Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 20.41 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 104, usage worth 20.4.
30 years old · 9 seasons of experience · 2017 draft class
| SLEEPER | 106.5 |
| ESPN | 109 |
| YAHOO | 97.6 |
| UNDERDOG | 97.1 |
| CBS | 103 |
| FFA | 113 |
| Goes around | Round 9, pick 8 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | QB14 |
| Bye week | 5 |
| ADP standard deviation | 4.9 picks |
Our board has him at 313.3 points, 18.6 per game — 4,223 passing yards, 25.9 passing TDs, 356 rushing yards. That is QB3, 112 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 14.9 points per game to a ceiling of 25.2, with the median at 18.6. Boom rate 35%, bust rate 20%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 104 on consensus and our board has him 112. We rank him 8 picks worse than the room drafts him, so at ADP he is mildly overpriced. That is an objection to the price and not to the player — if he falls past his slot he can be exactly the right pick.
reportedly cleared and fully participating in camp without restrictions, removing one layer of uncertainty. But the team has also publicly signaled intent to scale back his rushing/scrambling rate specifically (his own long-term health, plus a new true bell-cow RB added this offseason) — directly threatening the exact rushing production that drove his big statistical spike two seasons ago. Realistic outlook: a return to very good, but no longer top-3.
buy · medium conviction · 2026-08Kansas City Chiefs returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing rb1, oc. Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, Andy Reid as head coach, Eric Bieniemy calling it. The offense projects to 34 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 25.8 rushes.
In: Justin Fields (qb2), Cyrus Allen (wr5), Andrew Armstrong (wr7), Kenneth Walker III (rb1), Emmett Johnson (rb3), Emari Demercado (rb4). Out: Marquise Brown (wr3), Isiah Pacheco (rb1), Kareem Hunt (rb2).
The projected target split across the offense:
| Rashee Rice | 19.1% |
| Travis Kelce | 13.3% |
| Tyquan Thornton | 12.4% |
| Xavier Worthy | 12.1% |
| Brashard Smith | 7.7% |
| Cyrus Allen | 7.4% |
What the offense looks like: Highly relevant offense to own pieces of. Mahomes needs to return to his MVP form to support WR other than Rice, but Kenneth Walker III may be about to feast in KC if he can stay healthy. Of note, if Walker were to suffer an injury, RB Emmett Johnson has a great opportunity to fill in and be a valuable back.
Key additions: OC Eric Bieniemy retuns to Chiefs as OC. Previously served as OC from 2018 - 2022. Add RB Kenneth Walker III in free agency on massive 3 year deal.
Key departures: Isiah Pacheco left Chiefs for Lions in free agency. RB Kareem Hunt is also likely gone from the team. WR Hollywood Brown also left to the Eagles in free agency. Chiefs lost RT Jawaan Taylor in free agency (mid).
Notes: Rashee Rice is slotted to operate as WR1 & holds high value for 2026 season. Mahomes should be recovered from torn ACL. Kelce is in his final season most likely. Xavier Worthy has struggled to produce, could break out, but not looking great right now. Chiefs sign Kenneth Walker III in free agency (reigning superbowl MVP RB from seahawks) and he is set for monster season. Brashard Smith should operate as receiving back and Emmett Johnson will battle for 3rd string back with Emari Demercado.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Patrick Mahomes returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (34.4 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 34 att/g; New OC Eric Bieniemy — pass rate and tempo may shift.
Base case 282.9 PPR points, with a bear case of 132 and a bull case of 394.1, and a comp mean of 264.2. The model puts 30% probability on him beating this and 70% on falling short. Drawn from 20 comparable quarterback seasons.
| Comparable season | What he actually scored | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton 2018 | 16.7 | 0.3 |
| Kyler Murray 2021 | 200.5 | 0.5 |
| Andrew Luck 2013 | 392.1 | 0.5 |
| Blake Bortles 2015 | 271.1 | 0.5 |
| Aaron Rodgers 2018 | 312.5 | 0.6 |
Cross-check against the dynasty market: his production ranks in the 69th percentile and his value in the 76th, which the engine reads as in line. Players with a similar production-against-value gap saw dynasty value move -13.4% over the following year, across 81 cases — a dynasty signal, not a 2026 scoring one.
