Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 16 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 138.8, usage worth 17.5.
31 years old · 8 seasons of experience · 2018 draft class
| SLEEPER | 146.5 |
| ESPN | 149.3 |
| YAHOO | 127.3 |
| UNDERDOG | 121 |
| CBS | 132 |
| FFA | 127 |
| Goes around | Round 12, pick 7 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | QB17 |
| Bye week | 10 |
| ADP standard deviation | 10.8 picks |
Our board has him at 309.1 points, 18.4 per game — 4,036 passing yards, 28.9 passing TDs, 351 rushing yards. That is QB4, 126 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 14.8 points per game to a ceiling of 25, with the median at 18.4. Boom rate 36%, bust rate 20%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 138.8 on consensus and our board has him 126. We rank him 12.8 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
last year's numbers were dragged down by a genuinely banged-up offensive line and a receiving corps missing pieces for real stretches, not a decline in his own play. Specifically praised for a bold, downfield-throwing style that fits fantasy scoring even when the win-loss record isn't great — last year's overall ranking undersells what a full-health bounce-back could look like.
buy · medium conviction · 2026-08Tampa Bay Buccaneers returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1, oc. Baker Mayfield at quarterback, Todd Bowles as head coach, Zac Robinson calling it. The offense projects to 33.1 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 27.2 rushes.
In: Ted Hurst (wr5), David Sills V (wr7), Kenneth Gainwell (rb2). Out: Mike Evans (wr1), Rachaad White (rb2), Ko Kieft (te2).
The projected target split across the offense:
| Emeka Egbuka | 20.2% |
| Jalen McMillan | 14.1% |
| Chris Godwin | 13% |
| Cade Otton | 11.8% |
| Tez Johnson | 10.8% |
| Bucky Irving | 7.7% |
What the offense looks like: Baker Mayfield is likely the QB of the future for Tampa & they are actively working to extend him. At its peak, it is a high powered offense that you want to own pieces of. This WR room has a void to fill with the departure of future HOF WR Mike Evans. Godwin is aging, & Egbuka COULD become a true WR1. OR McMillan, Johnson, or Hurst could break out and establish themselves as low end WR2/WR3 types. All of them can't win, but someone will. This RB room is confusing and Tampa has recently run a committee. Unclear if that is because Bucky was hurt in 2025 but he didnt have a single carry inside the 5 yard line the entire season. This makes me think Kenneth Gainwell will see significantly more playing time than many people realize. Sean Tucker MAY end up keeping the goalline role as well. We will find out.
Key additions: RB Kenneth Gainwell signed 2 year deal following IMPRESSIVE season in Pittsburgh as their RB2. Drafted WR Ted Hurst in the 3rd round. Extended TE Cade Otton. Hired new OC Zac Robinson from ATL.
Key departures: WR Mike Evans left to 49ers in free agency after entire career with Bucs. RB Rachaad White left to Commanders in free agency (RB2 and filled in when Irving was injured).
Notes: Emeka Egbuka is primed for a MASSIVE breakout if Baker Mayfield has strong 2026 season. Mike Evans left team in free agency for 49ers, opening up opportunity for Jalen McMillan & Tez Johnson & Ted Hurst 3rd round draft pick (young & productive WR). Chris Godwin aging & struggles to produce but could have decent low end WR2/WR3 role over next few years. Bucs signed Kenneth Gainwell in free agency who was HIGHLY productive in Pittsburgh. Strong concern for Bucky Irving owners. We will have to see how the RB split carries. Will get a better idea through the summer and camp. Worth note, if the Bucs do not perform well in 2026, Todd Bowles is going to get fired. Expect his best product or he's done.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Baker Mayfield returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (32.8 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.1 att/g; New OC Zac Robinson — pass rate and tempo may shift.
Base case 171.8 PPR points, with a bear case of 103 and a bull case of 303.3, and a comp mean of 183.3. The model puts 30% probability on him beating this and 70% on falling short. Drawn from 20 comparable quarterback seasons.
| Comparable season | What he actually scored | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton 2012 | 302 | 0.2 |
| Carson Wentz 2021 | 112.8 | 0.3 |
| Mark Sanchez 2011 | 118.1 | 0.4 |
| Sam Bradford 2012 | 118.6 | 0.4 |
| Joe Flacco 2010 | 239.3 | 0.4 |
Cross-check against the dynasty market: his production ranks in the 21th percentile and his value in the 48th, which the engine reads as above production. Players with a similar production-against-value gap saw dynasty value move -19.6% over the following year, across 24 cases — a dynasty signal, not a 2026 scoring one.
