Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 14.9 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 161, usage worth 17.2.
24 years old · 3 seasons of experience · 2023 draft class
| SLEEPER | 188.3 |
| ESPN | 166 |
| YAHOO | 126.2 |
| UNDERDOG | 145.9 |
| CBS | 163.5 |
| FFA | 148 |
| Goes around | Round 14, pick 5 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | QB24 |
| Bye week | 8 |
| ADP standard deviation | 25.7 picks |
Our board has him at 287.2 points, 17.1 per game — 4,292 passing yards, 22.9 passing TDs, 246 rushing yards. That is QB4, 147 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 13.7 points per game to a ceiling of 23.4, with the median at 17.1. Boom rate 37%, bust rate 20%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 161 on consensus and our board has him 147. We rank him 14 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
his special rookie season is attributed to an unsustainably high level of pure accuracy/efficiency that masked how little rushing production he actually offered — once that naturally regressed toward normal in year two, the floor dropped hard with no rushing equity underneath to cushion the fall. The team's elite defense plus adding a true lead RB both point toward wanting to lean on the run/defense to win low-scoring games rather than needing Stroud to throw 40+ times, capping the passing volume he'd need to bounce back.
hold · medium conviction · 2026-08Houston Texans returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing rb1. CJ Stroud at quarterback, Demeco Ryans as head coach, Nick Caley calling it. The offense projects to 34 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 27.5 rushes.
In: Nathaniel Dell (wr3), Lewis Bond (wr7), David Montgomery (rb1), Noah Whittington (rb4), Foster Moreau (te2). Out: Nick Chubb (rb2), Cade Stover (te2).
The projected target split across the offense:
| Nico Collins | 21.3% |
| Dalton Schultz | 14% |
| Jayden Higgins | 11.5% |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 8.6% |
| Jaylin Noel | 7.1% |
| Nathaniel Dell | 6.2% |
What the offense looks like: If this offense could produce at a higher level than 2025, this will be an offense you want to have pieces of. David Montgomery COULD be a very interesting high end RB2 as long as RB Woody Marks does not eat into his PT too much. Houston also has arguably the best defense in the entire NFL. they will keep them in every game & force turnovers to get this offense the ball back.
Key additions: Texans signed starting LG Wyatt Teller & starting RT Braden Smith this offseason. Also drafted C Keylan Rutledge in the 1st round. all 3 upgrades to last year. Should help protect CJ Stroud & HOPEFULLY GET A RUN GAME GOING IN HOUSTON. Traded for Lions RB David Montgomery. Joe mixon saw great success in 2024 & Montgomery COULD see a high degree of success too. Drafted WR Lewis Bond as well who does not have immediate upside.
Notes: Nico Collins remains a high producing dynasty WR when CJ Stroud plays well. Texans have to improve O line play for offense to provide large fantasy relevance. Traded for David Montgomery from the Lions & He will operate as RB1 with Woody Marks expected to also work in. CJ Stroud has struggled since his rookie season & is a mid range QB2 most weeks in fantasy. Texans do expect to extend him long term despite poor play. Jayden Higgins is an interesting year 2 breakout candidate but Tank Dell also returns in 2026 (We will see if his knee still works).
How the volume number was reached: Same QB CJ Stroud returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (34.2 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 34 att/g.
Base case 157.2 PPR points, with a bear case of 63.1 and a bull case of 240.1, and a comp mean of 159.4. The model puts 20% probability on him beating this and 80% on falling short. Drawn from 20 comparable quarterback seasons.
| Comparable season | What he actually scored | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck 2010 | 190 | 0.4 |
| Brian Hoyer 2015 | 79.6 | 0.5 |
| Tua Tagovailoa 2021 | 230.9 | 0.5 |
| Matt Hasselbeck 2011 | 76.5 | 0.5 |
| Mark Sanchez 2010 | 237.3 | 0.5 |
Cross-check against the dynasty market: his production ranks in the 17th percentile and his value in the 38th, which the engine reads as above production. Players with a similar production-against-value gap saw dynasty value move -19.6% over the following year, across 24 cases — a dynasty signal, not a 2026 scoring one.
Offensive environment: HOU rates 22.5 against a league average of 23, 0.5 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +3.2 · easier |
| Weeks 1–6 | +6.5 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | +3.8 · easier |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -6.2 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3 | Davis Mills | +16.2 |
| 2023 | 2 | Davis Mills | +8.1 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -26.7% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-crash. The base rate that applies: after a -25% crash, QBs recover only 30% of the time (keep falling 70%).