Offensive environment: KC rates 24.1 against a league average of 23, 1.1 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -2.5 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | -1.3 · neutral |
| Weeks 12–17 | -5.1 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -4.9 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full Patrick Mahomes study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -5.3% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.8 elite seasons and 3.1 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 2024 | 17.5 | 44% | -24.4% |
| Baker Mayfield | 2024 | 21.5 | 42% | 0% |
| Dak Prescott | 2023 | 20.2 | 42% | +2% |
| Justin Herbert | 2023 | 18 | 41% | +0.1% |
| Josh Allen | 2024 | 23.7 | 38% | +12.8% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 1 lost it and 3 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2017, round 1, pick 10 by KAN |
| College | Texas Tech |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| Height | 6′2″ |
| Weight | 225 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.8s |
| Vertical | 30″ |
| Broad jump | 114″ |
| 3-cone | 6.88s |
| Shuttle | 4.08s |
| Career PPR per game | 20.7 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.4 |
| Boom rate | 7.8% |
| Bust rate | 7.8% |
| Games missed per season | 0.3 |
| Injury history | Ankle |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.08 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 6 against DET — 31.48 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 30-17. His worst was Week 14 against HOU at 6.3, on 1 targets, final score 10-20. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 8 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 19.8; in the 6 decided by more, 21.2. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 20.4 points per game. He scored 20.41, 0.1% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC | 21-27 | 26.02 | 0 | 6 | 57 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | PHI | 17-20 | 22.08 | 0 | 7 | 66 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | NYG | 22-9 | 13.16 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 4 | BAL | 37-20 | 27.3 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 0% | 92% |
| 5 | JAX | 28-31 | 26.72 | 0 | 6 | 60 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 6 | DET | 30-17 | 31.48 | 0 | 10 | 32 | 4 | 0% | 100% |
| 7 | LV | 31-0 | 26.24 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 3 | 0% | 80% |
| 8 | WAS | 28-7 | 22.96 | 0 | 4 | 30 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 9 | BUF | 21-28 | 10.5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 11 | DEN | 19-22 | 13.34 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 12 | IND | 23-20 | 17.08 | 0 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 13 | DAL | 28-31 | 29.44 | 0 | 3 | 30 | 4 | 0% | 100% |
| 14 | HOU | 10-20 | 6.3 | -10 | 7 | 59 | 0 | 3.4% | 100% |
| 15 | LAC | 13-16 | 13.06 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 1 | 0% | 92% |
| Receptions | 1 |
| Targets | 1 |
| Receiving yards | -10 |
| Carries | 64 |
| Rushing yards | 422 |
| Touchdowns | 27 |
| Points per game | 20.41 |
| Yards per target | -10 |
| Catch rate | 100% |
| Yards per carry | 6.59 |
| Snap share | 97.43% |
| Target share | 0.24% |
| Air-yards share | -0.2% |
| WOPR | 0.002 |
| Average depth of target | -8 |
| Yards after catch per reception | -2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -8 |
| Total YAC | -2 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 79.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.18 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 2.08 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 17% |
| Goal-line carry share | 9.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 1.65 |
The offense threw it 584 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Travis Kelce | 19.71% |
| Rashee Rice | 14.23% |
| Marquise Brown | 13.5% |
| Xavier Worthy | 13.32% |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 8.21% |
| Noah Gray | 6.75% |
3 of his 14 games were blowouts, 26.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 25.5 in those and 19.78 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 12 against CAR — 28.76 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 30-27. His worst was Week 7 against SF at 12.06, on 0 targets, final score 28-18. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 0 times. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 18.2; in the 5 decided by more, 16.6. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 18.9 points per game. He scored 17.69, 3.1% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 27-20 | 15.14 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3.7% | 100% |
| 2 | CIN | 26-25 | 12.94 | 0 | 4 | 29 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | ATL | 22-17 | 16.38 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 4 | LAC | 17-10 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 5 | NO | 26-13 | 13.44 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 7 | SF | 28-18 | 12.06 | 0 | 5 | 39 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 8 | LV | 27-20 | 18.18 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 9 | TB | 30-24 | 24.54 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 10 | DEN | 16-14 | 16.54 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 11 | BUF | 21-30 | 15.84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 12 | CAR | 30-27 | 28.76 | 0 | 5 | 60 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 13 | LV | 19-17 | 16.64 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 14 | LAC | 19-17 | 14.1 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 15 | CLE | 21-7 | 15.76 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 89% |
| 16 | HOU | 27-19 | 23.7 | 0 | 5 | 33 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 17 | PIT | 29-10 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| Receptions | 1 |
| Targets | 1 |
| Receiving yards | 2 |
| Carries | 58 |
| Rushing yards | 307 |
| Touchdowns | 28 |
| Points per game | 17.69 |