Offensive environment: TB rates 23 against a league average of 23, exactly at it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -0.6 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | +1.3 · neutral |
| Weeks 12–17 | -5.1 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -3.7 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2 | P.J. Walker | +9 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -15% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.8 elite seasons and 3.1 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 2024 | 15.7 | 55% | -68.2% |
| Jared Goff | 2023 | 17 | 54% | +22.3% |
| Dak Prescott | 2024 | 14.6 | 53% | +21.1% |
| Patrick Mahomes | 2023 | 17.5 | 52% | -12.8% |
| Derek Carr | 2024 | 15.1 | 52% | -53.1% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2018, round 1, pick 1 by CLE |
| College | Oklahoma |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| Height | 6′1″ |
| Weight | 215 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.84s |
| Vertical | 29″ |
| Broad jump | 111″ |
| 3-cone | 7s |
| Shuttle | 4.28s |
| Career PPR per game | 15.6 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.5 |
| Boom rate | 16% |
| Bust rate | 17.3% |
| Games missed per season | 0.5 |
| Injury history | left Shoulder, Ankle |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | -0.04 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 5 against SEA — 26.66 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 38-35. His worst was Week 12 against LA at 3.54, on 0 targets, final score 7-34. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 12 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 18.1; in the 5 decided by more, 11. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 17.5 points per game. He scored 16, 8.8% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL | 23-20 | 22.58 | 0 | 5 | 39 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | HOU | 20-19 | 19.9 | 0 | 3 | 33 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | NYJ | 29-27 | 17.72 | 0 | 4 | 44 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 4 | PHI | 25-31 | 18.86 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 5 | SEA | 38-35 | 26.66 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 6 | SF | 30-19 | 19.64 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 7 | DET | 9-24 | 11.12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 99% |
| 8 | NO | 23-3 | 4.08 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 97% |
| 10 | NE | 23-28 | 22.92 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 11 | BUF | 32-44 | 16.82 | 0 | 5 | 39 | 2 | 0% | 99% |
| 12 | LA | 7-34 | 3.54 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 1 | 0% | 56% |
| 13 | ARI | 20-17 | 14.46 | 0 | 6 | 27 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 14 | NO | 20-24 | 11.08 | 0 | 6 | 42 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 15 | ATL | 28-29 | 19.18 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 16 | CAR | 20-23 | 12.7 | 0 | 4 | 49 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 17 | MIA | 17-20 | 17.44 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 18 | CAR | 16-14 | 13.22 | 0 | 4 | 31 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| Carries | 55 |
| Rushing yards | 382 |
| Touchdowns | 27 |
| Points per game | 16 |
| Yards per carry | 6.95 |
| Snap share | 97.12% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 2.1 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 6.3% |
| Goal-line carry share | 5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.53 |
The offense threw it 558 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Emeka Egbuka | 23.52% |
| Cade Otton | 15% |
| Mike Evans | 11.48% |
| Sterling Shepard | 9.81% |
| Chris Godwin | 9.44% |
| Rachaad White | 8.33% |
2 of his 17 games were blowouts, 2.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3.81 in those and 18.06 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 17 against CAR — 34.56 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 48-14. His worst was Week 3 against DEN at 8.52, on 0 targets, final score 7-26. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 10 times and came in under 8 points 0 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 18.2; in the 9 decided by more, 24.5. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 17.5 points per game. He scored 21.52, 21% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WAS | 37-20 | 29.66 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 97% |
| 2 | DET | 20-16 | 18.8 | 0 | 5 | 34 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | DEN | 7-26 | 8.52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 4 | PHI | 33-16 | 28.88 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 5 | ATL | 30-36 | 23.4 | 0 | 6 | 42 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 6 | NO | 51-27 | 25.9 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 4 | 0% | 100% |
| 7 | BAL | 31-41 | 27 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 8 | ATL | 26-31 | 22.3 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 9 | KC | 24-30 | 18 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 10 | SF | 20-23 | 8.94 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 12 | NYG | 30-7 | 18.66 | 0 | 4 | 29 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 13 | CAR | 26-23 | 10.2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0% | 98% |
