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Sam Darnold — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 13.85 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 152.4, usage worth 14.9.

29 years old · 8 seasons of experience · 2018 draft class

Updated 2026-08-16 · free, no account, no paywall
Every figure below comes from our database. Where a stat is not held, the row is absent rather than zero.
ADP 152.4
Consensus across 4 books, standard deviation 23.8, 55.2 picks between cheapest and priciest. Cheapest on sleeper, priciest on yahoo.
SLEEPER178.7
ESPN163.1
YAHOO123.5
UNDERDOG142.2
CBS144.4
FFA172

Draft-room facts

Goes aroundRound 13, pick 8 in a 12-team draft
Positional rankQB21
Bye week11
ADP standard deviation23.8 picks

What we project for 2026

Our board has him at 282.2 points, 16.8 per game — 3,919 passing yards, 28.9 passing TDs, 131 rushing yards. That is QB4, 169 overall.

The range runs from a floor of 13.5 points per game to a ceiling of 23, with the median at 16.8. Boom rate 37%, bust rate 20%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.

He goes at 152.4 on consensus and our board has him 169. We rank him 16.6 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.

Our written view

performed as a legitimately good, efficient QB in a strong system in real NFL terms last year, but even in that good real-football season still finished outside fantasy-relevant range specifically because of a near-total lack of rushing production. Combined with the team's own elite defense (similarly reducing the need for high-volume, come-from-behind passing), read as a "good real quarterback, bad fantasy quarterback" archetype almost by structural design.

hold · medium conviction · 2026-08

The offense he plays in, 2026

Seattle Seahawks returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing rb1, oc. Sam Darnold at quarterback, Mike Macdonald as head coach, Brian Fleury calling it. The offense projects to 30.4 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 28.4 rushes.

In: Rashid Shaheed (wr2), Emmanuel Henderson Jr (wr6), Levi Wentz (wr7), Jadarian Price (rb1), Emmanuel Wilson (rb3). Out: Rasheed Shaheed (wr2), Kenneth Walker III (rb1), Zach Charbonett (rb2).

The projected target split across the offense:

Jaxon Smith-Njigba27.3%
Cooper Kupp15.3%
AJ Barner11.9%
Rashid Shaheed10.8%
Jadarian Price9%
Emmanuel Henderson Jr6.2%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

What the offense looks like: High powered offense that SHOULD be ok without OC Klint Kubiak (could possibly be a concern). Capable of putting up 40 points any game.

Key additions: Extended WR Rashid Shaheed on 3 year deal. Signed RB Emmanuel Wilson from Packers in free agency (HIGHLY CAPABLE BACKUP), Drafted RB Jadarian Price in the 1st round from ND.

Key departures: SuperBowl MVP RB Kenneth Walker III left for Chiefs in free agency. OC Klint Kubiak left to become Raiders HC this offseason.

Notes: RB Price round 1 RB. with Charbonnet recovering from torn ACL. Lose OC Kubiak to Raiders. JSN top dynasty asset (ELITE). Shaheed could see expanded role in 2026 with full offseason with team. Charbonnet has never truly broken out & torn ACL places concern on productivity when back from injury. Signed RB Emmanuel Wilson in free agency & he could really hurt Price production early (this is a real concern). Cooper Kupp is dust & totally cooked. Tory Horton could be a break out candidate in 2026. Darnold needs to be rostered in all formats & decent low end QB1 with a high powered offense.

How the volume number was reached: Same QB Sam Darnold returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (28.2 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 30.4 att/g; New OC Brian Fleury — pass rate and tempo may shift.

How the quarterback projection was built

Base case 247.7 PPR points, with a bear case of 129.1 and a bull case of 356, and a comp mean of 239.4. The model puts 35% probability on him beating this and 65% on falling short. Drawn from 20 comparable quarterback seasons.

Comparable seasonWhat he actually scoredDistance
Kirk Cousins 2019306.20.4
Jordan Love 2024265.20.5
Jay Cutler 2010136.30.5
Brock Purdy 2024199.60.6
Sam Darnold 2024283.70.6

Cross-check against the dynasty market: his production ranks in the 41th percentile and his value in the 35th, which the engine reads as in line. Players with a similar production-against-value gap saw dynasty value move -13.4% over the following year, across 81 cases — a dynasty signal, not a 2026 scoring one.