| Yards per target | 2 |
| Catch rate | 100% |
| Yards per carry | 5.29 |
| Snap share | 99.31% |
| Target share | 0.23% |
| Air-yards share | -0.04% |
| WOPR | 0.003 |
| Average depth of target | -1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -1 |
| Total YAC | 3 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 79.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.03 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 1.52 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 10.6% |
| Goal-line carry share | 6.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 1.36 |
The offense threw it 600 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Travis Kelce | 23.37% |
| Xavier Worthy | 17.22% |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 10.37% |
| Noah Gray | 8.61% |
| Samaje Perine | 6.15% |
| Kareem Hunt | 5.62% |
1 of his 16 games were blowouts, 9.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 26 in those and 18.17 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 7 against LAC — 33.86 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 31-17. His worst was Week 8 against DEN at 5.6, on 0 targets, final score 9-24. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 16.1; in the 6 decided by more, 19.8. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 19.5 points per game. He scored 17.51, 8.2% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | 20-21 | 19.54 | 0 | 6 | 45 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | JAX | 17-9 | 21.2 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | CHI | 41-10 | 25.68 | 0 | 3 | 28 | 3 | 0% | 73% |
| 4 | NYJ | 23-20 | 13.22 | 0 | 7 | 51 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 5 | MIN | 27-20 | 19.24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 6 | DEN | 19-8 | 17.34 | 0 | 6 | 31 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 7 | LAC | 31-17 | 33.86 | 0 | 4 | 29 | 4 | 0% | 100% |
| 8 | DEN | 9-24 | 5.6 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 9 | MIA | 21-14 | 15.8 | 0 | 6 | 24 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 11 | PHI | 17-21 | 16.88 | 0 | 6 | 38 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 12 | LV | 31-17 | 20.82 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 13 | GB | 19-27 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 14 | BUF | 17-20 | 13.64 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 15 | NE | 27-17 | 15.7 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 16 | LV | 14-20 | 16.7 | 0 | 10 | 53 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 17 | CIN | 25-17 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| Carries | 75 |
| Rushing yards | 389 |
| Touchdowns | 27 |
| Points per game | 17.51 |
| Yards per carry | 5.19 |
| Snap share | 98.31% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.83 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 7.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.41 |
The offense threw it 634 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Travis Kelce | 20.23% |
| Rashee Rice | 17.06% |
| Justin Watson | 8.86% |
| Isiah Pacheco | 8.19% |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 7.02% |
| Noah Gray | 6.86% |
1 of his 16 games were blowouts, 9.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 25.68 in those and 16.12 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 1 against ARI — 34.9 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 44-21. His worst was Week 18 against LV at 14.98, on 0 targets, final score 31-13. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 10 times and came in under 8 points 0 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 24.4; in the 7 decided by more, 24.8. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 18.8 points per game. He scored 24.55, 27.1% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI | 44-21 | 34.9 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0% | 93% |
| 2 | LAC | 27-24 | 17.3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | IND | 17-20 | 17.08 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 4 | TB | 41-31 | 23.36 | 0 | 4 | 34 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 5 | LV | 30-29 | 30.48 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 4 | 0% | 100% |
| 6 | BUF | 20-24 | 19.62 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 7 | SF | 44-23 | 26.92 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 91% |
| 9 | TEN | 20-17 | 34.14 | 0 | 6 | 63 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 10 | JAX | 27-17 | 31.14 | 0 | 7 | 39 | 4 | 0% | 100% |
| 11 | LAC | 30-27 | 27.46 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 12 | LA | 26-10 | 18.4 | 0 | 4 | 36 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 13 | CIN | 24-27 | 19.82 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 14 | DEN | 34-28 | 19.78 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 15 | HOU | 30-24 | 32.74 | 0 | 5 | 33 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 16 | SEA | 24-10 | 23.76 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 17 | DEN | 27-24 | 25.52 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 2.4% | 100% |
| 18 | LV | 31-13 | 14.98 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 1 | 0% | 88% |
| Receptions | 1 |
| Targets | 1 |
| Receiving yards | 6 |
| Carries | 61 |
| Rushing yards | 358 |
| Touchdowns | 45 |
| Points per game | 24.55 |
| Yards per target | 6 |
| Catch rate | 100% |
| Yards per carry | 5.87 |
| Snap share | 98.35% |
| Target share | 0.14% |
| Air-yards share | -0.17% |
| WOPR | 0.001 |
| Average depth of target | -9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 15 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -9 |
| Total YAC | 15 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 91.7 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.02 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 1.43 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 14.1% |
| Goal-line carry share | 12.9% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 2.34 |
