre Swift10.22%
Quintez Cephus6.27%
Kenny Golladay5.73%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Matthew Stafford15117.3300.16%
Chase Daniel100.680%

Blowouts against close games

6 of his 16 games were blowouts, 28.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 12.42 in those and 20.19 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

Ask the Coach about Matthew Stafford →
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