Deshaun Watson
Overview
Board Oct 12Week 5 rest-of-season review, Oct 12, 2026. The three reads are where our backtested model, the betting market and his 2026 production each place him at QB; our board rank is the call.
Where his stats say he could finish from here: QB27 to QB36. Our rank stays the call.
2026 so far5 games
- 33 rushing yards a game (6th of 32 QBs)
- 1.19 INTs per 100 dropbacks (8th of 32 QBs)
- 11.3% sack rate (31st of 32 QBs)
- 202 passing yards a game (25th of 32 QBs)
Ranked among 32 qualified QBs this season.
80% range 10.9–20.5 half-PPR points a game. Biggest inputs: 2024 PPG -0.4, carries per game +0.4, passing EPA +0.3, trade value now -0.2. The model informs the rank; it does not set it.
Week 6
Lines Oct 14CLE
BALUpdated Oct 14, 2026, built on a CLE team total of 18.5. Rank is among every QB we project this week.
Allowed to QBs per game across 5 games. Best games against them: Tyler Shough (W2, 22.38 PPR, 252 py, 1 TD); Dak Prescott (W3, 18.94 PPR, 276 py, 1 TD); Cam Ward (W4, 15.58 PPR, 222 py, 1 TD).
EPA ranks entering Week 6: #23 against the pass, #13 against the run (1 = best defense).
Big number: QB passing points BAL allows a game to QBs in that zone. # = its rank of 32. Green tag = Deshaun Watson's share of his attempts in that zone this season. Depth is air yards at the catch point; 5 games, through Week 5. Tap a zone for the detail.
Against BAL beforelast 3
| Game | Line | Pts |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 W10@ BAL · W 33-31 | 20/34 213 yds 1 TD 1 INT · 8-37 rush | 16.2 |
| 2022 W15vs BAL · W 13-3 | 18/28 161 yds 1 TD · 6-22 rush | 12.6 |
| 2020 W2vs BAL · L 16-33 | 25/36 275 yds 1 TD · 5-17 rush | 14.7 |
155py 1ptd, 6-40 rush, 1 fum lost
Game log
2026 · through W5Every gametap a game for the detail
CLE +8.5 (closing) · total 40.5 · 89°F, wind 3 mph · 7 days rest
Projected 13.4 (QB28) · CLE +8.5 (closing) · total 41.5 · 86°F, wind 4 mph · 7 days rest
Projected 14.1 (QB26) · CLE +2.5 (closing) · total 41.5 · 68°F, wind 12 mph · 7 days rest
Projected 14.7 (QB23) · CLE +2.5 (closing) · total 38.5 · 77°F, wind 11 mph · 4 days rest · prime time · division game
Projected 16.4 (QB16) · CLE +2.5 (closing) · total 38.5 · 10 days rest
D# = the opponent's rank against QBs entering that week (1 = stingiest, 32 = softest). Finish = his rank at QB that week.
Usage
What changedlast 3 full games vs. before
| W1, W2 | W3, W4, W5 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Snap share | 100.0% | 99.7% | −0.3 |
| Attempts a game | 26.0 | 32.0 | +6.0 |
| Carries a game | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 |
Games he left injured are left out of both sides.
CLE target treeshare of team targets, 2026
Season to date, games each player played.
Role details2026, through Week 5
Advanced
Percentile against the QBs on our charts (each stat's minimum is next to it), 2026 through Week 5. 50 is the middle of the pack. Tap a bubble for his rank.
Leaderboardstop 10 among QBs, 2026
Splits
As a runner2026 charted carries, through Week 5
| Situation | Car | Yds-TD | YPC | Success |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All carries | 30 | 173-0 | 5.86.1 | 50%61% |
| Red zone20% of carries | 6 | 23-0 | 3.83.9 | 33%54% |
| Inside the 107% of carries | 2 | 4-0 | 2.02.1 | 0%56% |
| Third down47% of carries | 14 | 98-0 | 7.05.7 | 50%69% |
| Score within 767% of carries | 20 | 131-0 | 6.66.3 | 40%60% |
| Trailing by 8+23% of carries | 7 | 46-0 | 6.66.3 | 86%59% |
| Leading by 8+10% of carries | 3 | -4-0 | -1.35.1 | 33%71% |
| Light box (6 or fewer)73% of carries | 22 | 124-0 | 5.67.3 | 50%57% |
| RPO3% of carries | 1 | 9-0 | 9.04.5 | 100%40% |
Box counts from FTN charting. Small grey number = every QB in that situation.