Offensive environment: SEA rates 25 against a league average of 23, 2 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season+0.6 · neutral
Weeks 1–6-0.2 · neutral
Weeks 12–17+1.1 · neutral
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)-9.6 · harder

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

Read the full Sam Darnold study →

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved +28.9% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.8 elite seasons and 3.1 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

PlayerSeasonTheir PPGSimilarityNext year
Jared Goff20231773%+22.3%
Tua Tagovailoa202416.561%-27.8%
Jared Goff202216.757%+33.2%
Baker Mayfield202210.153%+114.9%
Matthew Stafford202413.453%+40.2%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 4 gained value, 1 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

02,0004,000202120222023202420252026
Monthly superflex value, 2020-06 to 2026-07. Down 7% across the series, peaking at 4,925.

The player

Draft capital and athletic profile

Drafted2018, round 1, pick 3 by NYJ
CollegeUSC
Age at draft21
Height6′3″
Weight221 lb
40-yard dash4.85s
Vertical26.5″
Broad jump105″
3-cone6.96s
Shuttle4.4s

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game12.8
Week-to-week variation0.7
Boom rate23.2%
Bust rate33.9%
Games missed per season0.7
Injury historyright Shoulder
Correlation between his posted line and his actual score-0.04

That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.

Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.

The record, season by season

2025 · SEA · 17 games

His best game was Week 5 against TB — 27.64 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 35-38. His worst was Week 13 against MIN at 3.12, on 0 targets, final score 26-0. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 14.5; in the 8 decided by more, 13.1. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 14.9 points per game. He scored 13.85, 5% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1SF13-175.4021400%100%
2PIT31-1715.800020%100%
3NO44-1316.7200020%68%
4ARI23-2016.08012410%100%
5TB35-3827.6400040%100%
6JAX20-122004220%100%
7HOU27-198.6203110%100%
9WAS38-1427.200040%94%
10ARI44-224.9203-210%90%
11LA19-214.26021100%100%
12TEN30-2417.6601-120%100%
13MIN26-03.1200000%96%
14ATL37-922.26032330%87%
15IND18-1611.3404500%100%
16LA38-3719.503720%100%
17CAR27-106.0803210%100%
18SF13-38.8206900%100%

Production

Carries35
Rushing yards95
Touchdowns25
Points per game13.85
Yards per carry2.71

Role

Snap share96.18%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game-0.76

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share1.8%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs0.18

Who else ate

The offense threw it 481 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba35.82%
Cooper Kupp15.38%
A.J. Barner14.95%
Kenneth Walker7.91%
Rashid Shaheed5.71%
Elijah Arroyo5.71%

Blowouts against close games

6 of his 17 games were blowouts, 34.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 13.38 in those and 14.5 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2024 · MIN · 17 games

His best game was Week 14 against ATL — 34.58 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 42-21. His worst was Week 5 against NYJ at 4.26, on 0 targets, final score 23-17. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 7 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 17.5; in the 7 decided by more, 19. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 17.6 points per game. He scored 18.12, 0.8% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1NYG28-614.6203320%100%
2SF23-1719.92053220%100%
3HOU34-723.2400040%97%
4GB31-2920.5071530%100%
5NYJ23-174.26051100%99%
7DET29-3116.26043910%100%
8LA20-3018.203620%100%
9IND21-1319041430%100%
10JAX12-76.44072800%100%
11TEN23-1323.64081830%100%
12CHI30-2721.102-120%97%
13ARI23-2219.6042220%100%
14ATL42-2134.5804750%97%
15CHI30-1211.2400010%100%
16SEA27-2422.94051130%100%
17GB27-2524.7803-330%100%
18DET9-317.64031000%100%

Production

Carries67
Rushing yards212
Touchdowns36
Points per game18.12
Yards per carry3.16

Role

Snap share99.41%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game-0.18

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share10.3%
Goal-line carry share10%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs1.24

Who else ate

The offense threw it 548 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Justin Jefferson30.14%
Jordan Addison19.37%
Aaron Jones12.13%
T.J. Hockenson12.13%
Jalen Nailor8.22%
Josh Oliver5.48%

Blowouts against close games

5 of his 17 games were blowouts, 29.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 18.26 in those and 17.48 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2023 · SF · 10 games

His best game was Week 18 against LA — 17.46 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 20-21. His worst was Week 17 against WAS at -0.2, on 0 targets, final score 27-10. Across 10 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 9 times.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 3.5 points per game. He scored 2.34, 33.2% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1PIT30-7-0.202-200%3%
3NYG30-12-0.101-100%5%
4ARI35-16-0.101-100%2%
5DAL42-10-0.0601-100%15%
10JAX34-3-0.0603-300%21%
13PHI42-19-0.101-100%7%
15ARI45-290.602-200%18%
16BAL19-336.1401910%27%
17WAS27-10-0.202-200%7%
18LA20-2117.46071920%100%

