Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 13.63 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 166, usage worth 16.9.
25 years old · 3 seasons of experience · 2023 draft class
| SLEEPER | 206.3 |
| ESPN | 168.3 |
| YAHOO | 123.5 |
| UNDERDOG | 161.9 |
| FFA | 191 |
| Goes around | Round 14, pick 10 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | QB27 |
| Bye week | 5 |
| ADP standard deviation | 41.4 picks |
Our board has him at 270.6 points, 16.1 per game — 3,769 passing yards, 23.9 passing TDs, 214 rushing yards. That is QB5, 186 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 12.8 points per game to a ceiling of 22.1, with the median at 16.1. Boom rate 37%, bust rate 20%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 166 on consensus and our board has him 186. We rank him 20 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.
League-average at best and tends to fall apart against good defenses — which the brutal Panthers schedule is full of. Not a target.
fade · medium conviction · 2026-06-05Carolina Panthers returns 6 of 6 continuity slots — the whole offense is intact. Bryce Young at quarterback, Dave Canales as head coach, Brad Idzik calling it. The offense projects to 31.3 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 26.9 rushes.
In: Kenny Pickett (qb2), Chris Brazzell II (wr3), John Metchie III (wr5), Jonathon Brooks (rb2), AJ Dillon (rb4). Out: Rico Dowdle (rb2).
The projected target split across the offense:
| Tetairoa McMillan | 21.4% |
| Jalen Coker | 11.9% |
| Xavier Legette | 10.6% |
| Chris Brazzell II | 8.3% |
| David Moore | 8.2% |
| Chuba Hubbard | 8.1% |
What the offense looks like: Bryce Young does not currently hold non SF fantasy value, but if he breaks out in 2026, he certainly will. However, if Bryce regresses, this offense will be BRUTAL to own any part of. This is a fairly high risk high reward offense to have pieces of. McMillan, Coker, Brooks, and even Metchie III & Brazzell II COULD see their value improve in 2026.
Key additions: Drafted WR Chris Brazell II in the 3rd round from Tennessee. signed WR John Metchie III in free agency on 1 year deal. signed C Luke Fortner & LT Rasheed Walker (projected Starter) from GB. Panthers signed QB Kenny Pickett (Garbage) to back up Bryce Young. AJ Dillon was also signed as 3rd/4th string RB.
Key departures: Lost G/C Austin Corbett to Bills in free agency. Lost Rico Dowdle RB to Steelers in Free agency
Notes: McMillan year 2 primary target share expected. Brazzell round 3 deep threat. Young has 5th year option picked up. Trending in the right direction. Hubbard serviceable, but the former 2nd round pick Jonathon Brooks is coming back from second ACL tear(great potential but all dynasty managers know). it will be interesting to see how Chris Brazzell II works into offense but expect Jalen Coker to be WR2. Xavier Legette may be traded early in the season. Panthers also added WR John Metchie III (Bryce Young's college teammate). This TE room is BRUTAL & you have no business owning any TE on this team. Carolina also may be in the market for a free agent TE like David Njoku (or may potentially trade for one). .
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Bryce Young returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (30.3 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 31.3 att/g.
Base case 143.1 PPR points, with a bear case of 18.8 and a bull case of 303.3, and a comp mean of 159.7. The model puts 30% probability on him beating this and 70% on falling short. Drawn from 20 comparable quarterback seasons.
| Comparable season | What he actually scored | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick 2012 | 167.7 | 0.3 |
| Christian Ponder 2012 | 107 | 0.4 |
| Jacoby Brissett 2019 | 20.6 | 0.4 |
| Andy Dalton 2017 | 174.5 | 0.4 |
| Mark Sanchez 2011 | 118.1 | 0.4 |
Cross-check against the dynasty market: his production ranks in the 10th percentile and his value in the 28th, which the engine reads as above production. Players with a similar production-against-value gap saw dynasty value move -19.6% over the following year, across 24 cases — a dynasty signal, not a 2026 scoring one.