| 14 | LV | 28-13 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 15 | LAC | 40-17 | 28.02 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 94% |
| 16 | DAL | 24-26 | 22.32 | 0 | 3 | 42 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 17 | CAR | 48-14 | 34.56 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0% | 86% |
| 18 | NO | 27-19 | 21.64 | 0 | 9 | 68 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| Carries | 60 |
| Rushing yards | 378 |
| Touchdowns | 44 |
| Points per game | 21.52 |
| Yards per carry | 6.3 |
| Snap share | 98.53% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.4 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 8.8% |
| Goal-line carry share | 3.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.86 |
The offense threw it 571 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Mike Evans | 19.54% |
| Cade Otton | 15.45% |
| Chris Godwin | 11.01% |
| Jalen McMillan | 10.3% |
| Rachaad White | 10.12% |
| Bucky Irving | 9.24% |
7 of his 17 games were blowouts, 47.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 24.89 in those and 18.2 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 15 against GB — 29.04 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 34-20. His worst was Week 18 against CAR at 6.18, on 0 targets, final score 9-0. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 16.6; in the 10 decided by more, 15.8. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 17 points per game. He scored 16.12, 0.6% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 20-17 | 16.02 | 0 | 8 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | CHI | 27-17 | 18.38 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | PHI | 11-25 | 10.04 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 4 | NO | 26-9 | 22.94 | 0 | 8 | 31 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 6 | DET | 6-20 | 6.84 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 7 | ATL | 13-16 | 16.2 | 0 | 3 | 32 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 8 | BUF | 18-24 | 21.38 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 9 | HOU | 37-39 | 19 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 10 | TEN | 20-6 | 18.32 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 2 | 0% | 98% |
| 11 | SF | 14-27 | 10.34 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 12 | IND | 20-27 | 13.36 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 97% |
| 13 | CAR | 21-18 | 9.88 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 14 | ATL | 29-25 | 20.06 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 15 | GB | 34-20 | 29.04 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 4 | 0% | 100% |
| 16 | JAX | 30-12 | 19.82 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 17 | NO | 13-23 | 16.26 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 18 | CAR | 9-0 | 6.18 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| Carries | 62 |
| Rushing yards | 163 |
| Touchdowns | 29 |
| Points per game | 16.12 |
| Yards per carry | 2.63 |
| Snap share | 99.71% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.85 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 14.3% |
| Goal-line carry share | 20% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 1.67 |
The offense threw it 568 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Mike Evans | 24.73% |
| Chris Godwin | 23.64% |
| Rachaad White | 12.73% |
| Trey Palmer | 12.36% |
| Cade Otton | 12.18% |
| Deven Thompkins | 4.55% |
2 of his 17 games were blowouts, 15.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 21.38 in those and 16.56 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 1 against CLE — 18 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 24-26. His worst was Week 17 against LAC at 4.08, on 0 targets, final score 10-31. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 12.3; in the 7 decided by more, 8.5. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 13.9 points per game. He scored 10.12, 27.3% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLE | 24-26 | 18 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | NYG | 16-19 | 13.3 | 0 | 6 | 35 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | NO | 22-14 | 10.7 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 4 | ARI | 16-26 | 5.88 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 5 | SF | 15-37 | 6.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 87% |
| 9 | CIN | 21-42 | 14.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 63% |
| 11 | BAL | 3-13 | 5.04 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 14 | LV | 17-16 | 14.2 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 0% | 95% |
| 15 | GB | 12-24 | 6.54 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 16 | DEN | 51-14 | 17.4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0% | 94% |
| 17 | LAC | 10-31 | 4.08 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 18 | SEA | 16-19 | 5.48 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| Carries | 31 |
| Rushing yards | 89 |
| Touchdowns | 11 |
| Points per game | 10.12 |
| Yards per carry | 2.87 |
| Snap share | 94.92% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.59 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 7.9% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.41 |
The offense threw it 457 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| D.J. Moore | 27.63% |
| Terrace Marshall | 11.01% |
| Christian McCaffrey | 10.07% |
| Shi Smith | 9.6% |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 7.49% |