As a passer2026 charted dropbacks, through Week 5
| Situation | DB | Cmp% | Y/A | TD-INT | EPA/db |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All dropbacks | 167 | 64% | 6.8 | 7-2 | -0.010.05 |
| Clean pocket65% of dropbacks | 108 | 69% | 7.2 | 6-0 | 0.370.23 |
| Under duress35% of dropbacks | 59 | 53% | 5.8 | 1-2 | -0.71-0.42 |
| No blitz62% of dropbacks | 103 | 64% | 6.3 | 5-1 | 0.040.08 |
| Vs. the blitz38% of dropbacks | 64 | 64% | 7.7 | 2-1 | -0.09-0.03 |
| Play action20% of dropbacks | 33 | 63% | 5.9 | 1-1 | -0.120.10 |
| Red zone10% of dropbacks | 17 | 71% | 4.0 | 4-0 | 0.210.12 |
| Third down25% of dropbacks | 42 | 47% | 4.5 | 4-0 | -0.20-0.08 |
| Leading by 8+5% of dropbacks | 9 | 56% | 3.6 | 0-1 | -0.350.21 |
| Trailing by 8+18% of dropbacks | 30 | 80% | 9.0 | 1-0 | -0.120.04 |
Duress = sacked, hit or out of the pocket. Small grey number = every QB in that situation. 5 interception-worthy throws and 4 throwaways on 148 charted attempts.
Team
CLECleveland Browns offense, 2026 through Week 5. Rank 1 = most. Scheme rates from FTN charting through Week 5.
Game by gamescore, implied total, pass rate (over expected), QB
| Week | Score | Implied | Pass rate | QB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1vs JAX | 10-34 | 16.0 | 55%−16.4 | Watson22 att |
| W2vs TB | 23-19 | 16.5 | 60%−0.2 | Watson30 att |
| W3vs CAR | 21-18 | 19.5 | 55%−5.9 | Watson30 att |
| W4vs PIT | 27-24 | 18.0 | 58%+1.5 | Watson33 att |
| W5vs NYJ | 12-17 | 18.0 | 63%−7.6 | Watson33 att |
Depth chartQB, Oct 14
Scheduleeach defense's current rank vs QBs
Green = soft, red = stingy (1 = stingiest, 32 = softest), ranked on fantasy points allowed to QBs so far. Gold underline = fantasy playoffs. Does strength of schedule matter? ›
Head coach: Todd Monken. QB: Deshaun Watson (most pass attempts, Week 5).
Charts
Deshaun Watson is highlighted on each chart. Swipe for more; tap a dot for the player. Every chart saves and shares as an image on the Charts page.
Career
Season by season
| Year | G | Passing / rushing | Pts/g | xFP/g |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026CLE | 5 | 1,010 yds, 7 TD, 2 INT167 rush yds, 0 TD | 15.8QB22 | — |
| 2024CLE | 7 | 1,148 yds, 5 TD, 3 INT148 rush yds, 1 TD | 11.0 | 17.2−44.0 |
| 2023CLE | 6 | 1,115 yds, 7 TD, 4 INT142 rush yds, 1 TD | 14.5 | 15.3−5.2 |
| 2022CLE | 6 | 1,102 yds, 7 TD, 5 INT175 rush yds, 1 TD | 14.3 | 16.6−14.0 |
| 2020HOU | 16 | 4,823 yds, 33 TD, 7 INT444 rush yds, 3 TD | 23.1QB5 | 20.4+43.4 |
Under points a game: his rank at QB in points a game (8+ games; 2026: 2+ games). xFP = expected PPR a game from his usage; under it, the season's points over expected.
Red zone and touchdowns
| 2024 | 21 RZ att, 4 pass TD vs 4.4 exp · 4 RZ car (8%), 2 inside 5, 1 rush TD vs 0.9 exp |
| 2023 | 22 RZ att, 6 pass TD vs 4.4 exp · 3 RZ car (4%), 0 inside 5, 1 rush TD vs 0.2 exp |
| 2022 | 34 RZ att, 5 pass TD vs 6.8 exp · 3 RZ car (4%), 1 inside 5, 1 rush TD vs 0.5 exp |
| 2020 | 96 RZ att, 18 pass TD vs 22.9 exp · 16 RZ car (36%), 5 inside 5, 3 rush TD vs 2.8 exp |
Floor and ceilingPPR
2 of his last 11 games reached 20 PPR; 2 finished under 10. Is there a floor-vs-ceiling trade-off? ›
Every game since 2020
2024 game log 7 games · CLE · 10.9 PPR a game
| Game | Line | Snaps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1vs DAL · D7 | 24/45 169 yds 1 TD 2 INT · 5-39 rush | 100% | 10.7 |
| W2@ JAX · D26 | 22/34 186 yds 0 TD · 5-20-1 rush | 96% | 15.4 |
| W3vs NYG · D14 | 21/37 196 yds 2 TD · 4-26 rush | 97% | 16.4 |
| W4@ LV · D21 | 24/32 176 yds 1 TD 1 INT · 8-32 rush | 100% | 12.2 |