The offense threw it 650 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Travis Kelce | 24.92% |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 16.56% |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 13.28% |
| Jerick McKinnon | 11.64% |
| Justin Watson | 5.57% |
| Mecole Hardman | 5.57% |
3 of his 17 games were blowouts, 18.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 25.6 in those and 24.39 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 10 against LV — 36.24 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 41-14. His worst was Week 11 against DAL at 7.5, on 0 targets, final score 19-9. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 11 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 22.7; in the 9 decided by more, 20. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 20.3 points per game. He scored 21.27, 13.1% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLE | 33-29 | 33.28 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | BAL | 35-36 | 24.02 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | LAC | 24-30 | 22.9 | 0 | 4 | 45 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 4 | PHI | 42-30 | 31.72 | 0 | 5 | 26 | 5 | 0% | 100% |
| 5 | BUF | 20-38 | 18.98 | 0 | 8 | 61 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 6 | WAS | 31-13 | 22.98 | 0 | 3 | 31 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 7 | TEN | 3-27 | 7.74 | 0 | 6 | 35 | 0 | 0% | 75% |
| 8 | NYG | 20-17 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 9 | GB | 13-7 | 10.44 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 10 | LV | 41-14 | 36.24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0% | 96% |
| 11 | DAL | 19-9 | 7.5 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 13 | DEN | 22-9 | 12.56 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 14 | LV | 48-9 | 20.32 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 2 | 0% | 94% |
| 15 | LAC | 34-28 | 29.6 | 0 | 3 | 32 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 16 | PIT | 36-10 | 22.32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 91% |
| 17 | CIN | 31-34 | 20.86 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 18 | DEN | 28-24 | 26.2 | 0 | 9 | 54 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| Carries | 66 |
| Rushing yards | 381 |
| Touchdowns | 39 |
| Points per game | 21.27 |
| Yards per carry | 5.77 |
| Snap share | 97.41% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.84 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 17% |
| Goal-line carry share | 3.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 1.62 |
The offense threw it 674 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Tyreek Hill | 25.12% |
| Travis Kelce | 21.17% |
| Mecole Hardman | 13.11% |
| Byron Pringle | 9.48% |
| Darrel Williams | 9% |
| Demarcus Robinson | 6.48% |
6 of his 17 games were blowouts, 35.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 21.43 in those and 22.66 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 3 against BAL — 40 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 34-20. His worst was Week 7 against DEN at 12, on 0 targets, final score 43-16. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 11 times and came in under 8 points 0 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 24.9; in the 6 decided by more, 25. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 21.6 points per game. He scored 24.96, 11% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | 34-20 | 20.44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | LAC | 23-20 | 27.48 | 0 | 6 | 54 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | BAL | 34-20 | 40 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 5 | 0% | 100% |
| 4 | NE | 26-10 | 20.24 | 0 | 8 | 28 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 5 | LV | 32-40 | 29.7 | 0 | 6 | 21 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 6 | BUF | 26-17 | 20.6 | 0 | 10 | 36 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 7 | DEN | 43-16 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 80% |
| 8 | NYJ | 35-9 | 36.64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0% | 82% |
| 9 | CAR | 33-31 | 31.48 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 0% | 100% |
| 11 | LV | 35-31 | 21.52 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 12 | TB | 27-24 | 31.28 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 3 | 2.2% | 100% |
| 13 | DEN | 22-16 | 19.32 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 14 | MIA | 33-27 | 18.62 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 15 | NO | 32-29 | 25.86 | 0 | 7 | 37 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 16 | ATL | 17-14 | 19.22 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 2.4% | 100% |
| Targets | 2 |
| Carries | 62 |
| Rushing yards | 308 |
| Touchdowns | 40 |
| Points per game | 24.96 |
| Yards per target | 0 |
| Catch rate | 0% |
| Yards per carry | 4.97 |
| Snap share | 97.47% |
| Target share | 0.31% |
| Air-yards share | 0.47% |
| WOPR | 0.007 |
| Average depth of target | 12.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 0 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 0 |
| Total YAC | 0 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.16 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 1.17 |
| Red-zone targets | 1 |
| Red-zone target share | 0.9% |
| End-zone target share | 2.8% |
| Red-zone carry share | 14.5% |
| Goal-line carry share | 13.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.51 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.51 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 2.01 |
The offense threw it 629 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Travis Kelce | 23.85% |
| Tyreek Hill | 22.2% |
| Mecole Hardman | 10.2% |
| Demarcus Robinson | 9.7% |
| Sammy Watkins | 9.05% |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 8.88% |
2 of his 15 games were blowouts, 13% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 24.32 in those and 24.94 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
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