Production

Carries21
Rushing yards15
Touchdowns3
Points per game2.34
Yards per carry0.71

Role

Snap share20.5%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game-0.83

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share0.8%
Goal-line carry share2.5%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs0.43

Who else ate

The offense threw it 491 times. 4 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Brandon Aiyuk23.13%
George Kittle19.82%
Deebo Samuel19.6%
Christian McCaffrey18.28%
Jauan Jennings7.27%
Ray-Ray McCloud3.3%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Brock Purdy900.660%
Sam Darnold1017.460%

Blowouts against close games

7 of his 10 games were blowouts, -3.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged -0.12 in those and 17.46 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2022 · CAR · 6 games

His best game was Week 16 against DET — 21.9 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 37-23. His worst was Week 18 against NO at 0.92, on 0 targets, final score 10-7. Across 6 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 1 time.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 13.2 points per game. He scored 14.39, 8.7% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
12DEN23-1016.8603320%100%
14SEA30-2411.8043010%100%
15PIT16-2413.202210%100%
16DET37-2321.9061920%100%
17TB24-3021.64052030%100%
18NO10-70.92063200%100%

Production

Carries26
Rushing yards106
Touchdowns9
Points per game14.39
Yards per carry4.08

Role

Snap share100%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game-0.67

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share6.6%
Goal-line carry share16.7%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs1.46

Who else ate

The offense threw it 457 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

D.J. Moore27.63%
Terrace Marshall11.01%
Christian McCaffrey10.07%
Shi Smith9.6%
Laviska Shenault Jr.7.49%
Tommy Tremble7.49%

2021 · CAR · 12 games

His best game was Week 4 against DAL — 31.54 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 28-36. His worst was Week 9 against NE at 1.78, on 0 targets, final score 6-24. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 14.3; in the 6 decided by more, 12. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 18.1 points per game. He scored 13.11, 27.4% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1NYJ19-1419.0605-120%100%
2NO26-718.901720%100%
3HOU24-925.26081120%100%
4DAL28-3631.54063540%100%
5PHI18-216.08021010%100%
6MIN28-3415.08044810%100%
7NYG3-252.4800000%70%
8ATL19-1311.76086600%86%
9NE6-241.7803900%100%
16TB6-328.7011100%63%
17NO10-181.9802700%98%
18TB17-4114.66081920%99%

Production

Carries48
Rushing yards222
Touchdowns14
Points per game13.11
Yards per carry4.63

Role

Snap share93%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game0.32

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share11%
Goal-line carry share25%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs2.32

Who else ate

The offense threw it 599 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

D.J. Moore28.35%
Robbie Chosen19.13%
Ameer Abdullah8.52%
Christian McCaffrey7.13%
Chuba Hubbard6.43%
Tommy Tremble6.09%

Blowouts against close games

5 of his 12 games were blowouts, 29.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9.3 in those and 14.25 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2020 · NYJ · 12 games

His best game was Week 4 against DEN — 23.6 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 28-37. His worst was Week 7 against BUF at 0.8, on 0 targets, final score 10-18. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 4 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 13; in the 8 decided by more, 10.3. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 16.6 points per game. He scored 11.17, 32.8% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1BUF17-2711.201610%100%
2SF13-3111.8602710%100%
3IND7-366.72052010%100%
4DEN28-3723.6068410%95%
7BUF10-180.800000%100%
8KC9-357.42042100%100%
12MIA3-204.7802900%100%
13LV28-3120.04032630%100%
14SEA3-405.5801300%100%
15LA23-2014.08051810%100%
16CLE23-1617072020%100%
17NE14-2810.9401310%100%

Production

Carries37
Rushing yards217
Touchdowns11
Points per game11.17
Yards per carry5.86

Role

Snap share99.58%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game1.05

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share1.9%
Goal-line carry share6.3%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs0.44

Who else ate

The offense threw it 499 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Jamison Crowder19.22%
Breshad Perriman12.96%
Braxton Berrios11.88%
Christopher Herndon9.72%
Denzel Mims9.5%
Jeff Smith7.99%

Blowouts against close games

5 of his 12 games were blowouts, 27.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.27 in those and 12.98 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

Ask the Coach about Sam Darnold →
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