| Tommy Tremble | 7.49% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 7 | 0 | 10.53 | — | 0% |
| Sam Darnold | 5 | 0 | 9.54 | — | 0% |
4 of his 12 games were blowouts, 34.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 10.57 in those and 12.34 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 5 against LAC — 23 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 42-47. His worst was Week 10 against NE at 4.92, on 0 targets, final score 7-45. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 12.5; in the 6 decided by more, 13.5. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 15.3 points per game. He scored 12.92, 15.9% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | 29-33 | 12.64 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | HOU | 31-21 | 17.52 | 0 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | CHI | 26-6 | 16.94 | 0 | 4 | 31 | 1 | 0% | 94% |
| 4 | MIN | 14-7 | 9.3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 5 | LAC | 42-47 | 23 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 6 | ARI | 14-37 | 12.16 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 93% |
| 8 | PIT | 10-15 | 9.5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 9 | CIN | 41-16 | 16.72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 94% |
| 10 | NE | 7-45 | 4.92 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 61% |
| 11 | DET | 13-10 | 7.94 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 12 | BAL | 10-16 | 12.28 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 14 | BAL | 24-22 | 15 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 97% |
| 16 | GB | 22-24 | 9.98 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 17 | PIT | 14-26 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| Receiving yards | 11 |
| Carries | 37 |
| Rushing yards | 134 |
| Touchdowns | 18 |
| Points per game | 12.92 |
| Yards per carry | 3.62 |
| Snap share | 95.64% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.44 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 4.4% |
| Goal-line carry share | 4.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.58 |
The offense threw it 520 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Jarvis Landry | 17.65% |
| Austin Hooper | 12.37% |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 11.76% |
| David Njoku | 10.75% |
| Rashard Higgins | 9.53% |
| Odell Beckham | 6.9% |
4 of his 14 games were blowouts, 28.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 12.69 in those and 12.46 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 14 against BAL — 30.02 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 42-47. His worst was Week 6 against PIT at 5.26, on 0 targets, final score 7-38. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 17.7; in the 7 decided by more, 12.7. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 17.2 points per game. He scored 15.54, 8.6% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 6-38 | 9.86 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | CIN | 35-30 | 15.26 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | WAS | 34-20 | 14.34 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 4 | DAL | 49-38 | 15.2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 99% |
| 5 | IND | 32-23 | 15.58 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 6 | PIT | 7-38 | 5.26 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 74% |
| 7 | CIN | 37-34 | 29.78 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 5 | 0% | 100% |
| 8 | LV | 6-16 | 7.78 | 0 | 6 | 29 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 10 | HOU | 10-7 | 5.38 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 11 | PHI | 22-17 | 7.06 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 12 | JAX | 27-25 | 18.42 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 13 | TEN | 41-35 | 29.46 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3.1% | 99% |
| 14 | BAL | 42-47 | 30.02 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 3 | 0% | 99% |
| 15 | NYG | 20-6 | 20.98 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 16 | NYJ | 16-23 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 17 | PIT | 24-22 | 16.24 | 0 | 6 | 44 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| Receptions | 1 |
| Targets | 1 |
| Receiving yards | 6 |
| Carries | 54 |
| Rushing yards | 165 |
| Touchdowns | 27 |
| Points per game | 15.54 |
| Yards per target | 6 |
| Catch rate | 100% |
| Yards per carry | 3.06 |
| Snap share | 98.19% |
| Target share | 0.19% |
| Air-yards share | 0.15% |
| WOPR | 0.004 |
| RACR | 0.075 |
| Average depth of target | 5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 5 |
| Total YAC | 1 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 91.7 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.11 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.44 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 9.8% |
| Goal-line carry share | 3.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 1.42 |
The offense threw it 501 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Jarvis Landry | 21.96% |
| Austin Hooper | 15.22% |
| Rashard Higgins | 11.3% |
| Kareem Hunt | 11.09% |
| Odell Beckham | 9.35% |
| Harrison Bryant | 8.26% |
2 of his 16 games were blowouts, 6.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.56 in those and 17.74 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
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