| W5@ WAS · D31 | 15/28 125 yds 1 TD · 3-14 rush | 92% | 8.4 |
| W6@ PHI · D23 | 16/23 168 yds 0 TD · 4-17 rush | 98% | 8.4 |
| W7vs CIN · D25 | 15/17 128 yds 0 TD · 2-0 rush (left hurt) | 39% | 5.1 |
2023 game log 6 games · CLE · 14.5 PPR a game
| Game | Line | Snaps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1vs CIN · D4 | 16/29 154 yds 1 TD 1 INT · 5-45-1 rush | 100% | 20.7 |
| W2@ PIT · D17 | 22/40 235 yds 1 TD 1 INT · 6-22 rush | 100% | 11.6 |
| W3vs TEN · D29 | 27/33 289 yds 2 TD · 4-16 rush | 93% | 21.2 |
| W7@ IND · D25 | 1/5 5 yds 0 TD 1 INT (left hurt) | 16% | -1.8 |
| W9vs ARI · D26 | 19/30 219 yds 2 TD · 3-22 rush | 92% | 19.0 |
| W10@ BAL · D1 | 20/34 213 yds 1 TD 1 INT · 8-37 rush | 99% | 16.2 |
2022 game log 6 games · CLE · 14.3 PPR a game
| Game | Line | Snaps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| W13@ HOU · D3 | 12/22 131 yds 0 TD 1 INT · 7-21 rush | 98% | 5.3 |
| W14@ CIN · D6 | 26/42 276 yds 1 TD 1 INT · 6-33 rush | 99% | 16.3 |
| W15vs BAL · D18 | 18/28 161 yds 1 TD · 6-22 rush | 98% | 12.6 |
| W16vs NO · D17 | 15/31 135 yds 0 TD 1 INT · 3-24-1 rush | 100% | 11.8 |
| W17@ WAS · D18 | 9/18 169 yds 3 TD · 8-31 rush | 98% | 21.9 |
| W18@ PIT · D14 | 19/29 230 yds 2 TD 2 INT · 6-44 rush | 98% | 17.6 |
2020 game log 16 games · HOU · 23.1 PPR a game
| Game | Line | Snaps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1@ KC | 20/32 253 yds 1 TD · 6-27-1 rush | 100% | 20.8 |
| W2vs BAL | 25/36 275 yds 1 TD · 5-17 rush | 100% | 14.7 |
| W3@ PIT | 19/27 264 yds 2 TD · 1-5 rush | 100% | 17.1 |
| W4vs MIN | 20/33 300 yds 2 TD · 5-9 rush | 100% | 20.9 |
| W5vs JAX | 25/35 359 yds 3 TD · 2-25 rush | 100% | 24.9 |
| W6@ TEN | 28/37 335 yds 4 TD · 4-26 rush | 100% | 32.0 |
| W7vs GB | 29/39 309 yds 2 TD · 7-38 rush | 100% | 24.2 |
| W9@ JAX | 19/32 281 yds 2 TD · 10-50 rush | 100% | 24.2 |
| W10@ CLE | 20/30 163 yds 1 TD · 8-36 rush | 100% | 14.1 |
| W11vs NE | 28/37 344 yds 2 TD · 6-36-1 rush | 100% | 31.4 |
| W12@ DET | 17/25 318 yds 4 TD · 8-24 rush | 98% | 33.1 |
| W13vs IND | 26/38 341 yds 0 TD · 7-38-1 rush | 100% | 19.4 |
| W14@ CHI | 21/30 219 yds 1 TD · 7-38 rush | 98% | 16.6 |
| W15@ IND | 33/41 373 yds 2 TD · 6-25 rush | 100% | 23.4 |
| W16vs CIN | 24/33 324 yds 3 TD · 5-38 rush | 100% | 26.8 |
| W17vs TEN | 28/39 365 yds 3 TD · 3-12 rush | 100% | 25.8 |
Health
No injury designation. Not on the Sleeper injury list as of Oct 10 and not on the Week 6 practice report so far.
2026 injury reportofficial, week by week
✓ = not listed. Letters = game status (Q, D, O) or worst practice that week (LP limited, DNP did not practice). Tap a week for the detail.
Historyofficial injury reports since 2020
| Year | Weeks listed | Ruled out | Listed for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3 | 3 | Achilles (3) |
| 2023 | 6 | 2 | right Shoulder (6) |
| 2021 | 17 | 17 | — |
2 games missed 2023–25 (0.50 a season), right Shoulder.
6 report weeks over 1 seasons; recurring: right Shoulder. Risk label: low.
Teammates on the report
Our current notes first, then Sleeper designations. What happens when a starter is ruled out? ›
Value
Market Oct 10Market value on a 0–10,000 scale, through Oct 10, 2026. Faint stretches are estimates between real readings. Gold = peak.
Teal dot = today (1,274). Box = the middle half of outcomes, white line = the median, whiskers = 10th to 90th percentile. QBs about 31 valued near #384 overall: real 1-year moves since 2022, weighted by exact age and market rank (about 14 players' worth).
169.9 overall, QB37. ESPN 169.9 · Underdog 215.3