Offensive environment: CAR rates 20.9 against a league average of 23, 2.1 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -1.3 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | -1.4 · neutral |
| Weeks 12–17 | -1.5 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +5 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full Bryce Young study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -19.2% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.8 elite seasons and 3.1 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 2021 | 13.1 | 73% | +11.9% |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 2021 | 13.9 | 70% | +18.6% |
| Trevor Lawrence | 2022 | 17.4 | 68% | 0% |
| Davis Mills | 2022 | 12.1 | 67% | -45.8% |
| Mac Jones | 2022 | 12.1 | 67% | -37.9% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 2 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2023, round 1, pick 1 by CAR |
| College | Alabama |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 5′10″ |
| Weight | 204 lb |
| Career PPR per game | 13.1 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.6 |
| Boom rate | 27% |
| Bust rate | 18.9% |
| Games missed per season | 0.7 |
| Injury history | Ankle |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.4 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 11 against ATL — 31.82 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 30-27. His worst was Week 10 against NO at 1.56, on 0 targets, final score 7-17. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 16.9; in the 6 decided by more, 8.1. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 16.9 points per game. He scored 13.63, 16.9% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX | 10-26 | 8.16 | 0 | 5 | 40 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | ARI | 22-27 | 21.32 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | ATL | 30-0 | 11.64 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0% | 98% |
| 4 | NE | 13-42 | 10.3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 81% |
| 5 | MIA | 27-24 | 12.02 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 6 | DAL | 30-27 | 18.46 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 7 | NYJ | 13-6 | 10.52 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 0% | 69% |
| 9 | GB | 16-13 | 2.98 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 10 | NO | 7-17 | 1.56 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 11 | ATL | 30-27 | 31.82 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 12 | SF | 9-20 | 8.26 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 13 | LA | 31-28 | 22.54 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 15 | NO | 17-20 | 15.42 | 0 | 7 | 49 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 16 | TB | 23-20 | 17.64 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 17 | SEA | 10-27 | 8.86 | 0 | 9 | 27 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 18 | TB | 14-16 | 16.54 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| Carries | 54 |
| Rushing yards | 216 |
| Touchdowns | 25 |
| Points per game | 13.63 |
| Yards per carry | 4 |
| Snap share | 96.75% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.26 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 13% |
| Goal-line carry share | 14.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 1.38 |
The offense threw it 515 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Tetairoa McMillan | 25.42% |
| Xavier Legette | 13.33% |
| Rico Dowdle | 10.42% |
| Jalen Coker | 8.96% |
| Chuba Hubbard | 8.13% |
| Tommy Tremble | 7.71% |
3 of his 16 games were blowouts, 14.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 10.27 in those and 16.93 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 18 against ATL — 36.44 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 44-38. His worst was Week 7 against WAS at -0.16, on 0 targets, final score 7-40. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 19.7; in the 7 decided by more, 8.1. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 14.7 points per game. He scored 13.93, 5% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | 10-47 | 9.64 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 0% | 92% |
| 2 | LAC | 3-26 | 1.96 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 5 | CHI | 10-36 | 3.12 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 15% |
| 7 | WAS | 7-40 | -0.16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 7% |
| 8 | DEN | 14-28 | 13.56 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 9 | NO | 23-22 | 9.74 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 10 | NYG | 20-17 | 12.04 | 0 | 2 | 30 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 12 | KC | 27-30 | 16.52 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 13 | TB | 23-26 | 23.62 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 14 | PHI | 16-22 | 12.54 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 15 | DAL | 14-30 | 11.96 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 16 | ARI | 36-30 | 27.12 | 0 | 5 | 68 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 17 | TB | 14-48 | 16.92 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 18 | ATL | 44-38 | 36.44 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 5 | 0% | 100% |
| Carries | 43 |
| Rushing yards | 249 |
| Touchdowns | 21 |
| Points per game | 13.93 |
| Yards per carry | 5.79 |
| Snap share | 86.71% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 1.11 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 14.3% |
| Goal-line carry share | 10.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 1.94 |
The offense threw it 545 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Xavier Legette | 16.25% |
| Adam Thielen | 11.99% |
| Diontae Johnson | 11.22% |
| David Moore | 11.03% |
| Chuba Hubbard | 10.44% |
| Jalen Coker | 8.9% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 12 | 0 | 16 | — | 0% |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | 0 | 1.48 | — | 0% |
5 of his 14 games were blowouts, 16.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.3 in those and 19.72 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 16 against GB — 22.18 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 30-33. His worst was Week 17 against JAX at 2.68, on 0 targets, final score 0-26. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 11.2; in the 8 decided by more, 8.4. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 15.8 points per game. He scored 9.77, 38.3% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL | 10-24 | 7.54 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | NO | 17-20 | 13.52 | 0 | 2 | 34 | 1 | 0% | 98% |
| 4 | MIN | 13-21 | 7.16 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 5 | DET | 24-42 | 18.28 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0% | 99% |
| 6 | MIA | 21-42 | 12.68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 8 | HOU | 15-13 | 14.5 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 9 | IND | 13-27 | 9.02 | 0 | 5 | 41 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 10 | CHI | 13-16 | 9.2 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 11 | DAL | 10-33 | 5.22 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 12 | TEN | 10-17 | 8.06 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 13 | TB | 18-21 | 7.12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 14 | NO | 6-28 | 7.48 | 0 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 15 | ATL | 9-7 | 7.58 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 16 | GB | 30-33 | 22.18 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 17 | JAX | 0-26 | 2.68 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 18 | TB | 0-9 | 4.16 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| Carries | 39 |
| Rushing yards | 253 |
| Touchdowns | 11 |
| Points per game | 9.77 |
| Yards per carry | 6.49 |
| Snap share | 99.81% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 1.42 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 6.6% |
| Goal-line carry share | 6.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.57 |
The offense threw it 585 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Adam Thielen | 25.66% |
| Jonathan Mingo | 15.92% |
| D.J. Chark | 12.36% |
| Chuba Hubbard | 8.24% |
| Miles Sanders | 7.68% |
| Terrace Marshall | 6.18% |
5 of his 16 games were blowouts, 29.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9.27 in those and 11.16 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about Bryce Young →