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.8 elite seasons and 3.1 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 2022 | 13.4 | 81% | -42.1% |
| Trevor Lawrence | 2024 | 14.5 | 77% | +31.6% |
| Derek Carr | 2022 | 14.6 | 74% | -9.2% |
| Taylor Heinicke | 2022 | 12.9 | 73% | -23.2% |
| Mac Jones | 2022 | 12.1 | 70% | -37.9% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 4 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2023, round 1, pick 2 by HOU |
| College | Ohio St. |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| Height | 6′3″ |
| Weight | 214 lb |
| Career PPR per game | 15.6 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.5 |
| Boom rate | 16.2% |
| Bust rate | 13.5% |
| Games missed per season | 1.7 |
| Injury history | Concussion |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.41 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 5 against BAL — 28.76 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 44-10. His worst was Week 9 against DEN at 4.36, on 0 targets, final score 15-18. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 11.5; in the 5 decided by more, 21. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 17.2 points per game. He scored 14.9, 19.4% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA | 9-14 | 8.72 | 0 | 5 | 32 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | TB | 19-20 | 14.98 | 0 | 4 | 27 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | JAX | 10-17 | 10.36 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 4 | TEN | 26-0 | 18.42 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 5 | BAL | 44-10 | 28.76 | 0 | 1 | 30 | 4 | 0% | 80% |
| 7 | SEA | 19-27 | 13.66 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 8 | SF | 26-15 | 21.72 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 9 | DEN | 15-18 | 4.36 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0% | 32% |
| 13 | IND | 20-16 | 9.04 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 14 | KC | 20-10 | 12.62 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 15 | ARI | 40-20 | 23.4 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 16 | LV | 23-21 | 11.48 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 17 | LAC | 20-16 | 13.76 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 18 | IND | 38-30 | 17.26 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 65% |
| Carries | 48 |
| Rushing yards | 209 |
| Touchdowns | 20 |
| Points per game | 14.9 |
| Yards per carry | 4.35 |
| Snap share | 91.21% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 1.07 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 6% |
| Goal-line carry share | 4.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.67 |
The offense threw it 582 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Nico Collins | 21.7% |
| Dalton Schultz | 19.17% |
| Jayden Higgins | 12.3% |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 10.31% |
| Christian Kirk | 9.4% |
| Woody Marks | 6.51% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 13 | 0 | 15.71 | — | 0% |
| Davis Mills | 1 | 0 | 4.36 | — | 0% |
3 of his 14 games were blowouts, 33.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 23.53 in those and 11.51 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 4 against JAX — 23.5 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 24-20. His worst was Week 7 against GB at 5.34, on 0 targets, final score 22-24. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 12 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 14.1; in the 5 decided by more, 10.2. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 16.6 points per game. He scored 12.96, 20.1% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND | 29-27 | 18.66 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | CHI | 19-13 | 14.3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | MIN | 7-34 | 9.8 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 0% | 81% |
| 4 | JAX | 24-20 | 23.5 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 5 | BUF | 23-20 | 15.94 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 6 | NE | 41-21 | 18.38 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 0% | 95% |
| 7 | GB | 22-24 | 5.34 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 8 | IND | 23-20 | 12.4 | 0 | 1 | -10 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 9 | NYJ | 13-21 | 11.54 | 0 | 8 | 59 | 0 | 3.4% | 100% |
| 10 | DET | 23-26 | 9.78 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 11 | DAL | 34-10 | 10.88 | 0 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 12 | TEN | 27-32 | 15.68 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 13 | JAX | 23-20 | 14.38 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 15 | MIA | 20-12 | 11.64 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 16 | KC | 19-27 | 16.06 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 17 | BAL | 2-31 | 6.1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0% | 88% |
| 18 | TEN | 23-14 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 18% |
| Targets | 1 |
| Carries | 52 |
| Rushing yards | 233 |
| Touchdowns | 20 |
| Points per game | 12.96 |
| Yards per target | 0 |
| Catch rate | 0% |
| Yards per carry | 4.48 |
| Snap share | 93.06% |
| Target share | 0.2% |
| Air-yards share | 0.12% |
| WOPR | 0.004 |
| Average depth of target | 10 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 0 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 0 |
| Total YAC | 0 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 39.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.04 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.42 |
| Red-zone targets | 1 |
| Red-zone target share | 1.4% |
| End-zone target share | 3.2% |
| Red-zone carry share | 9.7% |
| Goal-line carry share | 11.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.32 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.32 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 1.22 |
The offense threw it 570 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Nico Collins | 18.17% |
| Dalton Schultz | 15.6% |
| Tank Dell | 14.86% |
| Stefon Diggs | 11.74% |
| Joe Mixon | 9.54% |
| John Metchie III | 6.79% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 16 | 1 | 13.4 | 0 | 0.21% |
| Davis Mills | 1 | 0 | 6 | — | 0% |
4 of his 17 games were blowouts, 20.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 11.29 in those and 14.1 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 9 against TB — 41.8 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 39-37. His worst was Week 14 against NYJ at 3.64, on 0 targets, final score 6-30. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 6 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 20.5; in the 6 decided by more, 15.2. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 15.7 points per game. He scored 18.4, 14.3% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 9-25 | 10.68 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 2.3% | 100% |
| 2 | IND | 20-31 | 21.46 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | JAX | 37-17 | 20.6 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 4 | PIT | 30-6 | 21.84 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 5 | ATL | 19-21 | 14.16 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 6 | NO | 20-13 | 14.16 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 8 | CAR | 13-15 | 12.9 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 9 | TB | 39-37 | 41.8 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 0% | 100% |
| 10 | CIN | 30-27 | 19.04 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 11 | ARI | 21-16 | 15.34 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 0% | 99% |
| 12 | JAX | 21-24 | 30.86 | 0 | 6 | 47 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 13 | DEN | 22-17 | 16.06 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 0% | 97% |
| 14 | NYJ | 6-30 | 3.64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 86% |
| 17 | TEN | 26-3 | 12.92 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 95% |
| 18 | IND | 23-19 | 20.56 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| Receptions | 1 |
| Targets | 1 |
| Carries | 39 |
| Rushing yards | 167 |
| Touchdowns | 26 |
| Points per game | 18.4 |
| Yards per target | 0 |
| Catch rate | 100% |
| Yards per carry | 4.28 |
| Snap share | 98.47% |
| Target share | 0.15% |
| Air-yards share | -0.03% |
| WOPR | 0.002 |
| Average depth of target | -1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -1 |
| Total YAC | 1 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 79.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.06 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.41 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 11% |
| Goal-line carry share | 17.9% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 2.4 |
The offense threw it 592 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Nico Collins | 19.75% |
| Dalton Schultz | 15.94% |
| Robert Woods | 13.59% |
| Tank Dell | 13.59% |
| Noah Brown | 9.96% |
| Devin Singletary | 6.88% |
4 of his 15 games were blowouts, 21.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 14.75 in those and 20.54 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about C.J. Stroud →